This morning, I was browsing through the German news and came to this one item from Focus.....which discussed the Fridays for the Future teenagers here in Germany. It's a short piece but it suggests a trend.
RTL (commercial TV network) went out and polled several different groups of young people (some were in student category....some were apprentice-level young people).
Asked if they'd participated in Fridays for the Future....one in three students said 'yes'. There's a second group of almost equal size who said that they might participate in the future.
From the apprentice-level? It was roughly one in nine who'd participated in the Friday action. Around one-third of the apprentice young people could see some participation in the future.
Why the difference? I think the apprentice kids are mostly older and dedicated to their apprentice schedule. Also, the majority of these kids have to put in some hours at a business, and the boss won't accept skipping out on them.
But there is one curious apprentice-level statistic....roughly six out of ten kids say they have zero interest in the movement. From the apprentice crowd (the older kids), it's a good bit less (at 31-percent for Greens).
Serious problems? If you were associated with the SPD Party, it's a significant problem in the next generation. You could be permanently stuck at the 10 to 15 percent level.....with a lot of former SPD voters siding with the Greens in the future.
Is the demonstration business still an urban thing mostly? No one asks that question and no one seems to care. You do see sizable demonstrations on Friday, but it's mostly all highly urbanized areas.
So all of this leading to a political landscape change? More or less.
Monday, September 30, 2019
AfD's Third 'Hype'
In Germany, the AfD Party is noted for two significant stances. Immigration and the Euro. They may say they've got twenty-five positions, but if you ask the general public.....it's strictly anti-immigration and anti-Euro.
So this third position is coming out.....countering the Merkel climate change and solution business. It's a curious position to take.
So the AfD is staking out this position that these solutions and billion-Euro packages by the German government (supported by the CDU, the SPD, and to some extent the Greens).....well, no one can say with any reliability or statistical data, that these funds or regulations are achieving anything. So the AfD is going to stake a position that if you spend money and nothing is changing or improving....then you are simply committing a fraud.
It's an interesting position to take. The 40-billion Euro 'stake' that was prepared two weeks ago (for four years)? No one has said in a clear fashion how it'll be used. Some might go to more charging stations for battery cars....some might go to bike trails....some might go to research grants. Does any of this achieve an improvement in measurable numbers?
There is chatter about this massive Frankfurt to Darmstadt bike 'autobahn' being constructed, and some people float numbers that forty-thousand people per day might be using the 'bikebahn'. But it's mostly all chatter, without any factual evidence.
Using the AfD position....if you can't show an improvement in the climate numbers can occur.....it would be illogical to spend the money.
So this will lead back around to criticism of various parties in the Bundestag, and how wasteful amounts of money go to fake solutions tied to climate change. Another point or two going up? Maybe, but this is a long-term position and just starting out.
A good example, if you used the US 'bucket' of wasteful funding....the $535-million loan deal to what would be eventually a bankrupt funding package for Solyndria. That money just flushed itself down a tube, and nothing to show for the lost money. Yes, it was a green project and everyone felt hyped-up for it, but it'd be something that AfD would have identified as a worthless project and dump criticism upon people who fund it.
So this third position is coming out.....countering the Merkel climate change and solution business. It's a curious position to take.
So the AfD is staking out this position that these solutions and billion-Euro packages by the German government (supported by the CDU, the SPD, and to some extent the Greens).....well, no one can say with any reliability or statistical data, that these funds or regulations are achieving anything. So the AfD is going to stake a position that if you spend money and nothing is changing or improving....then you are simply committing a fraud.
It's an interesting position to take. The 40-billion Euro 'stake' that was prepared two weeks ago (for four years)? No one has said in a clear fashion how it'll be used. Some might go to more charging stations for battery cars....some might go to bike trails....some might go to research grants. Does any of this achieve an improvement in measurable numbers?
There is chatter about this massive Frankfurt to Darmstadt bike 'autobahn' being constructed, and some people float numbers that forty-thousand people per day might be using the 'bikebahn'. But it's mostly all chatter, without any factual evidence.
Using the AfD position....if you can't show an improvement in the climate numbers can occur.....it would be illogical to spend the money.
So this will lead back around to criticism of various parties in the Bundestag, and how wasteful amounts of money go to fake solutions tied to climate change. Another point or two going up? Maybe, but this is a long-term position and just starting out.
A good example, if you used the US 'bucket' of wasteful funding....the $535-million loan deal to what would be eventually a bankrupt funding package for Solyndria. That money just flushed itself down a tube, and nothing to show for the lost money. Yes, it was a green project and everyone felt hyped-up for it, but it'd be something that AfD would have identified as a worthless project and dump criticism upon people who fund it.
Explaining the Impeachment Chatter to a German
Germans have begun to have an interest in the impeachment talk. One could make this a 70-page blog on every single detail, but I'll try to limit this to twelve observations:
1. There is this unique feature in the Constitution which allows for impeachment of a federal official. The basic charges available? Bribery, treason, high crimes, and misdemeanors.
2. Past use? 1866 with President Johnson (failed impeachment), attempted use in 1974 with the House committee having prepared charges on President Johnson (he resigned before he proceed on), and in 1998 with President Clinton (failed impeachment).
3. It is a three-step process. A House committee would have hearings and gather evidence. It would be voted upon in the committee and proceed to a House vote. Second step involves the House voting to push the paperwork to the Senate, which requires only a simple majority (50-percent plus one). Third step involves a Senate hearing, and this ends with a vote....requiring a super-majority (66 Senators) to convict (out of 100 total).
4. Since the early 60s, how many Republican Presidents have been threatened with impeachment? All of them, except Ford. Continual threat but never executing the impeachment process? This is part of the drama.
5. Who heads the Senate hearing? The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court basically shuts down in this period.
6. Rules? There's simply a very limited number of rules. There's probably enough to fill one single page.
7. This super-majority preventing conviction? Well, this is the amusing part of the story. In this case currently, the Democrats can only count on 47 votes. There's two independent Senators, and the Republicans have the majority. You would have to get 20-plus Republican senators to cross the line. The odds of this? Some would suggest one in a million odds.
8. More of a TV drama than anything else? The episode with President Clinton in 1998 helped to form up cable TV, and create dramatic political 'opera' for the public over the past twenty years. Some people believe massive public sentiment shifts during these periods....there's no proof or evidence of this.
9. Length of time. Well, you can generally expect the first step to take a minimum of six weeks....maybe up to twelve weeks. The second step will involve around two to three days of speeches in the House, and then a vote. The last step in the Senate? This is wide open. It could last five to eight days. It could go on for six to ten weeks. The chief justice could limit evidence but that could be openly challenged.
10. If President Trump were convicted, who takes over? VP Pence, and he would pick a replacement VP....to be confirmed by the Senate.
11. The campaign funds being collected by Team-Trump during this period? Well, it's actually helping Trump by creating this drama period, and there's tens of millions flowing into his campaign chest. Back in August, some analysts were speculating that Trump would have one-billion dollars by early spring (an all-time record). If anything....it's helping to bring even more cash in, and helps him if they fail on impeachment. If he were to be impeached....what happens to the billion-dollar campaign pot? Trump could use it for any campaign purpose in 2020.
12. One impeachment, and that's it? Not really. Lets say the impeachment goes and fails (the likely outcome). You could find another cause and trigger a second impeachment by March, and go for number two. If that fails, then onto impeachment number three, four and five. The chief problem in this....each failure leads the public to discount your credibility to dramatize politics.
So all of this could just come to a failed impeachment (like Johnson and Clinton)? Yes. Could negative information come out on the former Obama White House and various Democrats? There is some speculation that opening this up....will create a ethical problem for some individuals.
The public frustration? If you were frustrated with politics in 2016....this only doubles your negative view of Washington DC, and general politics.
1. There is this unique feature in the Constitution which allows for impeachment of a federal official. The basic charges available? Bribery, treason, high crimes, and misdemeanors.
2. Past use? 1866 with President Johnson (failed impeachment), attempted use in 1974 with the House committee having prepared charges on President Johnson (he resigned before he proceed on), and in 1998 with President Clinton (failed impeachment).
3. It is a three-step process. A House committee would have hearings and gather evidence. It would be voted upon in the committee and proceed to a House vote. Second step involves the House voting to push the paperwork to the Senate, which requires only a simple majority (50-percent plus one). Third step involves a Senate hearing, and this ends with a vote....requiring a super-majority (66 Senators) to convict (out of 100 total).
4. Since the early 60s, how many Republican Presidents have been threatened with impeachment? All of them, except Ford. Continual threat but never executing the impeachment process? This is part of the drama.
5. Who heads the Senate hearing? The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court basically shuts down in this period.
6. Rules? There's simply a very limited number of rules. There's probably enough to fill one single page.
7. This super-majority preventing conviction? Well, this is the amusing part of the story. In this case currently, the Democrats can only count on 47 votes. There's two independent Senators, and the Republicans have the majority. You would have to get 20-plus Republican senators to cross the line. The odds of this? Some would suggest one in a million odds.
8. More of a TV drama than anything else? The episode with President Clinton in 1998 helped to form up cable TV, and create dramatic political 'opera' for the public over the past twenty years. Some people believe massive public sentiment shifts during these periods....there's no proof or evidence of this.
9. Length of time. Well, you can generally expect the first step to take a minimum of six weeks....maybe up to twelve weeks. The second step will involve around two to three days of speeches in the House, and then a vote. The last step in the Senate? This is wide open. It could last five to eight days. It could go on for six to ten weeks. The chief justice could limit evidence but that could be openly challenged.
10. If President Trump were convicted, who takes over? VP Pence, and he would pick a replacement VP....to be confirmed by the Senate.
11. The campaign funds being collected by Team-Trump during this period? Well, it's actually helping Trump by creating this drama period, and there's tens of millions flowing into his campaign chest. Back in August, some analysts were speculating that Trump would have one-billion dollars by early spring (an all-time record). If anything....it's helping to bring even more cash in, and helps him if they fail on impeachment. If he were to be impeached....what happens to the billion-dollar campaign pot? Trump could use it for any campaign purpose in 2020.
12. One impeachment, and that's it? Not really. Lets say the impeachment goes and fails (the likely outcome). You could find another cause and trigger a second impeachment by March, and go for number two. If that fails, then onto impeachment number three, four and five. The chief problem in this....each failure leads the public to discount your credibility to dramatize politics.
So all of this could just come to a failed impeachment (like Johnson and Clinton)? Yes. Could negative information come out on the former Obama White House and various Democrats? There is some speculation that opening this up....will create a ethical problem for some individuals.
The public frustration? If you were frustrated with politics in 2016....this only doubles your negative view of Washington DC, and general politics.
Sunday, September 29, 2019
Results of the Austria Election
A number of months ago, a scandal occurred within the Austrian political system, with the Freedom Party of Austria (junior partner in the coalition). It more or less....collapsed the government and forced a new election. So it came yesterday.
Results:
- Austrian People's Party (right of center): 37.5 percent (they were the winner of the previous election).
- Social Democratic Party (left of center): 21.5 percent (dropping a couple of points over last election and giving previous voters over to the Greens).
- Freedom Party (right wing): 17.3 percent (big loser of the night, giving 10 points away from last election).
- Green Party: 12.5 percent (big gainer of the night)
- NEOS: 7.5 percent. This is the party that wants direction participation of the public on decision making....letting the public vote on everything.
Then you had 8 other parties with around five to seven percent of the national vote all combined. This included the Beer Party (3,600 votes), and the Christian Party (230 votes).
So what happens now? The OVP has four options. They could go the minority-government route with no partner (they need 50-plus percent on the partner deal).
They could partner with the Freedom Party (they did that up to the scandal period), but they've kinda hinted they prefer to rebuild and be a opposition party.
They could partner with the Social Democrats, but it'd mean a pull to the center, and relaxing on immigration harshness.
They could partner with the Greens, but there's been criticism by the Greens over the agenda of the OVP.
With the exception of the OVP, everyone is hinting of a rebuilding period. Issues facing politicians? Mostly corruption-talk, high unemployment (around 7 to 8 percent, depending on the region), inflation below 2-percent, great economic numbers for 2019, and immigration problems.
Finally, I'll offer a comment on the present Chancellor and likely future Chancellor....Kurz. He's a young guy.....you probably see him on TV a good bit if you follow Austrian affairs. He didn't have much in the scandal episode and appears 'intact'. Oddly, a fair number of Germans admire the young guy (certainly not a majority), and wish they had a young energetic Chancellor like the 'kid'.
Results:
- Austrian People's Party (right of center): 37.5 percent (they were the winner of the previous election).
- Social Democratic Party (left of center): 21.5 percent (dropping a couple of points over last election and giving previous voters over to the Greens).
- Freedom Party (right wing): 17.3 percent (big loser of the night, giving 10 points away from last election).
- Green Party: 12.5 percent (big gainer of the night)
- NEOS: 7.5 percent. This is the party that wants direction participation of the public on decision making....letting the public vote on everything.
Then you had 8 other parties with around five to seven percent of the national vote all combined. This included the Beer Party (3,600 votes), and the Christian Party (230 votes).
So what happens now? The OVP has four options. They could go the minority-government route with no partner (they need 50-plus percent on the partner deal).
They could partner with the Freedom Party (they did that up to the scandal period), but they've kinda hinted they prefer to rebuild and be a opposition party.
They could partner with the Social Democrats, but it'd mean a pull to the center, and relaxing on immigration harshness.
They could partner with the Greens, but there's been criticism by the Greens over the agenda of the OVP.
With the exception of the OVP, everyone is hinting of a rebuilding period. Issues facing politicians? Mostly corruption-talk, high unemployment (around 7 to 8 percent, depending on the region), inflation below 2-percent, great economic numbers for 2019, and immigration problems.
Finally, I'll offer a comment on the present Chancellor and likely future Chancellor....Kurz. He's a young guy.....you probably see him on TV a good bit if you follow Austrian affairs. He didn't have much in the scandal episode and appears 'intact'. Oddly, a fair number of Germans admire the young guy (certainly not a majority), and wish they had a young energetic Chancellor like the 'kid'.
Gas Tax Chatter
There's a great commentary column over at Focus today, by Helmut Markwort. His criticism? This greatly hyped 'save-the-climate' legislation that the Chancellor and the coalition government put together....which lays out various gas/diesel taxes to be added.
Markwort makes this one direct hit on the economic victims of the gas/diesel tax....it's the little guy and poorer families who will get the blunt end of this stick. They will be paying into the pot without any come-back.
As the tax starts to arrive....these families will shake their heads, and ask why they had to pay for something that they can't really afford. They may have a point, and one might suspect that behind the scenes.....someone is already planning up some welfare-upgrade, and another hundred Euro a month per welfare recipient....to make this all work.
Markwort makes this one direct hit on the economic victims of the gas/diesel tax....it's the little guy and poorer families who will get the blunt end of this stick. They will be paying into the pot without any come-back.
As the tax starts to arrive....these families will shake their heads, and ask why they had to pay for something that they can't really afford. They may have a point, and one might suspect that behind the scenes.....someone is already planning up some welfare-upgrade, and another hundred Euro a month per welfare recipient....to make this all work.
Skinhead Chatter
I noticed a short piece in the commercial German news sector today (Welt) which had a brief commentary on the decline of skinheads.
I know....it's an amusing topic to pick-up and discuss.
For German recognition.....a skinhead guy represents Nazis. If you have fewer skinheads around, then logically there should be fewer Nazis around.
So there is some belief now that the same number of Nazis are around, and a lot of these skinhead guys just felt that shaved head thing wasn't 'trendy' or 'in fashion'....so they just dumped the bald head routine.
