It's one of those odd questions where you'd think that a couple of PhD guys would have been given the task and come up with a monthly incoming number. Well....there is no such number.
In 2014, there were around 450,000 Syrian/Iraqi refugees to enter, and in 2015....the number often quoted by the government is 950,000 (yes, 1.05-million is quoted a lot too).
So in the science of refugee flow....there are usually five qualifiers: (1) temp housing (usually fest tents with individual cubes for families), (2) special diet consideration (this was a major problem for 2013-to-2016), (3) access to medical care, (4) general local attitudes about limiting the flow, and (5) long-term versus short-term constant chatter. I would add....most communities don't have experts in planning for events like this....so they tend to screw up a good bit.
How long can a person live in individual cubes? People differ on this question, but I will vouch that my own personal 'stamina' is about 60 days, and then my fun-factor dissolves.
More permanent housing? Well....where? For over a decade, there's been talk of a housing crisis in major urbanized cities of Germany. On the other hand, in quiet farming communities....I will vouch that you could drive into a 2,000 resident community and find 100 houses/apartments empty....mostly because no one wants rural living anymore.
I'll also vouch that in the Pfalz area....there's probably housing for 250,000 people which sits empty (no jobs helps to ensure no one wants to live there).
If German did have five-star planning folks and made use of every asset.....they could easily take in a million-plus refugees, and maybe even go up to around two-million.
More acceptance of Ukrainians over the 2015 crowd? I watched an interview last night, and some German (on the street) made the comment that the 31 December 2015 riot in Koln probably ruined the perception of refugees, and blamed a lot of this negativity on young men. This group of Ukrainians coming in....being mostly retirees, women and kids? It makes it easier to accept.
If you asked how many will be in Germany by 1 January 2023? I'd make a wild guess that around 1.5-million will be here, and another one-million will arrive in 2023. But that's just a humble guess.
I'd also make a guess that virtually no anti-migrant sentiment will arise, unless it's coming from a pro-Russia politicized group.
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