"Whatever the Europeans are doing, they are confused because they've never seen anything like this president. They are so over their heads versus this guy."
-- CNBC Jim Cramer, Business Analyst
Today, the US kinda noted that time had run out on the EU to fix the problem with aluminum and steel import deal into the US. Naturally, most of this problem doesn't involve 27 members of the EU...it involves Germany to a great degree.
So onto Cramer's comment. He is absolutely correct.
Just about everyone within the political environment of Europe....particularly with the German government....is a non-business expert, and chiefly will admit that they are political experts only. Maybe within their staffs....they have folks with business degrees or a grasp of the import/export business, but it doesn't mean much if the politician won't react.
From November of 2016, I've sat and watched the commentary and behavior of various politicians (from within Germany, and throughout Europe). Most are negative on Trump and feel that he'll just go away (by talk on impeachment or just in 2020). If he's still around in 2020 and wins the election....another four years? For these folks....it'll be a harsh reality.
The problem is that most politicians can't grasp a lot on economics, business structure, or taxation. When they heavily tax companies or the products....no one really understands that you are cutting into competition, and hurting the company on distribution of profits (either through their employees or the stockholders). Most see the tax system as a 'gift' creation vehicle....you take away the money and distribute it to favorites of your political agenda. Whether you have 3-percent unemployment or 8-percent unemployment....doesn't typically matter, except for the voting period where you make fake promises to cover your screw-ups.
Defeating Trump? They just don't know how.
Thursday, May 31, 2018
Car Mileage Story
About a decade ago in Germany, the news folks happened upon a new trend being seen.....resetting of the mileage on cars. Someone had gone and figured out the method to reset the mileage. At the time, I watched a public TV documentary where the crew had gone to the Netherlands.....paying some underground mechanic around a hundred-Euro, and in three minutes....he'd reset the mileage....taking 30,000-odd kilometers off to tachometer. The chief purpose? You could take a high mileage car that was ready to sell, and convince buyers that it had lesser mileage....deserving the better price.
I noticed in the news today, that the authorities in Germany are now convinced that one out of every eight cars sold in Germany on the used market.....are reset on the mileage. Across Europe, it's become such a problem....that naturally.....they want the EU to outlaw it.
Now, you can sit there and be amused. Any of the European countries could have outlawed it but it really doesn't mean anything unless you really force the car companies to modify their systems enough that they can't be updated or changed. So they figure that the EU will have the will-power and strength to accomplish this. The amount of time for the EU to figure this out and accomplish it? Well.....being humble here....maybe two years.
It's like talking about e-cigarettes and the desire that the EU 'fix' this as well. Health experts want more regulation and efforts by the EU to make it undesirable to smoke via the e-cigarette. They might be able to do it....but you'd be talking about a minimum of two to three years to get something agreeable and passed.
Does the mileage business help that much? There are three general views of car pricing and mileage. There's the excessive amount....where some guy is driving 40,000 kilometer per year (long-distance driver). There's the average amount....where some guy is driving around 25,000 to 30,000. And then you got the 'light-driver' with 10,000 kilometers (more or less). The light-driver can expect full pricing on his car and probably deserves it....figure a bump up of 500 Euro for a five-year old car. The excessive-driver? He'll lose a minimum of 500 Euro (maybe more) on a three-year old car with 120,000 kilometers. So it does make sense to cut off 25,000 to 40,000 kilometers and hope the guy buys off on your story.
I noticed in the news today, that the authorities in Germany are now convinced that one out of every eight cars sold in Germany on the used market.....are reset on the mileage. Across Europe, it's become such a problem....that naturally.....they want the EU to outlaw it.
Now, you can sit there and be amused. Any of the European countries could have outlawed it but it really doesn't mean anything unless you really force the car companies to modify their systems enough that they can't be updated or changed. So they figure that the EU will have the will-power and strength to accomplish this. The amount of time for the EU to figure this out and accomplish it? Well.....being humble here....maybe two years.
It's like talking about e-cigarettes and the desire that the EU 'fix' this as well. Health experts want more regulation and efforts by the EU to make it undesirable to smoke via the e-cigarette. They might be able to do it....but you'd be talking about a minimum of two to three years to get something agreeable and passed.
Does the mileage business help that much? There are three general views of car pricing and mileage. There's the excessive amount....where some guy is driving 40,000 kilometer per year (long-distance driver). There's the average amount....where some guy is driving around 25,000 to 30,000. And then you got the 'light-driver' with 10,000 kilometers (more or less). The light-driver can expect full pricing on his car and probably deserves it....figure a bump up of 500 Euro for a five-year old car. The excessive-driver? He'll lose a minimum of 500 Euro (maybe more) on a three-year old car with 120,000 kilometers. So it does make sense to cut off 25,000 to 40,000 kilometers and hope the guy buys off on your story.
Danish Law Passage
It's not a page one story in Germany, but it has implications. ARD, Channel One of the public TV group, spoke up about a Danish draft law that passed this week.....banning facial masks (to include burkas, scarves and helmets which might cover your face).
The law is effect in August, and will even cover 'fake beards' (the Santa Claus routine).
Passage? Overwhelming...75 to 30 on votes.
The only exception written into the law? Well...if you get extremely cold weather (they didn't state the temperature), then you can wear a facial covering or scarf.
The fine? 135 Euro on the first offense. And it progresses up on the second, third and fourth (the fourth reaches 1,350 Euro).
So how the burka would be handled by the cops? They won't even order you to remove the burka (pretty curious thinking here).....they will just ask for your ID and write out a ticket for you to appear in court, and the ticket will state that you need to now go home or face a possible second ticket for refusing the order of a policeman. In general....throughout Europe, most all cops go at the same angle....they can order you to return home or face a breach of 'peace'. The breach of 'peace' will just get you deeper into trouble and another second fine.
My humble guess is that the Germans will eventually pick up this idea but it'll be a state by state episode where they pass something and eventually put pressure on the Merkel coalition to work on some national policy.
The law is effect in August, and will even cover 'fake beards' (the Santa Claus routine).
Passage? Overwhelming...75 to 30 on votes.
The only exception written into the law? Well...if you get extremely cold weather (they didn't state the temperature), then you can wear a facial covering or scarf.
The fine? 135 Euro on the first offense. And it progresses up on the second, third and fourth (the fourth reaches 1,350 Euro).
So how the burka would be handled by the cops? They won't even order you to remove the burka (pretty curious thinking here).....they will just ask for your ID and write out a ticket for you to appear in court, and the ticket will state that you need to now go home or face a possible second ticket for refusing the order of a policeman. In general....throughout Europe, most all cops go at the same angle....they can order you to return home or face a breach of 'peace'. The breach of 'peace' will just get you deeper into trouble and another second fine.
My humble guess is that the Germans will eventually pick up this idea but it'll be a state by state episode where they pass something and eventually put pressure on the Merkel coalition to work on some national policy.
More BamF
Even though it's a holiday in Germany....as Focus magazine reports this morning.....there's a fair amount of activity going on with the BamF 'scandal' episode (the immigration agency for Germany). I've talked about this over the past two weeks in various essays.....but there's a couple of odd things which got thrown out there today.
First....the Interior Minister (Seehofter) put a major figure in the Interior Ministry who was a guy promoted into his position by the past Interior Minister....into forced retirement. In recent months, this individual managed the BamF, and there is apparently a loss of confidence. Little else is said.
Second, the government has admitted that roughly 54 million Euro was paid out to consulting firms over the past three years, and there's still two years to go before the contracts end. The purpose of the consulting firms (Young and Kienbaum, and McKinsey)? Well....a number of folks spoke up in 2015 and said that BamF was out of date and unable to speed up their process. A fair number of the folks took this as an insult, and have been forced to accept some of the new practices.
Third, from the consulting action....it's said that thirty projects are underway, and involve 370 contractors.
Fourth, there are accusations now that the contractors may have had sensitive information access, within the BamF database. BamF bosses say no....anything that was classified as confidential or secret....was out of their reach.
So you come to the last piece of this 'thriller'....the CDU now says that to fix all the problems....they need to write/draft a law which imposes quality procedures and standards. In simple words....whatever they write and pass...the BamF employees and the opposition folks....can't ever complain about again.
The necessity of a standards-law? This becomes a curious piece of legislation. From 2013 to present....with zero leadership and marginal decision-making....they basically arrived at a point now where all the screw-ups of the past five years...need to be fixed. Confidence by the public? That's the big question.
First....the Interior Minister (Seehofter) put a major figure in the Interior Ministry who was a guy promoted into his position by the past Interior Minister....into forced retirement. In recent months, this individual managed the BamF, and there is apparently a loss of confidence. Little else is said.
Second, the government has admitted that roughly 54 million Euro was paid out to consulting firms over the past three years, and there's still two years to go before the contracts end. The purpose of the consulting firms (Young and Kienbaum, and McKinsey)? Well....a number of folks spoke up in 2015 and said that BamF was out of date and unable to speed up their process. A fair number of the folks took this as an insult, and have been forced to accept some of the new practices.
Third, from the consulting action....it's said that thirty projects are underway, and involve 370 contractors.
Fourth, there are accusations now that the contractors may have had sensitive information access, within the BamF database. BamF bosses say no....anything that was classified as confidential or secret....was out of their reach.
So you come to the last piece of this 'thriller'....the CDU now says that to fix all the problems....they need to write/draft a law which imposes quality procedures and standards. In simple words....whatever they write and pass...the BamF employees and the opposition folks....can't ever complain about again.
The necessity of a standards-law? This becomes a curious piece of legislation. From 2013 to present....with zero leadership and marginal decision-making....they basically arrived at a point now where all the screw-ups of the past five years...need to be fixed. Confidence by the public? That's the big question.
The 8.5-Million Euro Story
It's a short piece over at Focus (the German news magazine) but they attached one other little curious problem with the scandal development with BamF (the immigration agency for the German government) and the folks who work for them up in Bremen.
The issue? Well....there's a very untidy and unexplained use of 8.5 million Euro (roughly 10 million dollars) by the Bremen BamF chief over a fairly short period of time (in less than a year).
Typically, like most US departments....you'd have a bill or receipt to come in....noting that such-and-such order had been fulfilled (a pallet of toilet paper, or six hours of landscaping, or a window replaced). The budget officer would be allowed on their own to file the document, and pay the bill. Once you reach X-level....then the chief would have to review the document, and be the one responsible for paying the bill.
So there's 8.5 million Euro that went out, and no real details on hours or service. What they are admitting....is that it's involving legal services of lawyer shop.
As you read through the piece....it's clear...no one knows much of anything. There is the hint that maybe the chief pocketed some of the money, but there's no substance to suggest that.
What is odd here, as you go and read over the piece....there's a very clear attitude shift now to wrap this up by the opposition parties, and move on. Other than the AfD (the anti-migrant political party)....most of the others are prepared to dismantle the inquiry talk. Why? I suspect that they've asked their polling folks and discovered that the more you talk about this as a scandal....the more anti-immigrant you make the general public. Lack of trust means you can't handle the immigration or migration business, and that's generally a bad thing for the opposition parties to admit.
As for the 8.5 million Euro? Go out and contract one-hundred man-hours of legal work for some cause or reason. If this involved just some junior staff members....you might save a bit. If you involved eight man-hours of this with a PhD level lawyer....the cost factor goes up rapidly. I could see a dozen contracts like this existing, and each one involving half-a-million Euro very easily.
Scandal-wise, again.....there's just not enough 'smoke' to say anything real illegal ever occurred. This may all wrap up by December and other than a hyped-up episode in the news.....nothing ever occurred to fire or dismiss anyone.
The issue? Well....there's a very untidy and unexplained use of 8.5 million Euro (roughly 10 million dollars) by the Bremen BamF chief over a fairly short period of time (in less than a year).
Typically, like most US departments....you'd have a bill or receipt to come in....noting that such-and-such order had been fulfilled (a pallet of toilet paper, or six hours of landscaping, or a window replaced). The budget officer would be allowed on their own to file the document, and pay the bill. Once you reach X-level....then the chief would have to review the document, and be the one responsible for paying the bill.
So there's 8.5 million Euro that went out, and no real details on hours or service. What they are admitting....is that it's involving legal services of lawyer shop.
As you read through the piece....it's clear...no one knows much of anything. There is the hint that maybe the chief pocketed some of the money, but there's no substance to suggest that.
What is odd here, as you go and read over the piece....there's a very clear attitude shift now to wrap this up by the opposition parties, and move on. Other than the AfD (the anti-migrant political party)....most of the others are prepared to dismantle the inquiry talk. Why? I suspect that they've asked their polling folks and discovered that the more you talk about this as a scandal....the more anti-immigrant you make the general public. Lack of trust means you can't handle the immigration or migration business, and that's generally a bad thing for the opposition parties to admit.
As for the 8.5 million Euro? Go out and contract one-hundred man-hours of legal work for some cause or reason. If this involved just some junior staff members....you might save a bit. If you involved eight man-hours of this with a PhD level lawyer....the cost factor goes up rapidly. I could see a dozen contracts like this existing, and each one involving half-a-million Euro very easily.
Scandal-wise, again.....there's just not enough 'smoke' to say anything real illegal ever occurred. This may all wrap up by December and other than a hyped-up episode in the news.....nothing ever occurred to fire or dismiss anyone.
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
On Orientation
Focus, the German news magazine, brought up an interesting topic today.
If you are a visa-holding immigrant in Germany or a non-EU member seeking long-term status....you have to go through the integration course (100 hours). It's a course developed by the BamF folks (Federal Office for Migration and Refugees).
So the key term used in the structure and knowledge of the course....is history and values of the Republic.
But Focus points out....a lot of this knowledge really doesn't help in 'everyday life'. Even some instructors and students point out the same issue....the lecture design and information....are somewhat useless.
I've gone through roughly twenty-four hours of the orientation course now, and can say I'm mostly amused by the structure....the design....the limits, and the focus.
My class book? Well....it's a five-star illustrated 'instructment' in terms of graphics and points. But on history alone....it basically covers the 1930s, the war years, the 1960s, the Wall coming down, and the new era. Karl the Great, the Thirty Years War, the plague years, the Roman era? Nothing.
If you wanted to know about the operation of German schools, the discipline, the expectations, the 99 ways to screw up and fail.....for the sake of your kids? Well....there's nothing.
How to shop, or how to get the best deal with handy service? Nothing. Explaining the tax levels and structure? Nothing. The TV tax? Nothing.
There is a fair amount of knowledge given over the German legislative system, the parties, the Chancellor and so on. Politically, you get a fair dose.
If I were in charge, I'd offer up Professor Clark (from Cambridge) and his German history series. I'd have a twenty-hour addition just on economics and how to function in a daily society. If you had kids, I'd offer up six hours on how the system works.
But the problem is that you really can't cram the massive amount of knowledge necessary....into the limited number of hours that the government has deemed appropriate. Some people (especially from third-world countries) might need three-hundred hours of orientation. Focus may have a point on this, but it's hard to see how the government would go and fix this.
If you are a visa-holding immigrant in Germany or a non-EU member seeking long-term status....you have to go through the integration course (100 hours). It's a course developed by the BamF folks (Federal Office for Migration and Refugees).
So the key term used in the structure and knowledge of the course....is history and values of the Republic.
But Focus points out....a lot of this knowledge really doesn't help in 'everyday life'. Even some instructors and students point out the same issue....the lecture design and information....are somewhat useless.
I've gone through roughly twenty-four hours of the orientation course now, and can say I'm mostly amused by the structure....the design....the limits, and the focus.
My class book? Well....it's a five-star illustrated 'instructment' in terms of graphics and points. But on history alone....it basically covers the 1930s, the war years, the 1960s, the Wall coming down, and the new era. Karl the Great, the Thirty Years War, the plague years, the Roman era? Nothing.
If you wanted to know about the operation of German schools, the discipline, the expectations, the 99 ways to screw up and fail.....for the sake of your kids? Well....there's nothing.
How to shop, or how to get the best deal with handy service? Nothing. Explaining the tax levels and structure? Nothing. The TV tax? Nothing.
There is a fair amount of knowledge given over the German legislative system, the parties, the Chancellor and so on. Politically, you get a fair dose.
If I were in charge, I'd offer up Professor Clark (from Cambridge) and his German history series. I'd have a twenty-hour addition just on economics and how to function in a daily society. If you had kids, I'd offer up six hours on how the system works.
But the problem is that you really can't cram the massive amount of knowledge necessary....into the limited number of hours that the government has deemed appropriate. Some people (especially from third-world countries) might need three-hundred hours of orientation. Focus may have a point on this, but it's hard to see how the government would go and fix this.
Travel Tip Near Darmstadt
I spent about half a day on the German rail system, and touring the fossil park at Messel 'Pit'....about an hour south of Frankfurt (5 km north of Darmstadt).
The 'Pit' was at one point an oil sands type place (late 1800s to the 1960s), and was going to be the garbage landfill of Darmstadt until scientists got involved and noted a massive number of fossils there....dating back to 47 million years ago. There are various digs going on in the valley, and science-wise, I'd give the 'Pit' a four-star rating.
So the locals built a park there, and charge you around 14 Euro for the museum walk, and the pit walk.
If you have some interest in prehistoric times, and fossils....it's worth a trip.
Some advice:
1. If arriving at the Darmstadt station, exit the back (not the front) of the station and find platz 22. The F-U bus will cost 3.20 Euro (one-way). They drop you off eventually about 12 minutes walking from the museum. It's about a 22 minute ride from the train station.
2. Allocate a full-hour for the walk, and 45 minutes for the museum.
3. Yes, there is parking.
4. There is a two-star cafe, if you need essentials.
5. Most of the walking tour ladies are extremely educated on fossils and such, but English isn't typically the language (unless you contact and find a special time slot).
