Polling over the past two years for the German political landscape shows one remarkable thing unfolding. SPD voters are pausing and reflecting over the future, and they seem to be leaving the SPD voter pattern.
Presently, the SPD has slipped enough to be around 18-percent. Remember, this was the political party that took 38-percent of the national vote in the 2005 national election. Over half of their voters have walked away since then.
Where'd they go? Well....mostly to the Green Party. The Greens today are pulling around the 13-to-14 percent level....a fair level from the 5.4-percent that they had in 2005.
If you go into Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg (both southern states of Germany)....the SPD has lost a fair amount of favor while the Greens have made bold gains.
So, where does this go for the next decade? I would suggest that the SPD will level out at some point near 10-percent. The Greens, in my humble view, will likely rise up to the 22-percent level. A lot of this has to do with regional emphasis, and attraction to young people.....which the SPD doesn't seem to be having much luck.
A big deal? If you had suggested back in 1985....this type of gain for the Greens.....people would have laughed. Yet here we are.
Monday, July 30, 2018
The German-Greek Loan Deal
It's not a topic that the German government really wanted to chat on....but some business newspaper journalists (from FAZ) got the numbers and added up the German loan to Greece and the impact. The story is told by Deutsche Welle.
The loan deal? 34-billion Euro (in the range of 40-billion US dollars).
FAZ had analysts pouring over the info which they finally got from the German government (forced via a parliamentary question from one of the opposition parties).
What FAZ says....is...."the volume of additional interest rate deferments over 10 years depends on actual interest rate conditions and is currently estimated by the federal finance ministry to be around €34 billion."
It's a fair sum of money and I doubt if the common regular guy on the street realizes the impact of this 'loan'.
If Greece fails? The Germans will just wipe the money from existence and just suggest that it was the price they had to pay. I'm not sure that the regular working-class guy would agree with that logic.
The loan deal? 34-billion Euro (in the range of 40-billion US dollars).
FAZ had analysts pouring over the info which they finally got from the German government (forced via a parliamentary question from one of the opposition parties).
What FAZ says....is...."the volume of additional interest rate deferments over 10 years depends on actual interest rate conditions and is currently estimated by the federal finance ministry to be around €34 billion."
It's a fair sum of money and I doubt if the common regular guy on the street realizes the impact of this 'loan'.
If Greece fails? The Germans will just wipe the money from existence and just suggest that it was the price they had to pay. I'm not sure that the regular working-class guy would agree with that logic.
KITA Story
I sat and watched a segment of news off N-TV (commercial German news) this morning. The topic? KITA being free in Berlin.
KITA is the German public child-care service which is in most cities and towns. In most cities of Germany, there is a cost factor, with the city or state covering some portion, and you the parent paying the rest.
In Berlin, the political apparatus has gone to the extent of fully funding KITA. For parents, it's a great deal. In a normal situation, you could figure a minimum of 100 Euro a month, on upwards to 200 Euro. Imagine some couple with two kids in the system.
So naturally, you'd be asking how they afford to pay this entirely? Well....the public doesn't ask these questions but on down the line....there's something which they aren't funding anymore. Maybe less landscaping in city parks....maybe increased dog license fees....maybe more car parking fees. You just don't know this angle of the deal.
Naturally, folks are hyped up and they want all KITAs across the nation to be 'free'. The political dynamic to this? At some point, folks will wake up and wonder about the services cut and if this doesn't eventually lead back to higher taxation. But, that's five years on down the line.
KITA is the German public child-care service which is in most cities and towns. In most cities of Germany, there is a cost factor, with the city or state covering some portion, and you the parent paying the rest.
In Berlin, the political apparatus has gone to the extent of fully funding KITA. For parents, it's a great deal. In a normal situation, you could figure a minimum of 100 Euro a month, on upwards to 200 Euro. Imagine some couple with two kids in the system.
So naturally, you'd be asking how they afford to pay this entirely? Well....the public doesn't ask these questions but on down the line....there's something which they aren't funding anymore. Maybe less landscaping in city parks....maybe increased dog license fees....maybe more car parking fees. You just don't know this angle of the deal.
Naturally, folks are hyped up and they want all KITAs across the nation to be 'free'. The political dynamic to this? At some point, folks will wake up and wonder about the services cut and if this doesn't eventually lead back to higher taxation. But, that's five years on down the line.
Sunday, July 29, 2018
Potatoes Problem
It's a page-two story that most Germans will miss, but N-TV (commercial German news network) carried it today.
Most of you who've spent some time in Germany via the military....know that the main staple of German diet, after pork.....are French fries (pommes).
Because of the ongoing drought here in Germany, there's now a worry by the potato processing industry. They suggest that only 40-percent of the normal potatoes produced will be delivered. The word 'dramatic'? It comes up now in conversation.
There are three major regions of Germany which produces the normal crop.....Bavaria, Lower Saxony, and North Rhineland Westphalia.
Imports likely? I would go and suggest that the major suppliers are now going out into the rest of the EU and looking for other producers.
A major problem? Probably not.....but I would expect just everything related to potatoes to go up 10-to-20 percent minimum over the next year.
Most of you who've spent some time in Germany via the military....know that the main staple of German diet, after pork.....are French fries (pommes).
Because of the ongoing drought here in Germany, there's now a worry by the potato processing industry. They suggest that only 40-percent of the normal potatoes produced will be delivered. The word 'dramatic'? It comes up now in conversation.
There are three major regions of Germany which produces the normal crop.....Bavaria, Lower Saxony, and North Rhineland Westphalia.
Imports likely? I would go and suggest that the major suppliers are now going out into the rest of the EU and looking for other producers.
A major problem? Probably not.....but I would expect just everything related to potatoes to go up 10-to-20 percent minimum over the next year.
The 126,000 Missing People
I was glancing through the German newspaper 'Welt am Sonntag' newspaper this morning.
The journalists with the paper say that the German cops are looking for almost 300,000 people in Germany to arrest.
The stat's? They come out of the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA). We aren't talking local small-time criminals.....these are folks on the federal listing to be arrested. The curious thing about this 300,000 group....is that roughly 40-percent of them (126,000) are foreigners (non-Germans).
Do they split the group into nationalities? No....that's a curious thing. They left the groupings out of this story. The charges of the 300,000 or the 126,000? Unknown....that's also left out of the story. Did they already leave the country? Unknown.
German journalists often sit there and tell you a somewhat interesting story but then they reach some stage where the story just stops and you wonder about the rest of it.
The journalists with the paper say that the German cops are looking for almost 300,000 people in Germany to arrest.
The stat's? They come out of the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA). We aren't talking local small-time criminals.....these are folks on the federal listing to be arrested. The curious thing about this 300,000 group....is that roughly 40-percent of them (126,000) are foreigners (non-Germans).
Do they split the group into nationalities? No....that's a curious thing. They left the groupings out of this story. The charges of the 300,000 or the 126,000? Unknown....that's also left out of the story. Did they already leave the country? Unknown.
German journalists often sit there and tell you a somewhat interesting story but then they reach some stage where the story just stops and you wonder about the rest of it.
Train Story
There's a short 10-line story over at N-TV (German commercial news network) that concerns the railway folks.....Deutsche Bahn.
There's this discussion going on about upping the current top speed of certain ICE (the high speed inner-city railway service) from 250 kph to 265 kph (164 miles per hour).
Why the discussion? Well....between construction work and heavy thunderstorms in May/June....trying to keep on schedule is now a problem (right now, they are managing to keep on schedule for 77-percent of the ICE train schedules). The general goal is a minimum of 80-percent. Their definition statement of 'on-time'? Well....as long as you arrive within six minutes of the scheduled time....you are 'on-time'.
As for the 265 kph idea? The route and condition of the track will be the defining factor in this examination. My humble guess is that the first time you have some derailment.....the speed will be immediately lowered. Course, it might take five years to reach that one incident.
Back in the late 70's when I was first introduced to railway service in Germany, with the old style trains.....you were pretty lucky if the train topped out at 120 kph. So it is a unique experience to get on an ICE-train and travel at 250 kph.
There's this discussion going on about upping the current top speed of certain ICE (the high speed inner-city railway service) from 250 kph to 265 kph (164 miles per hour).
Why the discussion? Well....between construction work and heavy thunderstorms in May/June....trying to keep on schedule is now a problem (right now, they are managing to keep on schedule for 77-percent of the ICE train schedules). The general goal is a minimum of 80-percent. Their definition statement of 'on-time'? Well....as long as you arrive within six minutes of the scheduled time....you are 'on-time'.
As for the 265 kph idea? The route and condition of the track will be the defining factor in this examination. My humble guess is that the first time you have some derailment.....the speed will be immediately lowered. Course, it might take five years to reach that one incident.
Back in the late 70's when I was first introduced to railway service in Germany, with the old style trains.....you were pretty lucky if the train topped out at 120 kph. So it is a unique experience to get on an ICE-train and travel at 250 kph.
A Soccer Story
It's not front-page news, and I doubt if more than one-percent of Germans have heard of the story. Blick (the Swiss news source) reports the basis of the story.
So a couple of years ago.....down in Zwickau (about half-way between Frankfurt and Dresden....over into the eastern chunk of Germany)....they started up a annual soccer tournament made up of migrant teams. This year would have been year seven of the idea.
This past week, the game came up between a mostly all Middle-Eastern group of guys, against a team of mostly all African guys. As the kick-off started.....a massive brawl started up.
The spectators were a bit shocked, and kinda left quickly from the field area. Serious injuries? None. Discussions with the players involved over tolerance? Well....yes.
How the fight started? Unknown, and completely left out of the story. Maybe some comments by one group against another, or maybe just some pushing or body-contact occurred. This could have simply occurred because one single guy insulted another single guy.
According to the news folks, there's going to be some counseling going on.
So a couple of years ago.....down in Zwickau (about half-way between Frankfurt and Dresden....over into the eastern chunk of Germany)....they started up a annual soccer tournament made up of migrant teams. This year would have been year seven of the idea.
This past week, the game came up between a mostly all Middle-Eastern group of guys, against a team of mostly all African guys. As the kick-off started.....a massive brawl started up.
The spectators were a bit shocked, and kinda left quickly from the field area. Serious injuries? None. Discussions with the players involved over tolerance? Well....yes.
How the fight started? Unknown, and completely left out of the story. Maybe some comments by one group against another, or maybe just some pushing or body-contact occurred. This could have simply occurred because one single guy insulted another single guy.
According to the news folks, there's going to be some counseling going on.
Saturday, July 28, 2018
Rail Travel and Heat
Prior to the 1990s, most of the railway trains that you rode in Germany....had windows that you could open, and zero air conditioning. With the modern era, came these train with AC units and enclosed cabins....meaning the windows could not be opened. When the AC failed? Well, it's best not to talk about that.
I noticed this week off WDR (regional public TV network from the NW).....from Thursday evening....some German train in the direction of Mülheim (near Essen)....got stopped with three-hundred people onboard.
What the Bahn guys will say is that a technical problem developed and the train just wasn't going to move.
So for about 90 minutes, it didn't move. This was on a day with major heat temperatures. AC? It apparently wasn't functional. So eventually an ambulance crew got called, and five folks from the train ended being carried off to some local hospital from heat issues and dehydration.
I noticed this week off WDR (regional public TV network from the NW).....from Thursday evening....some German train in the direction of Mülheim (near Essen)....got stopped with three-hundred people onboard.
What the Bahn guys will say is that a technical problem developed and the train just wasn't going to move.
So for about 90 minutes, it didn't move. This was on a day with major heat temperatures. AC? It apparently wasn't functional. So eventually an ambulance crew got called, and five folks from the train ended being carried off to some local hospital from heat issues and dehydration.
Friday, July 27, 2018
Sami Saga Continues
It's just a short update story from Deutsche Welle today.....over Osama bin Laden's former driver....A, who was deported (illegally) out of Germany to Tunisia, and now the German courts want him sent back. I've essay several times over the Sami story.
So the update today is this....Sami got released by the Tunisian cops. Yep....but they kept his passport and told him that he couldn't leave the country.
That court business back in Germany? Well....it's an interesting thing. The Tunisians say....NO one has requested from the German Foreign Office.....to have Sami retrieved or deported back to Germany. No one.