Strictly a German thing? No, that's a myth. When you go back to the beginning of this sub-culture....it starts in the UK (late 1960s). A lot of this was simply a soccer hooligan affair and had nothing to do with Nazis.
What Germans often fail to grasp about the skinheads....was that they were gangs which might have included Nazi doctrine, or been a gang for an entirely different 'cause'. The RASH group up in the UK....are a left-wing skinhead 'gang'. Occasionally, the Redskins will pop up.....who are skinheads under the anti-capitalism cause.
So this belief if you see fewer skinheads, there are fewer Nazi 'gangs'? The discussion goes in the way that trends occurred, and shaving your head was now considered less trendy.....so there's probably the same number of skinheads (with hair) who are still pro-Nazi.
I know....it's an amusing topic to pick-up and discuss.
For German recognition.....a skinhead guy represents Nazis. If you have fewer skinheads around, then logically there should be fewer Nazis around.
So there is some belief now that the same number of Nazis are around, and a lot of these skinhead guys just felt that shaved head thing wasn't 'trendy' or 'in fashion'....so they just dumped the bald head routine.
Strictly a German thing? No, that's a myth. When you go back to the beginning of this sub-culture....it starts in the UK (late 1960s). A lot of this was simply a soccer hooligan affair and had nothing to do with Nazis.
What Germans often fail to grasp about the skinheads....was that they were gangs which might have included Nazi doctrine, or been a gang for an entirely different 'cause'. The RASH group up in the UK....are a left-wing skinhead 'gang'. Occasionally, the Redskins will pop up.....who are skinheads under the anti-capitalism cause.
So this belief if you see fewer skinheads, there are fewer Nazi 'gangs'? The discussion goes in the way that trends occurred, and shaving your head was now considered less trendy.....so there's probably the same number of skinheads (with hair) who are still pro-Nazi.
Agreeing to Disagree
I picked up a commentary last week via FOCUS columnist Jan Fleischhauer. I have to admit, it's an interesting topic and five-star commentary. The basic discussion? We are reaching a stage in society where people with a particular viewpoint....ONLY hangout and chat with people of the same viewpoint. So they sit around.....patting each other on the back, and condemn the opposing viewpoint.
It's noticeable not only in Germany, but throughout Europe, and into the US as well.
There's not a week that goes by....that you don't see a public forum chat show on German public TV, and the guests are invited (arranged) to sell a particular viewpoint. You will never see a show where it's a moderator and two guests of opposing viewpoints. It'll typically be a moderator and five guests.....with pattern set mostly to be three on one side, one neutral person, and one single opposing person. By the end, you (if you attempted to watch this) are left with a overwhelming sales pitch to buy the side with the more discussion, and not the one single guy's viewpoint.
Fleischhauer makes a good point in this commentary, that this change in society is not helping things. If you went back fifty years ago, there just weren't that many things on people's minds that required a position to be taken. If you gauged the typical person today.....he or she has a minimum of twenty-five topics....which they have a position.
Vegan diets? Years ago....if you wanted to do it....fine, you just did it. Now, it's a sales pitch. Diesel cars? There are some people completely sold on them and believe it to such a degree, that it's a position, with anti-diesel enthusiasts on the other side. BREXIT is a great example of position points. Toss in climate change, immigration, Putin, and even Star Wars or the Marvel universe.
Any change on the horizon? No. If anything, we are likely to double our position points, and become even more disagreeable.
It's noticeable not only in Germany, but throughout Europe, and into the US as well.
There's not a week that goes by....that you don't see a public forum chat show on German public TV, and the guests are invited (arranged) to sell a particular viewpoint. You will never see a show where it's a moderator and two guests of opposing viewpoints. It'll typically be a moderator and five guests.....with pattern set mostly to be three on one side, one neutral person, and one single opposing person. By the end, you (if you attempted to watch this) are left with a overwhelming sales pitch to buy the side with the more discussion, and not the one single guy's viewpoint.
Fleischhauer makes a good point in this commentary, that this change in society is not helping things. If you went back fifty years ago, there just weren't that many things on people's minds that required a position to be taken. If you gauged the typical person today.....he or she has a minimum of twenty-five topics....which they have a position.
Vegan diets? Years ago....if you wanted to do it....fine, you just did it. Now, it's a sales pitch. Diesel cars? There are some people completely sold on them and believe it to such a degree, that it's a position, with anti-diesel enthusiasts on the other side. BREXIT is a great example of position points. Toss in climate change, immigration, Putin, and even Star Wars or the Marvel universe.
Any change on the horizon? No. If anything, we are likely to double our position points, and become even more disagreeable.
Saturday, September 28, 2019
Polling Story
It's an odd poll and I would question who came up with this idea of gauging the German public. So the question centered on the Greta Thunberg speech at the UN, and Germans were asked on support or non-support.
The poll team? Civey. It's reported in Focus news on Friday.
Forty-five percent of the German public was supportive....with almost an equal amount (40-percent) negative about the speech.
But here's the bigger number that stands out....more German women were critical of the speech, than German men
My question would be....why bother polling this? But it does show the level of agreement being fairly divided. Maybe this also says something about the coalition government package for climate change, and it being viewed as a meager 40-billion Euro....with public acceptance a done deal. In the public mind, there are more intense problems to be working upon.
Bear in mind, no one has made the blunt move to end the Fridays for the Future business and skipping school at noon on Friday, at least not yet.
The poll team? Civey. It's reported in Focus news on Friday.
Forty-five percent of the German public was supportive....with almost an equal amount (40-percent) negative about the speech.
But here's the bigger number that stands out....more German women were critical of the speech, than German men
My question would be....why bother polling this? But it does show the level of agreement being fairly divided. Maybe this also says something about the coalition government package for climate change, and it being viewed as a meager 40-billion Euro....with public acceptance a done deal. In the public mind, there are more intense problems to be working upon.
Bear in mind, no one has made the blunt move to end the Fridays for the Future business and skipping school at noon on Friday, at least not yet.
Traben-Trabach in the News
This is an odd story which has layers or elements to it.....that will continue to be revealed....year after year.
The location? Traben-Trabach. If you drew a line between Trier and Koblenz....it's about in the middle, along the Mosel River. In terms of rural nature....it's pretty remote and quiet.
For years (1960s to the 1990s)....NATO had a 'secret' installation there, with bunkers. At some point, NATO said 'enough' and retired the facility. Germany put it up for sale. Some folks came in and bought the facility (with the bunkers). Purpose? Well....no one talked about it.
This week, the purpose was revealed. It was a criminal computer network location. Two-hundred servers have been recovered by the cops. The network? All connected into Darknet.
Thirteen folks have been detained, and the cops have shutdown the entire network.
So here's the curious thing.....the cops say it may take several years before they've finished exploring the two-hundred servers. So more to be arrested? I would take a guess that you might find several thousand folks being called into some court, and having to answer for various issues.
The location? Traben-Trabach. If you drew a line between Trier and Koblenz....it's about in the middle, along the Mosel River. In terms of rural nature....it's pretty remote and quiet.
For years (1960s to the 1990s)....NATO had a 'secret' installation there, with bunkers. At some point, NATO said 'enough' and retired the facility. Germany put it up for sale. Some folks came in and bought the facility (with the bunkers). Purpose? Well....no one talked about it.
This week, the purpose was revealed. It was a criminal computer network location. Two-hundred servers have been recovered by the cops. The network? All connected into Darknet.
Thirteen folks have been detained, and the cops have shutdown the entire network.
So here's the curious thing.....the cops say it may take several years before they've finished exploring the two-hundred servers. So more to be arrested? I would take a guess that you might find several thousand folks being called into some court, and having to answer for various issues.
Friday, September 27, 2019
Giessen and Carbon Neutrality
Today, a vote was held with the Giessen city council. The issue? Being carbon-neutral by 2035. The motion passed, and the pro-environmentalists were happy. It would be the first city in Hessen to be carbon-neutral (if this occurs).
Giessen? It's a significant town in Hessen and mostly known for being a university town (roughly 25,000 students). The population? It's between 85k and 90k.
So if you go and pull up this motion, and the initiative that was involved in the carbon-neutral business.....looking for a plan and cost estimate.....well, it's not really what you'd desire to build onto.
It's more of a goal, that is supposed to prod the city-government into certain policies (financial, planning and execution).
The effect of the student population on this vote? Because of the student population, you can probably say that they had enormous influence on the outcome.
So like in most cases like this.....my general question is cost and where any extra cost on projects will come from. Taxes? That's the curious thing.....because of regulations and laws, you can't really invent any additional VAT (sales taxes) or property taxes. You might be able to invent a few extra fees, and establish fines that might go up. You might even be able to require new apartment housing to be carbon-neutral, which might interest a few people, and scare the normal construction crowd away entirely from Giessen.
My general prediction is that construction in the city will decrease to some degree, and city construction projects will be continually lined up with funding requests to the EU or Berlin to craft a 'gift' of money to meet the carbon-neutral business. This might work for a year or two, until other cities realize there's a EU/Berlin path to more money and beg for funding as well.
The 2035 thing? It will be in the end....simply a goal. Even if they don't reach the status....they had the goal. There will be some sign in the city to note their status, and maybe even a carbon-neutral fest (to celebrate with carbon-neutral beer of course). Who knows....maybe some beer craftsman will invent a beer out of this.
Giessen? It's a significant town in Hessen and mostly known for being a university town (roughly 25,000 students). The population? It's between 85k and 90k.
So if you go and pull up this motion, and the initiative that was involved in the carbon-neutral business.....looking for a plan and cost estimate.....well, it's not really what you'd desire to build onto.
It's more of a goal, that is supposed to prod the city-government into certain policies (financial, planning and execution).
The effect of the student population on this vote? Because of the student population, you can probably say that they had enormous influence on the outcome.
So like in most cases like this.....my general question is cost and where any extra cost on projects will come from. Taxes? That's the curious thing.....because of regulations and laws, you can't really invent any additional VAT (sales taxes) or property taxes. You might be able to invent a few extra fees, and establish fines that might go up. You might even be able to require new apartment housing to be carbon-neutral, which might interest a few people, and scare the normal construction crowd away entirely from Giessen.
My general prediction is that construction in the city will decrease to some degree, and city construction projects will be continually lined up with funding requests to the EU or Berlin to craft a 'gift' of money to meet the carbon-neutral business. This might work for a year or two, until other cities realize there's a EU/Berlin path to more money and beg for funding as well.
The 2035 thing? It will be in the end....simply a goal. Even if they don't reach the status....they had the goal. There will be some sign in the city to note their status, and maybe even a carbon-neutral fest (to celebrate with carbon-neutral beer of course). Who knows....maybe some beer craftsman will invent a beer out of this.
Retirement of Gabriel
For eight years, he was the 'mainstay' of the German SPD Party, their 'boss' and chairman. Quietly today, Sigmar Gabriel gave notice that he's retiring and leaving the party in November. No real party....no statue.....nothing.
From 2009 to 2017, he was the front guy for the party and had his image on TV almost every other night. He was the guy who emphasized the common worker and little-guy throughout Germany.
Quietly, the party in 2017 staged things to ditch him, and move him on out. When the smoke had cleared, there were a significant amount of hostility with SPD-voters over how it was handled, and to some degree, it probably opened the door for some voters to walk out.
Gabriel stayed around in the Bundestag for the past two years, but it's mostly a chance to watch the party dissolve and lose more public clout. He's got a pension, and he'll go to write a book or two on public frustration with German politics.
Some regular Germans (the folks over the age of forty), will say that there's some need for a Gabriel-like politician to come and rescue the nation. Others probably will suggest that the time and place for guys like this dissolved away in the 1980s.
From 2009 to 2017, he was the front guy for the party and had his image on TV almost every other night. He was the guy who emphasized the common worker and little-guy throughout Germany.
Quietly, the party in 2017 staged things to ditch him, and move him on out. When the smoke had cleared, there were a significant amount of hostility with SPD-voters over how it was handled, and to some degree, it probably opened the door for some voters to walk out.
Gabriel stayed around in the Bundestag for the past two years, but it's mostly a chance to watch the party dissolve and lose more public clout. He's got a pension, and he'll go to write a book or two on public frustration with German politics.
Some regular Germans (the folks over the age of forty), will say that there's some need for a Gabriel-like politician to come and rescue the nation. Others probably will suggest that the time and place for guys like this dissolved away in the 1980s.
Explaining Grundrente
Over the next year, you will hear the German term 'Grundrente' a good bit.....which translates over to 'basic income' or 'basic pension'.
So lets explain landscape of pensions in Germany. There are various groups of Germans who enter the work force, and advance on different paths....to reach a retirement age (now set to 67). They contribute x-amount into the pension plan and they will get x-amount out at 67.
Well....some folks, with very limited education and no skillcraft certification (no Abi).....are on the path for minimum wage for almost their entire life. It's enough to live off of, but little else. So here's the shocker, at age 67.....that pension likely rests in the 550 to 650 Euro a month range. Enough to live off? No. If your house is paid for, and no real bills at 67.....you can generally survive with around 1,100 Euro or more. If you really stretched your money and lived in a marginal way....maybe in the 850 Euro range.
In plain words, there's a group retiring each year and they can't survive off the pension they earned. Four things can occur at this point: (1) you take up a part-time job in the 450 Euro range each month (mini-job status), (2) you convince some kid of yours to take you in, (3) you apply to the government for social help (welfare), or (4) you attempt to live off the marginal pension and not ask for help.
Who do you blame for arriving at this point? Well, in the 1980s and 1990s....the government should have put enormous pressure on young people to wrap up their job certification, and progress a step or two ahead. This pressure existing today? No, in fact, there are hundreds of thousands of young people in their 20s today....without the skillcraft certification and they will reach 67 in four decades....to be on welfare in retirement.
The Merkel coalition government has established a working group. They want to create an analytical program where you will be given a 'good' basic retirement, even if you haven't earned it.
Requiring tax money? Yes. How much? It's an unknown factor at this point, but you can figure it's going to be a minimum of one billion Euro a year. The suggestion by journalists (based on info by politicians)....there's around 3-million Germans who need help (some more than others).
The max that we might be talking about? 450 Euro dumped into a pot to help 'Hans' reach some logical point of correct pension.
Will this anger some people? Yes. But data from polling shows that 80-plus-percent of Germans think something has to be done. You can either pay them the extra 450 Euro up front, or pay them via welfare....it's still taxation money no matter how you look at it.
The earliest that you might see this worked out? There's some talk that this committee might require a year to figure out the basic level, and the various ways to test the situation. So I wouldn't go and expect this to happen until spring of 2021.
So lets explain landscape of pensions in Germany. There are various groups of Germans who enter the work force, and advance on different paths....to reach a retirement age (now set to 67). They contribute x-amount into the pension plan and they will get x-amount out at 67.
Well....some folks, with very limited education and no skillcraft certification (no Abi).....are on the path for minimum wage for almost their entire life. It's enough to live off of, but little else. So here's the shocker, at age 67.....that pension likely rests in the 550 to 650 Euro a month range. Enough to live off? No. If your house is paid for, and no real bills at 67.....you can generally survive with around 1,100 Euro or more. If you really stretched your money and lived in a marginal way....maybe in the 850 Euro range.
In plain words, there's a group retiring each year and they can't survive off the pension they earned. Four things can occur at this point: (1) you take up a part-time job in the 450 Euro range each month (mini-job status), (2) you convince some kid of yours to take you in, (3) you apply to the government for social help (welfare), or (4) you attempt to live off the marginal pension and not ask for help.