6. Drink lots of water before the walk on a hot day.
7. On the way back into town....the bus does stop in the Centrum and there's plenty of places there to eat.
The 'Pit' was at one point an oil sands type place (late 1800s to the 1960s), and was going to be the garbage landfill of Darmstadt until scientists got involved and noted a massive number of fossils there....dating back to 47 million years ago. There are various digs going on in the valley, and science-wise, I'd give the 'Pit' a four-star rating.
So the locals built a park there, and charge you around 14 Euro for the museum walk, and the pit walk.
If you have some interest in prehistoric times, and fossils....it's worth a trip.
Some advice:
1. If arriving at the Darmstadt station, exit the back (not the front) of the station and find platz 22. The F-U bus will cost 3.20 Euro (one-way). They drop you off eventually about 12 minutes walking from the museum. It's about a 22 minute ride from the train station.
2. Allocate a full-hour for the walk, and 45 minutes for the museum.
3. Yes, there is parking.
4. There is a two-star cafe, if you need essentials.
5. Most of the walking tour ladies are extremely educated on fossils and such, but English isn't typically the language (unless you contact and find a special time slot).
6. Drink lots of water before the walk on a hot day.
7. On the way back into town....the bus does stop in the Centrum and there's plenty of places there to eat.
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
BamF 'Scandal' Played Out
For the past two weeks, it's almost nightly now that some commentary or public forum on German public TV carries the Bremen BamF (the immigration agency for the German government) 'scandal'.
So what's the whole deal?
Well, the basic story is that from the various BamF district offices....this shop in Bremen is said to have allowed around around a thousand migrant/immigrants to 'pass' the review' with minimum effort. Somewhere in the middle of this, the accusation of bribes gets brought up.
The opposition parties all sense a chance to draw 'blood' off the BamF Agency, Chancellor Merkel and the Interior Minister (Seehofer). The suggestion of a committee to be called in and review? It's continually brought up, and even the SPD see this as a possibility.
So I sat and looked over everything. What's really missing here? Facts. It's just an accusation. The news folks have muddled this up enough....that you don't even know who first made this accusation.
There are two BamF strategy periods. There is the Manfried Schmidt era....which ended 17 Sep 2015. He was the chief of BamF (the approval/disapproval authority for immigration). He'd managed the agency for roughly five years, and had arrived long before the chaos period started in late 2013. Then you have the Frank-Jurgen Weise era, which started 18 Sep 2015 and carried onto the very end of 2016. There is an odd separation between the two....Schmidt was asked to retire, and Weise was brought in to 'fix' BamF.
What most will say is that by mid-summer of 2014, BamF was getting behind on the approval process. The truth is....so many individuals were applying, without much of an ID or basis for approval, that the agency couldn't handle the flow. So you went from a review period of a couple of weeks, to a review period of a couple of months, and by mid-summer of 2015....you were looking at almost three-quarters of a year for the approval or disapproval.
A number of folks suggested that the process used....was archaic. One management company came to offer its services to review the process, which got a fair number of BamF folks angry. As Weise arrived, he implemented a number of changes, and then brought more employees into the system to resolve the longer times.
Some of this blame being shifted around is that Weise opened the door to change and if they'd only kept the original rules....strict guidelines would have remained in place.
The central accusation? One translator, three lawyers for BamF (contracted out apparently), and one 'mediator' were part of some group with the bribes.
Two weeks ago, Seehofer ordered the Bremen BamF group to halt all paperwork until this investigation is complete. The cops? Well.....they are busy reviewing a lot of evidence collected. So far, no arrests. More offices being reviewed? Yes....roughly ten.
You may very well reach some stage where the bribes and the effort by the five individuals....equals helping on their private time to review package submissions and help the applicants improve the wording in order to meet the BamF standards. This wouldn't surprise me. But until someone states the bribe angle to this....the amount....with charges....none of this really proceeds or wraps up.
In fact, the longer this gets dragged out as some public complaint, the more the anti-immigrant crowd gets aroused over the behavior of the opposition parties, and the operational practices of BamF. In their mind, they are simply proving the complaint that too many migrants were allowed to stay in the country.
A scandal? Maybe. But if the bribe angle doesn't ever play out, then it's a pretty lousy scandal.
So what's the whole deal?
Well, the basic story is that from the various BamF district offices....this shop in Bremen is said to have allowed around around a thousand migrant/immigrants to 'pass' the review' with minimum effort. Somewhere in the middle of this, the accusation of bribes gets brought up.
The opposition parties all sense a chance to draw 'blood' off the BamF Agency, Chancellor Merkel and the Interior Minister (Seehofer). The suggestion of a committee to be called in and review? It's continually brought up, and even the SPD see this as a possibility.
So I sat and looked over everything. What's really missing here? Facts. It's just an accusation. The news folks have muddled this up enough....that you don't even know who first made this accusation.
There are two BamF strategy periods. There is the Manfried Schmidt era....which ended 17 Sep 2015. He was the chief of BamF (the approval/disapproval authority for immigration). He'd managed the agency for roughly five years, and had arrived long before the chaos period started in late 2013. Then you have the Frank-Jurgen Weise era, which started 18 Sep 2015 and carried onto the very end of 2016. There is an odd separation between the two....Schmidt was asked to retire, and Weise was brought in to 'fix' BamF.
What most will say is that by mid-summer of 2014, BamF was getting behind on the approval process. The truth is....so many individuals were applying, without much of an ID or basis for approval, that the agency couldn't handle the flow. So you went from a review period of a couple of weeks, to a review period of a couple of months, and by mid-summer of 2015....you were looking at almost three-quarters of a year for the approval or disapproval.
A number of folks suggested that the process used....was archaic. One management company came to offer its services to review the process, which got a fair number of BamF folks angry. As Weise arrived, he implemented a number of changes, and then brought more employees into the system to resolve the longer times.
Some of this blame being shifted around is that Weise opened the door to change and if they'd only kept the original rules....strict guidelines would have remained in place.
The central accusation? One translator, three lawyers for BamF (contracted out apparently), and one 'mediator' were part of some group with the bribes.
Two weeks ago, Seehofer ordered the Bremen BamF group to halt all paperwork until this investigation is complete. The cops? Well.....they are busy reviewing a lot of evidence collected. So far, no arrests. More offices being reviewed? Yes....roughly ten.
You may very well reach some stage where the bribes and the effort by the five individuals....equals helping on their private time to review package submissions and help the applicants improve the wording in order to meet the BamF standards. This wouldn't surprise me. But until someone states the bribe angle to this....the amount....with charges....none of this really proceeds or wraps up.
In fact, the longer this gets dragged out as some public complaint, the more the anti-immigrant crowd gets aroused over the behavior of the opposition parties, and the operational practices of BamF. In their mind, they are simply proving the complaint that too many migrants were allowed to stay in the country.
A scandal? Maybe. But if the bribe angle doesn't ever play out, then it's a pretty lousy scandal.
Explaining the British Theme of Freedom of Speech
Maybe before the 1990s....there was what you'd view as the American style of freedom of speech. But as 1998 came around....the UK started to fall within the EU and they wrote up Article 10 within the UK law.
In this effort to effect change....they wrote broad exceptions to freedom of speech. Anything you say in public, in a group or hall, that suggests a threat, or abusive-style wording, or even just an angry behavior....is a problem.
So the authorities or cops could hear something and sense that you were harassing someone, or alarming the general public by your speech. You might be on the verge of causing distress with a certain group of people. Or, you you might be 'breaching the peace'. Half of Churchill's speeches? They'd likely breach the peace.
This same effort in Article ten says that if you convey something in writing that is regarded as indecent, or offensive in nature....that it might cause anxiety or panic upon the receiver....that's prohibited. Half the works of Joseph Conrad? Probably couldn't be written or published in the UK today.
If you suggest anything of a anti-religious way.....well....that's a violation of Article ten. If you wrote something that made terror acts seem like 'wonderful' or 'reasonable'.....that also violates Article ten.
In fact, they said that if you seriously talked or advocated the dismantlement of the crown or the death of the Queen.....that would move onto the idea of treason.
Article Ten even covers obscenity, and indecency.
All of this leads onto restrictions of court reporting. You can't cover a news story in a court situation.....reporting the victims or those accused.
In fact, Article Ten even got around to company trade secrets, government classified information, patent information, the conduct or behavior of military personnel, and there's even a statement in the Article which covers advertising.
At the time, people were reassured, that no one would go and take this to extremes. Well....it's pretty much going by the novel 1984 script.....they achieved exactly what people feared in 1998 when Article Ten became a reality.
A free nation? No. They've dug a pretty deep hole and it resembles Nazi Germany in the late 1930s. Who prepared Article Ten? Well....the Labor Party was in charge at this point, and they drafted the original document.
The real effect here? It's a curious thing. You could come over to the UK and sip an Ale with two friends at a local bar. You might get into talking some rough words over something, and four hours later (around midnight) at your hotel room....you have a knock at the door. Cops have arrived and seek to arrest you. The judge will see you in the morning.....bringing in the two friends, and note that someone else in the bar heard the 'rough-talk', and they've complained. The friends are fearful of the charge potential, so they agree with the judge. In a matter of an hour, you are convicted and offered a slim window of twelve hours to exit the UK and never return.....paying a 500 pound fee along the way.
My humble guess is that you have two groups in the UK today. You have those who live in fear each and every day that they might utter something to get themselves arrested for an Article Ten violation. Then you have those who wander around and think they'd never be arrested because they are the 'right' people.
For those who said that Nazi behavior and expectations would never occur again? They were wrong.
In this effort to effect change....they wrote broad exceptions to freedom of speech. Anything you say in public, in a group or hall, that suggests a threat, or abusive-style wording, or even just an angry behavior....is a problem.
So the authorities or cops could hear something and sense that you were harassing someone, or alarming the general public by your speech. You might be on the verge of causing distress with a certain group of people. Or, you you might be 'breaching the peace'. Half of Churchill's speeches? They'd likely breach the peace.
This same effort in Article ten says that if you convey something in writing that is regarded as indecent, or offensive in nature....that it might cause anxiety or panic upon the receiver....that's prohibited. Half the works of Joseph Conrad? Probably couldn't be written or published in the UK today.
If you suggest anything of a anti-religious way.....well....that's a violation of Article ten. If you wrote something that made terror acts seem like 'wonderful' or 'reasonable'.....that also violates Article ten.
In fact, they said that if you seriously talked or advocated the dismantlement of the crown or the death of the Queen.....that would move onto the idea of treason.
Article Ten even covers obscenity, and indecency.
All of this leads onto restrictions of court reporting. You can't cover a news story in a court situation.....reporting the victims or those accused.
In fact, Article Ten even got around to company trade secrets, government classified information, patent information, the conduct or behavior of military personnel, and there's even a statement in the Article which covers advertising.
At the time, people were reassured, that no one would go and take this to extremes. Well....it's pretty much going by the novel 1984 script.....they achieved exactly what people feared in 1998 when Article Ten became a reality.
A free nation? No. They've dug a pretty deep hole and it resembles Nazi Germany in the late 1930s. Who prepared Article Ten? Well....the Labor Party was in charge at this point, and they drafted the original document.
The real effect here? It's a curious thing. You could come over to the UK and sip an Ale with two friends at a local bar. You might get into talking some rough words over something, and four hours later (around midnight) at your hotel room....you have a knock at the door. Cops have arrived and seek to arrest you. The judge will see you in the morning.....bringing in the two friends, and note that someone else in the bar heard the 'rough-talk', and they've complained. The friends are fearful of the charge potential, so they agree with the judge. In a matter of an hour, you are convicted and offered a slim window of twelve hours to exit the UK and never return.....paying a 500 pound fee along the way.
My humble guess is that you have two groups in the UK today. You have those who live in fear each and every day that they might utter something to get themselves arrested for an Article Ten violation. Then you have those who wander around and think they'd never be arrested because they are the 'right' people.
For those who said that Nazi behavior and expectations would never occur again? They were wrong.
The German Summer Vacation Period, and It's Effect
Somewhere around mid-June, to late August, if you've been around Germany for while (a decade), you tend to notice that nothing gets done.
A great example is that you might have something that require bureaucratic work at the local town-hall or county administration, and you walk in to discover that Frau such-and-such isn't there. She started her three weeks of summer vacation. So you ask who is filling in for her, and the typical answer is 'no one', and you have to come back after her vacation. So you wait the three weeks, and she's there's there to do phase one of the paperwork but you require a review and stamp from Frau such-and-such next door....only to discover that she's now into the second week of her three week vacation. You just needed three minutes of the first lady and a minute of the second lady...only to discover it requires you to wait five weeks.
Schools and universities work this way. About the only functional office that still works with minimal delay is the post office system. To some degree, the office in each town handling marriage licenses will probably function, but with some 'rookie' filling in for the main clerk.
Years ago, I asked a German about this trend, and he said it wasn't quite this bad in the 1960s or 1970s, but it intensified in the 80s and 90s. Most everyone wants to take three weeks off now. And most refuse to train anyone about their work area because of some personal fear that they might be replaced.
I had this brought up in class today. The fifteen students in this class would like to do their test as the course ends on the last day of June. Well....the instructor laid out the problem....no testing will be scheduled until mid-August. So you might end up with a last week of August, and not see the results until the middle of September. That's a heck of a long way from today (the end of May).
All across Germany, it's the same trend.
A great example is that you might have something that require bureaucratic work at the local town-hall or county administration, and you walk in to discover that Frau such-and-such isn't there. She started her three weeks of summer vacation. So you ask who is filling in for her, and the typical answer is 'no one', and you have to come back after her vacation. So you wait the three weeks, and she's there's there to do phase one of the paperwork but you require a review and stamp from Frau such-and-such next door....only to discover that she's now into the second week of her three week vacation. You just needed three minutes of the first lady and a minute of the second lady...only to discover it requires you to wait five weeks.
Schools and universities work this way. About the only functional office that still works with minimal delay is the post office system. To some degree, the office in each town handling marriage licenses will probably function, but with some 'rookie' filling in for the main clerk.
Years ago, I asked a German about this trend, and he said it wasn't quite this bad in the 1960s or 1970s, but it intensified in the 80s and 90s. Most everyone wants to take three weeks off now. And most refuse to train anyone about their work area because of some personal fear that they might be replaced.
I had this brought up in class today. The fifteen students in this class would like to do their test as the course ends on the last day of June. Well....the instructor laid out the problem....no testing will be scheduled until mid-August. So you might end up with a last week of August, and not see the results until the middle of September. That's a heck of a long way from today (the end of May).
All across Germany, it's the same trend.
Sunday, May 27, 2018
The EU-Plastic Straw Story
I often essay criticisms of the EU, in that they are forever looking for the next thing to 'fix'.
Today, it came out via ARD (Channel One, public TV, here in Germany), that a draft exists over a plan/law that would forbid the sales of plastic stirring sticks, and plastic straws. The ban would also cover plastic plates and plastic cutlery (knives, forks, spoons).
All of this would prevent plastic waste from getting into the ecosystem.
I sat and paused over this idea. In the case of straws, you could move onto paper straws. But with the plastic cutlery, it'll prove to be a problem. Most fast-food places aren't going to want to disperse real cutlery, and if you went to wood items.....well, you'd get the environmental folks all upset over cutting down more trees.
One can understand the positive nature of this 'fix' but the solution or next step makes this a bigger mess. Odds of this passing? I'd suggest 99-percent chance, and it'll probably happen by late summer, with an effective date of late 2019.
So, you might want to go out and buy a hundred boxes of plastic straws to cover the rest of your life.
Today, it came out via ARD (Channel One, public TV, here in Germany), that a draft exists over a plan/law that would forbid the sales of plastic stirring sticks, and plastic straws. The ban would also cover plastic plates and plastic cutlery (knives, forks, spoons).
All of this would prevent plastic waste from getting into the ecosystem.
I sat and paused over this idea. In the case of straws, you could move onto paper straws. But with the plastic cutlery, it'll prove to be a problem. Most fast-food places aren't going to want to disperse real cutlery, and if you went to wood items.....well, you'd get the environmental folks all upset over cutting down more trees.
One can understand the positive nature of this 'fix' but the solution or next step makes this a bigger mess. Odds of this passing? I'd suggest 99-percent chance, and it'll probably happen by late summer, with an effective date of late 2019.
So, you might want to go out and buy a hundred boxes of plastic straws to cover the rest of your life.
Saturday, May 26, 2018
Kohl's Comment
Most all news sources in Germany today are talking over a document that popped up from the Helmut Kohl period. RTL-TV news (commercial TV news) reports the piece that I reference.
At some point around the 1999 period, in an election phase....Chancellor Kohl talk up the reference of "blooming landscapes" as he talked about the improvement background of former DDR (East Germany). In the document that popped up....he said in a blunt way that it was a serious mistake to make that comment because it just wasn't true.
Most folks who came over into eastern Germany after the wall came down.....Particularly in the 1990 to 2000 era....would say that it looked like 'crap' (my words). Yes, the appearance of a third-world country. My first trip over the Wall-area came around 1999 and I'd describe the roads as looking first rate, but virtually everything else looking like 1945.
Three years ago, I made a week-long trip into Dresden. The city itself? Looking like most of western Germany. But if you got six miles outside of the circle, it looked like the 1945 era.
I brought this whole Kohl topic up and my German wife observed that in her youth (early 80s), her class went for three days to West Berlin. One day was spent touring the eastern side and as she noted.....it looked like some third-world urban area. She was somewhat appreciative about West Germany after that trip.
As for Kohl's 'blooming landscapes' comment? I suspect if you mentioned this to East Germans....they probably started laughing, and probably half of all West Germans probably felt Kohl was nuts.
But onto the real question....here we are....approaching thirty years of unification. Is the eastern side of Germany recovered? My humble belief is that while journalists and politicians might say yes.....Germans themselves would say that it might take another thirty years. Why bring up the Kohl comment? That's probably another good question.