The court system? They have a fine pending on Bochum (the city for pushing on deportation) of 10,000 Euro at the end of this month, if Sami doesn't reappear.
Overall, I'd say this has become a big comedy affair, with Sami just sitting there in mass confusion. He's sitting there and could be yanked back to Germany.....but only if the German Foreign Office requested it. Apparently the court system hasn't said a word to them, and all this German hype (making this a top ten news piece) is rather amusing.
So the update today is this....Sami got released by the Tunisian cops. Yep....but they kept his passport and told him that he couldn't leave the country.
That court business back in Germany? Well....it's an interesting thing. The Tunisians say....NO one has requested from the German Foreign Office.....to have Sami retrieved or deported back to Germany. No one.
The court system? They have a fine pending on Bochum (the city for pushing on deportation) of 10,000 Euro at the end of this month, if Sami doesn't reappear.
Overall, I'd say this has become a big comedy affair, with Sami just sitting there in mass confusion. He's sitting there and could be yanked back to Germany.....but only if the German Foreign Office requested it. Apparently the court system hasn't said a word to them, and all this German hype (making this a top ten news piece) is rather amusing.
ISIS German Gal Story
I noticed this page two-type story this morning off the ARD news (public TV here in Germany, Channel One).
So back around five years ago (December 2013)....this German gal (not German-Turkish, but really just plain German).....age 26 at that time....got this idea to run off to the ISIS war in Syria.
Sabine Ulrike S. was arrested today by the German cops.
Back in 2013, she was married to a German guy and had two kids.
So arriving in Syria....she hooked up with and married a high-ranking ISIS commander. With this guy, she got the job of running an internet blog and propaganda unit. Over the next four years, she had two kids by this guy.
At some point in late 2016, that husband got killed off. Luckily for her.....the ISIS guys arranged for the next husband.
Around nine months pass, and in September 2017, she got picked up by Kurdish Forces and this year....April 2018....she was returned to Germany.
The German cops? They have enough info and laws to bring charges. Oddly enough, the arrest warrant was rejected (no one says why). This week, they redid the warrant and today.....she's being detained.
The marriage to husband number one (the German guy)? Well....no one says much but I suspect on paper, he's still married to her.
What'll happen? My guess is that the judge will decide to require a mental exam, and the doc will come back to say she's psycho and brain-washed. The judge will go off and mandate some two-year stay in some brain-wash rehab unit, and eventually she'll come back to confess she was all disturbed and unable to think clearly....then the charges all get dropped. Just my humble opinion.
True love with husband number one, two or three? I would have my doubts. Plus those first two kids with the German guy? Can you imagine being in the 6th grade and someone asking you about your mom, and you kinda state the obvious....Moma ran off with ISIS and got into some weird stuff in Syria with two husbands, while married to your dad.
So back around five years ago (December 2013)....this German gal (not German-Turkish, but really just plain German).....age 26 at that time....got this idea to run off to the ISIS war in Syria.
Sabine Ulrike S. was arrested today by the German cops.
Back in 2013, she was married to a German guy and had two kids.
So arriving in Syria....she hooked up with and married a high-ranking ISIS commander. With this guy, she got the job of running an internet blog and propaganda unit. Over the next four years, she had two kids by this guy.
At some point in late 2016, that husband got killed off. Luckily for her.....the ISIS guys arranged for the next husband.
Around nine months pass, and in September 2017, she got picked up by Kurdish Forces and this year....April 2018....she was returned to Germany.
The German cops? They have enough info and laws to bring charges. Oddly enough, the arrest warrant was rejected (no one says why). This week, they redid the warrant and today.....she's being detained.
The marriage to husband number one (the German guy)? Well....no one says much but I suspect on paper, he's still married to her.
What'll happen? My guess is that the judge will decide to require a mental exam, and the doc will come back to say she's psycho and brain-washed. The judge will go off and mandate some two-year stay in some brain-wash rehab unit, and eventually she'll come back to confess she was all disturbed and unable to think clearly....then the charges all get dropped. Just my humble opinion.
True love with husband number one, two or three? I would have my doubts. Plus those first two kids with the German guy? Can you imagine being in the 6th grade and someone asking you about your mom, and you kinda state the obvious....Moma ran off with ISIS and got into some weird stuff in Syria with two husbands, while married to your dad.
No Asylum Centers in North Africa
Pretty much as predicted. I noticed this in the news this morning via ARD (German public TV, Channel One).....the idea of EU-built asylum centers in North African countries? Zero interest.
All of the eligible countries have said 'no'.
So the paperwork drill has more or less ended.
Next up? Unknown.
At some point, you would imagine that the EU would just huddle together and admit that they can't fix the migration problem without saying in some bold way....'no, you won't get free access into Europe'.
Cash on the table? That was the interesting part of the attempt.....the EU was willing to put some cash on the table to get someone interested in this deal.
All of the eligible countries have said 'no'.
So the paperwork drill has more or less ended.
Next up? Unknown.
At some point, you would imagine that the EU would just huddle together and admit that they can't fix the migration problem without saying in some bold way....'no, you won't get free access into Europe'.
Cash on the table? That was the interesting part of the attempt.....the EU was willing to put some cash on the table to get someone interested in this deal.
Curious Migration Story
It was a short 10-line piece via Focus (the German news magazine) today that I noticed this odd stance taken by the leadership of Koln, Dusseldorf and Bonn (all in NW Germany).
The leadership (CDU and SPD) sent a letter to Chancellor Merkel and 'signaling' tat they are for more refugee pick-ups in the Med and to offer their cities as a reception center.
The wording was a bit odd....they said that they would serve as the temporary center for these refugees being picked up....until the permanent EU solution was resolved. This kinda meant that they felt that EU nations would be forced into taking the migrants, and that the folks that they temporarily brought in....would be resettled later, and that these people would readily pack up and 'go' elsewhere.
It is a bit amusing in some ways.
First, they assume that the EU will resolve the situation and come up with a permanent assignment program. Nothing really suggests that this will occur.
Second, they also assume that a year later.....if there was some solution....these people sitting in Koln, or Bonn....would just accept a movement order and go to Poland. I can pretty much assure them that no one will pack up and move like that.
Third, they are merely making their region into a magnet for the AfD Party, and attracting enough negativity to help propel the AfD another couple of points higher. It's like they want the AfD to climb up to 25-to-35 percent in the voting trend.
Fourth, cost? They are assuming that Berlin will just shell out the cash to make this idea to work.
Merkel going along with this? No. I think she's come to realize that no one in the EU really has a plan that will be accepted, and every step you make in this direction.....draws more attention to the AfD anti-migration message.
The leadership (CDU and SPD) sent a letter to Chancellor Merkel and 'signaling' tat they are for more refugee pick-ups in the Med and to offer their cities as a reception center.
The wording was a bit odd....they said that they would serve as the temporary center for these refugees being picked up....until the permanent EU solution was resolved. This kinda meant that they felt that EU nations would be forced into taking the migrants, and that the folks that they temporarily brought in....would be resettled later, and that these people would readily pack up and 'go' elsewhere.
It is a bit amusing in some ways.
First, they assume that the EU will resolve the situation and come up with a permanent assignment program. Nothing really suggests that this will occur.
Second, they also assume that a year later.....if there was some solution....these people sitting in Koln, or Bonn....would just accept a movement order and go to Poland. I can pretty much assure them that no one will pack up and move like that.
Third, they are merely making their region into a magnet for the AfD Party, and attracting enough negativity to help propel the AfD another couple of points higher. It's like they want the AfD to climb up to 25-to-35 percent in the voting trend.
Fourth, cost? They are assuming that Berlin will just shell out the cash to make this idea to work.
Merkel going along with this? No. I think she's come to realize that no one in the EU really has a plan that will be accepted, and every step you make in this direction.....draws more attention to the AfD anti-migration message.
Cacau Speaks on Racism Issue
It was a great interview last night on the ARD (German public TV) late news with Cacau (the former soccer player) who is the integrations chief of the German soccer league. Cacau went to say that that the leadership had taken some positive moves, but it'd screwed up as well....then turn to the Turkish-German player Mezut Özil situation....he also blamed Özil and the Turkish government to some degree.
It's hard to imagine that this situation has developed enough to be one of the top three topics on nightly news for at least ten days now.
You have a fair number of Turkish-Germans (some born and schooled here in Germany), who are big-time supporters of Erdogan and proud of the Turkish heritage. Germans are standing there in 'dismay', and shaking their heads because they've been hyped up over the past two years to be anti-Erdogan and to find any German supporting Erdogan fails their 'logic-test'.
The Erdogan use of the soccer story to hit on Germany? Almost daily, there's some statement being made and accusations of racism on Germany.
It's hard to imagine that this situation has developed enough to be one of the top three topics on nightly news for at least ten days now.
You have a fair number of Turkish-Germans (some born and schooled here in Germany), who are big-time supporters of Erdogan and proud of the Turkish heritage. Germans are standing there in 'dismay', and shaking their heads because they've been hyped up over the past two years to be anti-Erdogan and to find any German supporting Erdogan fails their 'logic-test'.
The Erdogan use of the soccer story to hit on Germany? Almost daily, there's some statement being made and accusations of racism on Germany.
Thursday, July 26, 2018
The 6,000 Euro 'Gift'
It's a page three story which won't get much traction in Germany.
Basically, the EU has stood up and said that any of the member states (all 28 of them)....who decide to take migrants who've been picked up in the Med.....will be granted a 'commission' for each one that they take.....roughly $7k or 6,000 Euro.
Yes, it is a one-time 'gift'......not a yearly thing.
Would the 6,000 Euro cover the real cost over the next twelve months for the guy (to include shelter, food, language classes)? It would probably go and cover about four to six months, at best.
Will any member state take it? No one in the news media business will suggest anything to that question. My guess is that it's not in the amount to interest countries. Now....how much would it take? In my humble opinion....you would need to put around 30,000 Euro on the table to get the interest of about half of the EU. With that however, they'd want a background check and some assurances of the person's character. The EU would likely refuse that request.
The amusing end piece of this little episode, if you think about it......the EU has to tax you enough....to get the cash.....to offer you the free 'gift' or incentive.....so you paid them already, and this is merely an effort to get the cash back. Amusing, if you think about it.
Basically, the EU has stood up and said that any of the member states (all 28 of them)....who decide to take migrants who've been picked up in the Med.....will be granted a 'commission' for each one that they take.....roughly $7k or 6,000 Euro.
Yes, it is a one-time 'gift'......not a yearly thing.
Would the 6,000 Euro cover the real cost over the next twelve months for the guy (to include shelter, food, language classes)? It would probably go and cover about four to six months, at best.
Will any member state take it? No one in the news media business will suggest anything to that question. My guess is that it's not in the amount to interest countries. Now....how much would it take? In my humble opinion....you would need to put around 30,000 Euro on the table to get the interest of about half of the EU. With that however, they'd want a background check and some assurances of the person's character. The EU would likely refuse that request.
The amusing end piece of this little episode, if you think about it......the EU has to tax you enough....to get the cash.....to offer you the free 'gift' or incentive.....so you paid them already, and this is merely an effort to get the cash back. Amusing, if you think about it.
Summer Heat
Over the past two weeks.....summer has finally hit upon Germany. Yes, 95-degree F temperatures are now pretty much in effect across the land. With it, in various areas over the past six weeks....almost no rain.
So you have pavements on autobahns and runways....buckling up. You have employees showing up at 6 AM to do hard physical labor, and trying to get the bulk of it done by noon.
You have buses and trains running.....with marginal AC units in full operation, but delivering maybe half the cooling necessary.
You have ice cream stands running at full maximum manpower, and doing a 10,000 Euro turn-over in one single day.
You have folks sitting out on their balcony at 9 PM, mostly in a state of undress because the interior of the house or apartment is still way too hot. And they will likely still be there at 11 PM.....trying to cool off.
Horses stand around mostly in the field under the cover of a tree, until the sun starts to set.
People avoid cooking because it just raises the indoor temperature of the apartment another eight degrees Centigrade.
Women wear provocative clothing, and show as much skin as possible.