Who do you blame for arriving at this point? Well, in the 1980s and 1990s....the government should have put enormous pressure on young people to wrap up their job certification, and progress a step or two ahead. This pressure existing today? No, in fact, there are hundreds of thousands of young people in their 20s today....without the skillcraft certification and they will reach 67 in four decades....to be on welfare in retirement.
The Merkel coalition government has established a working group. They want to create an analytical program where you will be given a 'good' basic retirement, even if you haven't earned it.
Requiring tax money? Yes. How much? It's an unknown factor at this point, but you can figure it's going to be a minimum of one billion Euro a year. The suggestion by journalists (based on info by politicians)....there's around 3-million Germans who need help (some more than others).
The max that we might be talking about? 450 Euro dumped into a pot to help 'Hans' reach some logical point of correct pension.
Will this anger some people? Yes. But data from polling shows that 80-plus-percent of Germans think something has to be done. You can either pay them the extra 450 Euro up front, or pay them via welfare....it's still taxation money no matter how you look at it.
The earliest that you might see this worked out? There's some talk that this committee might require a year to figure out the basic level, and the various ways to test the situation. So I wouldn't go and expect this to happen until spring of 2021.
Germany and Central Banks (Plural)
The 'first' central or national bank of Germany was the Reichsbank, created under the Prussian government in 1875. Now, one has to be careful in how they tell this story, because it's not really the 'first'.
At this key junction in 1870.....because of city-states, kingdoms and states joining under the Prussian system of government over a period of six decades....there were roughly 30 different central banks existing. The Prussians reached a point where they realized that you could not continue with that many 'hands' in the pot.
So an act was written up in 1870 to say 'no more central banks to be added'. In 1874, a draft bill came through and it was agreed upon....there would just be one central bank for all of Prussia, and that occurred in 1875.
History will basically lay out a fairly successful period for the Reichsbank all the way up to 1914 and WW I. After the war? It's a serious period of inflation, and the Reichsbank is pretty much screwed....no matter what they do.
As we get into the mid-to-late 1930s....two events occur. In 1937, there's a bill drafted by the Reichstag (the Bundestag) and it lays out more authority by the government over the Reichsbank. Two years later, another bill puts the Reichsbank directly under Hitler.
After the war (II), the split of East and West Germany led to West Germany having the replacement central bank system....the Bank deutscher Lander....being created. And roughly a decade later, the Bundesbank would be created (which still exists today).
At this key junction in 1870.....because of city-states, kingdoms and states joining under the Prussian system of government over a period of six decades....there were roughly 30 different central banks existing. The Prussians reached a point where they realized that you could not continue with that many 'hands' in the pot.
So an act was written up in 1870 to say 'no more central banks to be added'. In 1874, a draft bill came through and it was agreed upon....there would just be one central bank for all of Prussia, and that occurred in 1875.
History will basically lay out a fairly successful period for the Reichsbank all the way up to 1914 and WW I. After the war? It's a serious period of inflation, and the Reichsbank is pretty much screwed....no matter what they do.
As we get into the mid-to-late 1930s....two events occur. In 1937, there's a bill drafted by the Reichstag (the Bundestag) and it lays out more authority by the government over the Reichsbank. Two years later, another bill puts the Reichsbank directly under Hitler.
After the war (II), the split of East and West Germany led to West Germany having the replacement central bank system....the Bank deutscher Lander....being created. And roughly a decade later, the Bundesbank would be created (which still exists today).
Thursday, September 26, 2019
Stassi Chatter
Among the top stories in Germany from last night, there was this story left over from the Cold War period.....what to do with the Stassi files.
During the glory days of the DDR (former East Germany), the Secret Police (the Stassi) were your typical German bureaucratic intelligence collectors, and they built tons of files on just about everyone (to include regular people from both East and West Germany).
The Bundestag held a vote yesterday and basically opened the door for the 'relocation' of all Stassi folders/files.
They are to be handled by the German Federal Archives after the summer of 2021.
Critics happy? No.
Right now....through a process, if you had interest in yourself or your folder, you could apply and learn what's being held 'secret'.
What the critics suggest is that secrecy has to be maintained and they didn't get that good feeling about the national archives doing the job.
How many Germans have dug into the files to find out what was collected on them? It's not a open statistic. We are about thirty years from the Wall coming down, and former DDR residents nearing forty are pretty sure that there isn't any folder for them. If you were over fifty? There's pretty good odds that something was collected on you.....maybe by your professor, or your wife, or some neighbor.
I asked my wife (a 'westy' German), and she admitted there might be a folder mentioning her trip over across the West Berlin area from the early 1980s. Beyond that, she's confident that nothing nasty exists on her.
The problem with this private folder business, and people turning in reports....some of this might have been legit and truthful information (you had four beers and insulted the local mayor). Some of this might be fraudulent information and false (you had some super-secret affair with a CIA agent). You might open up a pretty thick file on yourself and find just about every third-page to be gossip material from your sister-in-law at the time.
So the critics do have a valid point. Personally, I'd be more in favor of just burning the entire collection.
During the glory days of the DDR (former East Germany), the Secret Police (the Stassi) were your typical German bureaucratic intelligence collectors, and they built tons of files on just about everyone (to include regular people from both East and West Germany).
The Bundestag held a vote yesterday and basically opened the door for the 'relocation' of all Stassi folders/files.
They are to be handled by the German Federal Archives after the summer of 2021.
Critics happy? No.
Right now....through a process, if you had interest in yourself or your folder, you could apply and learn what's being held 'secret'.
What the critics suggest is that secrecy has to be maintained and they didn't get that good feeling about the national archives doing the job.
How many Germans have dug into the files to find out what was collected on them? It's not a open statistic. We are about thirty years from the Wall coming down, and former DDR residents nearing forty are pretty sure that there isn't any folder for them. If you were over fifty? There's pretty good odds that something was collected on you.....maybe by your professor, or your wife, or some neighbor.
I asked my wife (a 'westy' German), and she admitted there might be a folder mentioning her trip over across the West Berlin area from the early 1980s. Beyond that, she's confident that nothing nasty exists on her.
The problem with this private folder business, and people turning in reports....some of this might have been legit and truthful information (you had four beers and insulted the local mayor). Some of this might be fraudulent information and false (you had some super-secret affair with a CIA agent). You might open up a pretty thick file on yourself and find just about every third-page to be gossip material from your sister-in-law at the time.
So the critics do have a valid point. Personally, I'd be more in favor of just burning the entire collection.
More Thomas Cook Issues
Over the last day or so, private stories have finally started to come out by Germans who were stuck in various vacation locations, and faced with hostile hotels who demanded they pay the bill that Thomas Cook was responsible for.
I sat this morning and read through a piece by one couple....now safely back in Germany. They were shocked to be told by their 'upscale' hotel in Thailand.....the bill was now in their hands and in the 5,000 Euro range (even though they'd already paid Thomas Cook months prior).
Attempting to leave? The hotel said they'd call the cops and hinted of jail in Thailand.
What'll happen now? There's supposed to be a insurance package existing to cover events that you'd buy via the travel agency (part of the package), but experts say there's only x-amount in that 'bucket' and they suggest that a lot of people may only get 50-percent of their money back.
So I turn to the hotel damage. You, if you were on the screwed-list, would come back to Germany, and write a very negative comment on that hotel via Tripadviser. Just two or three of those would do a serious amount of damage to your hotel's reputation. A three-star operation wouldn't care. But a four or five-star operation? It'll dent their occupancy rate for the next season.
The other thing that hotels have to worry about....eventually TV journalists will come and do interviews....listing the hotels that screwed Germans, and giving them prime-time status. It's a million-Euro advertisement....giving you serious negativity as a hotel.
People may think that this harms the tour business for September of 2019....but this is the kind of event that could cause damage for hotels and airlines for several years.
I sat this morning and read through a piece by one couple....now safely back in Germany. They were shocked to be told by their 'upscale' hotel in Thailand.....the bill was now in their hands and in the 5,000 Euro range (even though they'd already paid Thomas Cook months prior).
Attempting to leave? The hotel said they'd call the cops and hinted of jail in Thailand.
What'll happen now? There's supposed to be a insurance package existing to cover events that you'd buy via the travel agency (part of the package), but experts say there's only x-amount in that 'bucket' and they suggest that a lot of people may only get 50-percent of their money back.
So I turn to the hotel damage. You, if you were on the screwed-list, would come back to Germany, and write a very negative comment on that hotel via Tripadviser. Just two or three of those would do a serious amount of damage to your hotel's reputation. A three-star operation wouldn't care. But a four or five-star operation? It'll dent their occupancy rate for the next season.
The other thing that hotels have to worry about....eventually TV journalists will come and do interviews....listing the hotels that screwed Germans, and giving them prime-time status. It's a million-Euro advertisement....giving you serious negativity as a hotel.
People may think that this harms the tour business for September of 2019....but this is the kind of event that could cause damage for hotels and airlines for several years.
Spain and Elections
Back in December of 2015....Spain had a 'normal' election. Results? Well....you had two parties (Social Democracy and Conservative Christian Democracy) who got near 72-percent of the national vote. The remaining vote? Three parties took a weaker situation with around 16-percent of the vote.
So building a coalition? This turned into a mess. A lot of this leads back to the Basque region, but some relates to parties not able to reach a clear public opinion.
So in June of 2016....they held another election.
Results? You had three parties (the Left-Wing Populist group joined the Social Democracy and Conservative Christian Democracy) gaining 70-percent of the vote. The Liberalism Party took around 14-percent, and then six minor parties taking the remainder.
Forming a coalition? No, it ended with a minority government. This marginally worked, until the spring of this year.
So another election occurred (April 2019). 76-percent of the public went with the same top three parties of 2016. Yeah, a real shocker....voters didn't change their minds. In fact, even the remaining 24-percent kinda split up the same as before.
A coalition situation? Not really.
So we are approaching 10 November 2019, with yet another election.
Any changes? Well, there's this factor in the past day or two....a new party called 'Mas Pais' (More Country is the translation). What they say is that they want all the disillusioned left-wing people to come over to their campaign.
What may happen? Polls can't factor this in so quickly, but it might subtract some votes away from the two parties which lean left. Mas Pais might take 10-percent, but it's basically carving off votes, and making this a bit more difficult to build a coalition.
The odds of another election by fall of 2020? If you read through journalistic comments....no one talks about this, and they tend to avoid the suggestion that politics in Spain has reached a frustrating level with the general public. The Basque question a major issue? It doesn't appear to be as big as some might think. There were five political parties from the Catalan region, and they combined to take around 7-percent of the vote. If they had gone to one central party for their region? That might have more authority, but that's simply not going to happen.
So if you wanted a good demonstration about coalitions and how they sometimes are dysfunctional....Spain would be a good example.
So building a coalition? This turned into a mess. A lot of this leads back to the Basque region, but some relates to parties not able to reach a clear public opinion.
So in June of 2016....they held another election.
Results? You had three parties (the Left-Wing Populist group joined the Social Democracy and Conservative Christian Democracy) gaining 70-percent of the vote. The Liberalism Party took around 14-percent, and then six minor parties taking the remainder.
Forming a coalition? No, it ended with a minority government. This marginally worked, until the spring of this year.
So another election occurred (April 2019). 76-percent of the public went with the same top three parties of 2016. Yeah, a real shocker....voters didn't change their minds. In fact, even the remaining 24-percent kinda split up the same as before.
A coalition situation? Not really.
So we are approaching 10 November 2019, with yet another election.
Any changes? Well, there's this factor in the past day or two....a new party called 'Mas Pais' (More Country is the translation). What they say is that they want all the disillusioned left-wing people to come over to their campaign.
What may happen? Polls can't factor this in so quickly, but it might subtract some votes away from the two parties which lean left. Mas Pais might take 10-percent, but it's basically carving off votes, and making this a bit more difficult to build a coalition.
The odds of another election by fall of 2020? If you read through journalistic comments....no one talks about this, and they tend to avoid the suggestion that politics in Spain has reached a frustrating level with the general public. The Basque question a major issue? It doesn't appear to be as big as some might think. There were five political parties from the Catalan region, and they combined to take around 7-percent of the vote. If they had gone to one central party for their region? That might have more authority, but that's simply not going to happen.
So if you wanted a good demonstration about coalitions and how they sometimes are dysfunctional....Spain would be a good example.
Oktoberfest Beer
Oktoberfest is underway, and one of the little things that people never think much about....is the price of beer.
Now, here's a simple fact. You can avoid the 'grounds' and go over to the city park, and sip through a regular perfect Bavarian beer, in a half-liter glass....for around 4.80 Euro (roughly $5.30 US).
Or you can go over to the grounds and order the beer in the fest tent.....half-a-liter, for around 5.40 Euro (roughly $6.00 US).
Upswing over last year? The experts say it's around 3-to-4 percent above last year's price. And you can expect the same rise in beer prices for 2020.
For a full Mass? The one-liter container? At the more expensive spot on the grounds, it'll be up around 11.70 Euro ($12.50).
The effect of a Mass? If you sip through it carefully, and take your time.....one will be enough for 90 minutes. The guy who drinks it in 40 minutes, and orders a second? He's getting pretty screwed up by the end of the second Mass. I would generally caution people to avoid the Mass.
Now, here's a simple fact. You can avoid the 'grounds' and go over to the city park, and sip through a regular perfect Bavarian beer, in a half-liter glass....for around 4.80 Euro (roughly $5.30 US).
Or you can go over to the grounds and order the beer in the fest tent.....half-a-liter, for around 5.40 Euro (roughly $6.00 US).
Upswing over last year? The experts say it's around 3-to-4 percent above last year's price. And you can expect the same rise in beer prices for 2020.
For a full Mass? The one-liter container? At the more expensive spot on the grounds, it'll be up around 11.70 Euro ($12.50).
The effect of a Mass? If you sip through it carefully, and take your time.....one will be enough for 90 minutes. The guy who drinks it in 40 minutes, and orders a second? He's getting pretty screwed up by the end of the second Mass. I would generally caution people to avoid the Mass.
How Bad is this Thomas Cook Travel 'Fall-Out'?
When the smoke had cleared last Sunday....around three-quarters of a million Europeans (mostly Brits and Germans) were screwed. You basically had four groups with problems:
1. The ones on holiday already. These folks found that the return airline tickets were no longer going to work.....no one was there to help with plan 'B'....and the hotels were asking them to pay for what the travel company had signed to pay them already. Yes, there is a general insurance fund to cover episodes like this, but the amount in the fund has a limit, and based on legal opinions offered so far....the best you might hope for is 50-percent of your money returned.
2. The hotels. The bulk of them were expecting their contracted money a month after the trip concluded. Those hotels will likely not see much of the money, but through legal methods.....might get some back. For hotels in Turkey, who'd suffered economically in 2017 and 2018....it's a harsh episode.
3. The folks who were supposed to be leaving this week or over the next four months for their trip. Even with the deposit down and tickets in their hands....it's worthless. These people already have leave scheduled, and some may have laid down 2,000 Euro just on airline tickets. I watched some interview yesterday where the lady grumbled that her trip (just paid in the past ten days) for spring of 2020....is questionable, and she has zero confidence about the full amount coming back to her.
4. Finally, the people who are unaffected but now have a strong distrust of the entire travel industry based on the fall-out of this Cook episode.
If you go out and chat with middle-class Germans....just about everyone will admit in the past decade to having used travel agencies for package-tours on a dozen-odd occasions. Some were just weekend trips to Amsterdam or Paris....some were week-long trips to the Greek isles.....some were two-week packages to Thailand.
