Monday, March 15, 2021

The Three Election Outcomes

 We had three elections that mattered today, in Germany.

First, the Hessen state 'city-council' election....where each urban area had their vote.  For the Wiesbaden area?  I should note that the turn-out was only around 41-percent (kind of low): 

CDU: 23.2-percent

SPD: 19.7-percent (the big loser since the last election....casting off around 6 points)

Greens: 21.7-percent

AfD: Not enough to have standing

Linke: 5.9-percent

FDP: 10.8-percent

Volt Party: 3.6-percent (a seriously pro-EU party and rather new in the region)

As for impact?  Well....the Green Party has taken points away from the SPD, and based on comments of other communities in Hessen...it's the same way. 

For the Baden-Wurttemberg state election, the results are:

CDU: 24.1-percent (they were probably expecting 2 points more), 2nd place

SPD: 11-percent (generally what they were predicted to get)

Greens: 32.6-percent (winner), no shocker.

AfD: 9.7-percent

Linke: 3.5-percent

FDP:  10.5-percent (probably two points above what you'd expect)

Coalition odds?  The Greens have a limited choice....either partner-up with the CDU, or partner with the FDP and SPD.  Losers in this B-W's election?  CDU lost a couple of points over the last election, as did AfD....the Greens picked up around 2-points.

For the Pfalz state election, the results are:

CDU: 27.7-percent (right around what was expected)

SPD: 35.7-percent (winner, no shocker)

Greens: 9.3-percent

AfD: 8.3-percent

Linke: 2.5-percent (pretty lousy showing)

FDP: 5.5-percent

Coalition odds?  The SPD will form around CDU....other options aren't possible. Winners?  Greens picked up four points over the last election.  CDU and AfD lost four points each, which is a serious problem for the CDU.  

Where this leads for the national election in September?  Well....I'd say from the mask scandal business....the CDU lost some points in both state elections.  Beyond that....no surprises. 

The comment by the news folks to hype climate chaos as a major part of this election?  This was spoken a good bit.  No one really agreed with them.  

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