At some point around the 1999 period, in an election phase....Chancellor Kohl talk up the reference of "blooming landscapes" as he talked about the improvement background of former DDR (East Germany). In the document that popped up....he said in a blunt way that it was a serious mistake to make that comment because it just wasn't true.
Most folks who came over into eastern Germany after the wall came down.....Particularly in the 1990 to 2000 era....would say that it looked like 'crap' (my words). Yes, the appearance of a third-world country. My first trip over the Wall-area came around 1999 and I'd describe the roads as looking first rate, but virtually everything else looking like 1945.
Three years ago, I made a week-long trip into Dresden. The city itself? Looking like most of western Germany. But if you got six miles outside of the circle, it looked like the 1945 era.
I brought this whole Kohl topic up and my German wife observed that in her youth (early 80s), her class went for three days to West Berlin. One day was spent touring the eastern side and as she noted.....it looked like some third-world urban area. She was somewhat appreciative about West Germany after that trip.
As for Kohl's 'blooming landscapes' comment? I suspect if you mentioned this to East Germans....they probably started laughing, and probably half of all West Germans probably felt Kohl was nuts.
But onto the real question....here we are....approaching thirty years of unification. Is the eastern side of Germany recovered? My humble belief is that while journalists and politicians might say yes.....Germans themselves would say that it might take another thirty years. Why bring up the Kohl comment? That's probably another good question.
Zuckerberg and the Likely EU Regulation to Occur
Over the past four days, I've watched about thirty minutes (bits and pieces) of the Facebook CEO meeting with the EU folks. To be honest.....this meeting (hard to even describe as a meeting) would put Mark Zuckerberg center-stage to the EU.
My humble observation over the Zuckerberg performance? You could tell he was extremely aggravated and uncomfortable. He couldn't make them happy. But to be humble here....this wasn't geared to be a meeting where the EU folks could be made happy in any fashion.
My general perception is that they are gearing up for a massive 200-page regulation on social media, and everyone throughout Europe will be sitting there by spring 2019....when it's finally delivered to the public, and they won't be able believe the necessity of implementing so many rules.
Oddly enough....they will do this in time....to affect the 2019 EU election (summer 2019), and probably trigger an anti-EU sentiment to occur.
My humble observation over the Zuckerberg performance? You could tell he was extremely aggravated and uncomfortable. He couldn't make them happy. But to be humble here....this wasn't geared to be a meeting where the EU folks could be made happy in any fashion.
My general perception is that they are gearing up for a massive 200-page regulation on social media, and everyone throughout Europe will be sitting there by spring 2019....when it's finally delivered to the public, and they won't be able believe the necessity of implementing so many rules.
Oddly enough....they will do this in time....to affect the 2019 EU election (summer 2019), and probably trigger an anti-EU sentiment to occur.
'Fine Art' BS
There on Wednesday and Thursday this week.....I sat and watched the evening news with ARD and ZDF (the two public networks of Germany)....watching the 8 PM news with ARD and the 9:45 PM news with ZDF (the more extended business). Both wanted to seriously hype the cancellation of the Trump-Kim meeting, by President Trump.
The theme? Well....true international diplomacy was violated, and President Trump obviously is not capable of diplomacy.
Various people came and went in short video-clips to announce that the finer points of diplomacy were simply not understood, and that the art of international relations was something that Team-Trump was not capable of grasping.
At the conclusion of these, I went back to the London Telegraph, the Brit newspaper Guardian, the Wall Street Journal, and three or four other independent news groups. Basically, they all led to the simple short story. Kim's team was supposed to show up for a pre-summit meeting in Singapore, and they failed to show. No excuses were provided....they just never did show up. The Trump-team sat there a bit bewildered and then left.
There's this odd German trait that I often hype upon. If some German (a dentist or social office person) gives you an appointment to be somewhere on Thursday at 9:00 AM.....you 'damn-well' need to be there. And no, just being 20 minutes late because of parking issues is not a legit excuse (they will tell you that).
In the American business world, if there is some big meeting scheduled between two corporate giants....a pre-meeting with junior officers of both companies will occur....to ensure that the topics are laid out and the boss isn't standing there with some other guy....with a zero-topic agenda on their hands.
So I look back at the ARD and ZDF attempt to tell this story, and kinda wonder.....why not mention that the North Korean team simply refused to show up for the pre-summit meeting? Instead, you got twenty-odd minutes of fake hype over some dramatic topic of 'fine art' diplomacy that means mostly nothing. In their scenario, you would have sat there in a half-empty room....sipping fine coffee and talking over your latest cinema experience, and along about the end of the second day....admire that your other team never showed up. Everyone would pat each other on the back, and you'd go home to talk about the successful pre-summit meeting which would have gone well....if the other guys had shown up.
The problem now? Well....Kim's folks hint that the summit is back on track, and might still occur on schedule. How will the ZDF and ARD news folks explain this to the German public? Yes, that's a curious question. The 'fine art' of Trump diplomacy might be something difficult to explain.
The theme? Well....true international diplomacy was violated, and President Trump obviously is not capable of diplomacy.
Various people came and went in short video-clips to announce that the finer points of diplomacy were simply not understood, and that the art of international relations was something that Team-Trump was not capable of grasping.
At the conclusion of these, I went back to the London Telegraph, the Brit newspaper Guardian, the Wall Street Journal, and three or four other independent news groups. Basically, they all led to the simple short story. Kim's team was supposed to show up for a pre-summit meeting in Singapore, and they failed to show. No excuses were provided....they just never did show up. The Trump-team sat there a bit bewildered and then left.
There's this odd German trait that I often hype upon. If some German (a dentist or social office person) gives you an appointment to be somewhere on Thursday at 9:00 AM.....you 'damn-well' need to be there. And no, just being 20 minutes late because of parking issues is not a legit excuse (they will tell you that).
In the American business world, if there is some big meeting scheduled between two corporate giants....a pre-meeting with junior officers of both companies will occur....to ensure that the topics are laid out and the boss isn't standing there with some other guy....with a zero-topic agenda on their hands.
So I look back at the ARD and ZDF attempt to tell this story, and kinda wonder.....why not mention that the North Korean team simply refused to show up for the pre-summit meeting? Instead, you got twenty-odd minutes of fake hype over some dramatic topic of 'fine art' diplomacy that means mostly nothing. In their scenario, you would have sat there in a half-empty room....sipping fine coffee and talking over your latest cinema experience, and along about the end of the second day....admire that your other team never showed up. Everyone would pat each other on the back, and you'd go home to talk about the successful pre-summit meeting which would have gone well....if the other guys had shown up.
The problem now? Well....Kim's folks hint that the summit is back on track, and might still occur on schedule. How will the ZDF and ARD news folks explain this to the German public? Yes, that's a curious question. The 'fine art' of Trump diplomacy might be something difficult to explain.
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)
If you were an American living or visiting in Europe in the past week.....you've come to hear about GDPR a good bit.
The EU sat down and wrote up a regulation (like the one they wrote for vacuum cleaners, or tea pots, or ceiling fans), and it centered on the use of personal data held by companies (like your bank, your credit card company, etc). But it even went on to affect Facebook, newspapers, magazines, social media, etc.
Basically, because the deadline has come now.....the companies (based in the US) are simply sending out a piece to each customer to let them know GDPR is in place, and they need to 'click' accept.
How big a regulation is it? 57,509 words.
Yeah.....roughly 200 pages.
How many people have actually read the whole 200 pages? That would be a curious question.
I suspect that you've got a number of technical folks who read it, and basically broke it down into ten pages of useful information, and the rest of the 200 pages are just 'filler-material'. The problem here is that the EU wants to appear to it's people as protecting their privacy. If you really wanted to protect your own privacy.....you'd avoid social media or commenting on public stories (like we all did prior to the internet age).
Those BREXIT folks? They are standing there and grinning because this is exactly the problem they used in the campaign. Is GDPR really doing much of anything to protect your privacy, or is it simply step one of massive control coming down the pike?
The EU sat down and wrote up a regulation (like the one they wrote for vacuum cleaners, or tea pots, or ceiling fans), and it centered on the use of personal data held by companies (like your bank, your credit card company, etc). But it even went on to affect Facebook, newspapers, magazines, social media, etc.
Basically, because the deadline has come now.....the companies (based in the US) are simply sending out a piece to each customer to let them know GDPR is in place, and they need to 'click' accept.
How big a regulation is it? 57,509 words.
Yeah.....roughly 200 pages.
How many people have actually read the whole 200 pages? That would be a curious question.
I suspect that you've got a number of technical folks who read it, and basically broke it down into ten pages of useful information, and the rest of the 200 pages are just 'filler-material'. The problem here is that the EU wants to appear to it's people as protecting their privacy. If you really wanted to protect your own privacy.....you'd avoid social media or commenting on public stories (like we all did prior to the internet age).
Those BREXIT folks? They are standing there and grinning because this is exactly the problem they used in the campaign. Is GDPR really doing much of anything to protect your privacy, or is it simply step one of massive control coming down the pike?
Friday, May 25, 2018
The Finger-Print Story
It's a piece carried by various German news sources, but I'll reference it back to Deutsche Welle. Back around two years ago....the Germans were hyping up that they'd going after and had gotten finger-print technology and was going to install it in all asylum-application offices. Well...they didn't exactly do that.
This technology was supposed to prevent dual registrations....where asylum seekers were sneaky and applying in two or three different states.
Presently, out of the 494 immigration offices and social offices.....200 are lacking the capability. The fix-it date? BamF says that around by September of this year.....they would be totally fixed up....while social offices are talking about the very end of 2018.
What this all means? My guess is that you will see a wave of several hundred folks are registered in two separate states (probably less than a thousand though). The BamF and social office folks will get highly embarrassed and this will be talked about for a week or two.
Why did it take this long? That's avoided in the discussion. The news folks from public TV aren't asking and one might sense that it's a pretty stupid reason.
This technology was supposed to prevent dual registrations....where asylum seekers were sneaky and applying in two or three different states.
Presently, out of the 494 immigration offices and social offices.....200 are lacking the capability. The fix-it date? BamF says that around by September of this year.....they would be totally fixed up....while social offices are talking about the very end of 2018.
What this all means? My guess is that you will see a wave of several hundred folks are registered in two separate states (probably less than a thousand though). The BamF and social office folks will get highly embarrassed and this will be talked about for a week or two.
Why did it take this long? That's avoided in the discussion. The news folks from public TV aren't asking and one might sense that it's a pretty stupid reason.
Schwarz Arbeit Talk
I sat through a German integration course today, and one of the five big topics of the class was 'schwarz-arbeit' (black work, or unreported income work).
The instructor probably spent at least 25 minutes on the topic....often hyping and stressing that this is 'verboten' (illegal).
Everyone has an opinion on this. Most working-class Germans will tell you that the underground economy or black work.....is the only way to get ahead. Some upper-class folks will tell you that they work hard.....to avoid being seen in a black work situation but appreciate having the hidden income existing.
How many Germans are working on the 'black'? It's hard to say. The government will cite estimates but they are purely educated guesses. Universities and foundations will give you a figure and it's based on interviews. I would take a fair estimate that one of every ten Germans will find some way in an average year to make a bit cash which is not reported.
I worked with a guy in the early 1990s, whose German landlord who had a regular job from Monday through Friday, and had a secretive landscaping service strictly on Saturdays, which he'd net a minimum of 500 Marks in a single day. Around fifteen years ago, one of my associates brought up his German neighbor who was doing tile work on weekends and probably drawing 15,000 Euro a year via his 'black work'. Another co-worker brought up a major renovation job going on in his neighborhood, and the chief had brought in a couple of Polish guys who were getting paid sixty-percent of what a German would charge for the same work.
My instructors harsh criticism on the topic? You are taking money away from the social society that exists in Germany.
I tend to look at this via the capitalist problem.
You have job X, and bring Y amount to the government, which has some budget in their mind and have 700 'gifts' arranged in some order to hand out to the public. Then one day, you get a black job (x1), and there's this y1 amount of money which you ought to report to the government. If you did report it.....your tax rate would go up (sadly), and instead of 700 'gifts' arranged to hand out and simply giving you the extra money back (for your own pocket).....they then figure that they can hand out 900 'gifts'. Things are fine until three years pass, and bad economic times arrive, and you have not not achieved the y1 amount of money. Sadly, the 900 'gifts' are now expected, and they raise everyone's taxes to reach the higher amount of money. If they would just hand you the money back.....people would be fine with this gimmick. So there is a lack of respect and trust existing.
How the immigrants feel? My sense in the class is that they just want a job right now, and later on....they will worry about black work.
The instructor probably spent at least 25 minutes on the topic....often hyping and stressing that this is 'verboten' (illegal).
Everyone has an opinion on this. Most working-class Germans will tell you that the underground economy or black work.....is the only way to get ahead. Some upper-class folks will tell you that they work hard.....to avoid being seen in a black work situation but appreciate having the hidden income existing.
How many Germans are working on the 'black'? It's hard to say. The government will cite estimates but they are purely educated guesses. Universities and foundations will give you a figure and it's based on interviews. I would take a fair estimate that one of every ten Germans will find some way in an average year to make a bit cash which is not reported.
I worked with a guy in the early 1990s, whose German landlord who had a regular job from Monday through Friday, and had a secretive landscaping service strictly on Saturdays, which he'd net a minimum of 500 Marks in a single day. Around fifteen years ago, one of my associates brought up his German neighbor who was doing tile work on weekends and probably drawing 15,000 Euro a year via his 'black work'. Another co-worker brought up a major renovation job going on in his neighborhood, and the chief had brought in a couple of Polish guys who were getting paid sixty-percent of what a German would charge for the same work.
My instructors harsh criticism on the topic? You are taking money away from the social society that exists in Germany.
I tend to look at this via the capitalist problem.
You have job X, and bring Y amount to the government, which has some budget in their mind and have 700 'gifts' arranged in some order to hand out to the public. Then one day, you get a black job (x1), and there's this y1 amount of money which you ought to report to the government. If you did report it.....your tax rate would go up (sadly), and instead of 700 'gifts' arranged to hand out and simply giving you the extra money back (for your own pocket).....they then figure that they can hand out 900 'gifts'. Things are fine until three years pass, and bad economic times arrive, and you have not not achieved the y1 amount of money. Sadly, the 900 'gifts' are now expected, and they raise everyone's taxes to reach the higher amount of money. If they would just hand you the money back.....people would be fine with this gimmick. So there is a lack of respect and trust existing.
How the immigrants feel? My sense in the class is that they just want a job right now, and later on....they will worry about black work.
Thursday, May 24, 2018
Scandal Talk over BamF and My Humble Feeling
Over the past two weeks, there's been a fair amount of talk in Germany over scandal with BamF (the agency that does immigration approval or disapproval). The Bremen office got into the original trouble, but there's talk now of a national audit and more bad episodes to be put out in public view.
The talk of bribes? It continues but you get the impression that the interpreter crowd (hired immigrants themselves) were mostly the ones who got into bribes. You don't hear much of the BamF German employees getting bribes (least not yet).
So this is what I think came to occur.
1. The 700-man agency (BamF) that existed in 2012...had existed for decades with a simple practice. You (the immigrant) walked into a consulate or embassy, talked to the German folks, and filled out the application form while in your home-country. You presented an ID. The folks at the embassy did a basic background check and confirmed you weren't nuts or a prison-releasee. What they sent onto BamF in Nuremberg was a package that had probably one-third of the stress work done.
2. After 2013 started up and a whole lot of folks were walking into Germany....BamF had a mess on their hands. They didn't have the manpower to do all the ID checks, the background checks, and 'foot-work'. They got behind, and I suspect that if you talked to the older employees....by mid-summer of 2014, they were taking six months to do something that used to take six weeks.
3. Rather than admit 'defeat' or whatever you'd call this slowed-down process.....they continued on. Bringing in new employees? It would be exactly what an American firm or organization would do. They didn't want to do it because it'd take months to train more people. By summer of 2014, they should have been adding a hundred people every month, and hiring up retired personnel to be trainers.
4. By 2015 in the spring....the numbers were inflating again. I suspect that they (BamF) reached a point where they were just approving folks with minimum review....just to get the numbers down and appear that bad in terms of length of time for approval. It wouldn't surprise me if they were fumbling around and approving five people out of ten....with no real effort. An audit to catch this screwed-up method? Non-existent.
5. By spring of 2016, they at their deepest point, and finally bringing on more people. Some folks were taking a full year for the approval/disapproval process. Part of the problem centered on so many people not having a valid ID, and giving suspect information (all part of the process that never occurred in 2012 or prior).
6. People at the top who should have observed all of this? Merkel and her ministers? No. The head of BamF back in 2013 to 2015? I doubt if he understood the complex way his organization functioned and the helpful way that the application back in the home-country (with the ID) helped to avoid hassle and extra hours. Even when this guy got 'dumped' (they basically told him to retire)....the new guy came in....got more employees involved, and tried to fix a couple of things. But I doubt if he understood the whole complex way of visa approval. It's a process, and you can make this simple or complex.
Yes, BamF finally got caught. Now, the penalty? Someone will have to go back....ID all of the faulty approval episodes, and re-examine folks....perhaps telling some guy that he shouldn't have been approved, and thus get a judge involved with a bigger mess in the end. You might actually see 10,000 people who are thinking they are squared away.....who will be told to pack and leave.
I said this in 2015....that the process used for all of this....from sheltering, to the handling business....was all screwed up and that it'd eventually come back to be a major mess that the public could not handle. Well....we've arrived at that point, I think.
The talk of bribes? It continues but you get the impression that the interpreter crowd (hired immigrants themselves) were mostly the ones who got into bribes. You don't hear much of the BamF German employees getting bribes (least not yet).
So this is what I think came to occur.