People liked the simplicity of the package deal. You pay the money, and from the minute you arrive at the airport....things are taken care of. You'd arrive at the destination airport, and a bus would be there to take you onto the hotel. Everything at the hotel was written out and clear. A bus would bring you from the hotel back to the airport, and you'd come back home with no issues.
For me, it's been fifteen years since I used a travel agency package tour. I grumbled about that last trip, and decided I could do a better job of planning than these companies. The internet gave me every single tool to gauge prices, find discounts, and hire up shuttle rides for the airport business.
So what happens in 2020? I'm predicting that a mass number of German regular package tour customers will refuse to deal with the travel companies.....even if they discount their prices (a serious mistake). I think a lot of Germans will travel off to Czech, France, Poland and Italy....by car or rail. I think those who don't get much of their money back....will turn their backs permanently on the travel industry. Greece and Turkey? They might lose a third of their normal business because of this Thomas Cook episode.....which is amusing that they did nothing wrong and were more or less the innocent bystander.
Onto the last observation, which you have to wonder about. If X-number of Euro went into the pot, to cover hotels and expenses....where did all the profits disappear to? Or was the whole Thomas Cook thing one giant pyramid-scheme?
1. The ones on holiday already. These folks found that the return airline tickets were no longer going to work.....no one was there to help with plan 'B'....and the hotels were asking them to pay for what the travel company had signed to pay them already. Yes, there is a general insurance fund to cover episodes like this, but the amount in the fund has a limit, and based on legal opinions offered so far....the best you might hope for is 50-percent of your money returned.
2. The hotels. The bulk of them were expecting their contracted money a month after the trip concluded. Those hotels will likely not see much of the money, but through legal methods.....might get some back. For hotels in Turkey, who'd suffered economically in 2017 and 2018....it's a harsh episode.
3. The folks who were supposed to be leaving this week or over the next four months for their trip. Even with the deposit down and tickets in their hands....it's worthless. These people already have leave scheduled, and some may have laid down 2,000 Euro just on airline tickets. I watched some interview yesterday where the lady grumbled that her trip (just paid in the past ten days) for spring of 2020....is questionable, and she has zero confidence about the full amount coming back to her.
4. Finally, the people who are unaffected but now have a strong distrust of the entire travel industry based on the fall-out of this Cook episode.
If you go out and chat with middle-class Germans....just about everyone will admit in the past decade to having used travel agencies for package-tours on a dozen-odd occasions. Some were just weekend trips to Amsterdam or Paris....some were week-long trips to the Greek isles.....some were two-week packages to Thailand.
People liked the simplicity of the package deal. You pay the money, and from the minute you arrive at the airport....things are taken care of. You'd arrive at the destination airport, and a bus would be there to take you onto the hotel. Everything at the hotel was written out and clear. A bus would bring you from the hotel back to the airport, and you'd come back home with no issues.
For me, it's been fifteen years since I used a travel agency package tour. I grumbled about that last trip, and decided I could do a better job of planning than these companies. The internet gave me every single tool to gauge prices, find discounts, and hire up shuttle rides for the airport business.
So what happens in 2020? I'm predicting that a mass number of German regular package tour customers will refuse to deal with the travel companies.....even if they discount their prices (a serious mistake). I think a lot of Germans will travel off to Czech, France, Poland and Italy....by car or rail. I think those who don't get much of their money back....will turn their backs permanently on the travel industry. Greece and Turkey? They might lose a third of their normal business because of this Thomas Cook episode.....which is amusing that they did nothing wrong and were more or less the innocent bystander.
Onto the last observation, which you have to wonder about. If X-number of Euro went into the pot, to cover hotels and expenses....where did all the profits disappear to? Or was the whole Thomas Cook thing one giant pyramid-scheme?
Bus Chatter
If you ride on a German tram or bus....there's always the potential for an 'audit' (ticket-check). In an average year, I'll probably see around fifteen-to-twenty events where a review is carried out.
'Black' riders? The ones without tickets? I would say that this comes up at least once on every bus audit. A couple of years ago, I observed around six people caught on a single bus-ride who were riding without a valid ticket.
So it came up yesterday.....one giant control action across the entire city of Wiesbaden for almost eight hours. The bad-boy list? 150 people.
It was a curious event because it wasn't just the bus audit people involved....the city police accompanied them, along with the Hessen state riot police. With the cops on board the buses....if your ticket business failed, the cops got the second round.....they could frisk you. Normally, that's not part of the audit game.
So what did the cops find? Narcotics, and illegal pepper spray devices. Stolen IDs were also recovered.
A serious change in tactics? Well, the police numbers are going up and they've got plenty of man-hours to put toward public safety. The bus management folks are suggesting more of these operations will occur in the future, and the tolerance level is going to be pushed up a notch.
From a historical prospective, if you rode the Wiesbaden city buses in the 1980s, you just never noted someone riding without a ticket. On the railway system, you might have occasionally seen someone attempt a trip with no ticket. In the past decade, this 'black-rider' thing has gone radically up. The other odd aspect of this....a fair number of these audit episodes end up in a violent confrontation, and the 'black rider' thinks he'll just escape away. Oddly enough, if you watch these audits unfold....it's like a 90-percent male group on the violators. If you do see women on the violation side, it's always some 14 or 15 year old girl, who had the money from dad, but was attempting pocket it and ride freely.
'Black' riders? The ones without tickets? I would say that this comes up at least once on every bus audit. A couple of years ago, I observed around six people caught on a single bus-ride who were riding without a valid ticket.
So it came up yesterday.....one giant control action across the entire city of Wiesbaden for almost eight hours. The bad-boy list? 150 people.
It was a curious event because it wasn't just the bus audit people involved....the city police accompanied them, along with the Hessen state riot police. With the cops on board the buses....if your ticket business failed, the cops got the second round.....they could frisk you. Normally, that's not part of the audit game.
So what did the cops find? Narcotics, and illegal pepper spray devices. Stolen IDs were also recovered.
A serious change in tactics? Well, the police numbers are going up and they've got plenty of man-hours to put toward public safety. The bus management folks are suggesting more of these operations will occur in the future, and the tolerance level is going to be pushed up a notch.
From a historical prospective, if you rode the Wiesbaden city buses in the 1980s, you just never noted someone riding without a ticket. On the railway system, you might have occasionally seen someone attempt a trip with no ticket. In the past decade, this 'black-rider' thing has gone radically up. The other odd aspect of this....a fair number of these audit episodes end up in a violent confrontation, and the 'black rider' thinks he'll just escape away. Oddly enough, if you watch these audits unfold....it's like a 90-percent male group on the violators. If you do see women on the violation side, it's always some 14 or 15 year old girl, who had the money from dad, but was attempting pocket it and ride freely.
Palmer Speaks
There's an interesting short piece over on the German magazine Focus this morning....commentary by Boris Palmer. Palmer is the 'Lord Mayor' of Tübingen, Germany and one of the Green Party people that I respect and admire. As much as he is Green Partyish.....he's a key player in Baden-Wurttemberg politics and often quoted around the southern German state.
Someone came up and asked Palmer his opinion on Greta Thunberg.
So Palmer laid it out. No, there's no destruction of youth going on. There's now a opportunity-rich world going on with better life chances than any point in the history of mankind.
He even goes on to point out various diseases (smallpox is a great example) that have been wiped out. Undernourished people? They still exist....no question, but the numbers are nowhere near where they were a generation ago.
Palmer then lays out the last card....that it can't be a one single-card poker game and only climate discussed. As he says....no one is going to sign up to dismantle both our economic and social system. Panic-chatter simply doesn't work to achieve anything.
After reading through the piece, I think he has a point. Around two weeks ago in Germany, a lot of pro-environmental people were thinking that the Merkel coalition would come up with 400-billion Euro (over four years) to save the environment. The eventual sum decided upon? Ten-percent of the expectation (40 billion Euro).
There was a comment made somewhere in the midst of this (a private citizen, not a journalist), who simply said in their blunt view.....you can't save the world with 40-billion Euro. I thought about it and kinda wondered how even 400-billion Euro could save the world. But this all comes back into a circle....just what do you want to do to the economy and social system?
Roughly 12.5-million Germans (out of 82-million) live in some sort of poverty. Some of the political folks are blunt about this.....it's the most since WW II. Health-wise, they are doing great and probably can't complain about the German healthcare system. Education-wise, kids have opportunities. There's obviously something wrong here with the numbers existing in the way they are. But if you tinkered with this system and triggered another five-million to fall into this poverty 'pit'....just how secure would the political system be, and how quickly would chaos reign?
It's an interesting discussion, with no end.
Someone came up and asked Palmer his opinion on Greta Thunberg.
So Palmer laid it out. No, there's no destruction of youth going on. There's now a opportunity-rich world going on with better life chances than any point in the history of mankind.
He even goes on to point out various diseases (smallpox is a great example) that have been wiped out. Undernourished people? They still exist....no question, but the numbers are nowhere near where they were a generation ago.
Palmer then lays out the last card....that it can't be a one single-card poker game and only climate discussed. As he says....no one is going to sign up to dismantle both our economic and social system. Panic-chatter simply doesn't work to achieve anything.
After reading through the piece, I think he has a point. Around two weeks ago in Germany, a lot of pro-environmental people were thinking that the Merkel coalition would come up with 400-billion Euro (over four years) to save the environment. The eventual sum decided upon? Ten-percent of the expectation (40 billion Euro).
There was a comment made somewhere in the midst of this (a private citizen, not a journalist), who simply said in their blunt view.....you can't save the world with 40-billion Euro. I thought about it and kinda wondered how even 400-billion Euro could save the world. But this all comes back into a circle....just what do you want to do to the economy and social system?
Roughly 12.5-million Germans (out of 82-million) live in some sort of poverty. Some of the political folks are blunt about this.....it's the most since WW II. Health-wise, they are doing great and probably can't complain about the German healthcare system. Education-wise, kids have opportunities. There's obviously something wrong here with the numbers existing in the way they are. But if you tinkered with this system and triggered another five-million to fall into this poverty 'pit'....just how secure would the political system be, and how quickly would chaos reign?
It's an interesting discussion, with no end.
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
Public Forum Chat
Over a year ago, the public TV 'board' that monitors and directs ARD and ZDF (the two 'big' German public networks) came out and suggested in a friendly way that the public TV forum chats needed to be 'corrected' in some way. They wanted the forums (probably around six to eight per week via the two networks) to tone down the hyped-up topics. Basically....less confrontation. This meant cutting back on anything to do with integration, migrants, and crime.
So Monday night came, and my German wife dictated that we'd be watching Hart Aber Fair via ARD, the chat forum and live show by Frank Plasberg.
The topic? Beauty treatments.
Yes, a national forum show at 9 PM....live....with five guests. It's safe to say that they found two pro-treatments, one neutral person, and two anti-treatment folks.
The one political figure? A professor-doctor-turned-politician for the SPD Party. His hype? He wants a law to forbid anyone under the age of eighteen in Germany from Botox, or any plastic surgery.
The business in Germany? Well, their numbers say it's booming....920k operations or procedures on Germans in 2018.
Sixteen year-old German girls getting boob-jobs? Well...not yet, but there's this fear that it's just around the corner and likely to become a trend.
I looked at my wife and asked what idiot parent would pay for this? Well....she responded 'rich folks, not us'.
It was successful in getting me to sleep in 30 minutes. A problem to worry about?
Here's thing....every year in August, as school starts up and the teenies all appear in the downtown area to board buses and return home.....I'm usually around and observing dress and attire. The teachers are working hard in that first week to weed out slut-attire and let the young ladies know what is acceptable and forbidden. Every year, it gets worse.
The worry about the boob-job thing starting up? Maybe they have a point. But it's sad you have to go and regulate something like this, and have people working hard to get around the law. I can see teenies crossing the border into Italy or France....to have the boob-job done there, if necessary.
So Monday night came, and my German wife dictated that we'd be watching Hart Aber Fair via ARD, the chat forum and live show by Frank Plasberg.
The topic? Beauty treatments.
Yes, a national forum show at 9 PM....live....with five guests. It's safe to say that they found two pro-treatments, one neutral person, and two anti-treatment folks.
The one political figure? A professor-doctor-turned-politician for the SPD Party. His hype? He wants a law to forbid anyone under the age of eighteen in Germany from Botox, or any plastic surgery.
The business in Germany? Well, their numbers say it's booming....920k operations or procedures on Germans in 2018.
Sixteen year-old German girls getting boob-jobs? Well...not yet, but there's this fear that it's just around the corner and likely to become a trend.
I looked at my wife and asked what idiot parent would pay for this? Well....she responded 'rich folks, not us'.
It was successful in getting me to sleep in 30 minutes. A problem to worry about?
Here's thing....every year in August, as school starts up and the teenies all appear in the downtown area to board buses and return home.....I'm usually around and observing dress and attire. The teachers are working hard in that first week to weed out slut-attire and let the young ladies know what is acceptable and forbidden. Every year, it gets worse.
The worry about the boob-job thing starting up? Maybe they have a point. But it's sad you have to go and regulate something like this, and have people working hard to get around the law. I can see teenies crossing the border into Italy or France....to have the boob-job done there, if necessary.
Trump, Merkel and the Ukraine
So from the US, this transcript of the July 'chat' between President Trump and the Ukrainian President lays out one curious detail.
I should note here.....the whole document is sitting there in PDF format, and you can read it for yourself over at White House.Gov. Takes maybe six minutes to read the 'chat'.
What the Germans are infuriated about?
Well....President Trump says in blunt language that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has done more or less....."nothing" for Ukraine in this period from the crisis build-up to present-day. The term used? "....all they do is talk."
President Trump says they've spent time and effort.
How much of this is left for debate? When you go back around six years ago (the Viktor Yanukovych period, ending in 2014)....the way that the EU handled the entry business into the EU, and the view by Russia (tail-spin to the maximum)....it's a woeful tale and really says a lot about crappy EU planning. They could have done this in minor steps, and spent an entire decade in a relaxed 'walk' to a EU partnership.
After the civil war started up? You can say a lot over Russian intentions and various groups having a Russian agenda in their hands.
The five years of Petro Poroshenko? The Russian problems simmered down. The EU was more careful to avoid any confrontation with Russia....maybe to the extent that they held any help to Ukraine to a bare minimum.
The thing is....all of these guys, from Macron, Merkel, Putin, Obama, and Trump....all 'BS' and talk hype. If you were longing for some 'gentle giant' and graceful dancing politician.....he or she simply don't exist.
The Germans now disgruntled and talking negative about Trump? Well....if you go back to November 2016....there hasn't been a single day that some German political figure hasn't 'dumped' on Trump. What's new?
So now....if Merkel was smart, she'd call up Volodymyr Zelensky, and hint that she wants to partner up with him to save the environment and hand five billion Euro to the Ukraine so that they could do their part on the C02 thing. She could tell him that Trump would never offer money like that.
I should note here.....the whole document is sitting there in PDF format, and you can read it for yourself over at White House.Gov. Takes maybe six minutes to read the 'chat'.
What the Germans are infuriated about?
Well....President Trump says in blunt language that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has done more or less....."nothing" for Ukraine in this period from the crisis build-up to present-day. The term used? "....all they do is talk."
President Trump says they've spent time and effort.
How much of this is left for debate? When you go back around six years ago (the Viktor Yanukovych period, ending in 2014)....the way that the EU handled the entry business into the EU, and the view by Russia (tail-spin to the maximum)....it's a woeful tale and really says a lot about crappy EU planning. They could have done this in minor steps, and spent an entire decade in a relaxed 'walk' to a EU partnership.
