Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Is The Ukraine Invasion Chatter More of a Hoax Than Anything Else?

In the past ten days, I've probably read five different commentaries/articles where various international people and Russia experts say the whole thing is an elaborate 'game' that Putin is playing out.  Today, I watched interviews done on the streets of Moscow....where only about 25-percent of the people had any enthusiasm for such a military action, and another quarter of street-talkers were amused by everything because there's just nothing to be gained.  

The five top hoax discussions?

1.  There's a belief that NATO, Biden, Johnson, Scholz of Germany, and Macron....are considered to be at the weakest level of leadership for the past fifty years, and Putin wants to do a 'show' to demonstrate that.  

2.  Virtually no one in NATO wants to put troops in the Ukraine.   NO ONE. 

Even the Ukraine has come to notice....other than giving them equipment....no other enthusiasm seems to be found anywhere.

3.  No one that seems to have dealt with President Biden in the past month....shows any enthusiasm after the meeting.  Maybe it's the nature of Biden, or the talk-in-a-circle chatter.

4.  Lets admit this odd economic 'problem'.  As much as Putin may think he can dump the Nord Stream II project and just sell the natural gas to China instead of Germany.....there's this economic 'drop' being talked about by various economists regarding China.

You see....various Chinese banks are in trouble (housing construction, mortgages, etc).  

If there were a sudden collapse in Chinese banks, this customer relationship with Russia would 'sour' in a hurry.  There have to be various Russian Oligarch folks talking over this potential and not thrilled over a decline in their profits.  Maybe the Kremlin folks have no issue....but Oligarchs are pretty attached to profits.

5.  Finally, you come to the NATO status question.  

Originally, NATO was about 12 countries.  After Germany's reunification, things heated up and several Warsaw Pact countries flipped (Czech, Hungary, and Slovakia came in to join).  There are 30 countries with membership now. 

No one ever sat there and wrote a limit, or reasoned about where this was going to go in the future.  

If you were Russia reviewing this.....all of this 'adds' were now being noted, and some idiot suggests that the Ukraine would be next....well, you'd just stand there as Putin and say 'enough'.

It's not so much about trading partners or economics....just that some military adversary situation is growing.  

To the question, is there any logical reason to conduct the invasion?  Well...on paper, it makes little sense unless you were just driving a 50 by 100 mile access point to the Crimea (Russian property).  No one has really said this was the goal though (you'd expect Putin to talk this angle).

My gut feeling....this has become a 'ballroom dance' where Putin can out-dance Biden, Johnson, Scholz,  and Macron.  So just leading them around to suggest an invasion....is enough to get enjoyment out of the 'dance'.  Maybe the threat of war is more of a hoax than anything else.     

2 comments:

Daz said...

So much for all the 'Biden is owned by Ukraine' talk that was popular a year or two ago. Seems like he's not exactly scrambling the fleet.

Schnitzel_Republic said...

There are a fair number of US soldiers deployed...just NOT to the Ukraine (most are going to Poland). It's almost like saying if there is a Russian invasion in the Ukraine, then logistically re-supplying Kaliningrad might become a problem for the Russians. Silly scenario, but since they kept Kaliningrad for all these decades...it just sits there now.