1. The 700-man agency (BamF) that existed in 2012...had existed for decades with a simple practice. You (the immigrant) walked into a consulate or embassy, talked to the German folks, and filled out the application form while in your home-country. You presented an ID. The folks at the embassy did a basic background check and confirmed you weren't nuts or a prison-releasee. What they sent onto BamF in Nuremberg was a package that had probably one-third of the stress work done.
2. After 2013 started up and a whole lot of folks were walking into Germany....BamF had a mess on their hands. They didn't have the manpower to do all the ID checks, the background checks, and 'foot-work'. They got behind, and I suspect that if you talked to the older employees....by mid-summer of 2014, they were taking six months to do something that used to take six weeks.
3. Rather than admit 'defeat' or whatever you'd call this slowed-down process.....they continued on. Bringing in new employees? It would be exactly what an American firm or organization would do. They didn't want to do it because it'd take months to train more people. By summer of 2014, they should have been adding a hundred people every month, and hiring up retired personnel to be trainers.
4. By 2015 in the spring....the numbers were inflating again. I suspect that they (BamF) reached a point where they were just approving folks with minimum review....just to get the numbers down and appear that bad in terms of length of time for approval. It wouldn't surprise me if they were fumbling around and approving five people out of ten....with no real effort. An audit to catch this screwed-up method? Non-existent.
5. By spring of 2016, they at their deepest point, and finally bringing on more people. Some folks were taking a full year for the approval/disapproval process. Part of the problem centered on so many people not having a valid ID, and giving suspect information (all part of the process that never occurred in 2012 or prior).
6. People at the top who should have observed all of this? Merkel and her ministers? No. The head of BamF back in 2013 to 2015? I doubt if he understood the complex way his organization functioned and the helpful way that the application back in the home-country (with the ID) helped to avoid hassle and extra hours. Even when this guy got 'dumped' (they basically told him to retire)....the new guy came in....got more employees involved, and tried to fix a couple of things. But I doubt if he understood the whole complex way of visa approval. It's a process, and you can make this simple or complex.
Yes, BamF finally got caught. Now, the penalty? Someone will have to go back....ID all of the faulty approval episodes, and re-examine folks....perhaps telling some guy that he shouldn't have been approved, and thus get a judge involved with a bigger mess in the end. You might actually see 10,000 people who are thinking they are squared away.....who will be told to pack and leave.
I said this in 2015....that the process used for all of this....from sheltering, to the handling business....was all screwed up and that it'd eventually come back to be a major mess that the public could not handle. Well....we've arrived at that point, I think.
Deportee Story
It's a page two type story from Focus magazine this morning (the news magazine folks here in Germany). The topic? Well....deportations of failed visa applicants has a problem.
The basic story centers on the first quarter of 2018.
In this period....every other deportation effort in Germany....failed.
The German cops, who hold the responsibility of deporting folks.....say that 5548 folks were deported. But in the same quarter....there were another 4,752 deportations which failed or could not occur.
There are various reasons where a deportation can fail....some relate to health conditions. Some to legal situations. But Focus brought up this one odd aspect. Seventy-five episodes were halted because the pilots refused to fly the plane with the deportees onboard.
Justified? Yes.....to some degree. Pilots are supposed to worry about safety, and if they think that the guy being brought onboard is a nutcase or potential threat....they can say no.
The German cops? They are a bit aggravated over the high number (4,752). They invest man-hours into this 'act' and each failed deportation adds onto a number which is public information. It makes them look bad....even if it's not their fault.
What the cops are suggesting? There's some hint that they'd like to go and arrange one flight (figure 90-plus seats) via a chartered airline (filled with only deportees) to go to X-country. The chartered airline would bid on the flight....likely ensure a fair profit....and agree to have a pilot there to fulfill the obligation (probably NOT a German pilot, that's my humble guess).
The potential mess? I tend to look at the worst possible scenario of things and the one that stands out in this case? What if you chartered such a flight, with 150-deportees onboard, and it crashed? Can you imagine the pro-asylum crowd and the hostile nature coming out of such an event? Naturally, they'd tell you that it'd be ok if this were a regular flight with 145 non-deportees and 5 deportees onboard (so much easier for these folks to accept).
The problem with this idea is that you'd have to bring in a thousand cops to ensure an operation like this with one single flight....filled with forced deportees....was effectively carried out. It just makes it into a bigger mess.
The basic story centers on the first quarter of 2018.
In this period....every other deportation effort in Germany....failed.
The German cops, who hold the responsibility of deporting folks.....say that 5548 folks were deported. But in the same quarter....there were another 4,752 deportations which failed or could not occur.
There are various reasons where a deportation can fail....some relate to health conditions. Some to legal situations. But Focus brought up this one odd aspect. Seventy-five episodes were halted because the pilots refused to fly the plane with the deportees onboard.
Justified? Yes.....to some degree. Pilots are supposed to worry about safety, and if they think that the guy being brought onboard is a nutcase or potential threat....they can say no.
The German cops? They are a bit aggravated over the high number (4,752). They invest man-hours into this 'act' and each failed deportation adds onto a number which is public information. It makes them look bad....even if it's not their fault.
What the cops are suggesting? There's some hint that they'd like to go and arrange one flight (figure 90-plus seats) via a chartered airline (filled with only deportees) to go to X-country. The chartered airline would bid on the flight....likely ensure a fair profit....and agree to have a pilot there to fulfill the obligation (probably NOT a German pilot, that's my humble guess).
The potential mess? I tend to look at the worst possible scenario of things and the one that stands out in this case? What if you chartered such a flight, with 150-deportees onboard, and it crashed? Can you imagine the pro-asylum crowd and the hostile nature coming out of such an event? Naturally, they'd tell you that it'd be ok if this were a regular flight with 145 non-deportees and 5 deportees onboard (so much easier for these folks to accept).
The problem with this idea is that you'd have to bring in a thousand cops to ensure an operation like this with one single flight....filled with forced deportees....was effectively carried out. It just makes it into a bigger mess.
Hamburg Diesel Business
In roughly a week....Hamburg will be the first German city to ban diesel cars to some extent. It'll be two major avenues in the city, which will have a sign noting that diesel cars are 'verbotten' (forbidden).
The deal? Max-Brauer Allee will have around 580 meters closed off to any diesel vehicle that less than the Euro-6 standard.
The second street is SStresemannstraße . Oddly, the rule here is different....it'll be closed off to older diesel trucks....NOT cars. But it also gets more complicated.....there are exemptions on this street. For example, garbage trucks and delivery vehicles are OK. Rescue vehicles are OK. Residents who live on this street having diesel trucks? They will be OK.
You have a mix of Germans who've commented on this business. Some feel that it's being developed as a very complicated procedure. Some suggest that all of the diesel traffic (especially on Max-Brauer Allee....will simply go to the next avenue, and in six months....that pollution rate will make the next candidate to have forbidden traffic.
The curious thing here is what happens about four weeks into the next phase on Max-Brauer Allee. If they do the air sample, and you only see a marginal 10-percent improvement in thirty days.....is that an indication that maybe there's a secondary problem?
Will there be wave after wave in the coming years of streets being forbidden for diesel vehicles? No one can say for sure. It just makes things more complicated.
The deal? Max-Brauer Allee will have around 580 meters closed off to any diesel vehicle that less than the Euro-6 standard.
The second street is SStresemannstraße . Oddly, the rule here is different....it'll be closed off to older diesel trucks....NOT cars. But it also gets more complicated.....there are exemptions on this street. For example, garbage trucks and delivery vehicles are OK. Rescue vehicles are OK. Residents who live on this street having diesel trucks? They will be OK.
You have a mix of Germans who've commented on this business. Some feel that it's being developed as a very complicated procedure. Some suggest that all of the diesel traffic (especially on Max-Brauer Allee....will simply go to the next avenue, and in six months....that pollution rate will make the next candidate to have forbidden traffic.
The curious thing here is what happens about four weeks into the next phase on Max-Brauer Allee. If they do the air sample, and you only see a marginal 10-percent improvement in thirty days.....is that an indication that maybe there's a secondary problem?
Will there be wave after wave in the coming years of streets being forbidden for diesel vehicles? No one can say for sure. It just makes things more complicated.
13,000 Jobs? Maybe?
This got brought up today by ARD (Channel One, German public TV). It's a health story, but it's also a jobs story.
The German Health Minister, Jens Spahn, says that the ministry wants to move ahead and pursue improving the healthcare sector. This means adding 13,000 more nurses and technicians onto the national health 'grid'.
The money to fill the jobs? It'll come from the tax base, and will have an impact.
But the chief question is.....where do you find 13,000 qualified nurses? Coming out of thin air?
A couple of years ago, some German company went to the Philippines and started a nursing academy. The deal was simple.....German language classes were developed, and a nursing program (with certifications) was attached. You'd finish up this program, and get a work-visa into Germany. The idea was a couple hundred a year. But that was just to counter-balance the shortage that occurs in a normal year....not to fill 13,000 more positions.
My general guess is that a number of nurses in places like Greece, Czech, Romania, and Bulgaria will look at the pay offerings, consider the language classes, and maybe up to forty-percent of these positions will be filled. Maybe from the recent immigrants into Germany.....you might find a couple of thousand with the ability to fill the jobs. But I'll take a guess that in four years, there are still empty positions existing from the 13,000 potential jobs.
The German Health Minister, Jens Spahn, says that the ministry wants to move ahead and pursue improving the healthcare sector. This means adding 13,000 more nurses and technicians onto the national health 'grid'.
The money to fill the jobs? It'll come from the tax base, and will have an impact.
But the chief question is.....where do you find 13,000 qualified nurses? Coming out of thin air?
A couple of years ago, some German company went to the Philippines and started a nursing academy. The deal was simple.....German language classes were developed, and a nursing program (with certifications) was attached. You'd finish up this program, and get a work-visa into Germany. The idea was a couple hundred a year. But that was just to counter-balance the shortage that occurs in a normal year....not to fill 13,000 more positions.
My general guess is that a number of nurses in places like Greece, Czech, Romania, and Bulgaria will look at the pay offerings, consider the language classes, and maybe up to forty-percent of these positions will be filled. Maybe from the recent immigrants into Germany.....you might find a couple of thousand with the ability to fill the jobs. But I'll take a guess that in four years, there are still empty positions existing from the 13,000 potential jobs.
German Economic Worry
I sat and reviewed German news last night from ARD (public TV, Channel One). The newest BIG story told by ARD....about President Trump talking on a new levy for imported cars....which could be up to to 25 percent. Naturally, the Germans are worried.
This centers on cars, trucks, and even parts.
The wording of the story is that the Commerce Department was directed to review an import tariff, and the Trump-question was.....do car imports represent 'national security threat'? How long will such a review take? If this were the Obama Administration.....I'd guess sixty to ninety days. In this case, I can only guess sixty days or less.
As for numbers? The US brings in around 500,000 vehicles per year from Germany. The US imports roughly 1.5-billion dollars worth of vehicles into Germany....although it's very unclear if these are purely cars, or a mix of various vehicles (to include buses, trucks, tractors, etc).
The problem here is that the whole trade business talks....can only occur with the US and the EU at the table....NOT Germany. Germany basically signed away their rights by the way that the EU was given certain powers. This means virtually all members of the EU are given a chance to 'help' Germany, or 'screw' Germany.
Part of this issue was some face-to-face meeting in the first couple of weeks of the Trump Administration, with Chancellor Merkel. Trump wanted to talk trade, and Merkel begged off (avoiding any discussion at all) because the EU is the doorway to trade talks. So, Trump pondered upon the trade business and realize that not all members of the EU are happy about Germany's strength over them. His tactics are to avoid the Germans on trade, and make this an entire discussion by the EU itself.
Connecting back to the failed TTIP? Well....that's the funny thing. Since those talks failed (toward the fall of 2016), no one within the EU has been interested in restarting them. So Trump has put an enormous amount of pressure on the EU folks.....TTIP more or less will have to restart. From the German perspective....the last couple of months of TTIP in 2016 reached a miserable stage where various countries got into the details and voiced objections to the structure. Bringing this back up today? You could be talking about another two years of intense TTIP talk.
All of this would suggest some trade war to start and the one single EU country that could have the most to lose? Germany. And frankly, most of the other EU members would sit and be entertained over the 'stumble'.
This centers on cars, trucks, and even parts.
The wording of the story is that the Commerce Department was directed to review an import tariff, and the Trump-question was.....do car imports represent 'national security threat'? How long will such a review take? If this were the Obama Administration.....I'd guess sixty to ninety days. In this case, I can only guess sixty days or less.
As for numbers? The US brings in around 500,000 vehicles per year from Germany. The US imports roughly 1.5-billion dollars worth of vehicles into Germany....although it's very unclear if these are purely cars, or a mix of various vehicles (to include buses, trucks, tractors, etc).
The problem here is that the whole trade business talks....can only occur with the US and the EU at the table....NOT Germany. Germany basically signed away their rights by the way that the EU was given certain powers. This means virtually all members of the EU are given a chance to 'help' Germany, or 'screw' Germany.
Part of this issue was some face-to-face meeting in the first couple of weeks of the Trump Administration, with Chancellor Merkel. Trump wanted to talk trade, and Merkel begged off (avoiding any discussion at all) because the EU is the doorway to trade talks. So, Trump pondered upon the trade business and realize that not all members of the EU are happy about Germany's strength over them. His tactics are to avoid the Germans on trade, and make this an entire discussion by the EU itself.
Connecting back to the failed TTIP? Well....that's the funny thing. Since those talks failed (toward the fall of 2016), no one within the EU has been interested in restarting them. So Trump has put an enormous amount of pressure on the EU folks.....TTIP more or less will have to restart. From the German perspective....the last couple of months of TTIP in 2016 reached a miserable stage where various countries got into the details and voiced objections to the structure. Bringing this back up today? You could be talking about another two years of intense TTIP talk.
All of this would suggest some trade war to start and the one single EU country that could have the most to lose? Germany. And frankly, most of the other EU members would sit and be entertained over the 'stumble'.
Wednesday, May 23, 2018
Spiral of BamF
There's a decent article over at Focus this morning (the news magazine) which talk about the issue of 1,200-odd asylum applications which were approved in a fraudulent manner by the German BamF agency (they handle all the paperwork for asylum and immigration). An investigation continues, and I suspect we will go far beyond the 1,200 cases....maybe even on up to 12,000 cases (my hunch) in the end. I recommend reading over the article, which will bring up to date over the Bremen episode.
What really happened here? I will sum it up in forty lines.
Prior to 2013, the Germans operated a 700-person agency (BamF) that knew on an average basis that they would have 250,000 folks appear and ask for immigration or asylum on a yearly basis. Those folks.....always had IDs and part of the application process was simple because it was done in the applicant's home country, and the embassy folks would confirm part of the story. I'll refer to this process as version 1.0.
You can figure the process in version 1.0 as being rather simple and the true number of man-hours that BamF had to devote as being probably less than twelve man-hours per applicant. The existence of the true ID and the embassy background work saved countless hours.
As 2013 came, and the new applicants for immigration and asylum arrived.....a fair number had no legit ID, and they were simply walking into Germany. I'll refer to this process as being version 2.0.
Background reviews and proving the true ID of the applicants? That probably doubled and tripled the entire process. Instead of dealing with 250,000 easy applicants.....by 2014 (end of the year), you were dealing with 450,000 folks, and I would take a guess that each applicant was eating up forty to sixty man-hours of time. Stories didn't always prove to be true, and some folks were fraudulent in saying their age or nationality.
BamF was now under pressure.
By the end of 2015, they were up to near 950,000 (some even suggest 1.1 million). I would call this era with BamF as the 3.0 version. They were beyond their capability.
The Merkel team? They were of zero value to BamF, and actually causing the problem to be even worse.
My humble belief is that some BamF folks saw a mess without much relief, and between bribes and just willing nature to clear their plate as quickly as possible.....just gave into temptation and approved visas without much of a review.
You can go back and blame the government for the open door policy but the BamF was kinda set to the pattern of an ID existing, and part of the review process being done in advance. It's like loading sixteen people into a luxury-class Mercedes and expecting it to run at the same level when it had two people in it.
What really happened here? I will sum it up in forty lines.
Prior to 2013, the Germans operated a 700-person agency (BamF) that knew on an average basis that they would have 250,000 folks appear and ask for immigration or asylum on a yearly basis. Those folks.....always had IDs and part of the application process was simple because it was done in the applicant's home country, and the embassy folks would confirm part of the story. I'll refer to this process as version 1.0.
You can figure the process in version 1.0 as being rather simple and the true number of man-hours that BamF had to devote as being probably less than twelve man-hours per applicant. The existence of the true ID and the embassy background work saved countless hours.
As 2013 came, and the new applicants for immigration and asylum arrived.....a fair number had no legit ID, and they were simply walking into Germany. I'll refer to this process as being version 2.0.
Background reviews and proving the true ID of the applicants? That probably doubled and tripled the entire process. Instead of dealing with 250,000 easy applicants.....by 2014 (end of the year), you were dealing with 450,000 folks, and I would take a guess that each applicant was eating up forty to sixty man-hours of time. Stories didn't always prove to be true, and some folks were fraudulent in saying their age or nationality.
BamF was now under pressure.
By the end of 2015, they were up to near 950,000 (some even suggest 1.1 million). I would call this era with BamF as the 3.0 version. They were beyond their capability.
The Merkel team? They were of zero value to BamF, and actually causing the problem to be even worse.
My humble belief is that some BamF folks saw a mess without much relief, and between bribes and just willing nature to clear their plate as quickly as possible.....just gave into temptation and approved visas without much of a review.
You can go back and blame the government for the open door policy but the BamF was kinda set to the pattern of an ID existing, and part of the review process being done in advance. It's like loading sixteen people into a luxury-class Mercedes and expecting it to run at the same level when it had two people in it.
The Lack of a Bribe Story
Last night, I sat with the wife and watched a German news documentary piece from Frontal-21, on ZDF (Channel Two, public TV in Germany).
