What is currently unfolding now....with the SPD Party and the CDU/CSU folks in some agreement over a government coalition....there is this little rule existing for the SPD folks that they must have a membership vote.
There are 460,000 members of the party within Germany, and typically....75-percent will vote on the coalition. The 4 March day is the point where the votes will be counted within the party (a Sunday).
The odds here? Totally unknown.
From the pre-vote about a month ago....it was near a 55-percent 'for' and that was typically very low for the membership to give a hint over the coalition talks. Usually, it would go near 75-percent 'for'.
What's the big negative? The youth association within the SPD are very bitter and negative over what the Party elite have done. That was all before Schulz stepping back and the episode occurring on Friday.
If you watch German public TV, the experts there say it's fairly safe....probably in the 55-to-65 percent range. Before Schulz fell out with the Foreign Minister position, I might have agreed. Now I think it'll be fairly close to 50-50....so there's a risk that this fails.
The script on 5 March, if it fails? Merkel has some meetings and decides if they go to a minority government or have another election.
In some ways, this is a fairly dramatic moment with the 460,000 SPD members.
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