People start to think about buying air conditioners but their spouse starts to hype about electrical cost.
In an average summer, you might have around fifteen days of extreme heat....mostly in groups of two or three consecutive days....here and there. Right now....it's about the ninth consecutive day, and at least five more anticipated (maybe even ten more).
Looking for an AC-atmosphere? You'd have to go into town....to some major department store. Most bakeries won't have an AC unit. From my village, I doubt if you can find more than sixty of the 500 homes/apartments with AC units.
So the desire here is just to take it....sip liquids....put some wet towels over your head, and hope that some thunderstorm comes through to cool things offf.
So you have pavements on autobahns and runways....buckling up. You have employees showing up at 6 AM to do hard physical labor, and trying to get the bulk of it done by noon.
You have buses and trains running.....with marginal AC units in full operation, but delivering maybe half the cooling necessary.
You have ice cream stands running at full maximum manpower, and doing a 10,000 Euro turn-over in one single day.
You have folks sitting out on their balcony at 9 PM, mostly in a state of undress because the interior of the house or apartment is still way too hot. And they will likely still be there at 11 PM.....trying to cool off.
Horses stand around mostly in the field under the cover of a tree, until the sun starts to set.
People avoid cooking because it just raises the indoor temperature of the apartment another eight degrees Centigrade.
Women wear provocative clothing, and show as much skin as possible.
People start to think about buying air conditioners but their spouse starts to hype about electrical cost.
In an average summer, you might have around fifteen days of extreme heat....mostly in groups of two or three consecutive days....here and there. Right now....it's about the ninth consecutive day, and at least five more anticipated (maybe even ten more).
Looking for an AC-atmosphere? You'd have to go into town....to some major department store. Most bakeries won't have an AC unit. From my village, I doubt if you can find more than sixty of the 500 homes/apartments with AC units.
So the desire here is just to take it....sip liquids....put some wet towels over your head, and hope that some thunderstorm comes through to cool things offf.
After the EU-Trump Meeting
As the smoke cleared, several things fell into place.
First, (as CNBC tells the story) the EU and the US agreed toward a deal allowing US natural gas to be sold in Europe. The chief of the EU side.....European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker....said that the EU would be building additional terminals to import liquefied natural gas, or LNG. It's unknown where the units would be built or if they'd be the new style floating facilities (meaning miles off-shore).
Second, as I previewed N-TV news this morning (the commercial news network of Germany).....a number of things fell into place. Juncker and Trump both agreed to future meetings to reduce trade tariffs. They agreed that the new US tariff that would have affected German cars sold in the US.....would not be implemented.
Third, soybean chatter? Yes.....apparently, the EU is set to buy soybeans (an almost immediate deal is being worked up). Why? China, in a fast-pace game....dumped various contracts with anger over the tariffs facing them. The EU sees an opportunity to get deals going.
So did Trump 'win'? I wouldn't say that this is ended or clearly a win. On most accounts, Trump got concessions and the US markets are improved from what they were before. The worries about a recession on German markets? Gone. Like a puff of smoke....clearly gone.
The next day or two? I'd expect stock prices to rise in a dramatic way, and people start to chill out.
First, (as CNBC tells the story) the EU and the US agreed toward a deal allowing US natural gas to be sold in Europe. The chief of the EU side.....European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker....said that the EU would be building additional terminals to import liquefied natural gas, or LNG. It's unknown where the units would be built or if they'd be the new style floating facilities (meaning miles off-shore).
Second, as I previewed N-TV news this morning (the commercial news network of Germany).....a number of things fell into place. Juncker and Trump both agreed to future meetings to reduce trade tariffs. They agreed that the new US tariff that would have affected German cars sold in the US.....would not be implemented.
Third, soybean chatter? Yes.....apparently, the EU is set to buy soybeans (an almost immediate deal is being worked up). Why? China, in a fast-pace game....dumped various contracts with anger over the tariffs facing them. The EU sees an opportunity to get deals going.
So did Trump 'win'? I wouldn't say that this is ended or clearly a win. On most accounts, Trump got concessions and the US markets are improved from what they were before. The worries about a recession on German markets? Gone. Like a puff of smoke....clearly gone.
The next day or two? I'd expect stock prices to rise in a dramatic way, and people start to chill out.
Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Germans and Racism
I tried to write an essay four years ago, over my impression of Germans and racism. A number of folks felt I was too harsh on the Germans and racism simply didn't exist in Germany. I came to have some doubts, and on that rare occasion....dumped the essay after a week or two.
Over the past two weeks of watching this Mesut Özil soccer episode unfold, I've picked back up this racism thing, and will write my view of this German issue.
Germany, as a group, a country, and a people.....didn't really come into being until you get to the 1830-to-1870 era. Pull up a map of 1800's 'Germania' and it consisted of 200 city-states, empires, kingdoms, and lands.
If you were looking for multicultural tendencies, it's hard to find any group that came in to claim asylum or immigration and got readily accepted until the 1950s came along with the 'guest-workers' (first, Italy.....than later the Greeks and Yugoslavs, and then came the Turks).
The Jews? They weren't exactly an original tribal unit in Germany, and were introduced during the Roman era. They came as traders and their bad-luck moment came up with the Roman era ending and the Catholic Church era beginning. As the Catholic vision got laid out.....to pay taxes, it was simply morally wrong for Christians to loan money to neighbors with money-conditions attached. Course, it was perfectly ok to borrow money (with money-conditions) from Jews. Various Germans fell through on their loans, the Jewish money-crews confiscated what was promised, and their negativity with the public feel apart because of that moral vision. Nothing much recovered after that moment of early German history.
Acceptance of Turks? In the 1960s, Turks arrived to find a pretty decent wage situation, and gravitated to the cheaper apartments. The older areas of metropolitan areas got labeled as 'ghetto-like'. Maybe it wasn't a fair deal but it stuck.
In the old East Germany.....guest-workers came from Vietnam and Mozambique. Same story.
If you were around Frankfurt in the 1980s, you kinda noticed more Africans showing up, and Germans weren't that happy or thrilled over their arrival.
The folks who don't really get on the German racism list? Nordic country folks....like Swedes or Icelanders? No. French or Spanish folks? No. The Dutch? No. The Swiss or Austrians? No.
So you get to Poles. To a point or two, they get on the list....mostly for coming in and working jobs at lower rates. Poles aren't stupid....there's plenty of job opportunities, and they are just happy to get their foot in the front door.
Russians? Germans seem to be split here. You have some Germans who seem to want to hug every Russian they bump into. Then you have some Germans who remember WW II, and family members they lost because of the Russians. Most Germans dislike Putin, but if you ask why.....they gave the standard ARD or ZDF (public TV media) explanation....he's a dictator (beyond that, little else).
Up until 2013, most Germans had never met a Syrian or Iraqi in their life. They could speak to the location, and the 'dictator-status' that they heard about via public TV news.
Americans? One might laugh but we tend to get on the racism list these days, if there's any discussion going on about Trump or tariffs.
To say that it's about skin color only? No.....that framing of racism no longer works. You have to include nationality, religion, political stances, and current news of the day given to folks by public TV.
So to this soccer story. One single photo....with this player standing with Turkey's Erdogan, has set off this whole discussion of racism. The German soccer league? They basically stepped into a fairly big-size cow-patty, and in the public arena.....they look stupid. Politicians are wearily of talking over this because it all leads back to Erdogan, who they all dislike.
A long period public forums over this topic? In about three weeks....the summer vacation periods ends in Germany, and I expect a whole month of racism chatter on public forums. Whether this achieves much of anything? No, I'd generally say it does very little. But it's better than discussing the pension program which can't be fixed, or the anger over TV taxes which can't be fixed, or the approaching global warming business which can't be resolved.
Over the past two weeks of watching this Mesut Özil soccer episode unfold, I've picked back up this racism thing, and will write my view of this German issue.
Germany, as a group, a country, and a people.....didn't really come into being until you get to the 1830-to-1870 era. Pull up a map of 1800's 'Germania' and it consisted of 200 city-states, empires, kingdoms, and lands.
If you were looking for multicultural tendencies, it's hard to find any group that came in to claim asylum or immigration and got readily accepted until the 1950s came along with the 'guest-workers' (first, Italy.....than later the Greeks and Yugoslavs, and then came the Turks).
The Jews? They weren't exactly an original tribal unit in Germany, and were introduced during the Roman era. They came as traders and their bad-luck moment came up with the Roman era ending and the Catholic Church era beginning. As the Catholic vision got laid out.....to pay taxes, it was simply morally wrong for Christians to loan money to neighbors with money-conditions attached. Course, it was perfectly ok to borrow money (with money-conditions) from Jews. Various Germans fell through on their loans, the Jewish money-crews confiscated what was promised, and their negativity with the public feel apart because of that moral vision. Nothing much recovered after that moment of early German history.
Acceptance of Turks? In the 1960s, Turks arrived to find a pretty decent wage situation, and gravitated to the cheaper apartments. The older areas of metropolitan areas got labeled as 'ghetto-like'. Maybe it wasn't a fair deal but it stuck.
In the old East Germany.....guest-workers came from Vietnam and Mozambique. Same story.
If you were around Frankfurt in the 1980s, you kinda noticed more Africans showing up, and Germans weren't that happy or thrilled over their arrival.
The folks who don't really get on the German racism list? Nordic country folks....like Swedes or Icelanders? No. French or Spanish folks? No. The Dutch? No. The Swiss or Austrians? No.
So you get to Poles. To a point or two, they get on the list....mostly for coming in and working jobs at lower rates. Poles aren't stupid....there's plenty of job opportunities, and they are just happy to get their foot in the front door.
Russians? Germans seem to be split here. You have some Germans who seem to want to hug every Russian they bump into. Then you have some Germans who remember WW II, and family members they lost because of the Russians. Most Germans dislike Putin, but if you ask why.....they gave the standard ARD or ZDF (public TV media) explanation....he's a dictator (beyond that, little else).
Up until 2013, most Germans had never met a Syrian or Iraqi in their life. They could speak to the location, and the 'dictator-status' that they heard about via public TV news.
Americans? One might laugh but we tend to get on the racism list these days, if there's any discussion going on about Trump or tariffs.
To say that it's about skin color only? No.....that framing of racism no longer works. You have to include nationality, religion, political stances, and current news of the day given to folks by public TV.
So to this soccer story. One single photo....with this player standing with Turkey's Erdogan, has set off this whole discussion of racism. The German soccer league? They basically stepped into a fairly big-size cow-patty, and in the public arena.....they look stupid. Politicians are wearily of talking over this because it all leads back to Erdogan, who they all dislike.
A long period public forums over this topic? In about three weeks....the summer vacation periods ends in Germany, and I expect a whole month of racism chatter on public forums. Whether this achieves much of anything? No, I'd generally say it does very little. But it's better than discussing the pension program which can't be fixed, or the anger over TV taxes which can't be fixed, or the approaching global warming business which can't be resolved.
The Cost of an American Car in Germany
Few analysts sit down and lay out the cost factor of a US car, delivered into Germany. So here is the rate.
The ship arrives and off comes Car-X (made in New Jersey). The company makes this car, with profits figured in, and the shipping costs.....at $21,000.
As it comes off the vessel, there is a 10-percent import tax applied. So that car goes to the German dealer at $23,100. But the dealer now has to add in the VAT (the sales tax), which is set to 19-percent. This brings the car up to $27,489. The dealer needs to make his profit on this, so the cost will rise around 1,500, so the car is now around $29,000.
Figure the Euro exchange rate, and the car appears on the lot for 23,780 Euro.
The import tax and the 19-percent sales tax? Basically making an American car near 30-percent more. Is that the only issue? No.
Most American cars don't appeal to the European consumer. The Jeep? Yes. The Mustang? To some degree. In an average year, I will see around two-hundred PT-Cruisers on the German highways. But the look/appeal, along with gas mileage, and the cost-factor.....all weigh against the US car industry having some chance to market their cars. That's the simple truth.
The ship arrives and off comes Car-X (made in New Jersey). The company makes this car, with profits figured in, and the shipping costs.....at $21,000.
