In eight days, the German national election will be done, and some people will stand back to view the landscape and results of this election. Right now, it's pretty safe to predict that the anti-immigration party...AfD....will get a minimum of ten-percent of the national vote....and maybe even reach 12-percent.
For the record, in the last election....from the 2013 election...AfD was only able to round up around 810,000 votes (1.9-percent of the vote).
Who did the AfD take votes away from? Virtually every single party (the Greens and Linke Party less so).
Most Germans believe it's a frustration-vote situation. The scientists in the lab have conducted an experiment with consequences (asylum, immigration, migration)....and the results seem frustrating to some in society.
If you stepped into a pub and asked most working-class Germans....somewhere in the range of sixty to seventy percent will say that there are some screwed-up matters to attend to, and that they aren't that happy with the mess produced from the past three years. That said....the vast majority don't want the AfD to be solution. They want the standard parties to fix the mess created. So far, on the solve-and-implement level....most Germans can't be overly enthusiastic about the repairs conducted.
For the other political parties? Well....they are peeved. They've lost seats in the Bundestag. There are folks who are going to be dismissed out of Berlin, and they will have to go and find a real job, or retire. No one from the 2013 national election expected this type of development to occur. So it's a big shock to this privileged crowd.
What happens between now and the next national election (presumed) in 2021?
1. More state elections (they occur every five years). There's roughly twelve to occur during this period, and AfD could actually gain more popularity....if more screw-ups occur within the migration situation.
2. The EU election occurs in 2019. The AfD might take an anti-EU stance, and go after 15-percent of the German vote. Roughly 30-million Germans showed up in 2014, which equates to 49-percent of the registered voters (a very weak turn-out). AfD took around seven-percent of the vote that year. For this future EU election? It wouldn't be that difficult to get a higher showing of their crowd to just show-up.
3. Progress into the diesel car crisis? There's almost no real theme being used by the AfD presently over the diesel car crisis. If they had some theme....like cash-for-diesel cars....they might draw more voters.
4. Finally, the immigration episode finally settling? No. If you look at Turkey, the Erdgoan episode will continue on, and I'd likely believe that a million Turks might get fed up and go looking for a place like Germany to resettle. More routes are being developed for migrants to enter into Europe. So I think the permanent nature of the immigration 'experiment' is fixed and anchored down now.
Who knows.....maybe in four years....the AfD still exists and has grown in popularity. My humble opinion is that half the votes that the AfD gets in a week....will be frustration votes and people likely to return to their normal party position in 2021. But without some permanent solution....frustration will remain and the only alternate party to vote upon....if you wanted to send a message....ends up being the AfD.
No comments:
Post a Comment