Thursday, September 19, 2019

BREXIT and German Jobs

Late yesterday, via public TV news in Germany (ARD).....there was a news 'bit' that probably got barely noticed, but it might turn into page one news in the next two to three months.

So business analysts around Germany have generally commented that some type of BREXIT agreement needs to be worked out....to prevent not only chaos in the UK, but in Europe, and in Germany itself. 

In this latest news piece, German industry themselves are giving the Berlin leadership a big warning....there could be five-digit job-loss or job-slow-down, if a no-deal BREXIT comes to pass. 

If we were talking about just ten-thousand jobs out of 82-million in population....spread across various sectors, then it wouldn't be that big of a deal.  Once you suggest it's upwards to 80,000 or 90,000 jobs, with a fair number in the car industry or parts industry.....then you start to get political attention drawn to it. 

If you go and look for commentary by the seven major parties in Germany....most of them have tried hard to avoid criticism or chatter over the past two years.  Where did criticism or chatter chiefly come from?  The EU out of Brussels.  So if the seven major German parties are drawn into this prediction? 

The four-minute report goes into a fair amount of detail and does suggest that there is a fair amount of connectivity between British and German business operations. 

So one might go and speculate that Merkel over the next month will be drawn into the discussion, and put pressure on the EU to resolve this in a way that prevents any job losses.  I'm not saying that a tidy BREXIT agreement will exist, but it might be some deal that allows the UK to walk out and not screw up the economy at this point. 

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