1. Though the coalition is set and the cabinet is laying out there in a agreed upon manner.....it's really not over until the members of the SPD Party (all 460,000-odd members) vote. It'll happen within days, and the best guess is that 75-percent will vote. No one speculates on this passing or not. Generally, you would see three-quarters of the membership support what the core leadership did. I don't anticipate this reaching the three-quarters level this time. I would humblerly guess that it'll be closer to 55-percent. This will indicate that a 'bare' majority of SPD members are happy with the coalition and every month will pass with them frustrated with this 'mess'.
2. Merkel's final tour. Yeah, it's pretty much over now. It's kinda like a all-night party, and there's six guys standing there and reminiscing over the good old days.
3. Schulz has removed himself as head of the SPD Party. Not that much of a shocker, but Nahles will now lead the Party mechanism. Clever, articulate, and capable....she can give dramatic speeches. Leadership style? Not one to really draw people. This is a rebuilding period for the SPD folks and she has that one single job to do it.
4. Julie Klockner. She is the 'darling' of the CDU Party and finally has a cabinet post....Ministry of Agriculture. Frankly with the big mess left by the guy exiting the post....she has a chance to shine. Farmers in Germany needed someone with enthusiasm and clever nature.....they got it in her.
5. Martin Schulz as a foreign minister? Well....yeah. I would speculate that he'll be extremely pro-EU....condemn Trump a good bit....and mostly just make speeches. You could do worse....you could do better.
6. Olaf Scholz? For a couple of years, he's been the mayor of Hamburg and was well-liked up until the G-20 riots of last summer. After the riots, you got the impression that he lacked leadership skills and more or less just smiled for the camera. He's now the suggested vice-chancellor (rumor-mill on that) and the likely new finance minister.
7. Barbara Hendricks of the SPD Party will continue as the Environmental Minister, and likely be getting facial time with the public on a daily basis over the next year as the diesel auto crisis continues on. After Merkel and Schulz, she's probably the most recognized political figure in Germany today. Diesel car enthusiasts hate her. Pro-environmental folks love her.
8. Seehofer as Interior Minister? Yeah, it is a bit of shock. His reaction to terror events will likely be different than the previous guy, and if you were looking for the first guy to retire or be forced out of the cabinet.....he'd likely be the one. I would speculate that he's there for a year, and someone else from the CSU will be getting the seat then.
9. A number of CDU enthusiasts are angry over the number of important ministries handed over to the SPD, and it'll be a problem in the future as frustration mounts.
10. Finally, to the core issue of immigration and migration that shifted so many voters to the AfD, and triggered this weak coalition? The two groups here agreed to a family limit of 1,000 per month, and the news media attacked them to a great extent. There are various small changes made in the past thirty days, and I would speculate part of the rebuilding process is to put migration behind them in some way, and end the big-open-door routine.
Don't get that excited over the cabinet or the future....this is a deal built to get folks to a year or two in the future....and another election.
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