After the civil war started up? You can say a lot over Russian intentions and various groups having a Russian agenda in their hands.
The five years of Petro Poroshenko? The Russian problems simmered down. The EU was more careful to avoid any confrontation with Russia....maybe to the extent that they held any help to Ukraine to a bare minimum.
The thing is....all of these guys, from Macron, Merkel, Putin, Obama, and Trump....all 'BS' and talk hype. If you were longing for some 'gentle giant' and graceful dancing politician.....he or she simply don't exist.
The Germans now disgruntled and talking negative about Trump? Well....if you go back to November 2016....there hasn't been a single day that some German political figure hasn't 'dumped' on Trump. What's new?
So now....if Merkel was smart, she'd call up Volodymyr Zelensky, and hint that she wants to partner up with him to save the environment and hand five billion Euro to the Ukraine so that they could do their part on the C02 thing. She could tell him that Trump would never offer money like that.
The 'Box'
To be honest, if you bring up the city-bahn with Wiesbaden residents....it's about a 50-50 split, with some folks extremely negative about allowing a tram into the city.
Part of this negativity revolves around the idea that residents want to continue on with just bus service, and not add a 'noisy' tram system into the heart of the city.
I've stood and observed the 'box' at various locations (always public areas) and rarely do they ever have anyone stopping and asking questions. When you do see people there....it's mostly senior citizens (over the age of 70).
Allowing this to a public vote? I don't think the city council wants to take that chance. They want political consensus to occur, and three-quarters of the parties in the city group to sign on. So far, I don't think they've reached that level.
Why this tram thing goes on? Well....with 285,000 folks in the city, they've progressed up to the point of being one of the largest cities in Germany without a tram, subway, or city-line. There are several dedicated trains from the station which go to outer suburbs...but nothing really within the inside shadow of Wiesbaden. Mainz? Well....yeah, they've had a tram-line for decades and kinda laugh over this Wiesbaden argument.
So the 'box' maybe changing public perception? I have doubts.....it's probably a waste of money.
Communications Museum
I spent most of today at the Communications Museum, which exists here in Hessen.
Now, if you went to google it up....it'd show up in Heusenstamm (about 10 miles SE of Offenbach). And that's where my journey started out.
Well....two to three months ago, they packed up and moved to Frankfurt (along the river). Really nice building, although 'small' (the bulk of their collection simply can't be put out on the floor.
So I had to back-track and journey back to Frankfurt-City itself.
They've got a decent collection of German-made TVs and radios from the early era. Some of the German TVs actually go back to the late 1930s.
They also have a '330' model, which was the big cheapo radio that regular people could buy by 1927.Artsy TVs from the early 1960s? They've got those as well.
My advice on the museum? It's designed for young people (teens) but the collection is worth seeing. Southside of the river....there's at least ten museums within walking distance.
Cost? Five Euro per adult.
Parking is not that great, and it'd be better if you took the S-bahn into the city and walked over.
Time to allocate? Maybe two hours.
Lunch or snacks later? Cross the pedestrian bridge and go over to the Romer area.
Talking Real Estate
I was reading this morning through the German business news, and there was a curious item which popped up. It was a Focus article, which chatted about the economy, and the real estate market.
Unlike the Florida or California real estate market in the 1990s and up to 2008 (blasting away yearly with significant gains)....the German real estate market is on a slight up-tick yearly. You could buy a house in 2012 for 400,000 Euro, and probably find seven years later that it might have gone up to 420,000 Euro in that period (if you did nothing to add onto the house). Although you might go into the high-end condo market (say in Frankfurt) and in a seven-year period....find your place did go up in value by 25-percent....but that's a unique situation.
So the emphasis of this article is that the real estate market has hit the 'ceiling' and prices might drift downward for a while. They aren't suggesting a drastic drop in price, but things are basically in a stall-period.
They even go back to the 2010 period (the last real stall period) and project similar numbers.
This coupling with the projected recession? Well, maybe it's just a weird trend....or maybe it's part of the recession itself.
Unlike the Florida or California real estate market in the 1990s and up to 2008 (blasting away yearly with significant gains)....the German real estate market is on a slight up-tick yearly. You could buy a house in 2012 for 400,000 Euro, and probably find seven years later that it might have gone up to 420,000 Euro in that period (if you did nothing to add onto the house). Although you might go into the high-end condo market (say in Frankfurt) and in a seven-year period....find your place did go up in value by 25-percent....but that's a unique situation.
So the emphasis of this article is that the real estate market has hit the 'ceiling' and prices might drift downward for a while. They aren't suggesting a drastic drop in price, but things are basically in a stall-period.
They even go back to the 2010 period (the last real stall period) and project similar numbers.
This coupling with the projected recession? Well, maybe it's just a weird trend....or maybe it's part of the recession itself.
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Green Party Politics
Over the past year, it was pretty much believed that the Green Party of Germany would be settled with a leadership 'punch' of Habeck (their Chancellor candidate) and Baerbock (the party chief).
Well, in the past month....this odd thing has occurred. There is a challenge going on.
Ozdemir and his associate Kappert-Gonther got into the middle of party politics. Ozdemir is tossing his hat into the ring for the Chancellor candidate in the 2021 national election, and Kappert-Gonther would be the party chief.
It's an interesting twist. The German public TV folks have invested a lot of time over the past twelve months with Habeck and Baerbock appearing several times a month on various forum, chat, or entertainment-type shows.
Some folks would go and suggest that Habeck is now the most likely candidate to counter the CDU in 2021.....pushing the SPD down a notch or two.
Ozdemir? He was the Green Party candidate in 2017's election, and has been a shadow Transportation Minister player for the Green Party since that election. Among Turks, he rates favorably. Habeck? He rates more with teens or young voters.
If you follow the news folks for this week....they are a bit surprised that this discussion is going on, and that Ozdemir and Kappert-Gonther might pick up party votes.
Update: Today (Wed), the discussion ended....Ozdemir and Kappert-Gonther were voted down and their challenge is finished. I wouldn't see it as a big deal.
Well, in the past month....this odd thing has occurred. There is a challenge going on.
Ozdemir and his associate Kappert-Gonther got into the middle of party politics. Ozdemir is tossing his hat into the ring for the Chancellor candidate in the 2021 national election, and Kappert-Gonther would be the party chief.
It's an interesting twist. The German public TV folks have invested a lot of time over the past twelve months with Habeck and Baerbock appearing several times a month on various forum, chat, or entertainment-type shows.
Some folks would go and suggest that Habeck is now the most likely candidate to counter the CDU in 2021.....pushing the SPD down a notch or two.
Ozdemir? He was the Green Party candidate in 2017's election, and has been a shadow Transportation Minister player for the Green Party since that election. Among Turks, he rates favorably. Habeck? He rates more with teens or young voters.
If you follow the news folks for this week....they are a bit surprised that this discussion is going on, and that Ozdemir and Kappert-Gonther might pick up party votes.
Update: Today (Wed), the discussion ended....Ozdemir and Kappert-Gonther were voted down and their challenge is finished. I wouldn't see it as a big deal.
The UN Speech and Thoughts
After the watching the Greta Thunberg UN speech (all four minutes), I came to two observations:
1. It's funny how she came to condemn capitalism in the midst of this speech. It was capitalism that built the boat that brought her to New York City (in fact, a lot of capitalism). It was capitalism that provided wealth to her mother and father, to be at the positions of life that they are today. So you come to this complaint of hers over capitalism....if it's carved up enough and dismantled to some degree....all the trillions required to repair things to the degree she believes....WILL NOT exist.
Yes, that's the shocker. If capitalism now fails or some serious depression starts up, then the money for all these fantastic requirements will never exist, and we are truly doomed.
So maybe it's just me.....but if you hold dad's credit card to accomplish something....don't go and cut it up before using it. You might not want to whine over the dad's money or the stupid credit card.
2. I read through twenty-odd commentaries over the UN event from the various news groups and this odd word popped....pedophrasty.
It's not a word that I'd ever seen. So I had to go and look it up.
The best description is....you've got this public argument brewing, and some guy decides that he's going to go use juveniles (kids) to win the discussion. So you make up this agenda and argument.....with kids either arguing it for you or part of the background. You'd (the opposition) like to argue the points, stating some logical opposition....but if you go and do this....you look anti-juvenile or like some five-star asshole.
You can do this by having a briefing or graphic presentation....where kids are in the pictures (preferably starving or looking like welfare products). Or you can have the kids memorize Bible-verses to stake out the wonderful logic of Moses. Or you can bring on some Joan-of-Arc character to talk about the suffering of the masses.
The sad thing about this pedophrasty argument situation....roughly half of people recognize this.....with maybe a quarter of this group laughing over the tactic used, and the juvenile kid stuck with the save-mankind purpose in life.
What happens now? The Nobel Peace Prize people have their mission....getting Greta to the last big hurdle. My general belief is that Greta will have an emotional collapse episode within two years as she comes to realize that no nation is willing to spend trillions to save the world.
1. It's funny how she came to condemn capitalism in the midst of this speech. It was capitalism that built the boat that brought her to New York City (in fact, a lot of capitalism). It was capitalism that provided wealth to her mother and father, to be at the positions of life that they are today. So you come to this complaint of hers over capitalism....if it's carved up enough and dismantled to some degree....all the trillions required to repair things to the degree she believes....WILL NOT exist.
Yes, that's the shocker. If capitalism now fails or some serious depression starts up, then the money for all these fantastic requirements will never exist, and we are truly doomed.
So maybe it's just me.....but if you hold dad's credit card to accomplish something....don't go and cut it up before using it. You might not want to whine over the dad's money or the stupid credit card.
2. I read through twenty-odd commentaries over the UN event from the various news groups and this odd word popped....pedophrasty.
It's not a word that I'd ever seen. So I had to go and look it up.
The best description is....you've got this public argument brewing, and some guy decides that he's going to go use juveniles (kids) to win the discussion. So you make up this agenda and argument.....with kids either arguing it for you or part of the background. You'd (the opposition) like to argue the points, stating some logical opposition....but if you go and do this....you look anti-juvenile or like some five-star asshole.
You can do this by having a briefing or graphic presentation....where kids are in the pictures (preferably starving or looking like welfare products). Or you can have the kids memorize Bible-verses to stake out the wonderful logic of Moses. Or you can bring on some Joan-of-Arc character to talk about the suffering of the masses.
The sad thing about this pedophrasty argument situation....roughly half of people recognize this.....with maybe a quarter of this group laughing over the tactic used, and the juvenile kid stuck with the save-mankind purpose in life.
What happens now? The Nobel Peace Prize people have their mission....getting Greta to the last big hurdle. My general belief is that Greta will have an emotional collapse episode within two years as she comes to realize that no nation is willing to spend trillions to save the world.
Greta's Complaint
It's a bit amusing today to wake up and look at the top ten headlines in Germany, and there is this 'complaint' story that has been lodged with the UN....over the nation of Germany by Greta Thunberg. Yes, Greta, along with some kids....wrote up a formal complaint against Germany, France, Argentina, Brazil and Turkey. The basis of the complaint....NOT enough has been done to solve climate control and C02 issues.
What'll happen now? Behind this is some unknown and unpublished law firm. Normally, law firms don't do work for free, so I'm kinda wondering about the agenda and who exactly is paying for this work.
My guess is that some UN committee will get the formal complaint, and go spend a year investigating it. Asking Chancellor Merkel questions? No....I kinda doubt that. They will come to the Environmental Minister (SPD Party gal) and ask formal questions of her, and she will say that not enough is being done. Then what?
Some UN committee by summer of 2020 will hype up a bit of negativity over the five nations, and oddly enough....play out a political game. Remember, the next German national election is the fall of 2021, and the next French national election is the spring of 2022. Brazil? October of 2022. Argentina? Fall of 2023.
Why not include the US? Unknown.
What'll happen now? Behind this is some unknown and unpublished law firm. Normally, law firms don't do work for free, so I'm kinda wondering about the agenda and who exactly is paying for this work.
My guess is that some UN committee will get the formal complaint, and go spend a year investigating it. Asking Chancellor Merkel questions? No....I kinda doubt that. They will come to the Environmental Minister (SPD Party gal) and ask formal questions of her, and she will say that not enough is being done. Then what?
Some UN committee by summer of 2020 will hype up a bit of negativity over the five nations, and oddly enough....play out a political game. Remember, the next German national election is the fall of 2021, and the next French national election is the spring of 2022. Brazil? October of 2022. Argentina? Fall of 2023.
Why not include the US? Unknown.
A Patience Story
We had an episode occur Saturday in Wiesbaden which spoke a good bit about patience or the lack of patience.
For years in Wiesbaden, we generally averaged maybe four or five protests or demonstrations a year. It was typically (say 90-percent of the time) always labor or union demonstrations.
In the last five years? It's warped-up and there's probably near forty to fifty protests or demonstrations a year now. The Kurds, the right-wing, the left-wing, the labor folks, the environmentalists, the Greta-kids, and so on.
Well....on Saturday, near the underground parking of the Casino....we had this episode develop.
An older German lady (75 years old) was finished with her business in the Casino building (it might have been coffee or lunch with a friend), and desired to leave/exit. The problem? Well....another protest action was taking place on Wilhelmstrasse. Some bicyclist (a guy in his 30s) blocked this exit point onto the main street.
It appears (at least by the way journalists tell the story), the old lady tried to get out and humbly ask the guy to move and let her pass. He apparently didn't see her need to exit onto the street. So after a couple of attempts on niceness....she got back into the car, and eased the car onto the bike....knocking the guy over.....then driving off.
The bike guy says he was injured, and the bike itself was damaged.
Cops? Well....they have the tag number and are pursuing an investigation. Charges are probably going to occur. But I'm guessing the older gal will have an attorney and he will pursue some minor charge on the bicyclist for illegally blocking traffic.
The sad thing is that all of this will go to some courtroom, and involve a judge for an hour. The old gal might lose her license (harming a person with a car is an issue). The judge will ask the bicyclist why he didn't move, and he won't have a clear answer. Illegally blocking traffic is a point on the driver's program.
So, you stand and admire this landscape, and the fact that as more protests and demonstrations occur.....drivers in the city are losing an 'ounce' or two of patience with its demonstration. You get blocked off for 30 to 60 minutes. You miss an appointment because of this action. You have to plan around your day with projected protests as part of the weekly agenda in the city. All of this will lead to people having the judgement of the old lady in this case.....pushing the protester out of the way.
2020? Oh I'd take a guess that we will go well beyond sixty protests or demonstrations for the year. Eventually, we'll even have protests against the protests.
For years in Wiesbaden, we generally averaged maybe four or five protests or demonstrations a year. It was typically (say 90-percent of the time) always labor or union demonstrations.
In the last five years? It's warped-up and there's probably near forty to fifty protests or demonstrations a year now. The Kurds, the right-wing, the left-wing, the labor folks, the environmentalists, the Greta-kids, and so on.
Well....on Saturday, near the underground parking of the Casino....we had this episode develop.
An older German lady (75 years old) was finished with her business in the Casino building (it might have been coffee or lunch with a friend), and desired to leave/exit. The problem? Well....another protest action was taking place on Wilhelmstrasse. Some bicyclist (a guy in his 30s) blocked this exit point onto the main street.
It appears (at least by the way journalists tell the story), the old lady tried to get out and humbly ask the guy to move and let her pass. He apparently didn't see her need to exit onto the street. So after a couple of attempts on niceness....she got back into the car, and eased the car onto the bike....knocking the guy over.....then driving off.
