Friday, September 1, 2017

German Elections After September

The next German state election is Lower Saxony.  It was supposed to be mid-Spring but a member of the Green Party flipped to the CDU, and forced up an early election.  This election will now be held 15 October (a Sunday).

The current government of Lower Saxony?  A coalition of SPD and Green Party members.

Polling?  Non-existent.  Some folks think that the CDU holds a 40-percent lead (maybe better than the 36-point situation of 2013 that they ended up with in the election).  Both the SPD and Greens refused to partner up, and the SPD ended up being offered the lead.  At this point, it's likely that a CDU-FDP coalition will come out of this election.

As for 2018?  Only two elections.  Hessen and Bavaria....both in the fall.

The SPD likely has no gain on either of these state elections coming out of this national election in three weeks.

In the case of Hessen, it's likely that the CDU and Green coalition will continue on.

So for the next fifteen months....the political landscape in Germany will likely remain as you see today.....without a lot of friction or changes.

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