I don't know how these German TV forum 'personalities' organize or plan out their public forums, but they really need some harsh dose of reality. For Sunday night's show (Anne Will Forum Show).....they ran with the question, is German democracy broken?
Why ask this stupid question? Well.....everything about the national government and the sixteen state governments....is heavily dependent on a coalition government existing. If you can't form a coalition.....then you got a five-star mess. Ever since 1949.....the formula was simple. You had two primary parties, and a minor party. Since the 1990s with the Wall coming down, every single election reaches a point where the numbers....mathematically....are tougher to figure the coalition. With six significant parties now....it's just not that simple.
You start with the logical points....the CDU can't partner with the AfD or the Linke Party. All of the other parties can't partner with the AfD Party. To some extent.....the FDP can only marginally partner with the Green Party. So you start figuring out the numbers and potential outcomes, and getting to coalition is difficult now.
The magic number where the AfD Party makes it impossible for the others? I put the number around 20-percent. This requires in some way for the SPD Party to continue to slide on their polling.
Is German democracy crapped out? Based on coalition-building, the simple answer is yes. I'll predict in 2021, and certainly in 2025....it'll be a problem.
Trying to run without a coalition majority? You can run a minority government, although Germany has never done this, and it really weakens stability (if you use other countries as the example). But it's probably the way things will develop unless the AfD Party stumbles itself out of the current numbers that they show.
1 comment:
Although this whole "we won't deal with party 'x'" shit gets on my nerves. We pay politicians to negotiate, and when they can't we should fire the lot of them.
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