So the topic was the BamF 'scandal'. BamF is the agency that handles paperwork and the approval process for migrants and immigrants into Germany. In recent weeks, up in Bremen.....the division office for BamF apparently got caught in some fraud episode....having approved hundreds of folks, with no valid reason.
Massive investigation going on, and several thousand cases will be reviewed a second time to see if they were approved under this fraud episode. Suggestions even center on the idea that other regions had the same issue.
So I came to the end of this ZDF production (roughly 8 minutes), and asked my wife....this whole 'scandal' discussed by ZDF's crackerjack reporters....NOT once did they suggest money or bribes were involved? Did I get that correct? Yes, she responded.....an entire report on this scandal and all this fake approval business occuring, and no mention of bribes.
How is that possible.....I asked the wife. She (the German obviously) rolled her eyes and said it can only be two things.
ZDF didn't want to admit that bribes were involved (taking this out of the news piece entirely). Or, in her mind.....there were 'gut-menschen' involved.
Gut-menschen? Well....it's a slang term by Germans to identify Germans who are hopelessly attached to a pro-asylum or pro-migration situation. They would never accept a deportation situation.
As my wife (the German) viewed it....either ZDF is intentionally avoiding the bribe story, or gut-menschen are at the heart of this fraud story.
Typically, people commit fraud, in order to collect money (at least in my American mind). I can't think of too many people with behavioral traits like this.....doing this without some money-angle.
It ended with me shaking my head. They made a big effort to tell this story, but you just sit there and wonder....why would these folks commit to so much fraud, if there was no money involved, and ZDF just left that hanging there.
So the topic was the BamF 'scandal'. BamF is the agency that handles paperwork and the approval process for migrants and immigrants into Germany. In recent weeks, up in Bremen.....the division office for BamF apparently got caught in some fraud episode....having approved hundreds of folks, with no valid reason.
Massive investigation going on, and several thousand cases will be reviewed a second time to see if they were approved under this fraud episode. Suggestions even center on the idea that other regions had the same issue.
So I came to the end of this ZDF production (roughly 8 minutes), and asked my wife....this whole 'scandal' discussed by ZDF's crackerjack reporters....NOT once did they suggest money or bribes were involved? Did I get that correct? Yes, she responded.....an entire report on this scandal and all this fake approval business occuring, and no mention of bribes.
How is that possible.....I asked the wife. She (the German obviously) rolled her eyes and said it can only be two things.
ZDF didn't want to admit that bribes were involved (taking this out of the news piece entirely). Or, in her mind.....there were 'gut-menschen' involved.
Gut-menschen? Well....it's a slang term by Germans to identify Germans who are hopelessly attached to a pro-asylum or pro-migration situation. They would never accept a deportation situation.
As my wife (the German) viewed it....either ZDF is intentionally avoiding the bribe story, or gut-menschen are at the heart of this fraud story.
Typically, people commit fraud, in order to collect money (at least in my American mind). I can't think of too many people with behavioral traits like this.....doing this without some money-angle.
It ended with me shaking my head. They made a big effort to tell this story, but you just sit there and wonder....why would these folks commit to so much fraud, if there was no money involved, and ZDF just left that hanging there.
Monday, May 21, 2018
School Kid Story
This is a minor story, which rarely ever gets told but is of some interest. Focus Magazine (the news folks) tells the basic introduction.
For those who aren't aware....airline prices bump up in Germany four times a year. It's typical in the summer vacation period, the spring 'break', the fall 'break', and the Christmas season. For a family of four, this surge in prices could amount to 1,500 Euro extra.
But there's this odd thing about pricing. Schools will 'break' on a Friday....and the pricing starts on Saturday morning for that 'period'. Lets say that you (as the family head) got this idea.....why not leave for this trip on Wednesday....three days earlier....and save the 1,500 Euro? The problem with this? Your kid would be considered a truant situation, unless you got permission (paperwork). Some schools might approve this.....most probably would not.
So a very small group of parents (unknown quantity to be honest) go and do early trip planning, and leave out of their local airport to save money.
Focus brought it up from a police source in Bavaria.....some parents got 'caught'....at the airport.
The story surrounds ten cases in Allgäu where the Landratsamt got notified (local area of Memmingen).
The minimum in this case? Probably some fine.
The amusing thing here is that the cops are standing there at the security point with the families and contacting the schools. The director of the school could actually force the cops to return the kid to the school, instead of continuing the trip. Based on the commentary, it appears that the schools allowed the trips to continue on but excuses will have to be made, and I would imagine some fine might be forced on the parents.
The odds that these parents will ever use the Bavarian airports again? Zero. My guess is that they will venture up to Frankfurt and avoid any of this school-checking business.
How many parents do this? I would venture to say that maybe one family out of forty will go and do the cheaper airline ticket business. The minute you figure the numbers out and for four people....find 1,500 Euro in savings, it simply makes sense. The amusing thing is that in most schools....the week prior to a break period.....they are simply winding down and doing little to nothing in class but showing up.
For those who aren't aware....airline prices bump up in Germany four times a year. It's typical in the summer vacation period, the spring 'break', the fall 'break', and the Christmas season. For a family of four, this surge in prices could amount to 1,500 Euro extra.
But there's this odd thing about pricing. Schools will 'break' on a Friday....and the pricing starts on Saturday morning for that 'period'. Lets say that you (as the family head) got this idea.....why not leave for this trip on Wednesday....three days earlier....and save the 1,500 Euro? The problem with this? Your kid would be considered a truant situation, unless you got permission (paperwork). Some schools might approve this.....most probably would not.
So a very small group of parents (unknown quantity to be honest) go and do early trip planning, and leave out of their local airport to save money.
Focus brought it up from a police source in Bavaria.....some parents got 'caught'....at the airport.
The story surrounds ten cases in Allgäu where the Landratsamt got notified (local area of Memmingen).
The minimum in this case? Probably some fine.
The amusing thing here is that the cops are standing there at the security point with the families and contacting the schools. The director of the school could actually force the cops to return the kid to the school, instead of continuing the trip. Based on the commentary, it appears that the schools allowed the trips to continue on but excuses will have to be made, and I would imagine some fine might be forced on the parents.
The odds that these parents will ever use the Bavarian airports again? Zero. My guess is that they will venture up to Frankfurt and avoid any of this school-checking business.
How many parents do this? I would venture to say that maybe one family out of forty will go and do the cheaper airline ticket business. The minute you figure the numbers out and for four people....find 1,500 Euro in savings, it simply makes sense. The amusing thing is that in most schools....the week prior to a break period.....they are simply winding down and doing little to nothing in class but showing up.
Squatter Story
In Germany.....in high density urban areas, it's not that uncommon now for squatters to appear in buildings vacated and awaiting renovation teams. Part of the problem is that some buildings might sit for months before renovation starts. Part of the problem is a massive affordable housing crisis in major cities now. And part of the problem is the behavioral tendencies of the squatters.
So, such an event has unfolded in Berlin.....which N-TV (the commercial network) tells the story.
In Berlin, squatters had moved recently into two houses (Neukölln and Kreuzberg districts)....taking over and establishing themselves. Sunday night.....police came and went through a operation to remove the squatters. Fifty-six folks were removed and identified in the process.
The process repeats itself almost every month, and if you follow the German news situation....there's a minimum of one squatter building episode every single week in the country. The unfortunate side to the story is that the cops have to come in fairly large numbers, and the squatters rarely give in without some major confrontation, so you end up with an entire shift wasted for the cops, and some event which gets newsworthy attention.
So, such an event has unfolded in Berlin.....which N-TV (the commercial network) tells the story.
In Berlin, squatters had moved recently into two houses (Neukölln and Kreuzberg districts)....taking over and establishing themselves. Sunday night.....police came and went through a operation to remove the squatters. Fifty-six folks were removed and identified in the process.
The process repeats itself almost every month, and if you follow the German news situation....there's a minimum of one squatter building episode every single week in the country. The unfortunate side to the story is that the cops have to come in fairly large numbers, and the squatters rarely give in without some major confrontation, so you end up with an entire shift wasted for the cops, and some event which gets newsworthy attention.
Sunday, May 20, 2018
German Military Assets
I've essayed recently over the continuing woes of the Bundeswehr, and in this piece.....I'll discuss the hardware situation:
The Navy:
- There are six subs of the 212-variety in the inventory, with two more planned for 2030 (I might question if these will be purchased).
- There are ten total frigates in the inventory, of which four are anti-sub warfare types.
- There are five Corvettes in service, with five more planned for 2023.
- There are twelve coastal type vessels for anti-mine warfare.
- There are 29 vessels that you'd consider for general purpose, supply vessels, or replenishment.
The Air Force:
- There are 87 Tornados, and 94 Typhoons.
- There are 28 Tornados for electronic-counter-measures.
- There are four Airbus 310's for tanker support, and six other aircraft for the same role on order.
- The workhorse for transport is the C-160 with 29 in the inventory. There are 35 Airbus A400 jets on order, with roughly twenty on hand currently. There are three C-130J's on order.
- There are 72 CH-53 helicopters in the inventory. There are 15 EC-145 light utility helicopters in the inventory.
- There are three Herons in the inventory (SUV). And an additional four TQ4's on order.
The Army:
- There are 328 Leopard-2 main battle tanks in the inventory.
- There are 327 Marder infantry vehicles in the inventory.....all set for retirement by 2024. The replacement vehicle? The Puma (350 on order, with around 200 delivered so far).
- There are 898 Fuchs in the inventory presently as APC vehicles. Some of these will be retired by the Boxer series (400 on order).
- The Wiesel series is a light (extremely light) anti-tank tracked vehicle....approximately 272 in number.
- The PzH 2000 series is a self-propelled artillery weapon....around 120 in operation.
- The M270 is a US-made rocket launcher, with 38 in operation.
- There are 115 UH-1 US-made helicopters in the inventory.
- There are 47 Tigers attack helicopters in the inventory.
- There are 47 NH-90 transport helicopters in the current inventory, with another 35 on order.
- Then you come to twenty-five-odd truck or support vehicles, which number up to around 5,000 in number.
The primary issue with the German military? Logistically and in terms of maintenance....they've reached a point (they were already reaching it a decade ago).....where they can't sustain a minimum operational rate. On any given day, you might have sixty-to-eighty percent of aircraft down for maintenance, or awaiting parts. Different folks have tried to explain this, but you generally come around to a wide variety of assets, a minimum depot of spare parts, and a limited number of repair personnel.
Germany, at least in my humble opinion.....could easily run their Army and Navy assets, disposing of the Air Force mission, and have enough maintenance capability to be almost trouble-free. Or they could run the Army and Air Force mission....without the Navy assets, and be trouble-free.
My gut feeling is that the only way ahead is to dispose of one major mission and just admit they aren't in the same league as the UK or France.
The Navy:
- There are six subs of the 212-variety in the inventory, with two more planned for 2030 (I might question if these will be purchased).
- There are ten total frigates in the inventory, of which four are anti-sub warfare types.
- There are five Corvettes in service, with five more planned for 2023.
- There are twelve coastal type vessels for anti-mine warfare.
- There are 29 vessels that you'd consider for general purpose, supply vessels, or replenishment.
The Air Force:
- There are 87 Tornados, and 94 Typhoons.
- There are 28 Tornados for electronic-counter-measures.
- There are four Airbus 310's for tanker support, and six other aircraft for the same role on order.
- The workhorse for transport is the C-160 with 29 in the inventory. There are 35 Airbus A400 jets on order, with roughly twenty on hand currently. There are three C-130J's on order.
- There are 72 CH-53 helicopters in the inventory. There are 15 EC-145 light utility helicopters in the inventory.
- There are three Herons in the inventory (SUV). And an additional four TQ4's on order.
The Army:
- There are 328 Leopard-2 main battle tanks in the inventory.
- There are 327 Marder infantry vehicles in the inventory.....all set for retirement by 2024. The replacement vehicle? The Puma (350 on order, with around 200 delivered so far).
- There are 898 Fuchs in the inventory presently as APC vehicles. Some of these will be retired by the Boxer series (400 on order).
- The Wiesel series is a light (extremely light) anti-tank tracked vehicle....approximately 272 in number.
- The PzH 2000 series is a self-propelled artillery weapon....around 120 in operation.
- The M270 is a US-made rocket launcher, with 38 in operation.
- There are 115 UH-1 US-made helicopters in the inventory.
- There are 47 Tigers attack helicopters in the inventory.
- There are 47 NH-90 transport helicopters in the current inventory, with another 35 on order.
- Then you come to twenty-five-odd truck or support vehicles, which number up to around 5,000 in number.
The primary issue with the German military? Logistically and in terms of maintenance....they've reached a point (they were already reaching it a decade ago).....where they can't sustain a minimum operational rate. On any given day, you might have sixty-to-eighty percent of aircraft down for maintenance, or awaiting parts. Different folks have tried to explain this, but you generally come around to a wide variety of assets, a minimum depot of spare parts, and a limited number of repair personnel.
Germany, at least in my humble opinion.....could easily run their Army and Navy assets, disposing of the Air Force mission, and have enough maintenance capability to be almost trouble-free. Or they could run the Army and Air Force mission....without the Navy assets, and be trouble-free.
My gut feeling is that the only way ahead is to dispose of one major mission and just admit they aren't in the same league as the UK or France.
Money and the German Military
It's a page two story that has major implications. ARD reported most of this.
For several months, the German Bundeswehr (the German military) has spoken to the logistics nightmare they are suffering because operationally....tanks, helicopters, aircraft, subs, and ships are operating at a level that you'd expect. On top of that....the NATO recommended level to be spent by each nation (two-percent GDP) isn't being reached (it's presently at 1.2 percent, and the Bundeswehr was hoping to raise it to 1.5 percent).
Well....at some meeting in the last day or two....Finance Minister Scholz (SPD) stood up and said 'no'.....there will be no extra money pumped into the military budget.
What extra money that he has.....will go to the growth and expansion of the digital network.
The comment used? I kinda liked the wording: "The trees do not grow unfortunately in the sky."
What happens now?
Well....President Trump had hyped up the NATO funding issue, and made blunt talk at Merkel in their recent meeting. I think the US will view this comment by the Finance Minister and move onto some plan 'B', which might eventually amount to US military assets removed from Germany, and probably moved into Poland and the UK (just my humble guess).
But this also puts extreme pressure on the German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen. I think she will review the options, and just start to dismantle some pieces of the military and say they can't competently run a full-strength military....so some things (maybe the subs.....maybe the ships) will be brought into port and just moth-balled.
If you follow recent news....a number of the pilots within the Bundeswehr are angry because they can't get enough flight-time to stay active on their pilot license requirements. This issue has pushed a small number of the pilots to exit and leave for commercial operations.
My view of timing? The UK has to complete BREXIT by April of 2019 (unless something causes it to fail). I suspect that the day after BREXIT....some Trump-team will arrive in the UK and two issues will be put on the table. Trade talks will be one, but a restructure process for US assets in Germany will be laid out. There's a list of forty-plus UK military installations on a closure list at present, and it would make sense for the US to seek use of a couple of these, and transfer military assets mostly into the UK, with perhaps some air unit moving into Poland. I would even go to suggest that 50-percent of the move could be accomplished by the end of 2019.
All of this setting a negative phase for the Merkel coalition? Well.....yes. I would suggest that 50-percent of German society aren't that hyped up over military operations, and aren't thrilled over cost situations. Some might be embarrassed over shutting down certain elements of the military but they aren't going to lose sleep over the topic. But hours will be put into public forums to talk over the Bundeswehr's problems, and when the US suggests the movement.....more hours of talk will occur then.
And the faster network talk (where they are going to put their money)? Well....here's the thing. If you go and rate countries over network speeds and infrastructure reaching a great portion of German society....you get dismal stories over Germany. Germany never breaks into the top ten countries in the world on connection speed (South Korea and Switzerland dominate that list). Back a decade ago, if you'd asked about priorities....the Merkel coalition just refused to make network speed a big deal. They could have already accomplished this five to ten years ago.
So, it's all simmering there....a fairly big mess, and the SPD will help in a way.
For several months, the German Bundeswehr (the German military) has spoken to the logistics nightmare they are suffering because operationally....tanks, helicopters, aircraft, subs, and ships are operating at a level that you'd expect. On top of that....the NATO recommended level to be spent by each nation (two-percent GDP) isn't being reached (it's presently at 1.2 percent, and the Bundeswehr was hoping to raise it to 1.5 percent).
Well....at some meeting in the last day or two....Finance Minister Scholz (SPD) stood up and said 'no'.....there will be no extra money pumped into the military budget.
What extra money that he has.....will go to the growth and expansion of the digital network.
The comment used? I kinda liked the wording: "The trees do not grow unfortunately in the sky."
What happens now?
Well....President Trump had hyped up the NATO funding issue, and made blunt talk at Merkel in their recent meeting. I think the US will view this comment by the Finance Minister and move onto some plan 'B', which might eventually amount to US military assets removed from Germany, and probably moved into Poland and the UK (just my humble guess).
But this also puts extreme pressure on the German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen. I think she will review the options, and just start to dismantle some pieces of the military and say they can't competently run a full-strength military....so some things (maybe the subs.....maybe the ships) will be brought into port and just moth-balled.
If you follow recent news....a number of the pilots within the Bundeswehr are angry because they can't get enough flight-time to stay active on their pilot license requirements. This issue has pushed a small number of the pilots to exit and leave for commercial operations.
My view of timing? The UK has to complete BREXIT by April of 2019 (unless something causes it to fail). I suspect that the day after BREXIT....some Trump-team will arrive in the UK and two issues will be put on the table. Trade talks will be one, but a restructure process for US assets in Germany will be laid out. There's a list of forty-plus UK military installations on a closure list at present, and it would make sense for the US to seek use of a couple of these, and transfer military assets mostly into the UK, with perhaps some air unit moving into Poland. I would even go to suggest that 50-percent of the move could be accomplished by the end of 2019.