As it comes off the vessel, there is a 10-percent import tax applied. So that car goes to the German dealer at $23,100. But the dealer now has to add in the VAT (the sales tax), which is set to 19-percent. This brings the car up to $27,489. The dealer needs to make his profit on this, so the cost will rise around 1,500, so the car is now around $29,000.
Figure the Euro exchange rate, and the car appears on the lot for 23,780 Euro.
The import tax and the 19-percent sales tax? Basically making an American car near 30-percent more. Is that the only issue? No.
Most American cars don't appeal to the European consumer. The Jeep? Yes. The Mustang? To some degree. In an average year, I will see around two-hundred PT-Cruisers on the German highways. But the look/appeal, along with gas mileage, and the cost-factor.....all weigh against the US car industry having some chance to market their cars. That's the simple truth.
The Double-Citizenship Story
It's a curious story. First, no German news source (as far as I have seen) has reported this...it's all from outside of Germany. So the story goes....the German Foreign Ministry is drafting up a law which would say....Brits who apply for German citizenship prior to BREXIT day (March 2019).....would be able to retain their British citizenship, while becoming a German. Yes, dual-citizenship.
It's being called the "Transitional BREXIT Act".
Why not admit this in the German public? That would be a curious question.
How many might apply? No one says. If I were to take a guess here....I'd suggest somewhere in the neighborhood of 100,000 to 200,000. The language element? Well....that's the other part to this, you could only reach actual citizenship, if you passed the B1 level, and that might be a problem.
If they passed this into law, and only fifty people applied? Yeah, that is a possibility.
As for Germans asking questions? If you woke up tomorrow and suddenly someone laid out the element of 600,000 Brits wanting to move in the next year or two into Germany.....that would probably freak some folks out.
It'll be interesting to see if the AfD Party opposes this.
It's being called the "Transitional BREXIT Act".
Why not admit this in the German public? That would be a curious question.
How many might apply? No one says. If I were to take a guess here....I'd suggest somewhere in the neighborhood of 100,000 to 200,000. The language element? Well....that's the other part to this, you could only reach actual citizenship, if you passed the B1 level, and that might be a problem.
If they passed this into law, and only fifty people applied? Yeah, that is a possibility.
As for Germans asking questions? If you woke up tomorrow and suddenly someone laid out the element of 600,000 Brits wanting to move in the next year or two into Germany.....that would probably freak some folks out.
It'll be interesting to see if the AfD Party opposes this.
Fake Marriage Story
I looked over local news in the Rhein Valley area today, and came across this HR (our regional public TV network) news piece about crime and illegal marriages. It's an odd story.
German cops in Frankfurt say that for 30,000 Euro....a gang would arrange a fake marriage deal for Chinese folks. Apparently, the cops got enough info....to have a search warrant, and went out to nineteen houses or business-fronts....to figure out the remainder of the deal.
The marriages? They were arranged with EU citizens....done in Denmark (typically where you'd go and few questions ever asked, if you wanted a simple marriage situation).
The lady or partner in this....would get 10,000 Euro of the thirty-thousand paid to the smuggling group.
End of the fake marriage routine? No....probably not. Someone will just go and figure out a different way of doing this, and locate their headquarters for the gang somewhere else.
German cops in Frankfurt say that for 30,000 Euro....a gang would arrange a fake marriage deal for Chinese folks. Apparently, the cops got enough info....to have a search warrant, and went out to nineteen houses or business-fronts....to figure out the remainder of the deal.
The marriages? They were arranged with EU citizens....done in Denmark (typically where you'd go and few questions ever asked, if you wanted a simple marriage situation).
The lady or partner in this....would get 10,000 Euro of the thirty-thousand paid to the smuggling group.
End of the fake marriage routine? No....probably not. Someone will just go and figure out a different way of doing this, and locate their headquarters for the gang somewhere else.
Sami A Saga Continues
About four weeks ago, I essayed over the episode in Germany with Tunisian Sami A (the former Bin Laden driver). The basic story is that he'd ended up in Germany after the US released him, and the Germans evaluated his application for asylum. The original decision was 'no'.....with deportation the next likely event. Well....Sami went onto an appeal. Somewhere in the shuffling of paperwork, the local authorities proceeded on with deportation, and Tunisia took him back. Course, they had questions and he's being interrogated. Then the German court system woke up and said that deportation was absolutely illegal, and got all upset. They ordered the city authorities to go and fetch Sami back. The city authorities then counter-sued the court system and said this was order was not acceptable.
Today, I noticed via ARD news (public TV in Germany, Channel One) that the Administrative Court of Gelsenkirchen spoke up on the act of bringing Sami back, giving a deadline.
They say if the city of Bochum doesn't get the job done by the end of July.....then there's going to be a penalty fee of 10,000 Euro required.
The city of Bochum? So far, they haven't said much. I think they are evaluating the situation. To be honest, if Tunisia won't release him to come back....the discussion of this fee or fine becomes a joke. Could the city refuse to pay? Maybe. But the court would appoint someone to go and collect assets to equal 10,000 Euro. It's possible that a higher court might step in and block this action but it's rare that such things happen.
Angering the public in Bochum? You have a mixture of pro-asylum folks and anti-asylum folks. This could aggravate both groups to be vocal.
Today, I noticed via ARD news (public TV in Germany, Channel One) that the Administrative Court of Gelsenkirchen spoke up on the act of bringing Sami back, giving a deadline.
They say if the city of Bochum doesn't get the job done by the end of July.....then there's going to be a penalty fee of 10,000 Euro required.
The city of Bochum? So far, they haven't said much. I think they are evaluating the situation. To be honest, if Tunisia won't release him to come back....the discussion of this fee or fine becomes a joke. Could the city refuse to pay? Maybe. But the court would appoint someone to go and collect assets to equal 10,000 Euro. It's possible that a higher court might step in and block this action but it's rare that such things happen.
Angering the public in Bochum? You have a mixture of pro-asylum folks and anti-asylum folks. This could aggravate both groups to be vocal.
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
The Google Story
There was a short piece today appearing in German business news....via Focus (the German magazine). The hint? Well....after viewing the EU hit on Google by the fine commission....there's this rumor. The talk is that President Trump is looking for a European business to stage a retaliatory fine upon.
Truth to the story? Well....you can't say yes or no.
The problem I see is that if any German car maker comes out with additional diesel issues (say BMW or Mercedes).....then you could see some type retaliation effort laid out. VW's episode, as far as I can see.....is already wrapped up.
It would be simpler if Google would just disengage from the European continent and just refuse to allow any EU user to use it's search engine. They could even make it a Monday morning to Friday night limitation.....just for a month.
Truth to the story? Well....you can't say yes or no.
The problem I see is that if any German car maker comes out with additional diesel issues (say BMW or Mercedes).....then you could see some type retaliation effort laid out. VW's episode, as far as I can see.....is already wrapped up.
It would be simpler if Google would just disengage from the European continent and just refuse to allow any EU user to use it's search engine. They could even make it a Monday morning to Friday night limitation.....just for a month.
Mesut Özil Almost Daily Now
If you follow German news over the past ten days....Mesut Özil, the Turkish soccer player....owns the front page of every single newspaper, and is probably one of the top three stories told nightly via ARD or ZDF public TV news.
Racism? That's the complete story. You could see this brewing back in the summer of 2016, when Erdogan's 'coup' episode came up and suddenly German professed to see Erdogan as some 'evil' character.
Since that period, Erdogan has gone to reshape the perception among Turks in Germany.....making them feel some national pride and a majority being pro-Erdogan. In turn, this angers Germans, and has created some aggravation....which hypes up Turks, and they state the obvious.....racism.
Something that Merkel needs to play into? How? That's the odd thing about this story. Özil gets into the middle of this by being pro-Erdogan. You can easily find dozens of prominent Turkish figures in Germany who are anti-Erdogan.
I'll go ahead and predict that this is still a major story as you come to mid-August.
Racism? That's the complete story. You could see this brewing back in the summer of 2016, when Erdogan's 'coup' episode came up and suddenly German professed to see Erdogan as some 'evil' character.
Since that period, Erdogan has gone to reshape the perception among Turks in Germany.....making them feel some national pride and a majority being pro-Erdogan. In turn, this angers Germans, and has created some aggravation....which hypes up Turks, and they state the obvious.....racism.
Something that Merkel needs to play into? How? That's the odd thing about this story. Özil gets into the middle of this by being pro-Erdogan. You can easily find dozens of prominent Turkish figures in Germany who are anti-Erdogan.
I'll go ahead and predict that this is still a major story as you come to mid-August.
Summer Speed Limits
I saw a short piece pop up last night....talking over an emergency autobahn speed limit down in the Baden-Württemberg region (central region near Stuttgart).
The local authorities are ordering a 'special' speed limit on Autobahn 81 and Autobahn 7.
Reason? Heat.
The Germans have a method of autobahn paving....where they leave the concrete base in place upon repaving, and just put a layer of asphalt on top of that. Normally, there's no negative to this. However, in periods of harsh heat (as the last week has been).....it's likely to have the asphalt 'pop-out'. You could be driving along at 150 kph (93 mph) and suddenly hit some area where there's three inches of asphalt gone from a six-foot circular area.
So the speed limit for numerous on the two roads.....is limited to 80 kph (49 mph).
More of these limits? For the next ten days, it's expected to be fairly hot across Germany. You will see more communities stage a 80 kph deal.
The local authorities are ordering a 'special' speed limit on Autobahn 81 and Autobahn 7.
Reason? Heat.
The Germans have a method of autobahn paving....where they leave the concrete base in place upon repaving, and just put a layer of asphalt on top of that. Normally, there's no negative to this. However, in periods of harsh heat (as the last week has been).....it's likely to have the asphalt 'pop-out'. You could be driving along at 150 kph (93 mph) and suddenly hit some area where there's three inches of asphalt gone from a six-foot circular area.
So the speed limit for numerous on the two roads.....is limited to 80 kph (49 mph).
More of these limits? For the next ten days, it's expected to be fairly hot across Germany. You will see more communities stage a 80 kph deal.
The Turk Story
There are 82-million residents in Germany, and out of that.....2.8-million are Turkish in nature. Since the 1960s, Turks have come to Germany for employment. Some came for a couple of years, and returned to Turkey....some stayed permanently.
ARD (public TV, Channel One) lays out an interesting study done on the Turkish situation in Germany.
By the numbers, half of this 2.8-million are German citizens, and half were actually born here.
This study went to the northwest of Germany (NRW) and surveyed Turk-Germans there. As the study concludes.....around 89-percent of them feel still very strongly associated with Turkey. They don't really go into details, but I'm guessing that they go back every year or two and visit the relatives.....marry within the Turk-German channels....and mostly associate or 'party' with like-minded people.
There is some feeling (as the report goes) that Turkey has reached out and suggested that while they are outside of Turkey.....Turkey 'cares' for them. This has been a strong message in the Erdogan-era.
Part of this study also goes to talk about Turks in Germany not seeing themselves as 'equals' of Germans.
The study goes and talks about this issue of "double identity"....where these folks are stuck having to deal with two walks of life, two cultures, and it's difficulty.
So you come to this curious statistic.....just over half the Turk-Germans are of the belief that Turkey is more concerned about their life, than the German government. Chief reason? Turkish pride, which Erdogan is delivering upon. The German pride? Well.....as the story suggests....a "second-class citizen".
What the story skips over is that a fair number of people who fit into the overall numbers.....are Turk-Kurds. Back around three years ago, it was estimated that 650k to 800k Turk-Kurds existed in Germany. In the past three years, with turmoil in Syria and Iraq....I would suggest that it's closer to 900,000 Turk-Kurds in Germany today. They....interestingly enough....are not really so pro-Erdogan (in fact, they'd usually have some harsh words to say).
Interaction between Kurd and Turks in Germany? It's an uneasy situation and they don't socialize. For this study that ARD talks about....I doubt if any Kurd was consulted.
In terms of Germany being a 'melting-pot'.....you've got a minimum of fifteen groups of people who have a minimum of 200,000 members in Germany. You can do the math and see that roughly sixteen million people within Germany fit into what you'd call first or second generation immigrant status. If you went back to the 1960 period and suggested that one out of every four people on a German street would be a non-German? People would have laughed, but that's where we are today.
