Once you get past all the hype on the German election (set for this coming Sunday).....you come to realize a major problem building up for the coalition game that must be played out over the next month.
The SPD will likely finish second, with a dismal 22-odd-percent. They've said for weeks now that they now realize their brand-name has been screwed over by the way that they've done the coalition deal for the past four years. They would prefer NOT to be part of the next coalition and go through a rebuilding process.
The 'Jamaica-coalition'? This idea takes the CDU-CSU folks over to the Green Party and FDP. It's the only other option to reach the 50-percent level. A fair number of big-wigs within the CDU believe that the Greens can be a viable partner. The FDP folks? It's very few that think that this can be worked out.
The FDP will likely walk into a room, and list out the draft laws they want (to include immigration) and the cabinet posts they desire. The Greens will do the same. The CSU will do the same. For Merkel and company....it's a fairly tense period and the only way to get this to some conclusion....is to give in and allow a number of things to occur....with probably less than one-third of the cabinet posts ending up with them.
The odds that no coalition will occur? A month ago, that idea would have been laughed at. I would take a guess that 10-to-20 percent of the public are now considering the idea.
The FDP might shock folks and just say that they want one single cabinet post....the vice-chancellor position...but they want the immigration law totally re-written....something that the Greens just can't agree upon.
The Greens might walk in and want the diesel crisis to end....by massive regulation and harmful economic theatrics on diesel owners....something that most of the CSU won't agree to.
I suspect by the end of September....most news media sources will be discussing the pain involved in this coalition discussion, and the hint of a repeat election by January.
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