Sunday, February 25, 2018

Merkel and the Conservative 'Dance'

Sundays in Germany is typically where some political discussions will occur with the major newspapers and magazines....either discussing problems or laying out future trends.

I noticed via ARD (public German TV, Channel One)....the big topic today covers the CDU Party (Merkel's party) and the new brilliant idea....making the party 'more' conservative.

For those who aren't aware....the CDU has been (maybe since the 1950s) more or less....the right-of-center party.  Most folks over the age of 60 in Germany would say that up until around 2000....this was a conservative political party, then they'd grin and say since Merkel came along, it's been racing to be almost attached to the SPD Party (the left of center political group).  The same crowd (all older Germans) would hint that there's practically no real difference between the CDU and SPD today. 

Why this shift?  They currently reside at around 32-percent of the public support....while their arch-enemy....the SPD Party....resides at near 18-percent. 

I've come to this belief that the Merkel intellectual crowd are fearful of this new world where the AfD exists, and that the SPD has been demoralized and hurt to the extent that they will be forever locked into the 16-to-22 percent situation.  To reverse this trend, they believe they need to dismantle the AfD potential, and 'pretend' (my word for it) to be conservative and cause former CDU/SPD folks voting AfD (anti-immigration) to return back to the CDU and SPD, like they were.

The next election (nationally) is in 2021.  If the CDU were able to fake people out enough, and convince them they were conservative, then AfD folks (who used to be CDU or SPD) would go and likely return to their former parties, and thus the AfD would start to sink...falling below 5-percent and thus not be a participant in the Bundestag.

Now I admit....this is awful stupid, and it's basically designed (if true) to help the SPD folks return to their former 'glory'.  But yet here we are....with some leaders of the CDU going into this ARD article....trying to suggest that they will be more conservative in the future.

Will the public buy off on this?  A decade ago, would have been simple and people would buy the fake conservative angle. But today?  I'm not so sure.  Along the way, you would have to engage on the immigration issue and and show some anti-migrant values.  I just don't see the current group of CDU members talking like that, or even being able to fake people on some change.

The other odd thing to ask....if they did move to the right....would people even notice?

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