ARD (public TV, Channel One) lays out an interesting study done on the Turkish situation in Germany.
By the numbers, half of this 2.8-million are German citizens, and half were actually born here.
This study went to the northwest of Germany (NRW) and surveyed Turk-Germans there. As the study concludes.....around 89-percent of them feel still very strongly associated with Turkey. They don't really go into details, but I'm guessing that they go back every year or two and visit the relatives.....marry within the Turk-German channels....and mostly associate or 'party' with like-minded people.
There is some feeling (as the report goes) that Turkey has reached out and suggested that while they are outside of Turkey.....Turkey 'cares' for them. This has been a strong message in the Erdogan-era.
Part of this study also goes to talk about Turks in Germany not seeing themselves as 'equals' of Germans.
The study goes and talks about this issue of "double identity"....where these folks are stuck having to deal with two walks of life, two cultures, and it's difficulty.
So you come to this curious statistic.....just over half the Turk-Germans are of the belief that Turkey is more concerned about their life, than the German government. Chief reason? Turkish pride, which Erdogan is delivering upon. The German pride? Well.....as the story suggests....a "second-class citizen".
What the story skips over is that a fair number of people who fit into the overall numbers.....are Turk-Kurds. Back around three years ago, it was estimated that 650k to 800k Turk-Kurds existed in Germany. In the past three years, with turmoil in Syria and Iraq....I would suggest that it's closer to 900,000 Turk-Kurds in Germany today. They....interestingly enough....are not really so pro-Erdogan (in fact, they'd usually have some harsh words to say).
Interaction between Kurd and Turks in Germany? It's an uneasy situation and they don't socialize. For this study that ARD talks about....I doubt if any Kurd was consulted.
In terms of Germany being a 'melting-pot'.....you've got a minimum of fifteen groups of people who have a minimum of 200,000 members in Germany. You can do the math and see that roughly sixteen million people within Germany fit into what you'd call first or second generation immigrant status. If you went back to the 1960 period and suggested that one out of every four people on a German street would be a non-German? People would have laughed, but that's where we are today.
Monday, July 23, 2018
Mesut Özil Story
Focus (the German news magazine) laid out the sports story today, which will go to page one on internal politics and set up a long-term problem for German soccer.
Mesut Özil resigned from the German national team this weekend. You could classify him as a Turkish-German....fully integrated into German culture and sports....29 years old, and probably one of the ten best players in Germany today.
For several months, things have been brewing. He had a picture taken of him and Turkish President Erdogan. It got into the public, and because of this anti-Erdogan slant that's been going on....people were anti-Mesut.
This even reached into the headquarters of German soccer. Accusations of racism came against the soccer chief of the German sport league, Reinhard Grindel.
What happens now? There are a fair number of Turk-Germans who live in Germany and have watched the whole thing play out. I suspect in the minds of most....Mesut got a raw deal, and they might have a problem with league games as they play out.
How the German sports folks handled this? I would suggest that it was the act of 12-year-old kids pretending to be adults. They should have seen this coming and been prepared. By taking politics into the sports arena....they've made the sport into something less-than-a-sport. This week? I expect this to be one of the top three topics of the week, and it might drag on for months.
Mesut Özil resigned from the German national team this weekend. You could classify him as a Turkish-German....fully integrated into German culture and sports....29 years old, and probably one of the ten best players in Germany today.
For several months, things have been brewing. He had a picture taken of him and Turkish President Erdogan. It got into the public, and because of this anti-Erdogan slant that's been going on....people were anti-Mesut.
This even reached into the headquarters of German soccer. Accusations of racism came against the soccer chief of the German sport league, Reinhard Grindel.
What happens now? There are a fair number of Turk-Germans who live in Germany and have watched the whole thing play out. I suspect in the minds of most....Mesut got a raw deal, and they might have a problem with league games as they play out.
How the German sports folks handled this? I would suggest that it was the act of 12-year-old kids pretending to be adults. They should have seen this coming and been prepared. By taking politics into the sports arena....they've made the sport into something less-than-a-sport. This week? I expect this to be one of the top three topics of the week, and it might drag on for months.
Sunday, July 22, 2018
From Friday Afternoon Attack
If you follow local news from Lübeck, and look at the Friday afternoon bus attack.....things have simmered down a bit.
What the German cops now say is that an arrest warrant is prepared and the German-Iranian guy will be charged with attempted homicide (multiple), dangerous bodily injury, assault and attempted severe arson.
The odds of a mental exam being required? Absolute 100-percent chance. For this reason, I suspect in three to four months, a court action will occur and the guy will be declared insane enough to avoid the court case, but set permanently in some fairly guarded facility. He will never walk freely, in my humble opinion.
Luckily, no one has died from the episode. The driver is being recognized for several clever actions, and it's pretty ended now. Terror action? No.....the guy is just plain nuts, and may have been a threat for several years.
What the German cops now say is that an arrest warrant is prepared and the German-Iranian guy will be charged with attempted homicide (multiple), dangerous bodily injury, assault and attempted severe arson.
The odds of a mental exam being required? Absolute 100-percent chance. For this reason, I suspect in three to four months, a court action will occur and the guy will be declared insane enough to avoid the court case, but set permanently in some fairly guarded facility. He will never walk freely, in my humble opinion.
Luckily, no one has died from the episode. The driver is being recognized for several clever actions, and it's pretty ended now. Terror action? No.....the guy is just plain nuts, and may have been a threat for several years.
The 3:30 AM Alarm
I was awaken this morning in my German village by the local city fire siren. Like most village with a decent population, we have a local volunteer fire department, with a couple of trucks. What typically happens is the siren in the village will go off with a 25-second warble sound. It's a particular warble and you know precisely what it is. On average, I'd say in a typical year....there's around twenty-five occasions when it goes off. To be honest, in the mid-day...Monday through Friday....they might be lucky to get eight guys who are either farmers or work in the village who can tend to one single truck and make an appearance.
This alarm this morning at 3:30? Well....it went to a two-second strong pitch....then went way down quickly to a 35-percent pitch (slow-motion would be the best description) and then faded by the 8th second. Then a minute later, it repeated. A minute later, it repeated again. On and on, for maybe forty-odd minutes, this weird alarm kept going.
The village emergency crew will tell you that there are only two pitches or tones for the system....one is a continuous 'blast' which means full-up emergency (massive storm or impending doom), or this firemen's alert. But this weak warble tone didn't fit either episode.
Around the 5th warble, my German wife made the comment that this might mean a chemical disaster, or some massive airplane crash. I tried to disregard it and go back to sleep (that's the Alabama stoic type guy that I am). It took me maybe ten minutes but I did fall back to sleep.
This morning, the emergency folks explained to the news folks in Wiesbaden.....that....well...the back-up power battery had started to fail or short-out, and this was the only way to get to the attention of the maintenance folks. They did come to admit that there were dozens and dozens of calls.....from the residents of the town....asking if this was a special alarm that they need to react upon.
I would take a guess that well over half the town was fully awake by 4 AM, sipping coffee and wondering if they should take some action, but they just didn't know what kind of action. To add to the whole episode, there's two adjacent villages within a mile, and those folks could also hear the warble and also reflected upon this being a special but unknown type disaster as well.
Just my observation but it kinda shows the difference here. Germans were fixated upon the odd warble and how it didn't fit any of their diagrams or actions of 'trouble. They wanted to know the shape and size of the emergency. Me the American, once I tuned into it not being warble 'A' or 'B'....I more or less turned over and went back to sleep.
This alarm this morning at 3:30? Well....it went to a two-second strong pitch....then went way down quickly to a 35-percent pitch (slow-motion would be the best description) and then faded by the 8th second. Then a minute later, it repeated. A minute later, it repeated again. On and on, for maybe forty-odd minutes, this weird alarm kept going.
The village emergency crew will tell you that there are only two pitches or tones for the system....one is a continuous 'blast' which means full-up emergency (massive storm or impending doom), or this firemen's alert. But this weak warble tone didn't fit either episode.
Around the 5th warble, my German wife made the comment that this might mean a chemical disaster, or some massive airplane crash. I tried to disregard it and go back to sleep (that's the Alabama stoic type guy that I am). It took me maybe ten minutes but I did fall back to sleep.
This morning, the emergency folks explained to the news folks in Wiesbaden.....that....well...the back-up power battery had started to fail or short-out, and this was the only way to get to the attention of the maintenance folks. They did come to admit that there were dozens and dozens of calls.....from the residents of the town....asking if this was a special alarm that they need to react upon.
I would take a guess that well over half the town was fully awake by 4 AM, sipping coffee and wondering if they should take some action, but they just didn't know what kind of action. To add to the whole episode, there's two adjacent villages within a mile, and those folks could also hear the warble and also reflected upon this being a special but unknown type disaster as well.
Just my observation but it kinda shows the difference here. Germans were fixated upon the odd warble and how it didn't fit any of their diagrams or actions of 'trouble. They wanted to know the shape and size of the emergency. Me the American, once I tuned into it not being warble 'A' or 'B'....I more or less turned over and went back to sleep.
The Yellow Sack Story
Back in the 1990s when I returned to Germany, I was introduced to the 'Gelben sack' (the yellow bag). This was the invention of the pro-environmental crowd on disposing of aluminum-type recyclable materials.
It was a extremely thin plastic with a ultra-thin plastic 'string'. You would have this 'can' in your kitchen with a lid, and you'd attach the sack to the lid. As trash day came up each two weeks....you would take your one or two yellow bags out for pick up.
The chief complaint was that the bags easily broke (in an average year....I probably had six bags to break), and that the tie-up string simply wasn't capable of achieving success unless you limited the bag to roughly two-thirds of it's capability. At that point in time, it took only a year for me to be discouraged with the 'gelben sack' routine. In simple terms....it was crap.
The topic got brought up this week via ARD (public TV here in Germany, Channel One).
The Ministry of Environment has picked up the topic. There's a discussion going on to dump the stupid 'gelben sack' and force everyone (in particularly community garbage bosses)....to adapt to the plastic can (similar to the paper can and the bio-can that everyone now has).
In my area (Wiesbaden), they flipped over years ago, and dumped the yellow bags.....mandating that everyone have a plastic dumpster (on wheels).
Why having to make this a national policy? That's the thing about it. You would think with all the negativity....at least a decade ago....that various communities on their own would have dumped the stupid bags and gone to a plastic dumpster instead. So now it takes some national agenda to make things happen rather than simply listening to people locally in the first place.
It was a extremely thin plastic with a ultra-thin plastic 'string'. You would have this 'can' in your kitchen with a lid, and you'd attach the sack to the lid. As trash day came up each two weeks....you would take your one or two yellow bags out for pick up.
The chief complaint was that the bags easily broke (in an average year....I probably had six bags to break), and that the tie-up string simply wasn't capable of achieving success unless you limited the bag to roughly two-thirds of it's capability. At that point in time, it took only a year for me to be discouraged with the 'gelben sack' routine. In simple terms....it was crap.
The topic got brought up this week via ARD (public TV here in Germany, Channel One).
The Ministry of Environment has picked up the topic. There's a discussion going on to dump the stupid 'gelben sack' and force everyone (in particularly community garbage bosses)....to adapt to the plastic can (similar to the paper can and the bio-can that everyone now has).
In my area (Wiesbaden), they flipped over years ago, and dumped the yellow bags.....mandating that everyone have a plastic dumpster (on wheels).
Why having to make this a national policy? That's the thing about it. You would think with all the negativity....at least a decade ago....that various communities on their own would have dumped the stupid bags and gone to a plastic dumpster instead. So now it takes some national agenda to make things happen rather than simply listening to people locally in the first place.
A Program Story
The German government.....with the Ministry of Development at the head of this project, wanted to demonstrate that you could lessen migrant issues in Germany, by helping find potential returnees who wanted to go 'home', but needed help in finding a job.
ARD, the public TV of Germany....discussed this matter today.
The project? It's called "Perspektive Heimat". So far (from spring of 2017 to today).....they've made the program effective enough to connect NINE migrants to leave.
Yes....just nine.
