With the decision of the ECJ today....basically agreeing that the EU does have the power to force member states to accept asylum individuals and refugees....it's opened up a curious episode.
The two countries holding the 120,000 refugees, are Italy and Greece. They both expect something to start up within the next six months...and the camps start to lessen.
The fact that new asylum folks appear almost every week? Well....yeah, it's best not to bring up that the set number of 120,000 isn't really a finite-number.
So as the 120,000 get their marching orders....where they will end up....you can anticipate that at least 50-percent (maybe even eighty-percent) will be unhappy. Their destination choice? Germany. Some might list France....but I doubt if it's more than five-percent of the whole group.
My humble guess is that as the smoke clears and the list of demands of Slovakia and Hungary are read....that each of the 2,100 destined to their land must have an ID or passport....that will stall the distribution for at least six months. But we will reach a point where the buses and planes start to deliver the 120,000.....and within a week....most of those will be on a train or bus....or walking....to Germany.
Yes, I will project that by the end of 2018....most of the 120,000 (probably 80-percent) will be sitting in Germany. Grumbling will be heard and some Germans will demand that Merkel answer how this screw-up occurred. She'll grin at the camera and say that the EU will fix this. The fake nature of the mess will be public attention at that point.
As much as the news media will attempt to say the ECJ fixed this mess and now Hungary and Slovakia must comply....well, they will just open up the front-door for the aslyum seeker to reach Germany. All roads in the end....lead not to Rome....but to Germany.
And the next batch of new arrivals in 2018 or 2019? As the EU tries to distribute them? Germany-bound as well.
Just my humble opinion.
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