If you review polls in the past ten days in Germany....the Green Party stands about two points under the CDU Party. It's not that the Greens have really risen that much (they've been up around 20-percent for most of the past year, and currently sit near 23-percent in polling)....it's that the CDU has fallen in the past year from near 35-percent down to around 25-to-26 percent in polling.
So if the Greens were to win in September's national election? I would make five observations:
1. They have to form a coalition (to reach 50-percent or more), and the options are limited. The left situation of the Greens, SPD and Linke Party? Nearly impossible to reach 50-percent. So the only options are: Greens-CDU/CSU, or Greens-SPD-FDP Party. Once you put that scenario out there....about fifty percent of the Green promises get thrown out and radical changes will fail to occur.
2. The odds of speed limits coming to individual states on the autobahns? I'd say it's better than 50-percent chance of states determining their own speeds. Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria would likely remain at unlimited....states like NRW and Berlin would be limited to 130 kph.
3. NATO would undergo a revolution....with less money funneled into defense for the German Army. It's not a big deal because who the hell really wants to invade Germany?
4. A fair number of CDU people are going to be furious about the direction of the party, and the past four years of Chancellor Merkel. Their frustration will last from 2021....all the way to the next election in 2025 and require a major change in 'center-politics'. So I'll predict two terms of 'wins' for the German Green Party.
5. Finally, don't go expecting some major recovery from the Covid-19 economic crisis in 2022 or 2023. It's going to be difficult for the Greens to talk over the economy in words to make their voters happy and the bulk of Germans satisfied.
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