On paper, the government has committed 150-million Euro to the project. Yes, nine people who passed through the door, with a 150-million Euro ready to be spent. Presently, I doubt that they've even crossed the 100,000 Euro point on expenditures (oddly, that part of the story was not told).
I sat and read through the piece twice. It's aimed primarily at seven countries: Afghanistan, Ghana, Iraq, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal and Tunisia.
On paper, and probably via someone's university thesis coming out of the 1980s.....it probably makes sense. It's just that when you take this idea into the reality of today, and you venture into the seven countries suggested....where exactly are employment opportunities.
I looked up the unemployment rate of these seven countries: Nigeria (18.8-percent), Ghana (2.4-percent), Iraq (14.8-percent), Afghanistan (8.8-percent), Tunisia (15.4-percent), Morocco (10.5-percent), and Senegal (15.7-percent).
In the case of Ghana, if you packaged up low-interest or no-interest business start-up loans....where a guy only needed 3,000 Euro to start up his own business, and maybe even employ two or three additional folks, it might make more sense to get into the entrepreneur business.
In the case of Iraq and Afghanistan, stability is questionable and enticements like this probably don't work.
At the current pace of things? Well....this program is designed to run through 2020, I doubt that they exceed more than 50 total success stories.
ARD, the public TV of Germany....discussed this matter today.
The project? It's called "Perspektive Heimat". So far (from spring of 2017 to today).....they've made the program effective enough to connect NINE migrants to leave.
Yes....just nine.
On paper, the government has committed 150-million Euro to the project. Yes, nine people who passed through the door, with a 150-million Euro ready to be spent. Presently, I doubt that they've even crossed the 100,000 Euro point on expenditures (oddly, that part of the story was not told).
I sat and read through the piece twice. It's aimed primarily at seven countries: Afghanistan, Ghana, Iraq, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal and Tunisia.
On paper, and probably via someone's university thesis coming out of the 1980s.....it probably makes sense. It's just that when you take this idea into the reality of today, and you venture into the seven countries suggested....where exactly are employment opportunities.
I looked up the unemployment rate of these seven countries: Nigeria (18.8-percent), Ghana (2.4-percent), Iraq (14.8-percent), Afghanistan (8.8-percent), Tunisia (15.4-percent), Morocco (10.5-percent), and Senegal (15.7-percent).
In the case of Ghana, if you packaged up low-interest or no-interest business start-up loans....where a guy only needed 3,000 Euro to start up his own business, and maybe even employ two or three additional folks, it might make more sense to get into the entrepreneur business.
In the case of Iraq and Afghanistan, stability is questionable and enticements like this probably don't work.
At the current pace of things? Well....this program is designed to run through 2020, I doubt that they exceed more than 50 total success stories.
The Tariff Problem
If you go and scan through German business news this morning, via N-TV....there's a short news bit coming from the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK).
IMK is basically predicting that if the tariff 'war' proceeds on....the cost to Germany over the next year is 20-billion Euro. A fair sum, one must admit.
The slant to this? IMK says that there would be some type of recession or 'crash' of the market in this type of scenario. The German economy would have to rely upon the internal market of Germany or that of the EU for make-up situation and that won't be enough to cover the shortfall. In the end, the 'big' market of the US....matters.
Somewhere on a white-board at the Bundestag, there's some numbers written down, and the leadership of the Merkel coalition knows the direction of the economy if this tariff situation isn't settled. The problem here is that they really aren't in control of the trade business anymore....they gave that 'duty' over to the EU. Getting this resolved isn't going to be a pleasant task.
IMK is basically predicting that if the tariff 'war' proceeds on....the cost to Germany over the next year is 20-billion Euro. A fair sum, one must admit.
The slant to this? IMK says that there would be some type of recession or 'crash' of the market in this type of scenario. The German economy would have to rely upon the internal market of Germany or that of the EU for make-up situation and that won't be enough to cover the shortfall. In the end, the 'big' market of the US....matters.
Somewhere on a white-board at the Bundestag, there's some numbers written down, and the leadership of the Merkel coalition knows the direction of the economy if this tariff situation isn't settled. The problem here is that they really aren't in control of the trade business anymore....they gave that 'duty' over to the EU. Getting this resolved isn't going to be a pleasant task.
The Kasten Story
I noticed this little clip of news off N-TV (German commercial news) this morning. If you ever been around Germany, you know that German beer is sold generally in a kasten (crate). These are constructed in a manner that offers maximum protect for the glass containers as they make their way from the brewery to the destination.
2018 is looking great for brewery operations right now, except for one thing.....kastens aren't coming back at the normal rate. Right now, breweries are running at maximum rates...which is a big positive. But some brewery operations are beginning to assess how they will manage the situation with limited number of kastens.
The typical German practice? Germans will go out and buy several kastens at the beginning of summer and store them in their basement or garage. If a guy is noted for having two or three grill-parties during the summer....with a number of guests, then you might go and find three or four varieties of beer, and at least five kastens of beer each.
With the deposit law in effect, each beer bottle has a deposit, and so does the kasten. So there's zero chance that people are throwing the kastens away. I would suspect that a lot of these are getting filled back up with the empties, and the German guy simply hasn't returned his bottles or kastens to the beverage dealer.
N-TV lays out one interesting fact.....Germans hold around 500 million reusable kastens, of which 180 million are beer-related (the rest are water or soda-related).
2018 is looking great for brewery operations right now, except for one thing.....kastens aren't coming back at the normal rate. Right now, breweries are running at maximum rates...which is a big positive. But some brewery operations are beginning to assess how they will manage the situation with limited number of kastens.
The typical German practice? Germans will go out and buy several kastens at the beginning of summer and store them in their basement or garage. If a guy is noted for having two or three grill-parties during the summer....with a number of guests, then you might go and find three or four varieties of beer, and at least five kastens of beer each.
With the deposit law in effect, each beer bottle has a deposit, and so does the kasten. So there's zero chance that people are throwing the kastens away. I would suspect that a lot of these are getting filled back up with the empties, and the German guy simply hasn't returned his bottles or kastens to the beverage dealer.
N-TV lays out one interesting fact.....Germans hold around 500 million reusable kastens, of which 180 million are beer-related (the rest are water or soda-related).
Saturday, July 21, 2018
Foreigners in the German Army?
For a number of years, the Germans have attempted to run a volunteer Army. They went through the US practice and have tried to develop various recruitment angles that would attract young people. Basically....it's been a marginal success. The recruitment folks will admit that they are behind on numbers and simply can't reach the levels required.
So there's this interesting Focus magazine article today which talks to this problem.
The new angle? Allow foreigners to be in the German Army. The pay-back? A German passport.....citizenship.
This is simply an idea on paper right now, and would face a significant amount of political bickering. Various political parties which are pro-asylum and pro-migration, would probably NOT be supportive of this agenda. I have my doubts that the Linke Party or Green Party would support this.
The initial phase I suspect....would just be a EU-open door. If you were from some other EU member state....you'd get this invitation.
Language issue? Well, this is probably the biggest stumbling block. Even with the intensive program, you'd have to invest a minimum of nine months into a program to bring up to day one of Army boot-camp.
Then the question comes up....how many people from across the EU would be willing to sign up to this type of deal? There hasn't been any polling to suggest numbers, and this might be a total failure just to consider anyway.
Going beyond the EU....say to allow Thai, or Mexican, or Nigerian individuals to join? It would be a pretty big step. But in this case, I would imagine they'd easily attract 20,000 African men and women each year, if the citizenship was the deal.
So there's this interesting Focus magazine article today which talks to this problem.
The new angle? Allow foreigners to be in the German Army. The pay-back? A German passport.....citizenship.
This is simply an idea on paper right now, and would face a significant amount of political bickering. Various political parties which are pro-asylum and pro-migration, would probably NOT be supportive of this agenda. I have my doubts that the Linke Party or Green Party would support this.
The initial phase I suspect....would just be a EU-open door. If you were from some other EU member state....you'd get this invitation.
Language issue? Well, this is probably the biggest stumbling block. Even with the intensive program, you'd have to invest a minimum of nine months into a program to bring up to day one of Army boot-camp.
Then the question comes up....how many people from across the EU would be willing to sign up to this type of deal? There hasn't been any polling to suggest numbers, and this might be a total failure just to consider anyway.
Going beyond the EU....say to allow Thai, or Mexican, or Nigerian individuals to join? It would be a pretty big step. But in this case, I would imagine they'd easily attract 20,000 African men and women each year, if the citizenship was the deal.
Attack on Bus in Lubeck (Friday)
I'll reference bits and pieces of this story from Focus Magazine's notes, from late last night.
The city of Lübeck is up on the northern coastal region of Germany.....probably 40 km NE of Hamburg.
What the cops say that occurred on Friday afternoon is some guy (34-years-old) got up on a bus and started to attack folks with a knife.
Several folks were cut to some degree. The blade in this case (described by the cops) is a kitchen knife. The driver jumped up into action, halting the bus and opening doors (it was a double-bus) for folks to exit.
All total.....with the driver, nine other folks injured to some degree. Some more than others.
The attacker? Well....he'd attempted to set off some type of fire-bomb, and the materials just didn't go off as expected.
In the midst of this.....the driver pulls out the fire extinguisher, and puts out the paper-bag bomb.
Nationality? Well...right off the bat, folks tended to hear he was Persian (Iranian) and they felt this was a terror attack. But this case.....the guy had lived in Germany for fair amount of time (one news group had suggested 20 years). He had become a German citizen.
As Focus laid out the piece.....the guy has been described as suffering from mental health issues.....for a fair amount of time.
Late last night.....the guy's dad said that the guy had severe issues. At some point, he accused his nextdoor neighbors of trying to do harm to him with radiation exposure through the house wall.
So, in the end....there was an attack....by a mentally-degranged guy who happened to be Iranian-German in nature.
Nothing more than that.
The city of Lübeck is up on the northern coastal region of Germany.....probably 40 km NE of Hamburg.
What the cops say that occurred on Friday afternoon is some guy (34-years-old) got up on a bus and started to attack folks with a knife.
Several folks were cut to some degree. The blade in this case (described by the cops) is a kitchen knife. The driver jumped up into action, halting the bus and opening doors (it was a double-bus) for folks to exit.
All total.....with the driver, nine other folks injured to some degree. Some more than others.
The attacker? Well....he'd attempted to set off some type of fire-bomb, and the materials just didn't go off as expected.
In the midst of this.....the driver pulls out the fire extinguisher, and puts out the paper-bag bomb.
Nationality? Well...right off the bat, folks tended to hear he was Persian (Iranian) and they felt this was a terror attack. But this case.....the guy had lived in Germany for fair amount of time (one news group had suggested 20 years). He had become a German citizen.
As Focus laid out the piece.....the guy has been described as suffering from mental health issues.....for a fair amount of time.
Late last night.....the guy's dad said that the guy had severe issues. At some point, he accused his nextdoor neighbors of trying to do harm to him with radiation exposure through the house wall.
So, in the end....there was an attack....by a mentally-degranged guy who happened to be Iranian-German in nature.
Nothing more than that.
Friday, July 20, 2018
Minimum Wage Discussion
Most Germans don't think in this fashion....but for the practice of discussion....there are 401 districts, city-states, and independent cities. In a normal year, if you watched the news or chat-forums on TV....you might see a map laid out with this 401 division situation....maybe three or four times a year. I admit, it's rare.
So the Linke Party did something interesting.....they made a request to the federal German government and asked....does the minimum wage (made for the entire nation) really work for the 401 districts?
Well....no.
There are 64 districts where the minimum wage is not enough, and you'd have to go and ask for Hartz IV (welfare) to survive. The chief places of failure? Major metropolitan areas.
What happens now? Mostly nothing. But I would imagine that the Linke Party will pick this and try to focus major changes in 2019, to push the minimum wage up....maybe 10-percent....maybe even 20-percent.
For the factual side of this....1,498 is considered the minimum wage point right now. In dollars? Roughly 1,700 dollars.
Just something to think about.
So the Linke Party did something interesting.....they made a request to the federal German government and asked....does the minimum wage (made for the entire nation) really work for the 401 districts?
Well....no.
