We are now about six weeks away from the Thuringian state election in Germany (late Oct). Ninety-one seats are up for grabs in this state election.
So what can we say about the polling and party trends? I'll make four observations:
1. The projected lead party is the Linke Party (in the past three months, they've picked up steam). They ought to be nearing 26 to 29 percent voting.
2. The SPD Party is pretty much screwed in this election....with some polls showing them as low as seven percent.
3. The AfD Party (anti-immigration)? Six months ago, you could have seen them at around 18 percent. In the past couple of weeks, they've moved up into the 22 to 25 percent range (depending on which poll you observe). Over the weekend, their chief guy (Hocke) got into a public TV interview that went badly and a fair amount of blame has been dumped on the public TV moderator. The 'can't trust the news media' shield has gone up and some folks are eyeballing both public TV networks as working against the party.
4. Finally, it might come to the surprise of some, but this is a more rural state of Germany, and there's only around 1.7-million residents registered to vote. From the last election (2014), only around 52-percent of the public came out to vote (extremely low). Some journalists hint there's more interest this time around, and they might add another 10-percent in voters.
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