The Odds of Another German Election in Four Months?

It's a topic which will not be discussed much on public TV or in the print-media.

Once you wrap up an election....there is a winner.  The winner party is given an ample amount of time (usually four to six weeks) to wrap up a coalition situation.  If you fail with just your party to get fifty-percent of the vote....the coalition deal becomes important.

Typically, you go either to the number two winner, or you go to the number three and four winners....to work up a coalition.

So, lets speak to scenario one (the SPD-partner).  Most people within the SPD Party will tell you that this is a marginalized relationship and hurting the brand-name of the SPD.  Schulz came up yesterday and said if there is a partnership offered....he'll refer it to the internal party system and require a vote.  The odds of a positive vote and a partnership?  No one says much.  My guess is that it'd be fairly close....maybe not passing.

The Green-FDP partnership?  Both would demand certain cabinet posts, and a particular list of laws to support.  The Greens want the no serious changes on immigration....the FDP wants a total rewrite of the immigration law.  It's possible that neither could fit into such a partnership.

Because the Linke Party and the AfD Party will likely get near 21-percent of the vote and neither can be a CDU partner.....the coalition thing might become a problem.

What happens if the partnership deal can't be worked with scenario one or two?  The SPD would then be brought into a room and given a chance.  My humble guess is that they'd approach the Linke Party and the FDP, and talk over a partnership.  Rewriting the immigration law?  The SPD might readily agree with the FDP's demand.  I'm not that sure about the Linke Party folks.

If the SPD failed?  Then, a decision would be made and a new election called for in roughly 90 days (figure around Feb of 2018).  The odds of Merkel and Schulz both being the candidates again?  Probably so....but it's not a guaranteed thing.  The SPD might go and take some weird twist, and pull out another individual.

The odds?  I'd take a guess that it's less than a 10-percent chance that things would get this bad.  But the system is built for this type of scenario.