All of this setting a negative phase for the Merkel coalition? Well.....yes. I would suggest that 50-percent of German society aren't that hyped up over military operations, and aren't thrilled over cost situations. Some might be embarrassed over shutting down certain elements of the military but they aren't going to lose sleep over the topic. But hours will be put into public forums to talk over the Bundeswehr's problems, and when the US suggests the movement.....more hours of talk will occur then.
And the faster network talk (where they are going to put their money)? Well....here's the thing. If you go and rate countries over network speeds and infrastructure reaching a great portion of German society....you get dismal stories over Germany. Germany never breaks into the top ten countries in the world on connection speed (South Korea and Switzerland dominate that list). Back a decade ago, if you'd asked about priorities....the Merkel coalition just refused to make network speed a big deal. They could have already accomplished this five to ten years ago.
So, it's all simmering there....a fairly big mess, and the SPD will help in a way.
BER Update
I often essay over BER, the new airport project out in Berlin. Today, it popped up in the news again (via Focus, the news magazine).
BER gets mentioned an awful lot for failures in the construction process (it's seven years now past the anticipated completion date).
I could probably write a sixty page story over this project but the main design failure is that the two competing companies that wanted the project and the running contract of the airport....eventually realized that it was worthless to compete, and instead....combined their efforts, and became the one and only company bidding. The shocker is....the city leadership then realized the game, and said 'no'....no one will get the contract.....the city itself will build the airport, and run it themselves. From that point on, it was a massive mess.
So today, it got brought up that a safety review was conducted in mid-April 2018, and BER has continuing risks.
The topic now is cable refurbishment, and being roughly 11 months behind. The TUV inspection (the German safety inspection folks) just said no.....they aren't anywhere near operating status. The report listed out "863 major deficiencies".
Another suggested opening period? No one says much.
Some folks had felt that by summer of 2019....they'd be open. I have my doubts that it'll be open in 2019, and this will stretch on into 2020.....requiring more cash infusion by the city, and pushing the debt a bit more.
Anyone going to prison over the mess? No, that's the odd thing.
BER gets mentioned an awful lot for failures in the construction process (it's seven years now past the anticipated completion date).
I could probably write a sixty page story over this project but the main design failure is that the two competing companies that wanted the project and the running contract of the airport....eventually realized that it was worthless to compete, and instead....combined their efforts, and became the one and only company bidding. The shocker is....the city leadership then realized the game, and said 'no'....no one will get the contract.....the city itself will build the airport, and run it themselves. From that point on, it was a massive mess.
So today, it got brought up that a safety review was conducted in mid-April 2018, and BER has continuing risks.
The topic now is cable refurbishment, and being roughly 11 months behind. The TUV inspection (the German safety inspection folks) just said no.....they aren't anywhere near operating status. The report listed out "863 major deficiencies".
Another suggested opening period? No one says much.
Some folks had felt that by summer of 2019....they'd be open. I have my doubts that it'll be open in 2019, and this will stretch on into 2020.....requiring more cash infusion by the city, and pushing the debt a bit more.
Anyone going to prison over the mess? No, that's the odd thing.
Saturday, May 19, 2018
The Two Key Factors over the German Diesel Crisis
Cost and who pays. Yes, that's the simplicity and complexity of the diesel crisis facing Germany. ARD summed it up in a pretty decent article from last night.
First, what does a retrofit cost? The exact amount isn't quiet at a point where the manufacturing crowd can state for sure. From January....the Transport Ministry came to a ballpark figure of 3,000 Euro per car. This would have been the filter system for an older diesel (Euro five type).
With this figure, the thought by the experts is that it's not a huge price (when you consider the driving ban, the health hazard, and the termination of diesel).
So you take the fourteen million diesel cars, and multiply this (labor and parts) 3k Euro by it, and you come to 42-billion (more or less). I suspect the newer cars made in the past four years would have the numbers to avoid this mandated filter, and instead of fourteen million cars.....you might be talking about eight million cars or 24-billion Euro.
If the diesel car were over 15 years old? Well....the filter would cost as much as the car has in value....but that's just my humble opinion.
So you come to question two....who pays?
Some folks do believe that the government can force the car industry to pay for this. However, when you ask the same folks under which law it could be applied....they can't answer that. You then start to realize that a new law would have to be crafted out of thin air, and it would automatically be challenged in court. With the speed of German courts.....you could imagine two years to three years from start to finish.
Plan 'B'? No one says it in public but there's been some folks talking of an increased diesel tax (diesel is 15-cents cheaper than gas presently), and you'd make the owners pay for it themselves. It's a virtual guarantee whichever political party pushes on this....will be 'blasted' at the ballots on the next election. Hint: SPD.
The EU getting into middle of this and making it a more messy affair? There's a fifty percent chance or BETTER, that the EU will try to pass something that dooms the auto companies, and puts a number of things into jeopardy. Doing this a year ahead of the EU representative elections? Oh my....that would really interest the anti-EU political folks, and help change the dynamics of the EU after June of 2019.
If this were strictly a owner thing? I've sat and looked over the issue. If I owned such a car....I'd likely go and buy the 1,500-Euro natural gas kit and just convert my car over to natural gas. It'd help me make this decision if you offered three 500-Euro tax credits over a five-year period, which I could take when I needed it, and save on my taxes (making it my choice). Course, the gas-car crowd would be angry that I got a special deal, and it means someone else has to pay into the tax pot. Fairness? Well.....it's screwed up.
How big a topic is this in Germany? If you own a diesel car....it's now on your mind every single week, and frustrates the heck out of you. You have zero trade-in value on the car, and you might as well drive the car until it collapses. For the rest of German society.....it's way down on the list....maybe number fifty to one-hundred on your worry list.
First, what does a retrofit cost? The exact amount isn't quiet at a point where the manufacturing crowd can state for sure. From January....the Transport Ministry came to a ballpark figure of 3,000 Euro per car. This would have been the filter system for an older diesel (Euro five type).
With this figure, the thought by the experts is that it's not a huge price (when you consider the driving ban, the health hazard, and the termination of diesel).
So you take the fourteen million diesel cars, and multiply this (labor and parts) 3k Euro by it, and you come to 42-billion (more or less). I suspect the newer cars made in the past four years would have the numbers to avoid this mandated filter, and instead of fourteen million cars.....you might be talking about eight million cars or 24-billion Euro.
If the diesel car were over 15 years old? Well....the filter would cost as much as the car has in value....but that's just my humble opinion.
So you come to question two....who pays?
Some folks do believe that the government can force the car industry to pay for this. However, when you ask the same folks under which law it could be applied....they can't answer that. You then start to realize that a new law would have to be crafted out of thin air, and it would automatically be challenged in court. With the speed of German courts.....you could imagine two years to three years from start to finish.
Plan 'B'? No one says it in public but there's been some folks talking of an increased diesel tax (diesel is 15-cents cheaper than gas presently), and you'd make the owners pay for it themselves. It's a virtual guarantee whichever political party pushes on this....will be 'blasted' at the ballots on the next election. Hint: SPD.
The EU getting into middle of this and making it a more messy affair? There's a fifty percent chance or BETTER, that the EU will try to pass something that dooms the auto companies, and puts a number of things into jeopardy. Doing this a year ahead of the EU representative elections? Oh my....that would really interest the anti-EU political folks, and help change the dynamics of the EU after June of 2019.
If this were strictly a owner thing? I've sat and looked over the issue. If I owned such a car....I'd likely go and buy the 1,500-Euro natural gas kit and just convert my car over to natural gas. It'd help me make this decision if you offered three 500-Euro tax credits over a five-year period, which I could take when I needed it, and save on my taxes (making it my choice). Course, the gas-car crowd would be angry that I got a special deal, and it means someone else has to pay into the tax pot. Fairness? Well.....it's screwed up.
How big a topic is this in Germany? If you own a diesel car....it's now on your mind every single week, and frustrates the heck out of you. You have zero trade-in value on the car, and you might as well drive the car until it collapses. For the rest of German society.....it's way down on the list....maybe number fifty to one-hundred on your worry list.
The Next German National Election?
Focus (the news magazine) had a minor political piece today with serious implications.
The suggestion brought up by the Bremen Minister President....Carsten Sieling....to BILD....was that some SPD political folks are already talking about an exit to this Merkel coalition deal.....in two years, and force another election.
The odds of this happening? There's a fair amount of negativity existing within the SPD with the party leadership. I would give this a better than 50-percent chance of occurring.
The chief problem? Well....the SPD Party is sitting at 16-percent in terms of public popularity, and there is a fractured group of individuals. The youth element of the party, those under 25-years old....want a more aggressive and dominating party attitude (anti-Merkel). Then you have the pro-asylum and tax-distribution group. And then you have middle-class-working-class who feel left behind.
The timing in 2020? Bremen has a state election in May of 2020, which would normally be a positive election for the SPD. Hamburg has a state election in February of 2020, which would also be very positive normally for the SPD. And that's it for normal state elections for 2020.
My guess (if this was the strategy)....a coalition failure would really start to occur by mid-summer of 2019 (around the EU election in June of 2019). By August/September....it would be obvious. An announcement for the next election would then occur by January 2020....with the election likely in the month after the Bremen election. The SPD would rely upon really positive news out of the Bremen and Hamburg elections.
The colossal gamble? Well.....Sahra Wagenknecht of the Linke Paraty (the 'front' person of the party) is rumored to be thinking of creating her own political party out of thin air. Yeah, it does sound crazy.
To lay out the Wagenknecht issue....first....she's tried to hype the party VIP membership to have a more controlled approach to immigrants and migrants, and that has failed. Several of the top folks in the party are anti-Wagenknecht now.
Then you have Macron success where he built a party of disgruntled folks from various parties, and forged a whole new element....taking out the center-left and center-right strategies. Wagenknecht appears to want that type of situation.
The frustration element within the youth of the SPD? I don't think it would take much to convince them to sit down and pause over Wagenknecht's strategy and 'promises'.
Wagenknecht could walk out with half of the Linke Party voters, and take some different groups from the Greens and SPD. As silly as it might sound....I think she could get near nine-percent of the polling, and dragging the SPD down to around twelve-percent for national polling.
The CDU could absolutely win in such an election, but then you start to ask how you'd build a coalition with five minor parties, and any partnership would mandate a group of three (the CDU, with 'A' and 'B'). The miserability index for the person who follows Merkel for the leadership? The unhappy CDU voters who have to accept this watered-down government, in order to have a marginalized government?
So, settle back and enjoy the 'bumpy' ride to reach spring of 2020.
The suggestion brought up by the Bremen Minister President....Carsten Sieling....to BILD....was that some SPD political folks are already talking about an exit to this Merkel coalition deal.....in two years, and force another election.
The odds of this happening? There's a fair amount of negativity existing within the SPD with the party leadership. I would give this a better than 50-percent chance of occurring.
The chief problem? Well....the SPD Party is sitting at 16-percent in terms of public popularity, and there is a fractured group of individuals. The youth element of the party, those under 25-years old....want a more aggressive and dominating party attitude (anti-Merkel). Then you have the pro-asylum and tax-distribution group. And then you have middle-class-working-class who feel left behind.
The timing in 2020? Bremen has a state election in May of 2020, which would normally be a positive election for the SPD. Hamburg has a state election in February of 2020, which would also be very positive normally for the SPD. And that's it for normal state elections for 2020.
My guess (if this was the strategy)....a coalition failure would really start to occur by mid-summer of 2019 (around the EU election in June of 2019). By August/September....it would be obvious. An announcement for the next election would then occur by January 2020....with the election likely in the month after the Bremen election. The SPD would rely upon really positive news out of the Bremen and Hamburg elections.
The colossal gamble? Well.....Sahra Wagenknecht of the Linke Paraty (the 'front' person of the party) is rumored to be thinking of creating her own political party out of thin air. Yeah, it does sound crazy.
To lay out the Wagenknecht issue....first....she's tried to hype the party VIP membership to have a more controlled approach to immigrants and migrants, and that has failed. Several of the top folks in the party are anti-Wagenknecht now.
Then you have Macron success where he built a party of disgruntled folks from various parties, and forged a whole new element....taking out the center-left and center-right strategies. Wagenknecht appears to want that type of situation.
The frustration element within the youth of the SPD? I don't think it would take much to convince them to sit down and pause over Wagenknecht's strategy and 'promises'.
Wagenknecht could walk out with half of the Linke Party voters, and take some different groups from the Greens and SPD. As silly as it might sound....I think she could get near nine-percent of the polling, and dragging the SPD down to around twelve-percent for national polling.
The CDU could absolutely win in such an election, but then you start to ask how you'd build a coalition with five minor parties, and any partnership would mandate a group of three (the CDU, with 'A' and 'B'). The miserability index for the person who follows Merkel for the leadership? The unhappy CDU voters who have to accept this watered-down government, in order to have a marginalized government?
So, settle back and enjoy the 'bumpy' ride to reach spring of 2020.
Friday, May 18, 2018
Driving Difference Between the US and Germany
Most Americans who come over for a few years in Germany, will comment about the various challenges they faced, or the differences that they had to adjust to. This is my list of observations:
1. Round-abouts are probably the scariest thing that Germany has to offer to an American fresh in the road system. Make it a four-lane round-about, and it simply doubles in terms of fear.
2. The handbook you get to study for the testing phase.....has roughly 120 signs that you need to memorize to some degree....to pass the slightly-difficult test. To be honest, there's only eight signs that really matter for the rest of your life.
3. Don't drink alcohol and drive, period. If you do drink....limit it to one single drink over a two-hour period.
4. There are four-star intense rainstorms in Germany, and there are five-star intense rainstorms. It is absolutely important to drop down to 20 mph in these intense five-star storms.
5. In the summer period, there are various times that the autobahn asphalt will 'dip' and it'll scare the crap out of you when you hit one of these and rise three feet in the air as you exit one at 150 kph.
6. Measure your car width, and know it's number. There are autobahn repairs often underway, where the far left-side is extremely limited.
7. Pay the yearly fee for the ADAC (the German Automobile Club). You may only need them once every five years.....but that one occasion will be a lifesaver.
8. For the November to March period....if traveling outside of your normal range.....review the weather before departing. That means having snow-chains in the car, if necessary. That means possibility staying in some hotel overnight. Have a plan 'b'.
9. The heaviest traffic you can expect is on Saturdays (June-July-August), from 10 AM to 3 PM, on the autobahns. If you are near the borders of Germany on Sunday evening in the same period, around 6 PM....expect triple the normal amount of traffic.
10. Stau's (autobahn traffic jams) can occur, and last on up to several hours in the summer. If you don't have patience, pull off and find a secondary road, or have lunch.
1. Round-abouts are probably the scariest thing that Germany has to offer to an American fresh in the road system. Make it a four-lane round-about, and it simply doubles in terms of fear.
2. The handbook you get to study for the testing phase.....has roughly 120 signs that you need to memorize to some degree....to pass the slightly-difficult test. To be honest, there's only eight signs that really matter for the rest of your life.
3. Don't drink alcohol and drive, period. If you do drink....limit it to one single drink over a two-hour period.
4. There are four-star intense rainstorms in Germany, and there are five-star intense rainstorms. It is absolutely important to drop down to 20 mph in these intense five-star storms.
5. In the summer period, there are various times that the autobahn asphalt will 'dip' and it'll scare the crap out of you when you hit one of these and rise three feet in the air as you exit one at 150 kph.
6. Measure your car width, and know it's number. There are autobahn repairs often underway, where the far left-side is extremely limited.
7. Pay the yearly fee for the ADAC (the German Automobile Club). You may only need them once every five years.....but that one occasion will be a lifesaver.
8. For the November to March period....if traveling outside of your normal range.....review the weather before departing. That means having snow-chains in the car, if necessary. That means possibility staying in some hotel overnight. Have a plan 'b'.
9. The heaviest traffic you can expect is on Saturdays (June-July-August), from 10 AM to 3 PM, on the autobahns. If you are near the borders of Germany on Sunday evening in the same period, around 6 PM....expect triple the normal amount of traffic.
10. Stau's (autobahn traffic jams) can occur, and last on up to several hours in the summer. If you don't have patience, pull off and find a secondary road, or have lunch.
The Fasting Story
About two years ago, I essayed a piece and talked on the issue of Ramadan, the fasting business involved, and how I felt it would eventually come to effect German society. Well....it got brought up in the past ten days....via the Minister of Education down in Baden-Wurttemberg (Susanne Eisenmann).
She has sent a letter to the regional Muslim council (as noted by the local news in Stuttgart)....that the parents of kids need to pay attention to their kids. As she noted....even young Muslims are discussing fasting....while in elementary school. She's hoping to influence them to discourage the fasting while in school.
The general deal? You aren't supposed to drink any liquids from sun-up to sun-down (you can figure from roughly 5 AM to 9 PM. You can't eat during this period either.
As she notes....if some kid tries to fast and dehydrate themselves....then their ability to concentrate in the classroom is virtually non-existent.
I talked to an Iraqi back in 2014 over this whole thing, and as he noted.....from noon on.....nothing much happens in the Ramadan period because people are so tired and dehydrated.
If some 12-year-old kid attempts this? Just on dehydration, I suspect that a school would have to call for an ambulance at least once a day. Why even bother having kids in the school, if they are in a negative health situation?
The odd thing here is that you are nearing testing periods, and some of these kids are on the borderline of grades, and probably don't need any extra stress in their life. Adding some four-week period without food or liquids in the middle of a school day? The German system isn't built to handle this.
She has sent a letter to the regional Muslim council (as noted by the local news in Stuttgart)....that the parents of kids need to pay attention to their kids. As she noted....even young Muslims are discussing fasting....while in elementary school. She's hoping to influence them to discourage the fasting while in school.
