Monday, February 28, 2022

The War: 1 Mar 2022

 1.  That idea of a no-fly zone?  The US says it won't happen because it'd require a US presence.

2.  Nord Stream II company in trouble?  Shell owned around 27-percent of the company, and says that it's ready to 'dump' their shares.  Any takers?  I seriously doubt that anyone will give them true value.  Someone might see lower risk if they knew Putin was going to be gone in the next year.

3.  ISCoJ says it's going to start monitoring things and prepare war crimes cases.  I doubt that Putin cares, but the next five levels down with military officers are probably asking some questions.

4.  EU and US talking over more sanctions of the economic variety.  I watched N-TV do interviews on Moscow streets, and a lot of people were finding their credit cards and access to cash as a problem now.  

5.  Moscow stock exchange shutdown?  All they say is that there is too much negativity, and things will be closed till the 5th of March.  My humble belief of the 5th?  I suspect it'll open for a couple of hours....drop another 25-percent, then close for another five to seven days.   

6.  Singapore banks pushing back against Russia?  I noticed in business news.....a number of the big banks that you'd go to for lines of credit.....are saying 'no, we don't need your business'.  

For the purchase of raw materials in the Pacific region, the Russians were using these banks.  So, there's probably a couple of lesser-known banks willing to take the business....for a higher price, at least for the time-being..

7. The IIF says on banking 'power'....Russia is fairly screwed for 2022.  All of these imposed freezes of assets is going to make for a long-term problem.  Double-digit inflation is guaranteed for Russia at this point for 2022.

8.  Turkey has agreed to block the entry into the Black Sea for all warships.  How long this will last?  Unknown.  

9.  There was a piece written up in WELT to suggest that tactical nukes might be used on the Ukraine if the conventional war doesn't solve the Russian ambitions.  This would reshape virtually everyone's remaining trust in Russia.  I can't see the Russian military leadership agreeing in this use. 

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