Presently, I'm still of the mindset that no invasion will occur, and Russia will play out this 'game' to demonstrate how Macron/Biden/Scholz/Johnson are weak. But to the suggestion of things to come?
1. I'll predict that around 100k Ukrainian refugees (minimum) will end up invited to Germany....within 60 days of the invasion. Some type of airlift will occur and several centers would be formed around Germany. I'll even suggest....oddly enough, the AfD Party won't stage opposition to these refugees (my belief).
2. Inflation for all of Europe (particularly Germany) will escalate. Present rate at the end of January was 4.9-percent. I would suggest another two-percent would quickly occur, and probably another extra two-percent by the close of the year in Germany.
3. Fear of nuclear missiles will hype-up and be openly discussed nightly, with missile defense likely to be explained in detail to naïve Germans.
4. The natural gas shortfall in Germany will occur, but it'll be limited to industry....not homes.
5. The funding for a LNG port in the Hamburg region will simply not occur (because of Green Party opposition).
6. Chancellor Scholz will be found to hold limited capabilities for this type of drama.
7. The BND (the Secret Service of Germany) will proclaim x-number of Russians within Germany are a potential threat. A news source will eventually discover that among the Russian population in Germany....99-percent are not supportive of Putin or the invasion.
8. Poland and the Baltic region will now become a forward point for NATO deployments....hyping up additional scenarios for the remainder of 2022.
9. Some Russian Oligarchs will find that they no longer have access to travel in Germany, and the question of property ownership will come up at some point.
10. An immigration door will open in Germany for Ukrainians....very similar to the Syrian immigration status. It wouldn't shock me if over the next two or three years.....maybe a million Ukrainians assemble in Germany (to stay).
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