The general deal? You aren't supposed to drink any liquids from sun-up to sun-down (you can figure from roughly 5 AM to 9 PM. You can't eat during this period either.
As she notes....if some kid tries to fast and dehydrate themselves....then their ability to concentrate in the classroom is virtually non-existent.
I talked to an Iraqi back in 2014 over this whole thing, and as he noted.....from noon on.....nothing much happens in the Ramadan period because people are so tired and dehydrated.
If some 12-year-old kid attempts this? Just on dehydration, I suspect that a school would have to call for an ambulance at least once a day. Why even bother having kids in the school, if they are in a negative health situation?
The odd thing here is that you are nearing testing periods, and some of these kids are on the borderline of grades, and probably don't need any extra stress in their life. Adding some four-week period without food or liquids in the middle of a school day? The German system isn't built to handle this.
Digestible Beer? No.
We had a court case resolved in Germany yesterday.....involving beer. The ARD (public TV, Channel One) reported the basic story.
Some brewery folks in Germany have been hyping in their advertising the term 'digestible' when it comes to beer.
Digestible typically involves food.....not drink.
The EU (yes, in their remarkable abilities) decided a fair time ago.....terms like digestible and wholesome....could NOT be used in beer being 1.2-percent or more by volume. So says the EU Health Claims Regulation for Alcoholic Beverages.
I know....a Brit would say that it's another case of the EU writing a regulation that probably is unnecessary.
The judges reviewed the evidence in this case. No one says if they had a beer or two (or three), but I would assume that you had to go and consider the evidence....probably in some local pub.
Their words....you cannot use the term digestible in advertising (not on TV, the internet or magazines) when talking about beer.
To be honest, most Germans would never think much or talk much over this claim of being digestible. In the past decade however, we've had more Germans become health-nuts and to them....it matters.
The end of the topic? You would think that, but in some garage....there's probably a German working on some health-positive beer concept, and this might come up again in court within five years.
Some brewery folks in Germany have been hyping in their advertising the term 'digestible' when it comes to beer.
Digestible typically involves food.....not drink.
The EU (yes, in their remarkable abilities) decided a fair time ago.....terms like digestible and wholesome....could NOT be used in beer being 1.2-percent or more by volume. So says the EU Health Claims Regulation for Alcoholic Beverages.
I know....a Brit would say that it's another case of the EU writing a regulation that probably is unnecessary.
The judges reviewed the evidence in this case. No one says if they had a beer or two (or three), but I would assume that you had to go and consider the evidence....probably in some local pub.
Their words....you cannot use the term digestible in advertising (not on TV, the internet or magazines) when talking about beer.
To be honest, most Germans would never think much or talk much over this claim of being digestible. In the past decade however, we've had more Germans become health-nuts and to them....it matters.
The end of the topic? You would think that, but in some garage....there's probably a German working on some health-positive beer concept, and this might come up again in court within five years.
Diesel Crisis Continues
I essayed the piece yesterday over the EU going to court against Germany over the diesel particulate episode.
One of the chief questions that the EU is asking.....why the Merkel cabinet isn't progressing in 'dramatic' results?
There are three major issues to this story, which the news journalists rarely touch upon or lay out for the general public.
First, with roughly fourteen million diesel cars on the road in Germany....this idea of the retrofit 'box' being developed, tested, approved and installed....has a fairly long path. No one in the government wants to really sign off the idea unless massive testing occurs, and it's proven to be a 'winner' (meaning it does what it's advertised to do). Then you get to the installation phase....which being realistic about this.....might take up to six months...maybe even twelve months. Then the topic of who pays....will come up. I did some basic calculations. If you take the estimated cost of this 'instrument', the paperwork involved, and the labor, then you can figure that it'll cost a minimum of 24-billion Euro. Consumers and owners paying? The government paying, via increased diesel taxes?
Second, if you finish all of this, and the air quality doesn't improve.....then you go and have the realization that it was trucks and buses that triggered the bulk of the air quality problem. Then what?
Third, a lot of this talk leads back to VW, and the odds that the EU will launch a case against them in court.....something that the Germans really don't want because of the disaster that could come.
Merkel and team (to include the SPD)....really need this issue to go away. But there is zero chance this topic will be resolved in 2018, or 2019.
One of the chief questions that the EU is asking.....why the Merkel cabinet isn't progressing in 'dramatic' results?
There are three major issues to this story, which the news journalists rarely touch upon or lay out for the general public.
First, with roughly fourteen million diesel cars on the road in Germany....this idea of the retrofit 'box' being developed, tested, approved and installed....has a fairly long path. No one in the government wants to really sign off the idea unless massive testing occurs, and it's proven to be a 'winner' (meaning it does what it's advertised to do). Then you get to the installation phase....which being realistic about this.....might take up to six months...maybe even twelve months. Then the topic of who pays....will come up. I did some basic calculations. If you take the estimated cost of this 'instrument', the paperwork involved, and the labor, then you can figure that it'll cost a minimum of 24-billion Euro. Consumers and owners paying? The government paying, via increased diesel taxes?
Second, if you finish all of this, and the air quality doesn't improve.....then you go and have the realization that it was trucks and buses that triggered the bulk of the air quality problem. Then what?
Third, a lot of this talk leads back to VW, and the odds that the EU will launch a case against them in court.....something that the Germans really don't want because of the disaster that could come.
Merkel and team (to include the SPD)....really need this issue to go away. But there is zero chance this topic will be resolved in 2018, or 2019.
Thursday, May 17, 2018
The EU-Germany Story
The Deutsche Welle folks laid out the basic story this afternoon, and it's a curious piece.
The EU said today that it will take Germany and five other member states of the EU into court for exceeding the EU air pollution standard. The problem? Diesel particles from particulate matter and and nitrogen dioxide.
So the curious side story? Well....German Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks, SPD Party, has been called to report to the EU, and there's some type of 'warning letter' involved. They apparently want Barbara to explain why she can't fix this.
What'll happen here? It's a pretty wild script. No one can say for sure.
So, if you do court action.....how long can this circulate via the EU courts? Two years.....maybe even longer.
The disciplinary device here? Basically, you could fine Germany....but would they pay the fine?
The fact that five other countries are now being called? It means that the standard set by the EU...might not be capable of being met, which some judges in the EU system might ask how the EU arrived at the magic numbers.
The power of the German Environmental Minister? Well....that's a curious side story as well. She can't really tell the cities in Germany what to do. Nor can she make that many demands on the sixteen German states.
The diesel mess? If Merkel had attached the government to the problem last year.....they would be seriously involved and a part of the 'solution'.....but oddly, she choose to stay outside of the mess and simply 'monitor' things (merkling is the term German kids would use.....meaning no leadership decision, just watching).
Does the EU even have power to dominate the individual states on this? No. It would mean that you'd disqualifty diesel vehicles entirely, and so far.....no one has really handed off that kind of authority to them.
Then you come to the final part of this story.....what if you did fine the Germans? Say one billion a month....would that really change much of anything except making the German public more and more anti-EU? Oh yeah.....and doing this type of action thirteen months before the EU representative election? Oh yeah.....that would help to motivate people against the EU.
The EU said today that it will take Germany and five other member states of the EU into court for exceeding the EU air pollution standard. The problem? Diesel particles from particulate matter and and nitrogen dioxide.
So the curious side story? Well....German Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks, SPD Party, has been called to report to the EU, and there's some type of 'warning letter' involved. They apparently want Barbara to explain why she can't fix this.
What'll happen here? It's a pretty wild script. No one can say for sure.
So, if you do court action.....how long can this circulate via the EU courts? Two years.....maybe even longer.
The disciplinary device here? Basically, you could fine Germany....but would they pay the fine?
The fact that five other countries are now being called? It means that the standard set by the EU...might not be capable of being met, which some judges in the EU system might ask how the EU arrived at the magic numbers.
The power of the German Environmental Minister? Well....that's a curious side story as well. She can't really tell the cities in Germany what to do. Nor can she make that many demands on the sixteen German states.
The diesel mess? If Merkel had attached the government to the problem last year.....they would be seriously involved and a part of the 'solution'.....but oddly, she choose to stay outside of the mess and simply 'monitor' things (merkling is the term German kids would use.....meaning no leadership decision, just watching).
Does the EU even have power to dominate the individual states on this? No. It would mean that you'd disqualifty diesel vehicles entirely, and so far.....no one has really handed off that kind of authority to them.
Then you come to the final part of this story.....what if you did fine the Germans? Say one billion a month....would that really change much of anything except making the German public more and more anti-EU? Oh yeah.....and doing this type of action thirteen months before the EU representative election? Oh yeah.....that would help to motivate people against the EU.
The 20-Billion Euro Story
Back in 2014, a small handful of Germans....observing the migration and asylum crisis....started to ask 'how much will this cost', and the German government more or less....just grinned, and avoided the answer.
By spring of 2017....the government could not really avoid answering the question, and the answer bothered a number of Germans.
So I noticed today that N-TV (commercial German news) picked up the topic and spoke to a government report being provided by the Federal Ministry of Finance....on asylum and integration costs.
The sum over the past year? 20.8 billion Euro.
What did it pay for? This gets into an interesting area.
The bulk of this (around 14-billion Euro) went to projects that would hinder or prevent mass asylum or flight. In other words....they paid 'gifts' to countries to stop smuggler operations or to encourage people to stay in their homeland. Some of it goes to developmental projects, educational reforms and improvements in various third-world countries.
The rest? 6.6-billion Euro? It's a package that goes to German states and is dispersed out to cities and counties to cover refugee, asylum-member, or immigrant programs. It pays for job training, German classes, shelters, failed-visa-folks to return to their homelands, social welfare, medical costs for the new folks, etc. It even pays for childcare or kindergarten costs.
Naturally, a German would look at this, and the anticipated 11-billion Euro a year that Germany will have to find for new EU taxes after BREXIT, the increased infrastructure costs, and the social welfare reform that likely has to come, then the German will ask how they can possibly pay for all of this?
The 20-billion going into this asylum situation? It could have covered the social welfare solution.
In a way, the current government has dug themselves into a pit....that requires a heck of a lot of money, and no real way to achieve the funding gap. Go talk about more taxation, and people just laugh....it won't happen. Go talk about taxing companies more and they hint they might move out of Germany because they can't compete if they raise their costs.
By spring of 2017....the government could not really avoid answering the question, and the answer bothered a number of Germans.
So I noticed today that N-TV (commercial German news) picked up the topic and spoke to a government report being provided by the Federal Ministry of Finance....on asylum and integration costs.
The sum over the past year? 20.8 billion Euro.
What did it pay for? This gets into an interesting area.
The bulk of this (around 14-billion Euro) went to projects that would hinder or prevent mass asylum or flight. In other words....they paid 'gifts' to countries to stop smuggler operations or to encourage people to stay in their homeland. Some of it goes to developmental projects, educational reforms and improvements in various third-world countries.
The rest? 6.6-billion Euro? It's a package that goes to German states and is dispersed out to cities and counties to cover refugee, asylum-member, or immigrant programs. It pays for job training, German classes, shelters, failed-visa-folks to return to their homelands, social welfare, medical costs for the new folks, etc. It even pays for childcare or kindergarten costs.
Naturally, a German would look at this, and the anticipated 11-billion Euro a year that Germany will have to find for new EU taxes after BREXIT, the increased infrastructure costs, and the social welfare reform that likely has to come, then the German will ask how they can possibly pay for all of this?
The 20-billion going into this asylum situation? It could have covered the social welfare solution.
In a way, the current government has dug themselves into a pit....that requires a heck of a lot of money, and no real way to achieve the funding gap. Go talk about more taxation, and people just laugh....it won't happen. Go talk about taxing companies more and they hint they might move out of Germany because they can't compete if they raise their costs.
Apartment Story
ARD (public TV, Channel One in Germany) did a short report this morning on statistical information coming out of the German government on construction of apartments in Germany.
It's a negative report....to be honest. For the first quarter of 2018....it's roughly 1.7-percent fewer apartments being approved for construction (against 2017 first quarter numbers).
The national Federal Statistical Office put the number at 77,800 apartments approved for the first quarter.....with 1,300 permits issued.
Trying to explain it?
I would go with three basic reasons for the slow-down.
First, just about every construction company now complains over the regulation problems involved in getting permits, and the process....compared to twenty years ago....frustrates the motivated folks a good bit. You are better off in dealing with the city government of 25,000, than the city government of 300,000 or more.
Second, most companies will hint that finding qualified construction manpower is now a problem. You can interpret this in various ways. Some are looking for the cheapest labor possible....meaning occasionally some illegal folks being on the site. Some are suggesting that find qualified German electricians and plumbers are an issue now, and when you do find them....they've got a schedule and delays built into the process. I noticed in Wiesbaden last year.....a project was underway, and they'd put some container apartments on the construction site, and had twenty-odd Romanians living there as the crew.
Third, city council groups are under some pressure to contain building expansions. The public and neighborhood groups are capable of putting voting pressure into the 'game'. If you go back thirty years ago.....unhindered growth was possible. Today? No....there's various environmental groups which make the process more complicated.
Where does this leave future apartment projects? I think satellite towns (10 to 20 miles outside of urban areas) are the ones who will get more apartment projects. This means some kind of mass transit growth will have to be part of the future planning process.
It's a negative report....to be honest. For the first quarter of 2018....it's roughly 1.7-percent fewer apartments being approved for construction (against 2017 first quarter numbers).
The national Federal Statistical Office put the number at 77,800 apartments approved for the first quarter.....with 1,300 permits issued.
Trying to explain it?
I would go with three basic reasons for the slow-down.
First, just about every construction company now complains over the regulation problems involved in getting permits, and the process....compared to twenty years ago....frustrates the motivated folks a good bit. You are better off in dealing with the city government of 25,000, than the city government of 300,000 or more.
Second, most companies will hint that finding qualified construction manpower is now a problem. You can interpret this in various ways. Some are looking for the cheapest labor possible....meaning occasionally some illegal folks being on the site. Some are suggesting that find qualified German electricians and plumbers are an issue now, and when you do find them....they've got a schedule and delays built into the process. I noticed in Wiesbaden last year.....a project was underway, and they'd put some container apartments on the construction site, and had twenty-odd Romanians living there as the crew.
Third, city council groups are under some pressure to contain building expansions. The public and neighborhood groups are capable of putting voting pressure into the 'game'. If you go back thirty years ago.....unhindered growth was possible. Today? No....there's various environmental groups which make the process more complicated.
Where does this leave future apartment projects? I think satellite towns (10 to 20 miles outside of urban areas) are the ones who will get more apartment projects. This means some kind of mass transit growth will have to be part of the future planning process.
Germany and Public TV Offerings
I essayed this piece originally in early April 2016, and thought I could improve it......the topic? Public TV offerings in Germany and my observations of them.
Most Germans have an opinion about their public TV options. Probably ten-percent of the public will tell you that it's all crap, and they tend to avoid TV. If you got into some discussion with the younger generation....they will tell you that public TV is dismal and unwatchable, while commercial TV is somewhat limited in terms of value. It's a mixed bag, depending on who you bring this topic up with.
I will admit that the public TV crowd (ZDF and ARD) are the primary delivery vehicles for culture, opera, classical story movies, political talk, documentary pieces over the land and environment, and public discussions. The answer from non-intellectual would go along the lines of attacking the massive nature of the public TV empire, dumping on high-cost sports contracts, and noting the declining audience rates (especially among the 15-to-30 year old age group).
The general make-up of the public TV options?
1. Das Erste (Channel One) ARD. The be-all-do-all network. Based out of Hamburg, they run a varied operation with sports, news, political chat, public-production and some viewing rights to foreign TV movies (mostly murder-cop or romance-theme). Their motto is "We are one." The budget for this network is to around 6.5 billion Euro. Presently, they employ 20,000 people across Germany. If you were looking for a network run by Star Trek's Borg....this would be it. Whatever they do....it can only be right or logical in their mind.
2. Tagesschau24. This is a public TV organization under the ARD umbrella, and it's attempt to be like CNN, but certainly NOT run 24 hours a day live. I admit....a fair portion is taped and simply repeated. It's dumped via satellite, digital and via data-streaming over the internet. No one says much over viewership and I'd personally have doubt that there's ever more than 20,000 Germans out of eighty-two million residents watching the network on a daily basis. I should note as well....two commercially-run news organizations are in direct competition with this network.
3. ONE (it used to be EinsFestival and was renamed/rebranded). They are established in Koln. They run mostly documentary pieces, news magazine formats, rock and pop concerts (taped), and cult-classic films. Oddly, just about everything they run.....came from one of the other networks connected to ARD. So, it's a repeat network....for better or worse. No one can clearly say what the audience make-up of the network is made up of.
4. EinsPlus. Originally in the late 1990s....this was EinsMuXx. Yeah....it was a catchy title. They are based out of Stuttgart, and mostly started up and run by SWR (a regional network for the southern part of Germany). Some Germans will say that it started out as a counselor and service network....living good lifestyles, wellness, medical topics, diet, focus on positive living, etc. For some reason, no one really caught onto the network. In 2009, they shifted the network to education and science programming. For some reason, no one really caught onto viewing with that slant. Around six years ago, they shifted to pub bands, young-programming which involved back-packer trips, reality focused documentary pieces, and a slant toward the 20-to-30 year old group. So far, no one says much about viewership. On a typical Saturday night....I'd have doubts that they have more than 200,000 viewers out of eighty-two million.
5. BR. Bayerischer Rundfunk. It's a Bavarian-state operation....which features some hand-me-down documentary pieces from ARD, and a number of shows or documentaries from the Bavarian state itself. No matter where you live in Germany....you can get BR. Interest beyond the Bavarian border? No one has ever done a poll to show who watches the network as far as I know. The one positive is that they do feature a nightly news piece on Bavaria news, which the local might appreciate. They also cover political topics that get hyped up in the region.
