I start this essay with the notion.....elections have consequences.
Back in the spring of 2016, Saxony-Anhalt (one of Germany's sixteen states) had a state election. Migration and asylum had affected the public perception. The AfD Party came in second place (24-percent, a healthy chunk of votes). The CDU Party (Merkel's group) was able to win but marginally (30-percent).
The CDU had to partner up, and the end-result was a combination that was troublesome. They would partner with the SPD and Green parties. Together, they pulled around 16-percent of the state vote. Usually, coalitions work in a healthy way, as long as you keep it to one 'master-party' and one 'junior-party'. Once you involve a third party....the fundamental agreement gets tossed around and put into a problem area.
Well....this week, an event came up and the CDU is shaking its head over the direction that the SPD/Green partners want to go.....with the coalition government. The subject came up to allow Islamic education into the public school system of Saxony-Anhalt.
So some basic background. For those who aren't into geography....Saxony-Anhalt is a state that existed out of the old DDR (East Germany) days. It lies about 50 km west of Berlin. Big cities of the state? Halle and Magdeburg are probably the two that you might recognize. Economically, it's a state which hasn't really seen a lot of success since the wall came down....although Germany has poured billions into the infrastructure and rebuilt most of the roads and bridges. Politically, there's a fair amount of negativity about immigrants and foreigners. Number of Muslims in the state? Germany doesn't track that kind of number (for obvious reasons), and anyone suggesting a number....is just taking a educated guess.
In a normal school system....around the 7th to 9th grade.....there is a class mandated in religion. Typically, there's the Catholic group and the Lutheran (my term) group. Part of this class effort is ethics and morals. Could a Catholic kid be in the Lutheran group or vice-versa? Yes.
So this effort by the SPD and Green parties was to convince the CDU to agree, and go the next step.....allowing Islamic religious instruction within the schools. The CDU? The idea is being slow-balled, and the party prefers to avoid this topic.
Some problems along the way? Well....this is part of the landscape. You have to have qualified instructors (they typically aren't part of the education sector). Since this is only one structured period (60 to 75 minutes) per week....it's typically a part-time instructor. If you did find qualified instructors for Islamic classes, is this guy attached to some fundamentalist agenda or Salifistian behavior (hard-line conservative)? So just saying you agree to have classes....doesn't really come to resolve basic issues of who is instructing.
Then you come to the 2021 problem. In the spring of 2021, there's another state election. The CDU basically won with six points to spare in 2016 over the AfD. It's possible that this Islamic instruction discussion could trigger another three or four percent of the public to question this direction, and bring the AfD Party (anti-migrants) very close to winning an election.
Even if this occurred (say a 2021 election with the AfD as a winner)....is a coalition government possible? No. You would likely end up with a weaker CDU coalition group....marginally partnered up with the weaker SPD and Green Party.
A way to just skip this subject? Not really. In the minds of the SPD and Green agenda folks.....they need to 'educate' the public to some degree of acceptance. Amusingly.....the AfD folks tend to believe 'educating' the public to their stance is important.
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