Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Frankfurt Car Show and Car Chatter

So I went over to the Frankfurt International Car Show today.  This would be like the sixth time I've attended....with the first year being 1979. 

A grand deal?  Much less so.  If you look at exposition building useage.....they used about forty-percent of what they used in 1979, and about half the companies that would have been there a decade ago...aren't there. 

So my observations:

1.  It's 15 Euro to get in....which is the going price for the past three or four shows (they do it every two years). 

2.  Security?  Way more than 1979, and I can imagine at least 100 German police inside, with another hundred private security folks working for the Messe-team. 

3.  They went and added one entire building for old-timer cars.....but it's most to show them off and advertise them for sale. 

4.  The bulk of what is being shown?  Battery-cars....maybe 75-percent.  I saw one single diesel car (hybrid type for Mercedes).  There was one single hydrogen-fuel car on display (Hyundai). 

5.  Chinese cars on display?  Couple of companies showed up, and I have to admit.....at least on looks, their SUVs are impressive.  Engines?  A big unknown.

So the big topic....is this the last car show for Frankfurt?  Journalists and the team that organizes it....say yes.  There are a couple of reasons driving this.

First, it costs a lot to run an exhibit for the show, and some companies have realized that they just aren't selling that many cars in Germany anymore.  Second, the Messe-team charges a fair amount to get a display area, and some car companies are shaking their heads over this cost factor.  Third, the diesel car negativity?  It hasn't dissolved and still rests on a problems list.  Fourth, as much as VW and Audi can brag on development for battery cars.....some companies haven't spent that level of money and are still a couple of years behind.  Fifth, the protests by the environmentalists?  It's negative press coverage, and the car companies would rather be in a show-city where the pro-environmental factor is a few notches lower. 

So to this electric car issue and why it's just simmering there with no real effect.  I'm one of those people who did the battery-car demo (Audi E-Tron), and analyzed the numbers.  I'm also one of the people who attended a solar show (Munich) and did the analysis for the house having panels and the cost factor.  For 2018, I probably put in a hundred hours on the show business, and analysis. 

I came to the end, and there's three massive problems for me, and in particular....my German wife.  Yes, she threw German logic into this issue on a massive scale.

If I bought the vehicle.....this recharge time of five to seven hours is bothersome.  Course, this is for a near-dead battery.  If I just drove it one hour per day....this would be real simple to recharge.  But I started to look at the vehicle, and use for vacation trips (Hamburg, Munich, Berlin, etc), and how I'd stop for several hours to just wait on the charge.

Then I came to cost factor.  Folks may not realize it, but the electrical cost in Germany is among the highest in Germany.  So the only way for this to make sense....was to buy the full-up panel unit, and provide solar energy for the house and car.  Lots of sunshine in Germany, to make this really practical?  Oh please....don't even bring this up with Germans.  You might have 200 days a year where you'd get seven-plus hours of sunshine a year. 

Then I came to disposal of the batteries, and I could never get a straight answer from the dealer on cost for replacement or disposal.  I just found that odd.  I know....it's probably eight years away, but it just seems like you'd have a number to tell people, unless it's a shocker number.

The cost factor?  Well....the Tesla is a fine car.....but would I pay that much money for it?

Finally, I travel a bit outside of Germany, and this reliability of having charge stations in other countries is a bit of a question mark.  I do think Amsterdam has a lot of charging stations available.  I also noted a fair number of chargers in Switzerland.  But in these rural regions of Bavaria or France? 

It just seemed to me....it's ten years away before I might buy into this, and frankly.....I'm kinda leaning toward the hydrogen technology being ready by that point.  The car companies wanting customers to buy the cars now and get invested money on the technology back?  That is part of the end-story.  At the end of this year.....there might be 220k to 230k battery cars registered in Germany (Total).  It's just not attracting the general public. 

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