6. ZDF. Channel Two. Really to be called the sister network of ARD. Based out of Mainz. They have 3600 employees. They run a pretty wide array of programming: sports, news, documentary pieces, game-shows, movies, a handful of TV shows made for state-run TV, culture, science, education-pieces, religion and current-events updates. Embedded journalism gets uttered a fair amount around ZDF, with various reporters noted for slanted views. It's a recent trend....some will say this goes back over decades.
There is this odd history piece to ZDF, that most Germans don't realize. After creating the first network (ARD)....at some point in the late 1950s, the German government began to realize the independence that they gave ARD....was a very liberal vehicle, and frankly....turning into a Frankenstein-like network. So, Channel Two was created, with state-federal money and was to be totally outside the control of the ARD board of governors. After creation....ARD and the board took the matter to court, and the judges admitted....yeah, there is a constitutional limit and Channel Two could not exist.
Then the court did this odd step.....Channel Two could continue on but it had to be managed by Channel One. So all this effort to correct the behavior trend of Channel One....simply made Channel Two into a second Frankenstein as well.
7. ZDF-Info. It's a news documentary channel which carries taped pieces that are produced by the ZDF crew or they get via other non-German networks. News magazines are one of their top productions. If you were looking for 'slant' in German journalism....settle back over a week and watch ten hours of their production.
8. ZDF-Kulture (dead as we know it). This 'creature' was created to give just about everything possible within the world of culture....Belly-dancing, French food, the tango, etc. As you can imagine, it was highly endorsed by intellectuals across Germany. There are probably ten-million Germans around today who will admit that they've never watched a single minute of the network in the 2011 to 2016 period that it survived. It's market-share at the peak? .4-percent.
So as ZDF-Kulture came to be questioned.....massive pressure existed upon ARD and the governors to find and create a network for young people (14 to 29 years old). They decided that ZDF-Kulture was 'dead-enough' that they'd just take the framework, and rebuild it into FUNK.
FUNK? Well....it's supposed to be youth-orientated. You can't get it via cable or satellite. You can only get it by downstreaming it off the internet.
The budget with FUNK? Roughly 45-million Euro. The criticism of FUNK? Early on, some folks said it was tasteless and without 'respect'. Then some folks said that this was the desire of the crowd watching it....that they didn't want the 'crap' that ZDF and ARD pumped out.
I've probably watched a dozen hours of FUNK and would say that it's like you went to a dozen teenagers to suggest they produce their own material and standard....then that's the general outcome of most of FUNK's shows. They have featured Doctor Who, and continually talk about ideas for a science fiction series (but way out of their budget). Viewership? Total unknown.
9. ZDF-Neo. Based out of Mainz. Neo was supposed to be this network which would bring the 25-to-40 year old group back to German public-run TV. It was going to be a mixture of reality TV, documentaries, interviews, late-night entertainment, cheaply produced but seemingly real soap operas, US TV shows, US movies, and anything that younger adults enjoyed. Their market-share is .6-percent. Older American TV shows like Hart to Hart even played for a while....to attract oddball viewers. On some rare occasions, they've found hot non-German productions which pumped their market-share to 1.6....but those success stories are few and far between.
10. 3Sat. It's a network which has programming from German, Austrian and Swiss public TV. It's been around for thirty years. It's programming circles primarily around culture and magazine-format news pieces. Market-share is around 1.5-percent. They will feature a number of satire and humor shows, which makes them slightly different from most. But most of what they run....are repeats or reruns from the major networks.
11. KiKa. Kid's network for kids between three and ten. Market share is near 1.2 percent. They got noticed by everyone in 2014 when they ran this piece designed for the 10-to-12 year old age group....called Tahsin's Circumcision Ceremony....featuring some Turkish kid (age 10) who was going through the man-process, and well....circumcision was required. Needless to say....a lot of folks have asked stupid questions and there's some suspicion that KiKa is some network with a slant to it. Most German kids by age six will dump KiKa and demand to watch commercially run TV options with Japanese Anime cartoons (at least they do real-but-fake sword-play instead of that circumcision stuff).
12. Phoenix. It's basically a network dedicated to great works of political individuals in Berlin and to explain what's going on in the Bundestag on a daily basis. CSPAN? Well....yeah, it's their version of that US network. Market-share is roughly 1-percent. You could walk into a pub with a hundred Germans and ninety of them would admit that they've never watched the network...ever. Intellectuals will brag about the great use of Phoenix in introducing topics of national concern to the public.
13. ARTE. It's a network with a relationship to French state-run TV, along with several other European countries. Most of the programming is documentary pieces or artistic movies. Their market-share is 1-percent. Real intellectual-types.....watch ARTE nightly.
14. ARD-Alpha. It's the German educational channel. Science, religion, culture, language, art, music, philosophy, etc. There are various awards given for different shows on the network, but if you asked the typical one hundred Germans about it.....more than 90-percent would admit that they've never watched it. How do you get awards, with almost no one watching? Think about for a while.
15. HR. Hessicher Rundfunk. It's the Hessen regional public network. They feature a lot of local documentary or travel pieces about the state, along with news for thirty minutes every night. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
16. Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk (MDR). Leipzig-based network for central Germany (three states). They've been around since 1991 and are a product of the wall coming down and the regional old network for DDR folding into this operation. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
17. NDR. Fernsehen Norddeutscher Rundfunk. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
18. RB. Radio Bremen. The smallest of all state-run media operations. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
19. RBB. Rundfunk Berlin-Brandenburg (RBB). This is what formed from the old East German Brandenburg network and the West Berlin network. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
20. SR. Saarland TV and radio. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
21. SWR. Runs for the Rhineland Pfalz and Baden-Wurttemburg region. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
22. WDR. Mostly for the northwest of Germany. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
From my prospective....public-run TV is latched on and can't be modified because it's the only method that intellectual crowd of Germany can get their dose of A, B, and C (whatever they are, take your guess).
Sadly, it means you have to pay for it via some taxation device. Without any competition from the commercial world in the 1960s or 1970s....they could dictate whatever they desired. In the 1980s....competition finally arrived. Presently, it's hard to find a twenty-year old who will admit that they watch more than three hours a month from the public-run offerings. Downloadable programs via Netflix are catching on and will only increase in the future.
Taking down the tax via the court system? In recent years, that's been proven to be just about impossible. Other than a state-initiative or ballot measure to take individual state networks away from ARD and ZDF....are about the only methods left, unless the Bundestag really changes it's membership or faces a hostile public. The most dramatic change that could be forced down upon public-run TV by it's governing board? If they ever suggested no more MEGA contracts for sports.....it's have a dramatic affect overnight. The whole sports agenda for public-run TV would dissolve to strictly winter-sports and 2nd league soccer games.
So, as an American....if you happen to be in the midst of a pub discussion where Hans or Martin are whining away about public-run TV in Germany.....give them some space because they need someone to hurl their insults against. No one else will listen.
Myself? In a normal month, I probably watch around thirty hours of public-run TV. An occasional Sunday night Tatort (cop-thriller movie), the nightly news at 8PM (fifteen minutes of real or slanted news), and once in a while a worthwhile debate on current events, immigration, or German business practices. On Wednesday nights, if you watch HR....they have MEX which is a forty-five minute magazine on groceries, cost of items, complaints about the cost of things, and anything related to the economy. Oddly, MEX is probably several times more effective than the US version of Sixty Minutes has become. The negative to MEX is that 20-percent of each episode is some repeat item from four to six months ago, and they do these over and over, and over.
Most Germans have an opinion about their public TV options. Probably ten-percent of the public will tell you that it's all crap, and they tend to avoid TV. If you got into some discussion with the younger generation....they will tell you that public TV is dismal and unwatchable, while commercial TV is somewhat limited in terms of value. It's a mixed bag, depending on who you bring this topic up with.
I will admit that the public TV crowd (ZDF and ARD) are the primary delivery vehicles for culture, opera, classical story movies, political talk, documentary pieces over the land and environment, and public discussions. The answer from non-intellectual would go along the lines of attacking the massive nature of the public TV empire, dumping on high-cost sports contracts, and noting the declining audience rates (especially among the 15-to-30 year old age group).
The general make-up of the public TV options?
1. Das Erste (Channel One) ARD. The be-all-do-all network. Based out of Hamburg, they run a varied operation with sports, news, political chat, public-production and some viewing rights to foreign TV movies (mostly murder-cop or romance-theme). Their motto is "We are one." The budget for this network is to around 6.5 billion Euro. Presently, they employ 20,000 people across Germany. If you were looking for a network run by Star Trek's Borg....this would be it. Whatever they do....it can only be right or logical in their mind.
2. Tagesschau24. This is a public TV organization under the ARD umbrella, and it's attempt to be like CNN, but certainly NOT run 24 hours a day live. I admit....a fair portion is taped and simply repeated. It's dumped via satellite, digital and via data-streaming over the internet. No one says much over viewership and I'd personally have doubt that there's ever more than 20,000 Germans out of eighty-two million residents watching the network on a daily basis. I should note as well....two commercially-run news organizations are in direct competition with this network.
3. ONE (it used to be EinsFestival and was renamed/rebranded). They are established in Koln. They run mostly documentary pieces, news magazine formats, rock and pop concerts (taped), and cult-classic films. Oddly, just about everything they run.....came from one of the other networks connected to ARD. So, it's a repeat network....for better or worse. No one can clearly say what the audience make-up of the network is made up of.
4. EinsPlus. Originally in the late 1990s....this was EinsMuXx. Yeah....it was a catchy title. They are based out of Stuttgart, and mostly started up and run by SWR (a regional network for the southern part of Germany). Some Germans will say that it started out as a counselor and service network....living good lifestyles, wellness, medical topics, diet, focus on positive living, etc. For some reason, no one really caught onto the network. In 2009, they shifted the network to education and science programming. For some reason, no one really caught onto viewing with that slant. Around six years ago, they shifted to pub bands, young-programming which involved back-packer trips, reality focused documentary pieces, and a slant toward the 20-to-30 year old group. So far, no one says much about viewership. On a typical Saturday night....I'd have doubts that they have more than 200,000 viewers out of eighty-two million.
5. BR. Bayerischer Rundfunk. It's a Bavarian-state operation....which features some hand-me-down documentary pieces from ARD, and a number of shows or documentaries from the Bavarian state itself. No matter where you live in Germany....you can get BR. Interest beyond the Bavarian border? No one has ever done a poll to show who watches the network as far as I know. The one positive is that they do feature a nightly news piece on Bavaria news, which the local might appreciate. They also cover political topics that get hyped up in the region.
6. ZDF. Channel Two. Really to be called the sister network of ARD. Based out of Mainz. They have 3600 employees. They run a pretty wide array of programming: sports, news, documentary pieces, game-shows, movies, a handful of TV shows made for state-run TV, culture, science, education-pieces, religion and current-events updates. Embedded journalism gets uttered a fair amount around ZDF, with various reporters noted for slanted views. It's a recent trend....some will say this goes back over decades.
There is this odd history piece to ZDF, that most Germans don't realize. After creating the first network (ARD)....at some point in the late 1950s, the German government began to realize the independence that they gave ARD....was a very liberal vehicle, and frankly....turning into a Frankenstein-like network. So, Channel Two was created, with state-federal money and was to be totally outside the control of the ARD board of governors. After creation....ARD and the board took the matter to court, and the judges admitted....yeah, there is a constitutional limit and Channel Two could not exist.
Then the court did this odd step.....Channel Two could continue on but it had to be managed by Channel One. So all this effort to correct the behavior trend of Channel One....simply made Channel Two into a second Frankenstein as well.
7. ZDF-Info. It's a news documentary channel which carries taped pieces that are produced by the ZDF crew or they get via other non-German networks. News magazines are one of their top productions. If you were looking for 'slant' in German journalism....settle back over a week and watch ten hours of their production.
8. ZDF-Kulture (dead as we know it). This 'creature' was created to give just about everything possible within the world of culture....Belly-dancing, French food, the tango, etc. As you can imagine, it was highly endorsed by intellectuals across Germany. There are probably ten-million Germans around today who will admit that they've never watched a single minute of the network in the 2011 to 2016 period that it survived. It's market-share at the peak? .4-percent.
So as ZDF-Kulture came to be questioned.....massive pressure existed upon ARD and the governors to find and create a network for young people (14 to 29 years old). They decided that ZDF-Kulture was 'dead-enough' that they'd just take the framework, and rebuild it into FUNK.
FUNK? Well....it's supposed to be youth-orientated. You can't get it via cable or satellite. You can only get it by downstreaming it off the internet.
The budget with FUNK? Roughly 45-million Euro. The criticism of FUNK? Early on, some folks said it was tasteless and without 'respect'. Then some folks said that this was the desire of the crowd watching it....that they didn't want the 'crap' that ZDF and ARD pumped out.
I've probably watched a dozen hours of FUNK and would say that it's like you went to a dozen teenagers to suggest they produce their own material and standard....then that's the general outcome of most of FUNK's shows. They have featured Doctor Who, and continually talk about ideas for a science fiction series (but way out of their budget). Viewership? Total unknown.
9. ZDF-Neo. Based out of Mainz. Neo was supposed to be this network which would bring the 25-to-40 year old group back to German public-run TV. It was going to be a mixture of reality TV, documentaries, interviews, late-night entertainment, cheaply produced but seemingly real soap operas, US TV shows, US movies, and anything that younger adults enjoyed. Their market-share is .6-percent. Older American TV shows like Hart to Hart even played for a while....to attract oddball viewers. On some rare occasions, they've found hot non-German productions which pumped their market-share to 1.6....but those success stories are few and far between.
10. 3Sat. It's a network which has programming from German, Austrian and Swiss public TV. It's been around for thirty years. It's programming circles primarily around culture and magazine-format news pieces. Market-share is around 1.5-percent. They will feature a number of satire and humor shows, which makes them slightly different from most. But most of what they run....are repeats or reruns from the major networks.
11. KiKa. Kid's network for kids between three and ten. Market share is near 1.2 percent. They got noticed by everyone in 2014 when they ran this piece designed for the 10-to-12 year old age group....called Tahsin's Circumcision Ceremony....featuring some Turkish kid (age 10) who was going through the man-process, and well....circumcision was required. Needless to say....a lot of folks have asked stupid questions and there's some suspicion that KiKa is some network with a slant to it. Most German kids by age six will dump KiKa and demand to watch commercially run TV options with Japanese Anime cartoons (at least they do real-but-fake sword-play instead of that circumcision stuff).
12. Phoenix. It's basically a network dedicated to great works of political individuals in Berlin and to explain what's going on in the Bundestag on a daily basis. CSPAN? Well....yeah, it's their version of that US network. Market-share is roughly 1-percent. You could walk into a pub with a hundred Germans and ninety of them would admit that they've never watched the network...ever. Intellectuals will brag about the great use of Phoenix in introducing topics of national concern to the public.
13. ARTE. It's a network with a relationship to French state-run TV, along with several other European countries. Most of the programming is documentary pieces or artistic movies. Their market-share is 1-percent. Real intellectual-types.....watch ARTE nightly.
14. ARD-Alpha. It's the German educational channel. Science, religion, culture, language, art, music, philosophy, etc. There are various awards given for different shows on the network, but if you asked the typical one hundred Germans about it.....more than 90-percent would admit that they've never watched it. How do you get awards, with almost no one watching? Think about for a while.
15. HR. Hessicher Rundfunk. It's the Hessen regional public network. They feature a lot of local documentary or travel pieces about the state, along with news for thirty minutes every night. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
16. Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk (MDR). Leipzig-based network for central Germany (three states). They've been around since 1991 and are a product of the wall coming down and the regional old network for DDR folding into this operation. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
17. NDR. Fernsehen Norddeutscher Rundfunk. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
18. RB. Radio Bremen. The smallest of all state-run media operations. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
19. RBB. Rundfunk Berlin-Brandenburg (RBB). This is what formed from the old East German Brandenburg network and the West Berlin network. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
20. SR. Saarland TV and radio. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
21. SWR. Runs for the Rhineland Pfalz and Baden-Wurttemburg region. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
22. WDR. Mostly for the northwest of Germany. Their material is mostly hand-me-down programming from ZDF and ARD.
From my prospective....public-run TV is latched on and can't be modified because it's the only method that intellectual crowd of Germany can get their dose of A, B, and C (whatever they are, take your guess).
Sadly, it means you have to pay for it via some taxation device. Without any competition from the commercial world in the 1960s or 1970s....they could dictate whatever they desired. In the 1980s....competition finally arrived. Presently, it's hard to find a twenty-year old who will admit that they watch more than three hours a month from the public-run offerings. Downloadable programs via Netflix are catching on and will only increase in the future.
Taking down the tax via the court system? In recent years, that's been proven to be just about impossible. Other than a state-initiative or ballot measure to take individual state networks away from ARD and ZDF....are about the only methods left, unless the Bundestag really changes it's membership or faces a hostile public. The most dramatic change that could be forced down upon public-run TV by it's governing board? If they ever suggested no more MEGA contracts for sports.....it's have a dramatic affect overnight. The whole sports agenda for public-run TV would dissolve to strictly winter-sports and 2nd league soccer games.
So, as an American....if you happen to be in the midst of a pub discussion where Hans or Martin are whining away about public-run TV in Germany.....give them some space because they need someone to hurl their insults against. No one else will listen.
Myself? In a normal month, I probably watch around thirty hours of public-run TV. An occasional Sunday night Tatort (cop-thriller movie), the nightly news at 8PM (fifteen minutes of real or slanted news), and once in a while a worthwhile debate on current events, immigration, or German business practices. On Wednesday nights, if you watch HR....they have MEX which is a forty-five minute magazine on groceries, cost of items, complaints about the cost of things, and anything related to the economy. Oddly, MEX is probably several times more effective than the US version of Sixty Minutes has become. The negative to MEX is that 20-percent of each episode is some repeat item from four to six months ago, and they do these over and over, and over.
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