Friday, June 12, 2020

The 'What If' Question

Public TV in Germany (ARD) took up an interesting question for a news item this morning....there's roughly 150-billion Euro of Corona-money being created and funneled out....to reshape and help the general public of Germany.  The question now....what if the money achieves nothing

The current worry is that they had to reach into the borrowing stage, to get enough to establish an agreed-upon program (coalition government of the CDU-CSU and SPD).  Because of this coalition....there's bickering going on, and certain things that various groups wanted to 'save' and certain business operations that weren't going to be 'saved' (gas/diesel cars).

If you watch the public forums....the economic indicators for 2020 and 2021 look pretty dismal.  Tax revenue will be significantly less.  Production will decrease....lesser work staffs will be the general rule. 

Confidence?  That's really the issue of the day.  People tend to believe that 150-billion Euro being spread around....will have an effect.  Confidence that it'll be the one and only program?  Much less so, and some might speculate on another package being bundled up by January (meeting the 2021 election cycle at that point).  It wouldn't surprise me if a 3rd package is discussed and part of the election for the fall of 2021. 

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