Tuesday, February 13, 2018

The Free Ride Story

There is a fairly long piece by Focus (the German news magazine) today....which chats to the subject that the German federal government MIGHT be willing to offer FREE PUBLIC transportation to reduce the number of vehicles within urban areas.

Now, you should not get all hyped up and thinking that this will mean free rides for everyone.

You have to remember why this topic is coming up.  Urban areas (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, etc) are all reviewing the rules to stop diesel cars from entering their city limits.  It's believed by the end of 2018....some cities will have legal direction on this and then stop diesel owners from entering their areas.

The discussed federal solution would be that the Berlin federal folks would support counties and cities who want to introduce free rides (meaning bus and rail)....within city limits.

Who would pay for this?  Naturally, you'd sit and pause over this because SOMEONE must pay for the free rides.  The taxpayer?   Well.....yeah.

Nationwide, it's estimated that roughly 12 billion Euro are required each year to fund metropolitan networks (both bus and rail).  Half of that comes from ticket sales, and the other half via the federal government.  To some extent, you would be correct to say that travel is already subsidized, at least half-way.

A true solution?

I sat and paused over this idea.  If you said that no diesel cars could enter Frankfurt city limits....you'd be talking about at least 100,000 vehicles....maybe even going up to 200,000 vehicles....per day.  So you'd have to have parking established on the outer boundary of the city.  You can figure a minimum of twenty massive parking lots.  Then you'd have to add the capability between 7AM and 9AM....to haul an extra 100,000 folks minimum....maybe an extra 200,000 folks.  In effect, I would suggest doubling the whole railway network within Frankfurt for morning and evening rush-hours.

How many more trains to be added?  Just in Frankfurt alone, you'd be talking about twenty minimum.  More buses?  Yes.  Probably over a hundred additional buses to make something like this work.

All free?  Well, then you'd come to the parking situation and ask....will parking be free?  Right now....NO.  You pay some small weekly or monthly fee for your car.  You can figure that parking will be some fee-based deal.

Public acceptance?  Once they figure out that they have ante up another couple hundred a year in taxation...it'll become a harsh reality and some Germans will ask about the future.

Could the nation cover this cost factor?  I don't think you'd be talking about 12 lousy billion Euro.  I would suggest the amount would double up to around 20-to-24 billion Euro per year....easily.

Taxation?  You'd have to invent another tax and let everyone participate in this deal....figure at least 500 Euro per year....per adult minimum.  I would have doubts that an extra 500 Euro  on taxation would be enough.

Inventing a bigger mess?  If you've ever traveled in rush-hour in Hamburg or Frankfurt....you tend to notice the system really maxed out, as things are today.  So suggesting another one-third more travelers....maybe even 50-percent more travelers?  It just makes me wonder what idiot would dream up a scheme like this?  If you had twenty years and built other networks....light-rail lines....engineered great off-ramps for parking, and massive stations on the outskirts of cities....maybe this would all work.  But I have my doubts that you could whip this up in a year or two.

A bigger mess coming?  Yes.

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