The "Unknowns" Out of Sunday's Germany Election

I used to work with a boss who had this expression that the world is made up of knowns and unknowns.  It's the unknowns that will come to mess you up....at least that was his opinion.

For the Sunday Germany election.....there is a short list of unknowns:

1.  In the last election 2013....71.5-percent of the registered voters came out.  For 2009.....70.8-percent came out.  For 2005, 77.7-percent came out.  For 2002, 79.1-percent came out.

There's been this trend ever since the wall came down in the early 1990s....drifting downward on voters showing up.  Most polls are saying it'll be a normal election, and likely in the 72-percent range.  If it were to go to 65-percent or back up to 79-percent?  That would be a significant factor to numbers going radically different.

If there were five-percent more people showing up to vote....how would they vote?  Would they be more likely AfD voters?  Or perhaps Linke Party voters?

2.  The coalition chatter is constant now.  There are only two scenarios.  The CDU-CSU team with the SPD.  Or the CDU-CSU-Green-FDP deal.

The general public aren't that hyped up over either.  Some SPD supporters think the party needs to avoid the coalition deal and just concentrate on opposing the CDU agenda.  Some think that the CDU and Green mix will only lead to trouble.

3.  What if the SPD gets around 22-percent?  Most folks now think that Martin Schulz (the candidate for the SPD)....will retire, and new leadership will come to the party.  No one is sure about who the leadership will be.

4.  Will the AfD surprise folks with a last-minute surge and get 15-percent of the vote?  I seriously doubt this suggestion and think the number will be more like 11-to-12 percent.  But a 15-percent vote situation would probably shock journalists a good bit.

5.  Finally, the cabinet posts will probably change 100-percent after this election.  Several folks are set to retire....several expect a change of scenery.  Someone will get stuck with the Defense Ministry, and they probably aren't that enthusiastic for the position.