1. Did fewer people show up in the two state elections (Baden-Wurttemberg, Pfalz)? Yes.
Pfalz in 2016, 70-percent of registered voters showed up. Pfalz in 2021, 64.4-percent showed up.
Baden-Wurttemberg in 2016, 70.4-percent of registered voters showed up. B-W in 2021, 63.8-percent showed up.
They both are missing around ten percent of the 2016 voters.
Odd thing? Well....you can't really explain the dynamic here in play. It's in the middle of a pandemic, but also in the middle of a non-vacation period. Some folks point out that there's not as much hype as you had in 2016 or 2011. You can't make the case that the missing voters hurt the CDU.
2. Coalition-building?
In the case of the Pfalz, the SPD would like to try a different partner....so they've called the Greens and FDP in. Other than partnering with the CDU folks....there's no other options.
The FDP has hinted that it'd be awful difficult to come to their terms. Certain state cabinet posts would have to be dedicated to them, and certain SPD promises made in the campaign period would have to be dumped.
In the case of Baden-Wurttemberg, the Greens would also like a different partner, so they've invited the FDP and SPD folks to talks. The FDP here.....has also said that it's going to be messy to come to their terms.
3. All this chatter yesterday of serious issues for the CDU, and the Health Minister having to be dumped?
Mostly all BS by the public TV crowd. This surrounds the health issues of the AstraZenica vaccine (currently suspended by a dozen-odd European countries) over the issue of thrombosis showing up in one country.
Both ARD and ZDF (the two public TV entities) tried to stir up this discussion last night, and their invited guest....the Premier-President of Bavaria (Soder), took the commentary and pushed back in an extreme way.
4. The suggestion that the CDU was the 'big' loser from Sunday? BS.
If you compare the two state elections, and the municipal elections in Hessen....the SPD Party is the 'big' loser. If you were looking for some 'winner'....the Greens probably did a lot better than any previous election....at least at the state and municipal levels.
5. The national Greens having a brand theme that isn't as refreshing as the Baden-Wurttemberg Greens?
This is a long-winded discussion....but you can make the case that the leadership that you see in Baden-Wurttemberg Greens probably would sell better nationally, but the national team isn't about to shift or modify themselves to be that type of brand.
6. The big issue in the Pfalz, as rated by people voting?
Social safety-net (22-percent). The climate worry? It was rated way down to number 4 (around 16-percent). Corona? It actually came up after the climate (12-percent).
7. The big issue in Baden-Wurttemberg, as rated by people voting?
The economy rated as problem number one at 22-percent. The least of problems? Corona, at 12-percent.
8. General public feeling over Baden-Wurttemberg's Winfried Kretschmann of the Green Party?
77-percent of folks polled in the state....felt he was a pretty good Premier-President. Didn't matter about party identification....he displayed a fair amount of leadership and was not totally consumed with Green Party environmentalism.
9. Handling during the Corona crisis, within Baden-Wurttemberg?
Via polling, Winfried Kretschmann (Green Party Premier-President) was rated at a higher level than Merkel or the national level Finance Minister.
10. Any of this affecting the Mecklenburg or Berlin or Thuringia state elections in September? No. The Saxony-Anhalt election in June? No.
The three major parties (Greens, CDU and SPD) all have issues that are readily apparent. There's no outstanding candidate for Chancellor and the only real hot topic is the economy. All of them talk about better days ahead, but it's not coming in 2021.
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