Monday, February 28, 2022

How Many Days Can Russia Manage A Full-Scale War?

 This is a debatable thing.

If just half of the damage numbers that the Ukraine talks about....are true, then there are some significant losses....for what amounts to a 2-star military force holding off the Russians. 

Here is the remarkable thing....this week....there's likely to be 15k anti-tank weapons/Stinger missiles to be delivered, and the 2-star force bumps up to a 3-star force.  

It will develop by next weekend into a ground force versus ground force situation....basically a guerrilla war mess...because of the wrecked Russian armor sitting on roads, or laying in ditches.

This talk that Belarus will deploy in their army?  Well....there's some odd chatter that protesters in Belarus will come out and stage more demonstrations.....knowing that a fair amount of the Army is deployed and not able to support the police.   If you were asking me for the potential for a Belarus coup within the next ten days....I might give it better than average odds.

Economically, the rush is on in Moscow and across the nation....to find something (gold, silver, crypto-currency, dollars, Euro, Yen) to protect their assets.  The next seven days will be rough on the Ruble, and the Central Bank will be working hard to avoid total bank collapse.

Putin having a bunch of Einstein-like people to manage all of this?  I doubt it.  They will be out trying to find a safe currency for their assets as well.

To be honest, the Russians could run this little war like the Chechen War (20 months), with around 5,700 Russians soldiers dead at the end (always disputed and some suggest the number up around 14k).  But they didn't have economic conditions starving off society during that mid-1990s period.  They also didn't have a threat of nuclear war existing to get non-Russian attention.

I might add....the Chechen War didn't present a threat to stability of Belarus, and you really can't have them fail (oddly, there are a number of companies in the country that make Russian military hardware).  The Russian military machine would collapse in some form, if their sole source 'maker' dissolved away.

I'm not a rocket scientist, but I'd say Putin has a 30-day window to really wrap this up and get whatever 'gift' desired.  Beyond that, with a bunch of 'destroyed' Russian tanks laying on the side of the road....there's just not a positive picture.  

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