There are 64 districts where the minimum wage is not enough, and you'd have to go and ask for Hartz IV (welfare) to survive. The chief places of failure? Major metropolitan areas.
What happens now? Mostly nothing. But I would imagine that the Linke Party will pick this and try to focus major changes in 2019, to push the minimum wage up....maybe 10-percent....maybe even 20-percent.
For the factual side of this....1,498 is considered the minimum wage point right now. In dollars? Roughly 1,700 dollars.
Just something to think about.
Libya in the News
If you follow the EU on its discussions of mass migration....there are continual mentions of EU reception centers, which have to be non-EU soil (at least in their vision of things). I noticed that N-TV (German commercial news network) brought this up with a report this morning.
Their news? Fajes al-Sarradsch....current leader of Libya....just plain said NO on the idea of EU reception centers in Libya.
He even noted that offering cash on the table won't work. His blunt words were: "The EU should "talk to the countries from which people come and put pressure".
Course, he did suggest that EU politicians are welcome to come and visit Libya. I think he'd like for more of a face-to-face situation, with trade deals and such.
As for the question of where these EU reception centers will be? It's hard to imagine any African country volunteering for this unless there is a massive amount of money put on the table. In terms of 'massive'? I'm thinking more than two billion Euro a year.
On paper, this idea gets discussed a lot, but in reality? No one seems to be willing to go and take this concept.
Their news? Fajes al-Sarradsch....current leader of Libya....just plain said NO on the idea of EU reception centers in Libya.
He even noted that offering cash on the table won't work. His blunt words were: "The EU should "talk to the countries from which people come and put pressure".
Course, he did suggest that EU politicians are welcome to come and visit Libya. I think he'd like for more of a face-to-face situation, with trade deals and such.
As for the question of where these EU reception centers will be? It's hard to imagine any African country volunteering for this unless there is a massive amount of money put on the table. In terms of 'massive'? I'm thinking more than two billion Euro a year.
On paper, this idea gets discussed a lot, but in reality? No one seems to be willing to go and take this concept.
The Empathy Lost Sory
There is a piece over at ARD (German public TV, Channel One) which caught my attention this morning.
If you follow German politics, 2018 is shaping up as a big year for Bavaria because of the state election scheduled in the fall. The AfD Party is looming big on the landscape because they are anticipating taking a minimum of twelve percent of the vote. The SPD? They will likely be eclipsed by the Green Party. Surrounding all of this....is the CSU folks who are trying to hype their solutions on immigration enough to slow down the AfD gains.
So, the Council President of the Evangelical Church has gotten 'hyped-up' (my word for it) and discussed the poor nature of responsibility shown by the CSU on the refugee problems.
Heinrich Bedford-Strohm, more or less, has said that the CSU is being rather 'one-sided'. He says this is all to block CSU voters from walking away to the AfD, and it's a poor political strategy. In saying this....he's more or less suggesting that having more AfD support and votes is a really positive thing.
All of this leads to a quote given....."empathy is lost".....suggesting that the CSU has lost track of it's empathy.
I sat and pondered his statement for a while. Typically, empathy means that one side ONLY has lost it's position and can't share/understand the feelings of the other side. After spending the last five years observing German society and the often one-sided debate on immigration....it is apparent that both sides have lost empathy. Bedford-Strohm, in this case, has lost understanding of the people who are negative about migration and immigration.
While taking the high road....his use of the fight to preserve empathy...seems marginal. You can't demand empathy, if you aren't empathetic yourself.
So you look at the political situation that has developed. The AfD is standing there as the only counter-weight to mass migration. No other party takes that position. Every vote for them....is a frustration vote. In this case....if the CSU had not taken the steps or positions noted.....then the AfD today would likely be near 20-to-25 percent and would create a major problem for Bavarian politics. Bedford-Strohm seems to be oblivious to that suggestion, and thinks that a frustration vote is not possible. It might be time for Bedford-Strohm to put on regular clothing and go walk out among non-intellectual types and get a new perception of the frustration factor.
If you follow German politics, 2018 is shaping up as a big year for Bavaria because of the state election scheduled in the fall. The AfD Party is looming big on the landscape because they are anticipating taking a minimum of twelve percent of the vote. The SPD? They will likely be eclipsed by the Green Party. Surrounding all of this....is the CSU folks who are trying to hype their solutions on immigration enough to slow down the AfD gains.
So, the Council President of the Evangelical Church has gotten 'hyped-up' (my word for it) and discussed the poor nature of responsibility shown by the CSU on the refugee problems.
Heinrich Bedford-Strohm, more or less, has said that the CSU is being rather 'one-sided'. He says this is all to block CSU voters from walking away to the AfD, and it's a poor political strategy. In saying this....he's more or less suggesting that having more AfD support and votes is a really positive thing.
All of this leads to a quote given....."empathy is lost".....suggesting that the CSU has lost track of it's empathy.
I sat and pondered his statement for a while. Typically, empathy means that one side ONLY has lost it's position and can't share/understand the feelings of the other side. After spending the last five years observing German society and the often one-sided debate on immigration....it is apparent that both sides have lost empathy. Bedford-Strohm, in this case, has lost understanding of the people who are negative about migration and immigration.
While taking the high road....his use of the fight to preserve empathy...seems marginal. You can't demand empathy, if you aren't empathetic yourself.
So you look at the political situation that has developed. The AfD is standing there as the only counter-weight to mass migration. No other party takes that position. Every vote for them....is a frustration vote. In this case....if the CSU had not taken the steps or positions noted.....then the AfD today would likely be near 20-to-25 percent and would create a major problem for Bavarian politics. Bedford-Strohm seems to be oblivious to that suggestion, and thinks that a frustration vote is not possible. It might be time for Bedford-Strohm to put on regular clothing and go walk out among non-intellectual types and get a new perception of the frustration factor.
Emancipation Story
Last night, I sat and watched the late news on ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One). They came to do a four-minute report over an odd topic.....emancipation of refugee women.
To describe this in a simple way....the Germans had set up workshops (discussion groups), and in some fashion....they led the group through a German woman's view of the world. Changes weren't immediate, but you can sense that over a year's period....the perception of these women had changed.
These were women from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Yes, they were still Muslims for the most part, but they had found that they had a 'voice' and could speak for themselves. Any attempt by their man to physically discipline them....wasn't going to work anymore.
For one woman, it was like a whole new world opened up and she appreciates this opportunity to live in Germany.
This program, which I doubt has any real cost....ought to be replicated throughout Germany.
To describe this in a simple way....the Germans had set up workshops (discussion groups), and in some fashion....they led the group through a German woman's view of the world. Changes weren't immediate, but you can sense that over a year's period....the perception of these women had changed.
These were women from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Yes, they were still Muslims for the most part, but they had found that they had a 'voice' and could speak for themselves. Any attempt by their man to physically discipline them....wasn't going to work anymore.
For one woman, it was like a whole new world opened up and she appreciates this opportunity to live in Germany.
This program, which I doubt has any real cost....ought to be replicated throughout Germany.
Thursday, July 19, 2018
On the TV Tax
I noticed a short piece by ARD (German commercial TV, Channel One) today....on the TV tax business.
The German Supreme Court system had a case handed to it. Some folks, who own a second house, or second apartment/condo....were upset about having to pay the TV twice (one for each residence)....so they sued the government. What the court came to say....by the law....it was totally legal to go after the tv tax for the 2nd residence.
What you find in Germany, to a small degree....are people who have taken up employment (mostly for a promotion or higher pay) and they'd like to keep their current dream home. So they pack up on a Monday morning, and drive two to three hours to their job, and stay there until Friday night.....at some second residence (maybe they rent....maybe they own). Then they return home.
Most will point out that they can only be at one location. But the tax is written in a way to say that if you own two houses....you pay the tv tax twice.
What if you didn't have a radio or TV at the second location? Well....they constructed the tv tax to cover media only....so you would likely have a computer, and thus you'd have connectivity to reach the public tv options.
At some point, I expect the AfD Party to pick up this topic and select an opposing alternate position....probably to massively downsize public TV and maybe eliminate either ARD or ZDF (more likely to be ZDF out of Mainz).
Among the youth of Germany (age 15 to 25)....this whole public tv tax thing is a continual topic and most don't see a reason to continue support for it. Its just a matter of time before this becomes a topic ten subject, and falls into a campaign season.
The German Supreme Court system had a case handed to it. Some folks, who own a second house, or second apartment/condo....were upset about having to pay the TV twice (one for each residence)....so they sued the government. What the court came to say....by the law....it was totally legal to go after the tv tax for the 2nd residence.
What you find in Germany, to a small degree....are people who have taken up employment (mostly for a promotion or higher pay) and they'd like to keep their current dream home. So they pack up on a Monday morning, and drive two to three hours to their job, and stay there until Friday night.....at some second residence (maybe they rent....maybe they own). Then they return home.
Most will point out that they can only be at one location. But the tax is written in a way to say that if you own two houses....you pay the tv tax twice.
What if you didn't have a radio or TV at the second location? Well....they constructed the tv tax to cover media only....so you would likely have a computer, and thus you'd have connectivity to reach the public tv options.
At some point, I expect the AfD Party to pick up this topic and select an opposing alternate position....probably to massively downsize public TV and maybe eliminate either ARD or ZDF (more likely to be ZDF out of Mainz).
Among the youth of Germany (age 15 to 25)....this whole public tv tax thing is a continual topic and most don't see a reason to continue support for it. Its just a matter of time before this becomes a topic ten subject, and falls into a campaign season.
How AfD Attracts More Voters
One of the major weaknesses that I've pointed out over and over about the AfD Party in Germany....is that they are a one-topic party (anti-immigration). Today, I was reading through Focus (the German news magazine) and they brought up this one short topic. AfD has apparently selected another area which might attract some additional German voters.....car traffic in German cities.
What AfD is discussing now....is a national policy over car rules in German cities (basically taking the control away from the cities).
So you stand back and view the whole story. Various reports have now pushed cities to work on anti-diesel car rules. This all leads back to strict limits for nitrogen oxide.
AfD is picking up the topic of supporting diesel car owners. You can figure with around 14-million diesel cars in Germany.....you have to figure that at least half of them are furious at Berlin leadership and the environmental rules being forced upon them.
Last month....the AfD Party put forward the resolution to stand against "senseless driving bans".
The party also started talking about the measurement stations in major cities, and how they might be measuring in a poor manner. Their hype is that the stations have been politically constructed in a way that maximizes the collection of data, and you get absolute max value of nitrogen oxide.
As they point out, if you put the measurement station four to six meters further away....the numbers decrease by 40-percent.
A two-topic political party? Actually, they are simply picking topics that are none of the other Berlin parties will discuss or support. They are in some ways.....the alternate solution to politics. By voting AfD, to support your frustration....you send a message. I admit, it might not be that wise, but in the current environment of political frustrations, it's the only way to 'fire' someone in politics.
If they hyped this message....would their numbers go up? I might go and suggest that they could pick up another three to five percent easily, because of the diesel car owner's frustration over their problem.
What AfD is discussing now....is a national policy over car rules in German cities (basically taking the control away from the cities).
So you stand back and view the whole story. Various reports have now pushed cities to work on anti-diesel car rules. This all leads back to strict limits for nitrogen oxide.
AfD is picking up the topic of supporting diesel car owners. You can figure with around 14-million diesel cars in Germany.....you have to figure that at least half of them are furious at Berlin leadership and the environmental rules being forced upon them.
Last month....the AfD Party put forward the resolution to stand against "senseless driving bans".
The party also started talking about the measurement stations in major cities, and how they might be measuring in a poor manner. Their hype is that the stations have been politically constructed in a way that maximizes the collection of data, and you get absolute max value of nitrogen oxide.
As they point out, if you put the measurement station four to six meters further away....the numbers decrease by 40-percent.
A two-topic political party? Actually, they are simply picking topics that are none of the other Berlin parties will discuss or support. They are in some ways.....the alternate solution to politics. By voting AfD, to support your frustration....you send a message. I admit, it might not be that wise, but in the current environment of political frustrations, it's the only way to 'fire' someone in politics.
