Its amazing to me how this topic came up on Monday, and has been turned into a big topic. The deal revolves around the idea that Germany has to resolve air pollution issues, or face heavy fines from the EU. Note, the Germans are the ones who stressed pollutant standards and the heavy fines. So what the Chancellor and 'company' want....is a totally open and free public transportation system where cars just aren't used, period. They don't come out and say that fines or entry-into-cities will be costly, but you start to realize just how far this could go. So, my observations:
1. If you go to major urban areas like Frankfurt or Mannheim....they all have public transportation (tram, railway, and buses). Most are running at 80 to 100 percent capacity in rush-hours....so there's very little space left to suggest doubling up the passenger load will be easy.
2. How far will this 'shadow' have to run, to be successful? If you take the city-limits of Frankfurt, and then throw up a circle of 15 kilometers beyond that circle.....you get to what I'd call the first stage. But there are various kids attending schools beyond that 15 kilometer circle, and various adults going to work from 40 kilometers away. So you'd have to build an infrastructure that stretches at least fifty kilometers from the base. Just suggesting that to a public transportation planner....would scare the crap out of most folks. We aren't talking about a two-bus per hour, or 12-train-stops per day.....we are talking about a remote village in that circle which would have a minimum of two stops per hour, from 5AM to probably midnight.
3. The amount of maintenance required and personnel to run a public structure twice the size as currently in all cities of Germany? You'd be talking about doubling the number of buses, the drivers, and probably near doubling the number of trams operating around the country.
4. Would foreigners visiting get the free deal? Would you punish the foreign folks who drive their cars into Germany?
5. Will you destroy the German car companies (BMW, Mercedes, VW, Audi)? It just seems to me that if you approach this idea....the VW guys are finished and can just pack up to move somewhere else.
6. What about all the effort for electric cars? Massive amount of propaganda and now?
7. What of all the parking garages built over the past forty years? Will they be compensated by the government for non-business? No one says much.
8. If folks don't buy cars, and gas isn't really consumed...there's no real gas tax. So how will the roads be financed? I know....it's a stupid topic but you just sense that there's a huge mystery here over how financing for any of this would work in the future.
9. The only place I've ever been where public transportation was free? Melbourne, Australia. There's a two-mile by two-mile area of down-town, where the tram and buses are free. In an isolated area, of a certain size.....I could see this being done. But to suggest this to a massive scale? No, it's never been done.
10. I think the mere suggestion here to the EU of some crazy idea like this....will scare the crap out of the EU political folks. If you did it in Germany....why not Amsterdam or Brussels?
Here's the odd thing about this whole idea. For these five cities that have gained the status of a test-city and will get tons of money to build their free deal.....it'll involve an entire year of discussions, and probably another year of planning. Then you get into the construction and ordering phase. The actual first day of real use? Maybe six years away from today. The results of the five cities? You won't hear about any final results until 2025 at the earliest (my humble guess). This is all mostly a show to buy the political folks time....lots of time.
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