If you go with the CDU scenario of Friedrich Merz being selected as the Party 'Boss', and chief Chancellor candidate....the guaranteed Green Party candidate will be Robert Habeck.
Unlike ALL previous elections in German history (since WW II).....the SPD Party will very likely NOT be able to mount a serious candidate and I would estimate their polling to show them at 18-percent (maybe even less, at 15-percent). The Greens, because of the Greta-crew and accomplishments in various states.....should be able to pull near 24-percent in polling.
So the question comes up....will the public TV networks commit to the method of the past election.....allowing only the top two parties to debate in one session, and the junior parties (which the SPD would be) stuck in a separate debate deal? I think so.
What kind of election would this be with the Greens and CDU Party? It would mostly have to do with capitalism and anti-capitalism, along with pro-environmental agendas.
Merz isn't a Merkel-type speaker, or manager. Merz is pro-business and likely would be talking about jobs, taxes, and making things work better.
Habeck? He would talk a great deal about electric cars, forcing more people to use trains, carbon stuff, and probably discuss less NATO requirements.
The odds of the CDU and Greens forming a government after this election? I would go and suggest the odds are very favorable at this point. For the SPD folks....this is a dismal suggestion, and really makes their future less certain. The SPD likely candidate? Unknown at present, and I suspect you won't hear much for another six to eight months.
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