The bike guy says he was injured, and the bike itself was damaged.
Cops? Well....they have the tag number and are pursuing an investigation. Charges are probably going to occur. But I'm guessing the older gal will have an attorney and he will pursue some minor charge on the bicyclist for illegally blocking traffic.
The sad thing is that all of this will go to some courtroom, and involve a judge for an hour. The old gal might lose her license (harming a person with a car is an issue). The judge will ask the bicyclist why he didn't move, and he won't have a clear answer. Illegally blocking traffic is a point on the driver's program.
So, you stand and admire this landscape, and the fact that as more protests and demonstrations occur.....drivers in the city are losing an 'ounce' or two of patience with its demonstration. You get blocked off for 30 to 60 minutes. You miss an appointment because of this action. You have to plan around your day with projected protests as part of the weekly agenda in the city. All of this will lead to people having the judgement of the old lady in this case.....pushing the protester out of the way.
2020? Oh I'd take a guess that we will go well beyond sixty protests or demonstrations for the year. Eventually, we'll even have protests against the protests.
Poland Update
It's not front-page news but it has an affect on Germany. The US and Poland announced another signed deal....shifting troops out of Germany, and into Poland.
The deal? There's going to be a joint US-Poland combat training center established in Drawsko Pomorskie. It's located on the far NW end of Poland....roughly 10,000 residents there.
There's also another 1,000 Army troops to be moved out of Germany, into Poland.
Strachowice Airport in Warsaw? It's now supposed to be a future base for the US Air Force.
Wroclaw is intended as a future base for loading and unloading the air force.
Lask, Poland? There will be a US drone squadron placed there.
Finally, there is open discussion of a US armored brigade to move somewhere into Poland. It's a curious thing....the last US armored brigade in Europe....left six years ago.
A large US footprint? No. Once you look at the numbers and add in a potential armored brigade, this probably does not exceed 10,000 total, and the vast majority would come out of Germany.
The deal? There's going to be a joint US-Poland combat training center established in Drawsko Pomorskie. It's located on the far NW end of Poland....roughly 10,000 residents there.
There's also another 1,000 Army troops to be moved out of Germany, into Poland.
Strachowice Airport in Warsaw? It's now supposed to be a future base for the US Air Force.
Wroclaw is intended as a future base for loading and unloading the air force.
Lask, Poland? There will be a US drone squadron placed there.
Finally, there is open discussion of a US armored brigade to move somewhere into Poland. It's a curious thing....the last US armored brigade in Europe....left six years ago.
A large US footprint? No. Once you look at the numbers and add in a potential armored brigade, this probably does not exceed 10,000 total, and the vast majority would come out of Germany.
Monday, September 23, 2019
The Welfare Story
Over the weekend, several news sources from here in Germany chatted about this statistical number.....three-quarters of all working-age Syrians here in Germany....are on full-or-partial Hartz IV (the German welfare program).
Chief reason? It goes to various factors....to include job-training delays, language programs, and jobs available.
Hurting the pro-asylum 'slant'? Well....Germans can accept the idea of welfare coverage for two or three years upon arrival. But if you've reach five years, and the guy is still on Hartz IV.....it leaves a very negative view of accepting more immigrants.
Most Syrians will tell you in blunt language....Germany is a heck of a lot more expensive than Syria, and just finding a decent apartment requires a crazy amount of money.
Chief reason? It goes to various factors....to include job-training delays, language programs, and jobs available.
Hurting the pro-asylum 'slant'? Well....Germans can accept the idea of welfare coverage for two or three years upon arrival. But if you've reach five years, and the guy is still on Hartz IV.....it leaves a very negative view of accepting more immigrants.
Most Syrians will tell you in blunt language....Germany is a heck of a lot more expensive than Syria, and just finding a decent apartment requires a crazy amount of money.
The One-Day War
My German wife brought up this news item from the German business news today....that all total, if you count the German Army, Air Force and Navy.....they have enough munitions (bombs, rockets, bullets) to carry on operations for one single day.
It's a bit comical to admit this, but the real question here....ought to be....why bother having a one-day Army or a one-day Navy? Shouldn't you just dismiss various generals and commanders, and just operate with three-hundred Germans as the entire military?
The value to NATO? Zero.
But there is a positive side to this story....there is no chance that Germany will ever be a threat to any neighbor.
It's a bit comical to admit this, but the real question here....ought to be....why bother having a one-day Army or a one-day Navy? Shouldn't you just dismiss various generals and commanders, and just operate with three-hundred Germans as the entire military?
The value to NATO? Zero.
But there is a positive side to this story....there is no chance that Germany will ever be a threat to any neighbor.
Sunday, September 22, 2019
Electrical Story
There's a news piece this weekend in Germany discussing the average electrical pricing (over the past year). ARD reports this, and the kWH rate is 38.5 Euro cents.
I pulled up the rate for my original home-state in the US (Alabama), and compared it. There is a base-charge for each month of $14.95. Then the kWH rate for the first 1000 kWH is .1022 cents, and after the first thousand KWH, it's .1047 cents. Of course, the cheaper rate in this case is mostly because of nuke-power.
Germans tend to grumble about the rate, and how it's escalated over the past two decades. One of the trends that it's triggered....everyone is hyped up to buy new freezers and refrigerators.....to get units which consume less power.
I pulled up the rate for my original home-state in the US (Alabama), and compared it. There is a base-charge for each month of $14.95. Then the kWH rate for the first 1000 kWH is .1022 cents, and after the first thousand KWH, it's .1047 cents. Of course, the cheaper rate in this case is mostly because of nuke-power.
Germans tend to grumble about the rate, and how it's escalated over the past two decades. One of the trends that it's triggered....everyone is hyped up to buy new freezers and refrigerators.....to get units which consume less power.
Taxation and the EU
There's been a suggestion put out there by the Merkel coalition government to the EU on 'taxation'. Basically, they want a limit of 1-percent GDP, that would be handed to the EU.
Reaction so far....it's not exactly something that the EU likes because it'll mean less money in the long-run. Some folks admit that this rule should have been created years ago, to prevent the current issues that exist today.
Acceptance? The controlling block of the EU probably can pass this.
Problems? Well....if a recession starts up and you had your GDP drop like a rock for a year or two....it'd be a disaster for the EU to handle their budget and the cuts required.
If you go and analyze the incoming funds and outgoing funds....Germany and France will typically get about 70-percent of what they send the EU back....in project money (museums, airports, roads, bridges, etc). Some will be spent on the EU operations itself, and then the rest shipped off to poorer countries...like Greece or Croatia.
Reaction so far....it's not exactly something that the EU likes because it'll mean less money in the long-run. Some folks admit that this rule should have been created years ago, to prevent the current issues that exist today.
Acceptance? The controlling block of the EU probably can pass this.
Problems? Well....if a recession starts up and you had your GDP drop like a rock for a year or two....it'd be a disaster for the EU to handle their budget and the cuts required.
If you go and analyze the incoming funds and outgoing funds....Germany and France will typically get about 70-percent of what they send the EU back....in project money (museums, airports, roads, bridges, etc). Some will be spent on the EU operations itself, and then the rest shipped off to poorer countries...like Greece or Croatia.
A C02 Conversation
Some German PhD guys went and did a carbon footprint study over beer and marijuana. Yes, Germans are now consumed with the carbon business, and it's probably going to lead to a number of heated conversations.
RBB (the Berlin public TV folks) carried the story.
So the evidence and conclusion? Beer consumes less C02 to exist in the end-product. A lot depends on the growth method of the weed, and the packaging of the beer. But in the end....beer won.
So if you were concerned about the environment and C02.....should you stop using weed, and switch to strictly beer? That's the real question here.
RBB (the Berlin public TV folks) carried the story.
So the evidence and conclusion? Beer consumes less C02 to exist in the end-product. A lot depends on the growth method of the weed, and the packaging of the beer. But in the end....beer won.
So if you were concerned about the environment and C02.....should you stop using weed, and switch to strictly beer? That's the real question here.
The Jets (Plural)
Correction: An update to this story (12 hours later), there's actually four different ministers or VIPs of the German government flying three different German government jets to the US at the same general time period. To some degree, it's freaking out the pro-environmental folks.
Coming up this next week.....two bigwigs of the German government are set to fly into the US for meetings. Chancellor Merkel on one jet, and the Defense Minister (AKK) on the second jet.
So, some environmentalists have picked up this topic and asked....why this enormous carbon footprint with two jets? They have a valid point.
What the government doesn't really want to say or admit in public? They have such a lousy record and low confidence feeling over the VIP jets....that I suspect if one of them breaks down....they would be able to bring both back on the 2nd jet.
I know, it's rather silly....but over the past four years....there's probably been at least five occasions where the VIP jets broke down at the destination, and in one case....Merkel was left on the ground for two extra days. The Foreign Minister was stuck for an extra 24 hours in some African country recently because of a breakdown. It has been embarrassing for the government to handle.
Coming up this next week.....two bigwigs of the German government are set to fly into the US for meetings. Chancellor Merkel on one jet, and the Defense Minister (AKK) on the second jet.
So, some environmentalists have picked up this topic and asked....why this enormous carbon footprint with two jets? They have a valid point.
What the government doesn't really want to say or admit in public? They have such a lousy record and low confidence feeling over the VIP jets....that I suspect if one of them breaks down....they would be able to bring both back on the 2nd jet.
I know, it's rather silly....but over the past four years....there's probably been at least five occasions where the VIP jets broke down at the destination, and in one case....Merkel was left on the ground for two extra days. The Foreign Minister was stuck for an extra 24 hours in some African country recently because of a breakdown. It has been embarrassing for the government to handle.
Saturday, September 21, 2019
ISIS Mess Left To Clean Up
So with ISIS pretty much defeated in Syria and Iraq, there's this one central issue that is going to drive the EU and member states into a 'tizzy'.
Syrians....or the SDF folks (the Kurdish military folks in Syria)....hold around 800 Europeans as prisoners. They don't want to really mess with them.
The US has attempted to have chats with the EU, and a couple of countries.....to simply take back their people. So far, no one wants to discuss this matter.
The threat by President Trump? He's saying that he just might dump the ISIS guys on the frontier of Europe (as a threat).
Back in 2014, with the ISIS civil war going on....there were various young guys from Germany who'd gone off to fight in the war. The majority of them have died. The German view of this mess? They really don't want these guys who survived...back. Even if you created a war court and associated crimes with these guys....no one is sure about convictions or how you'd hold these guys.
My suggestion? I'd go and pick up the 800 and transport them off the coast of Libya.....where these refugee rafts tend to 'rescue' people and just let the European rescue boat system rescue the war prisoners.....taking them into Italy, and just test the system to see how long it'd take for the EU to realize they'd rescued the very people they really don't want back into their country.
Syrians....or the SDF folks (the Kurdish military folks in Syria)....hold around 800 Europeans as prisoners. They don't want to really mess with them.
The US has attempted to have chats with the EU, and a couple of countries.....to simply take back their people. So far, no one wants to discuss this matter.
The threat by President Trump? He's saying that he just might dump the ISIS guys on the frontier of Europe (as a threat).
Back in 2014, with the ISIS civil war going on....there were various young guys from Germany who'd gone off to fight in the war. The majority of them have died. The German view of this mess? They really don't want these guys who survived...back. Even if you created a war court and associated crimes with these guys....no one is sure about convictions or how you'd hold these guys.
My suggestion? I'd go and pick up the 800 and transport them off the coast of Libya.....where these refugee rafts tend to 'rescue' people and just let the European rescue boat system rescue the war prisoners.....taking them into Italy, and just test the system to see how long it'd take for the EU to realize they'd rescued the very people they really don't want back into their country.
The 'Mysterious' C02 Certificate Plan
The one piece of the Merkel team project that was just left out there and barely explained by any journalist or news organization....was this C02 certificate idea.
There's supposed to be a cap on carbon emissions via transportation and construction. You'd have to buy or trade a certificate....in order to achieve any planned future situation. This would be on some market, and traded for value.
The various effects of this certificate business?
Well....if you go down the path....the cost of living for regular Germans would have to go up. Amount? Unknown. It might be just one-percent. It might be ten-to-twenty percent.
Slowing down construction? No one can say if it'd be a factor in hindering future construction. But it would make any renovation project more demanding.
Who would end up getting end of this rope? Consumers. If there is any cost or any rise....just plain regular consumers would be dragged in and pay the added cost. Maybe the politicians might say they'd find a way to screw companies and hand them the bill....but companies won't absorb costs....they will pass them onto the consumers.
All of this a long-term problem in terms of competition among the other European countries? Well....if you are the only one playing this game, and the competition countries (like Poland) refuse....what exactly do you think will happen? As for the EU adapting to this? By the EU rules....all members have to agree to a rule change, and I just don't see a broad complete agreement on this.
This C02 certificate plan being the first part of the plan to crumble? I'd give that favorable odds.
There's supposed to be a cap on carbon emissions via transportation and construction. You'd have to buy or trade a certificate....in order to achieve any planned future situation. This would be on some market, and traded for value.
The various effects of this certificate business?
Well....if you go down the path....the cost of living for regular Germans would have to go up. Amount? Unknown. It might be just one-percent. It might be ten-to-twenty percent.
Slowing down construction? No one can say if it'd be a factor in hindering future construction. But it would make any renovation project more demanding.
Who would end up getting end of this rope? Consumers. If there is any cost or any rise....just plain regular consumers would be dragged in and pay the added cost. Maybe the politicians might say they'd find a way to screw companies and hand them the bill....but companies won't absorb costs....they will pass them onto the consumers.
All of this a long-term problem in terms of competition among the other European countries? Well....if you are the only one playing this game, and the competition countries (like Poland) refuse....what exactly do you think will happen? As for the EU adapting to this? By the EU rules....all members have to agree to a rule change, and I just don't see a broad complete agreement on this.
This C02 certificate plan being the first part of the plan to crumble? I'd give that favorable odds.
The Forty Billion Euro Criticism
As part of the big German government 'save-the-Earth' package that the Merkel team (the coalition of the CDU-CSU-SPD parties) reached....the money amount for the next four years is forty billion Euro that the government will devote to this effort.
When the smoke had cleared, the opposition parties (the Greens and Linke) stood, along with most all pro-environmentalists and were shocked at the 'minuscule' amount. In their mind, this needed to be a monumental amount. Few would say an amount in public, but you get the idea it needed to be in the range of 300 to 400 billion Euro for the four-year period. Why? Well, that's not exactly clear....maybe it's just the more-money-more-stuff thinking.
So we can ask the question....why couldn't Chancellor Merkel go toward the 300 to 400 billion Euro, and it's a curious situation that has occurred. There is a bit of history attached.
You see....virtually every time some emergency or chaotic event occurred....the Merkel method for pleasing the public and upset politicians....was to lay down some funding.
When the refugees started to roll in around 2014, and the German states demanded more cash to cover expenses....the Chancellor had to package up a couple of billion Euro per year for those expenses, and that continues on....even today.
When the path for refugees was determined to be Turkey.....she approached the EU and created a 'slush' fund to pay Turkey to halt the path....which involves the EU paying Turkey around 3 billion Euro a year. A large chunk of that money, comes from the German government.
When Germans perceived more crime, which might have related to the migrant crisis, the Chancellor agreed to fund more cops (10,000 for the sixteen states are to be hired), and that involved more federal funding.....which the Chancellor agreed to.
The railway infrastructure crisis? Billions have been promised in the past year or so....to cover that expense.
The nursing crisis? Billions had to be flushed into some package to hire up a fair number of non-Germans for those jobs.
