Last night, via ZDF-Documentary's channel (German public TV network)....they ran a 40-odd minute documentary entitled 'Army At The Limit'. It was basically a long woeful tale of the German military over the past twenty-odd years and how a combination of corruption, incompetence, abuse, and political gaming made the German military into a 'joke' (my word, not theirs).
It's supposed to be up for a year on their web site for review, and I would endorse watching it.
In general, it is almost like a script was written out years ago, to transform the military into something that cannot function, driving officers and enlisted to leave early, and hampering any deployment conceivable. Intentional? It's hard make the statement with people to blame. You'd have to blame a minimum of a thousand officials....some in Berlin (associated with the party apparatus)....some within the Bundeswehr itself, and some attached to the logistical hub supporting the Army.
As for the question that the documentary leaves you with....what will become of the Army? I would point at three key factors. First, the money to resolve all the issues simply doesn't exist, and cannot be found. Second, I would suggest that several political parties have zero interest in resolving the mess. Third, NATO simply doesn't have the support of the general public to continue on....at the present level. The Russians? They aren't your enemy....if you are buying a massive amount of your natural gas from them.
So my view of the question....what will become of the German Army? I think they will downsize in a drastic way over the next decade (maybe to half the size of today's military). I also think that foreign deployments will become non-existent by 2030. They will end up paying for a mini-force, and accept the consequences of that decision.
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