Outside of Europe, it's rare that some discussion comes up over the 1 October 2018 election in Catalan, Spain (the region around Barcelona). The vote? It's a regional situation and it centers on the idea that Catalan will leave Spain to become an independent state.
Size? Roughly 12,000 square miles. About one-tenth the size of Alabama.
What's the angle to this vote? For decades, Catalan has been this money-making 'monster' of Spain. Between tourism, agriculture, and industry.....they made a ton of money for the Spanish government. In return, they never got their 'fair' share back....it was distributed into the rest of the Spanish states (14 other states).
The Spanish federal government out of Madrid? Well....they say the Constitution doesn't allow a state of Spain to exit. Once in....you never leave.
The opinion polls? Well, there are two ways of viewing the polls. In general polling....the 'yes' vote has a five-point lead. If you sat down with people who say they will absolutely vote....you get a twenty to thirty point lead with the 'yes' vote. This worries the Madrid federal folks.
Court action? So far, nothing has stopped the region government from continuing the game.
If the vote goes 'yes'....particularly by 20-percent? This worries a number of Spanish folks. An exit means that the fair amount of money taken from the taxes of Catalan won't exist, and the Madrid folks are in for a serious financial crisis in a matter of months. Cutting back on distribution of cash to the other states? It'd cause all of them to start asking questions.
There's also the potential that Valenciana might come to some conclusion that they would be better on their own as well.
Then you'd have five or six EU countries where various states would stand up and suggest that the distribution of their money is unfair, and they want their own status as well.
You can sense....there's some fairly curious episodes about to unfold over the next twelve months in Europe, if this Catalan vote goes 'yes'.
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