When the decision came to shutting down the nuke plants early, and they handed the bill over to the government.....who paid? Well.....those 'clean-up billions' came out of the general budget.
When the decision was made to shut down the coal plants and coal fields in three regions of Germany early....a bill was prepared and billions were set to flow for that expense.
Money set up to convince African countries to hold back their migration folks attempting to go to Germany? Yes, that was another package of state funding.
Cash to loan Greece because of their financial mess from six years ago? Yeah, that was another money package for the Germans to fund.
The EU money necessary after the UK leaves? Well, that's discussed a good bit by journalists, and it's figured to be around 10 billion Euro a year extra.....that Germany has to find and funnel toward the EU requirement....to make up for the Brit loss.
So you come to Trump and military spending. The Germans (almost a decade ago) signed up to say they'd pay 2-percent of the GDP toward their military. They've yet to do it. That's about the only thing which the Chancellor hasn't fixed up a package for, and frankly....it's not a priority with them.
The pension crowd who are border-line welfare cases? The welfare crowd complaining over crappy state money allocations? They are standing in line and expecting something to be done over their problems.
The Merkel team has laid out a ton of cash over the past decade to cover various problems and frankly doesn't have the 300 to 400 billion Euro that you might expect because they've already signed up for things. Raising taxes? They've already done that to some degree, and grasp that some companies aren't that secure in their business front. BREXIT on the horizon, and a predicted recession? This would not be the time to set up more taxation.
Maybe there is some honest criticism, but in some ways, the German government has crossed some bridges and burned them already.
When the smoke had cleared, the opposition parties (the Greens and Linke) stood, along with most all pro-environmentalists and were shocked at the 'minuscule' amount. In their mind, this needed to be a monumental amount. Few would say an amount in public, but you get the idea it needed to be in the range of 300 to 400 billion Euro for the four-year period. Why? Well, that's not exactly clear....maybe it's just the more-money-more-stuff thinking.
So we can ask the question....why couldn't Chancellor Merkel go toward the 300 to 400 billion Euro, and it's a curious situation that has occurred. There is a bit of history attached.
You see....virtually every time some emergency or chaotic event occurred....the Merkel method for pleasing the public and upset politicians....was to lay down some funding.
When the refugees started to roll in around 2014, and the German states demanded more cash to cover expenses....the Chancellor had to package up a couple of billion Euro per year for those expenses, and that continues on....even today.
When the path for refugees was determined to be Turkey.....she approached the EU and created a 'slush' fund to pay Turkey to halt the path....which involves the EU paying Turkey around 3 billion Euro a year. A large chunk of that money, comes from the German government.
When Germans perceived more crime, which might have related to the migrant crisis, the Chancellor agreed to fund more cops (10,000 for the sixteen states are to be hired), and that involved more federal funding.....which the Chancellor agreed to.
The railway infrastructure crisis? Billions have been promised in the past year or so....to cover that expense.
The nursing crisis? Billions had to be flushed into some package to hire up a fair number of non-Germans for those jobs.
When the decision came to shutting down the nuke plants early, and they handed the bill over to the government.....who paid? Well.....those 'clean-up billions' came out of the general budget.
When the decision was made to shut down the coal plants and coal fields in three regions of Germany early....a bill was prepared and billions were set to flow for that expense.
Money set up to convince African countries to hold back their migration folks attempting to go to Germany? Yes, that was another package of state funding.
Cash to loan Greece because of their financial mess from six years ago? Yeah, that was another money package for the Germans to fund.
The EU money necessary after the UK leaves? Well, that's discussed a good bit by journalists, and it's figured to be around 10 billion Euro a year extra.....that Germany has to find and funnel toward the EU requirement....to make up for the Brit loss.
So you come to Trump and military spending. The Germans (almost a decade ago) signed up to say they'd pay 2-percent of the GDP toward their military. They've yet to do it. That's about the only thing which the Chancellor hasn't fixed up a package for, and frankly....it's not a priority with them.
The pension crowd who are border-line welfare cases? The welfare crowd complaining over crappy state money allocations? They are standing in line and expecting something to be done over their problems.
The Merkel team has laid out a ton of cash over the past decade to cover various problems and frankly doesn't have the 300 to 400 billion Euro that you might expect because they've already signed up for things. Raising taxes? They've already done that to some degree, and grasp that some companies aren't that secure in their business front. BREXIT on the horizon, and a predicted recession? This would not be the time to set up more taxation.
Maybe there is some honest criticism, but in some ways, the German government has crossed some bridges and burned them already.
Friday, September 20, 2019
Soccer Story
It's a sports story that has serious implications.
The 2024 European Soccer Championship is not that far away, and the bidding for the television rights came up this week.
Who won? In 99-percent of all big sports events that occur these days.....ARD/ZDF (the public TV folks) would bid and win. Well....they didn't win this time.
Telekom.....the telephone 'giant' won.
All 51 games will be theirs to televise. The strategy? No one knows for sure. I'm guessing you will have to sign up to a package deal, via your streaming service. Pricing at this point? Unknown.
A shock for ARD/ZDF? They are likely sitting there and wondering how this goes for the other major sports. Could Telekom crack the sport business, and steal viewers away from public TV? It's possible.
The 2024 European Soccer Championship is not that far away, and the bidding for the television rights came up this week.
Who won? In 99-percent of all big sports events that occur these days.....ARD/ZDF (the public TV folks) would bid and win. Well....they didn't win this time.
Telekom.....the telephone 'giant' won.
All 51 games will be theirs to televise. The strategy? No one knows for sure. I'm guessing you will have to sign up to a package deal, via your streaming service. Pricing at this point? Unknown.
A shock for ARD/ZDF? They are likely sitting there and wondering how this goes for the other major sports. Could Telekom crack the sport business, and steal viewers away from public TV? It's possible.
Tree Chatter
There's a meeting to be held next week in Berlin which will have a twist or two tied to it. It's a 'woods meeting', where various public and private forest owners, along with state officials from the sixteen states, and some federal folks will meet and talk about reforestation.
I noted this brought up today....the state of Saarland (to the far west of Germany).....while small for its size....has the highest proportion of deciduous trees in Germany. You can refer this type as the non-pine type, or the ones which lose their leaves each fall.
If you've never been to the Saarland, I would strongly recommend a trip through it. It is a bit rural....I will emphasize that ahead of time.
There is a plan underway by the Merkel coalition and called the 'master-plan', which has around ten points to it. One of the points, which Germany wants the states and forest owners to take up....is a massive million-trees to be planted idea.
The cost of this million-tree idea? The federal government would match up funds with the state governments. Who'd do the planting? That's the unknown part of the story. Maybe you could entice some youth groups to come out on Friday afternoons, instead of the strike business....to just go and plant trees instead. Or maybe you could entice the Hartz IV welfare recipients to take up a month of tree planting for a supplement allowance.
I noted this brought up today....the state of Saarland (to the far west of Germany).....while small for its size....has the highest proportion of deciduous trees in Germany. You can refer this type as the non-pine type, or the ones which lose their leaves each fall.
If you've never been to the Saarland, I would strongly recommend a trip through it. It is a bit rural....I will emphasize that ahead of time.
There is a plan underway by the Merkel coalition and called the 'master-plan', which has around ten points to it. One of the points, which Germany wants the states and forest owners to take up....is a massive million-trees to be planted idea.
The cost of this million-tree idea? The federal government would match up funds with the state governments. Who'd do the planting? That's the unknown part of the story. Maybe you could entice some youth groups to come out on Friday afternoons, instead of the strike business....to just go and plant trees instead. Or maybe you could entice the Hartz IV welfare recipients to take up a month of tree planting for a supplement allowance.
Talking Over GDP
I often essay a good bit over German economic growth and trends. One of the more interesting trends that exists and says a good bit about German 'stability' and public happiness.....is the GDP trends since the 1970s.
You can count almost twenty years since 1970 where the GDP trend was 4-percent or more.
Since the summer of 2010? That's another of the better numbers to bring up....with Germany being on the plus-side of zero or more on GDP growth for that period. Naturally, I'll admit the 2008-2009 period was a crappy period, and bouncing around minus-six to minus-eight percent on GDP.
Right now for 2019? The numbers are still in the positive trend.....with 1.1-percent through late summer. The predictions of analysts for 2020? There are still a handful who think the recession chatter will correct itself if BREXIT is settled in some happy way, with 2020 GDP talk suggesting as high as 1.5-percent.
You can count almost twenty years since 1970 where the GDP trend was 4-percent or more.
Since the summer of 2010? That's another of the better numbers to bring up....with Germany being on the plus-side of zero or more on GDP growth for that period. Naturally, I'll admit the 2008-2009 period was a crappy period, and bouncing around minus-six to minus-eight percent on GDP.
Right now for 2019? The numbers are still in the positive trend.....with 1.1-percent through late summer. The predictions of analysts for 2020? There are still a handful who think the recession chatter will correct itself if BREXIT is settled in some happy way, with 2020 GDP talk suggesting as high as 1.5-percent.
How to Sell Battery Car Desires to the Public?
This is one of my open-ended essays on the topic of battery cars/e-cars, and how the desire just isn't there for them. And I'm going to suggest five things to reverse that trend along the way.
1. Cost. Lets be honest.....the German pricing of the Tesla 3 model is around 54,000 Euro (with the VAT, as of spring of 2019). You can buy the Nissan Leaf for around 36,000 Euro (VAT included), which is still a fair amount of money. There is a no-name German brand out there in the 15,000 Euro (VAT included) range, but it's also a low range vehicle and not likely to interest that many people.
So for the typical middle-class guy, the basic brands are pricey and not going to really interest the majority of Germans.....unless you clear more than 30,000 Euro a year after taxes.
So a credit is necessary? More or less, you need to approach Germans and offer them either a 8,000 Euro cash deal on the car purchase, or a year-to-year tax credit of 1,000 Euro a year on your income taxes. You'd have to stage this for a minimum of five years....maybe even ten.
2. Public charging stations. A year ago (Sep 2018) in Germany.....there were a total of roughly 18,000 charging public 'points' in Germany (some were a single station with five to ten chargers). Some grocery stores are putting up the chargers, along with autobahn restaurants going on this trend as well.
Today, the coalition government said in a bold way that they were aiming at a million charger points over the next two to three years.
To be honest here, you'd have to go and plan at least half-a-million of these along the autobahn routes of Germany.....alone. Just in the city of Wiesbaden, there'd probably have to be in the range of 500 public charging points.
But this brings up the cost of the public charging points....will there be serious profit-measures built into this, and turn off the general public?
3. Private charging stations. If you add up the charger itself, and the professional electrician required....it's upward to 1,200 to 1,400 Euro involved....to put one single charger onto a German house. If you rent out an apartment in the house (often common), then your effort will have to include a charging station for your renter. If you offer two parking spots for the renter, and he wants another 2nd charger for his deal? That's probably another cost item.
The government needs some kind of tax credit sitting there for enticing people to put the charger units into their house.
4. Adding solar panels onto a house and connected to the charging stations. This is another point where some kind of tax-credit incentive needs to be created, and offered for at least five to ten years....getting people onto more solar energy.
5. Finally, in present-day Germany.....the electrical rates compared against all of the European countries is awful high. Tossing out nuke-energy and coal-energy? Well, it just sped up the cost-rate for electrical power. Even if you convinced people to go onto solar, the cost factor of installation, and the lowering of normal-grid users.....it will simply drive power costs up even more.
You need someone with authority in the German government to come up to the front of the room.....lay out the grid, and start talking about the cost, and where it's going for the next twenty years. If the talk suggests that electrical costs will continue along this line and keep increasing.....you need to bring the government to change, and force reality upon them.
If you end up owning an electrical vehicle (costing more than a gas car), and the mileage-to-electrical costs is more than gas.....then why would I ever go and buy an e-car? It makes no sense. If you've got a stupid electrical grid policy....fire that crew, and start looking for someone who can resolve this mess, and make the whole ownership thing worth the effort.
1. Cost. Lets be honest.....the German pricing of the Tesla 3 model is around 54,000 Euro (with the VAT, as of spring of 2019). You can buy the Nissan Leaf for around 36,000 Euro (VAT included), which is still a fair amount of money. There is a no-name German brand out there in the 15,000 Euro (VAT included) range, but it's also a low range vehicle and not likely to interest that many people.
So for the typical middle-class guy, the basic brands are pricey and not going to really interest the majority of Germans.....unless you clear more than 30,000 Euro a year after taxes.
So a credit is necessary? More or less, you need to approach Germans and offer them either a 8,000 Euro cash deal on the car purchase, or a year-to-year tax credit of 1,000 Euro a year on your income taxes. You'd have to stage this for a minimum of five years....maybe even ten.
2. Public charging stations. A year ago (Sep 2018) in Germany.....there were a total of roughly 18,000 charging public 'points' in Germany (some were a single station with five to ten chargers). Some grocery stores are putting up the chargers, along with autobahn restaurants going on this trend as well.
Today, the coalition government said in a bold way that they were aiming at a million charger points over the next two to three years.
To be honest here, you'd have to go and plan at least half-a-million of these along the autobahn routes of Germany.....alone. Just in the city of Wiesbaden, there'd probably have to be in the range of 500 public charging points.
But this brings up the cost of the public charging points....will there be serious profit-measures built into this, and turn off the general public?
3. Private charging stations. If you add up the charger itself, and the professional electrician required....it's upward to 1,200 to 1,400 Euro involved....to put one single charger onto a German house. If you rent out an apartment in the house (often common), then your effort will have to include a charging station for your renter. If you offer two parking spots for the renter, and he wants another 2nd charger for his deal? That's probably another cost item.
The government needs some kind of tax credit sitting there for enticing people to put the charger units into their house.
4. Adding solar panels onto a house and connected to the charging stations. This is another point where some kind of tax-credit incentive needs to be created, and offered for at least five to ten years....getting people onto more solar energy.
5. Finally, in present-day Germany.....the electrical rates compared against all of the European countries is awful high. Tossing out nuke-energy and coal-energy? Well, it just sped up the cost-rate for electrical power. Even if you convinced people to go onto solar, the cost factor of installation, and the lowering of normal-grid users.....it will simply drive power costs up even more.
You need someone with authority in the German government to come up to the front of the room.....lay out the grid, and start talking about the cost, and where it's going for the next twenty years. If the talk suggests that electrical costs will continue along this line and keep increasing.....you need to bring the government to change, and force reality upon them.
If you end up owning an electrical vehicle (costing more than a gas car), and the mileage-to-electrical costs is more than gas.....then why would I ever go and buy an e-car? It makes no sense. If you've got a stupid electrical grid policy....fire that crew, and start looking for someone who can resolve this mess, and make the whole ownership thing worth the effort.
Gallows Story
I won't post the picture because I think it's pretty bizarre. Today in Berlin, as part of the Greta business....Fridays For the Future....three German students (probably around the ages of 16 to 18).....got help in setting up a gallows 'stage' with three ropes hanging down, and then had the help to put nooses around their necks. They then stood there for a number of minutes to pose with the nooses and send some type of 'climate-change-message' to the public.
So there's the image....three German teenies with nooses on, and part of the new climate 'battle'. The image? I would imagine it'll be used for various German magazines like Spiegel, Stern, or Focus for next week's cover page.
The location of the gallows? Well...right across from the Brandenburg Gate (central Berlin) where just about every tourists is wandering about in the middle of the day. So these Chinese tourists will be standing there and looking at this, and in their mind.....thinking whacko kids.
The problem I see is that a number of German older adults will open to chat about the way things were in the 1930s of Germany and how public executions and gallows were a serious part of life. It's not something you want to fake-off or use for some protest action like this.
