Saturday, February 9, 2019

The Shortfall Story

I sat and watched a short piece this morning on N-TV news (the German version of CNN).  There's an interesting political event coming up next week in Germany....on Wednesday.  It might be worth watching.

Opposition parties of the Bundestag have the right to ask questions and demand a formal answer.  So the Green Party stood up and asked the Finance Minister (Scholz, SPD) to comment about the budget shortfall for 2019. 

In the past two weeks, Scholz commented in a public setting that the German economy is slowing down, and tax revenues are expected to fall.  Missing in the budget?  Around five to twenty-five billion Euro (the variations come from different angles, and I suspect it's best-case versus worst case).

Adding to this episode and yet to be fully explained to the public....someone has to help make up the budget loss to the EU as the UK does BREXIT.  Some speculation has suggested that for at least two years, around seven to eight billion Euro per year, has to come from Germany alone (mostly because the EU can't refine their budget process and just cut budgets).

If there is a big chunk of money missing?  All this chatter about fixing the pension problem (guaranteeing everyone 900 Euro a month minimum), and upgrading welfare pay to a new program (adding billions)....will just sink into a pit. 

Here's the one other thing which N-TV mentioned....from the FDP Party, they are talking about a shortfall of EIGHTY billion Euro.  Their business experts and taxation revenue analysts, are discussing a hefty problem and a dismal image by the end of 2019.  If this were to occur, there's some type of minor recession that would unfold and really put things into a difficult outcome.

So watching Wednesday night news in Germany might prove to be interesting. 

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