So there's the image....three German teenies with nooses on, and part of the new climate 'battle'. The image? I would imagine it'll be used for various German magazines like Spiegel, Stern, or Focus for next week's cover page.
The location of the gallows? Well...right across from the Brandenburg Gate (central Berlin) where just about every tourists is wandering about in the middle of the day. So these Chinese tourists will be standing there and looking at this, and in their mind.....thinking whacko kids.
The problem I see is that a number of German older adults will open to chat about the way things were in the 1930s of Germany and how public executions and gallows were a serious part of life. It's not something you want to fake-off or use for some protest action like this.
Gas News
The word this afternoon in Germany, out of Berlin and the coalition government under Chancellor Merkel....is that diesel and gasoline prices will be going up in 2021 with a fee of 3 cents per liter. Then in 2026....it'll go somewhere along the lines of 9 to 15 more cents per liter.
Desired effect? This is supposed to make you happy to accept the battery-powered car business, and go cross the line early.
Current pricing of E10 unleaded per liter? The cheaper rate in a week that you might notice is 1.35 Euros per liter. For the plain unleaded, around 1.40 a liter.
I should add....a second part of the government deal involves the end of new oil heaters in homes....as of the end of 2025. How many German homes are still oil-heated? Back in 2017, it was around one in five German houses/apartments that was heated by oil. It's a declining thing, and even without the government ban....I think half of the pro-oil enthusiasts would have given up within the next decade.
As for the gas thing angering the public? If you were on the lower end of society, this will be another frustrating part of your economic spiral. Monthly, it'll mean ten to fifteen Euros that you 'give' the government. This increase in 2026? That might be a harsh reality that makes it hard for CDU or SPD to convince low-income people to vote along their lines.
Desired effect? This is supposed to make you happy to accept the battery-powered car business, and go cross the line early.
Current pricing of E10 unleaded per liter? The cheaper rate in a week that you might notice is 1.35 Euros per liter. For the plain unleaded, around 1.40 a liter.
I should add....a second part of the government deal involves the end of new oil heaters in homes....as of the end of 2025. How many German homes are still oil-heated? Back in 2017, it was around one in five German houses/apartments that was heated by oil. It's a declining thing, and even without the government ban....I think half of the pro-oil enthusiasts would have given up within the next decade.
As for the gas thing angering the public? If you were on the lower end of society, this will be another frustrating part of your economic spiral. Monthly, it'll mean ten to fifteen Euros that you 'give' the government. This increase in 2026? That might be a harsh reality that makes it hard for CDU or SPD to convince low-income people to vote along their lines.
Settling In Discussion
There was a study done, which went to various countries and attempted to rate them on 'difficulty in settling in'. It's an odd topic. Having spent two decades in the military and continually in a move-and-adjust status....I developed my own personal way of settling in and just accepted things as something new to learn. The point of this study though....was certain countries are easier to adjust to, than other countries.
So how did Germany rate on this study? It's considered to be one of the most difficult countries to adjust to. Part of the blame? It's dished out to language. So I sat and pondered over the topic and how Germany fell near the bottom on this list.
First, I'll be blunt....having discussed this matter with people from at least thirty different countries, there's mass agreement (almost by all nationalities) that German is one of the more difficult languages to adjust to and learn. The die, der and das business (the forms of 'the') leads the way. But then you have the dialect issue where you might think you know German to some degree, and walk into a pub of Bavarians, and just give up after 15 minutes. The abbreviations? That's another little factor that makes you shake your head, with some abbreviations making sense and others not.
But onto the second and just as important settling in factor....driving. In 1978 when the German handbook was loaned to me for a weekend of study.....I sat there looking at approximately 300 different signs. Maybe a third of them made perfect sense....but there's probably 25 signs which relate to trains or crossings only....something that you rarely have to mess with in the US. Because of the rapid fire decisions you have to make while driving in Germany....it's essential you memorize the signs and the rules over priorities. I think most non-Germans arriving and getting into the license business are a bit overwhelmed.
The third issue is a curious one....Germans aren't the type to start up a conversation with a stranger....well, at least typically. I had a Ghanaian make this comment one day in a language class. He found that Syrians and other immigrant folks were more likely to start a stranger-to-stranger conversation, than Germans. I kinda agreed with that. Some Germans will say they have the cold-factor as part of the national culture business. Other Germans will just say that they are in some thinking mode....constantly, and chat only when necessary.
The fourth issue revolves around bureaucracy, which the Germans adapt well to, and master. Even Germans will whine about the 'red-tape' involved in simple procedures, and the various conflicts, and duplication that you run into. At some point twenty-odd years ago, my son's name (around age 7) got onto some county-listing in Kaiserslautern, and the county 'waste' office (the garbage empire) wanted him to pay into the waste-revenue 'pocket'. My German wife has little patience for bureaucracy, so she wrote them a letter to suggest that they'd made a mistake. A month later, the return letter came....'no' was the answer, he'd need to pay the garbage tax. So I ended up taking the 7-year old kid down and introduce him to the county clerk, with the letter involved.....explaining the guy that the kid only generates a shoebox of garbage per week....then asking if there was a mini-mini-mini container fee for him. The German clerk laughed....went into the system and corrected everything. Oddly, he never explained how the kid got onto this database for tax collection.
Finally, there's this issue of rules that you have to master. For example, there are at least fifty significant rules over garbage, recycling, and waste disposal that you need to master in the first sixty days after arrival. Some make sense....some don't. Mass transit and bus travel? I would suggest a minimum of seventy rules that you need to generally remember on a daily basis. If you get heavily into train-travel, there's probably over 200 factors that you need to remember on tickets, discounts, the restroom business, travel in inclement weather, and plan 'B' situations. Years ago, I worked with an American who was the type to carry around notebooks to note processes and procedures (yeah, he was an engineer). Upon arrival in Germany, he had a 150-page book which he wrote all the processes, procedures and rules down. At the end of four years and leaving....he had wrapped up two Germany-process-books, and started a third book. Some people can joke about it.....that Germans could make a 12-step process for something that ought to be done in three steps. I had an American associate who owned a dog and was paying the German dog tax. One day, the dog died. Going through the base vet, they disposed of the dog for him (a fee was involved). Well....about a year later, the German county office comes up and says you need to pay the dog tax and the late-fee. He responds 'no'.....the dog is dead. Well, they needed a dog-death certificate. The base vet wasn't exactly helpful on this requirement. So I asked the German 'helper' to the vet if she couldn't just make up a certificate out of thin air, in German of course, that just said 'Shep was dead'. That got the guy out of trouble, but it details how complex German society has developed into.
But you have to ask this question....is this settling in problem hindering immigrant minds about coming to Germany? The answer so far? No, it's not really a problem until they get here and start to grasp all the associated problems.
So how did Germany rate on this study? It's considered to be one of the most difficult countries to adjust to. Part of the blame? It's dished out to language. So I sat and pondered over the topic and how Germany fell near the bottom on this list.
First, I'll be blunt....having discussed this matter with people from at least thirty different countries, there's mass agreement (almost by all nationalities) that German is one of the more difficult languages to adjust to and learn. The die, der and das business (the forms of 'the') leads the way. But then you have the dialect issue where you might think you know German to some degree, and walk into a pub of Bavarians, and just give up after 15 minutes. The abbreviations? That's another little factor that makes you shake your head, with some abbreviations making sense and others not.
But onto the second and just as important settling in factor....driving. In 1978 when the German handbook was loaned to me for a weekend of study.....I sat there looking at approximately 300 different signs. Maybe a third of them made perfect sense....but there's probably 25 signs which relate to trains or crossings only....something that you rarely have to mess with in the US. Because of the rapid fire decisions you have to make while driving in Germany....it's essential you memorize the signs and the rules over priorities. I think most non-Germans arriving and getting into the license business are a bit overwhelmed.
The third issue is a curious one....Germans aren't the type to start up a conversation with a stranger....well, at least typically. I had a Ghanaian make this comment one day in a language class. He found that Syrians and other immigrant folks were more likely to start a stranger-to-stranger conversation, than Germans. I kinda agreed with that. Some Germans will say they have the cold-factor as part of the national culture business. Other Germans will just say that they are in some thinking mode....constantly, and chat only when necessary.
The fourth issue revolves around bureaucracy, which the Germans adapt well to, and master. Even Germans will whine about the 'red-tape' involved in simple procedures, and the various conflicts, and duplication that you run into. At some point twenty-odd years ago, my son's name (around age 7) got onto some county-listing in Kaiserslautern, and the county 'waste' office (the garbage empire) wanted him to pay into the waste-revenue 'pocket'. My German wife has little patience for bureaucracy, so she wrote them a letter to suggest that they'd made a mistake. A month later, the return letter came....'no' was the answer, he'd need to pay the garbage tax. So I ended up taking the 7-year old kid down and introduce him to the county clerk, with the letter involved.....explaining the guy that the kid only generates a shoebox of garbage per week....then asking if there was a mini-mini-mini container fee for him. The German clerk laughed....went into the system and corrected everything. Oddly, he never explained how the kid got onto this database for tax collection.
Finally, there's this issue of rules that you have to master. For example, there are at least fifty significant rules over garbage, recycling, and waste disposal that you need to master in the first sixty days after arrival. Some make sense....some don't. Mass transit and bus travel? I would suggest a minimum of seventy rules that you need to generally remember on a daily basis. If you get heavily into train-travel, there's probably over 200 factors that you need to remember on tickets, discounts, the restroom business, travel in inclement weather, and plan 'B' situations. Years ago, I worked with an American who was the type to carry around notebooks to note processes and procedures (yeah, he was an engineer). Upon arrival in Germany, he had a 150-page book which he wrote all the processes, procedures and rules down. At the end of four years and leaving....he had wrapped up two Germany-process-books, and started a third book. Some people can joke about it.....that Germans could make a 12-step process for something that ought to be done in three steps. I had an American associate who owned a dog and was paying the German dog tax. One day, the dog died. Going through the base vet, they disposed of the dog for him (a fee was involved). Well....about a year later, the German county office comes up and says you need to pay the dog tax and the late-fee. He responds 'no'.....the dog is dead. Well, they needed a dog-death certificate. The base vet wasn't exactly helpful on this requirement. So I asked the German 'helper' to the vet if she couldn't just make up a certificate out of thin air, in German of course, that just said 'Shep was dead'. That got the guy out of trouble, but it details how complex German society has developed into.
But you have to ask this question....is this settling in problem hindering immigrant minds about coming to Germany? The answer so far? No, it's not really a problem until they get here and start to grasp all the associated problems.
Smoking Story
There's a 10-line story out in Germany this morning....discussing the newest draft law effort....a ban on cigarette smoking in cars, if kids or pregnant women are in the vehicle.
Four German states are pursuing this ban idea (Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg, NRW, and Lower Saxony). It's being discussed at the Bundesrat-level (the Senate-device of the German federal government).
It was around 20 years ago that Germany banned smoking in restaurants and most pubs. The only way that pubs avoided the issue was to ensure a separate room existed in the pub, and that one room could continue to have smokers in it. Most pub owners will tell you that they lost around a quarter of their business when this effort started up....with smokers just staying home and drinking there.
If this goes through? I suspect that you'd find Germans often sitting on the side of the road for ten minutes....while their wife or husband sits in the car, and they huff off a smoke.
Four German states are pursuing this ban idea (Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg, NRW, and Lower Saxony). It's being discussed at the Bundesrat-level (the Senate-device of the German federal government).
It was around 20 years ago that Germany banned smoking in restaurants and most pubs. The only way that pubs avoided the issue was to ensure a separate room existed in the pub, and that one room could continue to have smokers in it. Most pub owners will tell you that they lost around a quarter of their business when this effort started up....with smokers just staying home and drinking there.
If this goes through? I suspect that you'd find Germans often sitting on the side of the road for ten minutes....while their wife or husband sits in the car, and they huff off a smoke.
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Rumor of the Day
We are around three years into the diesel car chaos in Germany, with VW the one chiefly suffering (having rigged the car exhaust to pass the test).
Today, there's reports in Germany (with one public TV network....SWR) that VW cheated on the EURO 6 test requirements with the VW EA288 engine. VW's reaction? So far, denying it.
Just about everyone in the government authority has been signed up for the past two years to the idea that the EURO 5 tests were the ones that VW cheated upon. If this were to stink up their beliefs? It'd really bring up problems with the car industry and some oversight commission to go after the car industry.
So where did all of this diesel car business start up? The EU picked up the topic, and in the late 1980s.....set the standard for new cars in July of 1992. That was EU-1.
EU-2 came along in January 1996. EU-3 came along in January of 2000. EU-4 came in January 2005. EU-5A was set in new cars in September of 2009.
The expectation of the EU was that each new generation would have to be cleaner. In general, they felt innovation would occur and propel things ahead.
Why the diesel standard business triggered cheating? The VW diesel designers reached a point where the three chief components of diesel engines were to be challenged, and one had to be lessened. The components? Mileage, torque, and low maintenance.
Most guys will admit their passion for diesel cars and buy them mostly because they drive more than 50 km's per day. They like the great mileage angle, generally low maintenance required and general power. If you had cut the torque, lessened the mileage, or added some filter that had to be swapped out every six months...it'd hurt sales.
After the cheating talk came out.....innovators came in bulk and discussed the filtering process. VW didn't really want to get into a big discussion, and wasn't that open to a added-filter? Why? No one says much, but you get the feeling that they'd tested this a good bit, and their results (whatever they were).....weren't going help the discussion. My humble guess is that the filter probably would have had a limited age of age six months, and required a qualified mechanic to swap it out....meaning several hundred Euro for each 'action'.
This rumor, if true.....will be another pain for VW to endear. I think most owners desperately want the rumor to be false. Most environmentalists want the rumor to true.
Today, there's reports in Germany (with one public TV network....SWR) that VW cheated on the EURO 6 test requirements with the VW EA288 engine. VW's reaction? So far, denying it.
Just about everyone in the government authority has been signed up for the past two years to the idea that the EURO 5 tests were the ones that VW cheated upon. If this were to stink up their beliefs? It'd really bring up problems with the car industry and some oversight commission to go after the car industry.
So where did all of this diesel car business start up? The EU picked up the topic, and in the late 1980s.....set the standard for new cars in July of 1992. That was EU-1.
EU-2 came along in January 1996. EU-3 came along in January of 2000. EU-4 came in January 2005. EU-5A was set in new cars in September of 2009.
The expectation of the EU was that each new generation would have to be cleaner. In general, they felt innovation would occur and propel things ahead.
Why the diesel standard business triggered cheating? The VW diesel designers reached a point where the three chief components of diesel engines were to be challenged, and one had to be lessened. The components? Mileage, torque, and low maintenance.
Most guys will admit their passion for diesel cars and buy them mostly because they drive more than 50 km's per day. They like the great mileage angle, generally low maintenance required and general power. If you had cut the torque, lessened the mileage, or added some filter that had to be swapped out every six months...it'd hurt sales.
After the cheating talk came out.....innovators came in bulk and discussed the filtering process. VW didn't really want to get into a big discussion, and wasn't that open to a added-filter? Why? No one says much, but you get the feeling that they'd tested this a good bit, and their results (whatever they were).....weren't going help the discussion. My humble guess is that the filter probably would have had a limited age of age six months, and required a qualified mechanic to swap it out....meaning several hundred Euro for each 'action'.
This rumor, if true.....will be another pain for VW to endear. I think most owners desperately want the rumor to be false. Most environmentalists want the rumor to true.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)