If they hyped this message....would their numbers go up? I might go and suggest that they could pick up another three to five percent easily, because of the diesel car owner's frustration over their problem.
Will the Real Scientists Please Stand Up?
It is an amusing story, and I will try to spare you the four-page version of news piece told by ARD (German public TV, Channel One).
So the headline of this piece is over 5,000 German professors/scientists....associated with German university operations.....have published research papers....published by....publishers. The suggestion here is that a group of disrespected publishers...mostly online specialist journals have grown in the past two decades. They need new material every month, and these 5,000 German scientists are participating in fraudulent research (or this is what the experts say to ARD).
The suggestion here is that these commercial journals are not in alignment with standard rules of 'scientific quality assurance'.
The hint by ARD? Almost anybody can publish what they want. You don't have to be a real scientist, nor does your work have to have absolute values on the data collected.
So the news folks now introduce the term "pirate publishing", which has been around for probably decades. I might even go and suggest that it existed in the 1800s as well.
About eight years ago, I sat and watched an interview where a US professor talked to this issue, and he laid out the basic problem. To be recognized in any university setting....you needed to state for your cause (your promotion) that you got published. We aren't talking about once every three years.....but articles being published several times each year. Even if this were just a 300-word essay piece talking to one minor topic....it's being noted in print.
These 5,000 German professors or scientists? They are concerned with their future promotion, and this science report is their method of getting noted.
The new problem which is being laid out.....who is a scientist and who is not. You can see a potential 'battle' erupting here over some accreditation that the government may have to hand out and say that these people are scientists, and these other people are not scientists. In a way, it's a bit amusing to see this scientist landscape being laid out and how the government may be the presented solver of this 'problem' (if it is a problem).
The odds that half the material being presented in real science journals might be faked....by real scientists? Oh.....let's not bring that topic up. That would just freak out the Germans even more.
So the headline of this piece is over 5,000 German professors/scientists....associated with German university operations.....have published research papers....published by....publishers. The suggestion here is that a group of disrespected publishers...mostly online specialist journals have grown in the past two decades. They need new material every month, and these 5,000 German scientists are participating in fraudulent research (or this is what the experts say to ARD).
The suggestion here is that these commercial journals are not in alignment with standard rules of 'scientific quality assurance'.
The hint by ARD? Almost anybody can publish what they want. You don't have to be a real scientist, nor does your work have to have absolute values on the data collected.
So the news folks now introduce the term "pirate publishing", which has been around for probably decades. I might even go and suggest that it existed in the 1800s as well.
About eight years ago, I sat and watched an interview where a US professor talked to this issue, and he laid out the basic problem. To be recognized in any university setting....you needed to state for your cause (your promotion) that you got published. We aren't talking about once every three years.....but articles being published several times each year. Even if this were just a 300-word essay piece talking to one minor topic....it's being noted in print.
These 5,000 German professors or scientists? They are concerned with their future promotion, and this science report is their method of getting noted.
The new problem which is being laid out.....who is a scientist and who is not. You can see a potential 'battle' erupting here over some accreditation that the government may have to hand out and say that these people are scientists, and these other people are not scientists. In a way, it's a bit amusing to see this scientist landscape being laid out and how the government may be the presented solver of this 'problem' (if it is a problem).
The odds that half the material being presented in real science journals might be faked....by real scientists? Oh.....let's not bring that topic up. That would just freak out the Germans even more.
The Trade Story
There's a piece from ARD (public German TV, Channel One) which discusses the next step in the tariff 'war'.
The EU now says it'll raise a higher tariff on steel in response to the US tariff. But hidden in the summary, you kinda notice that they are talking about a "steel glut" that has been noticed in Europe (especially in the first half of 2018) and they kinda mention China in the text.
I sat and looked up the import rate of US steel and aluminum into the EU. For the 2016 period....it barely got to one percent of what the EU countries produce. In some ways, if they are hyping the steel glut....it's not pointed much at the US.
But then you get to the tailend of the article, and here....the EU Economic Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, kinda mentions the solution in mind. He carefully says the magic phrase....a free trade agreement.
Yes, you might remember that crazy TTIP agreement that went on for three years in discussions, and then toward the end of 2016....it fell apart. Chief reason? Various pieces of the confidential talks were being released and various groups were talking over this as being negative.
When all this tariff talk by both parties started up....I kinda spoke of the TTIP deal and it basically needs to be brought back onto the table. It's the only way to solve this whole situation.
My humble belief is that BREXIT will occur in March 2019, and the UK will sign some type of massive trade agreement within three months of that day, and it'll be some warning message to the EU. By summer of 2019....I think the EU will be upset over trade numbers with the US and finally admit that a TTIP situation is the only way forward.
The EU now says it'll raise a higher tariff on steel in response to the US tariff. But hidden in the summary, you kinda notice that they are talking about a "steel glut" that has been noticed in Europe (especially in the first half of 2018) and they kinda mention China in the text.
I sat and looked up the import rate of US steel and aluminum into the EU. For the 2016 period....it barely got to one percent of what the EU countries produce. In some ways, if they are hyping the steel glut....it's not pointed much at the US.
But then you get to the tailend of the article, and here....the EU Economic Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, kinda mentions the solution in mind. He carefully says the magic phrase....a free trade agreement.
Yes, you might remember that crazy TTIP agreement that went on for three years in discussions, and then toward the end of 2016....it fell apart. Chief reason? Various pieces of the confidential talks were being released and various groups were talking over this as being negative.
When all this tariff talk by both parties started up....I kinda spoke of the TTIP deal and it basically needs to be brought back onto the table. It's the only way to solve this whole situation.
My humble belief is that BREXIT will occur in March 2019, and the UK will sign some type of massive trade agreement within three months of that day, and it'll be some warning message to the EU. By summer of 2019....I think the EU will be upset over trade numbers with the US and finally admit that a TTIP situation is the only way forward.
TV From Last Night
I sat last night and watched my regional public TV channel (HR). They ran a news documentary piece entitled: The Girl and the Refugee (produced in the last couple of months by SWR).
They went and laid out the entire story of the Kandel murder episode (27 December 2017) with the German teenage girl dead (17 years old) and the culprit.....a Afghan teenage boy (16 years old). His age is disputed, and he might be older.
It is probably one of the better news pieces done because they go and tell a story that covers not just this murder, but the politics behind everything....the efforts in Darmstadt to counter violence....and how behavior has to be changed (on the part of the young incoming male immigrants).
In the midst of the video (about 45 minutes long), you get the hint from one individual that parents are now trying to discourage their teenage daughters from any traveling into Darmstadt....suggesting it is too dangerous now for teen girls.
If you click on the link I put up, you can watch the piece (in German). It was good journalism and lays out the problems within the German immigration situation.
They went and laid out the entire story of the Kandel murder episode (27 December 2017) with the German teenage girl dead (17 years old) and the culprit.....a Afghan teenage boy (16 years old). His age is disputed, and he might be older.
It is probably one of the better news pieces done because they go and tell a story that covers not just this murder, but the politics behind everything....the efforts in Darmstadt to counter violence....and how behavior has to be changed (on the part of the young incoming male immigrants).
In the midst of the video (about 45 minutes long), you get the hint from one individual that parents are now trying to discourage their teenage daughters from any traveling into Darmstadt....suggesting it is too dangerous now for teen girls.
If you click on the link I put up, you can watch the piece (in German). It was good journalism and lays out the problems within the German immigration situation.
Wednesday, July 18, 2018
The 25,000 Euro Story
German commercial TV shows are always hunting for the newest reality show angle. RTL started up this new show...."Payday!". The theme is.....some star moderator takes these four German Hartz IV families (on welfare) on a venture deal....giving them each 25,000 Euro to start a new business.
Last night was the first episode. Three of the families appear to be on a slow path to some type of business. The 4th? Well....it was apparent about halfway through the first hour that the boyfriend of this gal (she was the recipient of the 25,000 Euro) was reaching in and using the money for the apartment (new couch, new carpet, new furniture, etc). In fact, she reached some stage toward the last 15 minutes of the show where the guy had apparently spent half of the 25,0000. The business idea....yet to take off.
There was some big blow-up at that point, and the guy went out to the car and just sat there for a long while. Then he came back and she wasn't going to let him back in...or at least the show ended with this drama at the door.
It's a weekly show....so they will be back next week to tell the next segment.
The problem with this 25,000 Euro business deal is that most people just don't have experience at planning or being in the middle. The RTL folks did provide experts to help you along but beyond that....a lot of Germans on welfare just don't fit the angle of private entrepreneur.
The curious thing is that just about everybody in Germany wants to do something for the welfare crowd and get them into real work, and a satisfied income. This 25,000 Euro 'test'? It's hard to say if any of the four will succeed or not. I would probably guess that the gal who has seen her start-up money 'disappear'.....probably will not make it. But she's got other problems as well.
Last night was the first episode. Three of the families appear to be on a slow path to some type of business. The 4th? Well....it was apparent about halfway through the first hour that the boyfriend of this gal (she was the recipient of the 25,000 Euro) was reaching in and using the money for the apartment (new couch, new carpet, new furniture, etc). In fact, she reached some stage toward the last 15 minutes of the show where the guy had apparently spent half of the 25,0000. The business idea....yet to take off.
There was some big blow-up at that point, and the guy went out to the car and just sat there for a long while. Then he came back and she wasn't going to let him back in...or at least the show ended with this drama at the door.
It's a weekly show....so they will be back next week to tell the next segment.
The problem with this 25,000 Euro business deal is that most people just don't have experience at planning or being in the middle. The RTL folks did provide experts to help you along but beyond that....a lot of Germans on welfare just don't fit the angle of private entrepreneur.
The curious thing is that just about everybody in Germany wants to do something for the welfare crowd and get them into real work, and a satisfied income. This 25,000 Euro 'test'? It's hard to say if any of the four will succeed or not. I would probably guess that the gal who has seen her start-up money 'disappear'.....probably will not make it. But she's got other problems as well.
More on Sami A
About a week ago, I essayed a piece over a deportation involving Ossama's former driver....Sami A....from German soil to Tunisia, and the German high court spoke up (after he'd landed in Tunisia), that this deporation was NULL and VOID. In other words....the immigration authority moved ahead of schedule and Sami A deserved to be brought to Germany.
Well....the Tunisians....naturally having Sami A in their custody....said 'not so fast, we've to an interrogation to accomplish, and might be charging him'.
So the German court is all pepped up to force the immigration authority to retrieve the guy.
But hold on.....it gets better today.
Focus (the German news magazine) says that the city of Bochum (which the authority within themselves to have him deported) has spoken up and said 'nope, we are lodging a complaint against the administrative court on the order to retrieve the guy.
You see, if any money is spent on retrieving the guy.....that city gets the bill (NOT the federal government or the state government), and they apparently are peeved enough to challenge this whole court process.
What'll happen? I would imagine that Bochum has at least four to six weeks to establish their case before Sami can be retrieved....if the Tunisians will release him. The original court? I don't think they've had a case like this, and they might be surprised that their retrieval order to bring Sami back....got challenged. All of this dramatic stuff....just irks Germans even more.
Well....the Tunisians....naturally having Sami A in their custody....said 'not so fast, we've to an interrogation to accomplish, and might be charging him'.
So the German court is all pepped up to force the immigration authority to retrieve the guy.
But hold on.....it gets better today.
Focus (the German news magazine) says that the city of Bochum (which the authority within themselves to have him deported) has spoken up and said 'nope, we are lodging a complaint against the administrative court on the order to retrieve the guy.
You see, if any money is spent on retrieving the guy.....that city gets the bill (NOT the federal government or the state government), and they apparently are peeved enough to challenge this whole court process.
What'll happen? I would imagine that Bochum has at least four to six weeks to establish their case before Sami can be retrieved....if the Tunisians will release him. The original court? I don't think they've had a case like this, and they might be surprised that their retrieval order to bring Sami back....got challenged. All of this dramatic stuff....just irks Germans even more.
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
EU-Japan Trade Deal
It was discussed to some extent last night on the ARD (public TV, Channel One) news, and it might be worth discussing for a minute.
The EU has concluded a trade agreement with Japan. Unlike the path of the US-EU trade agreement in 2016, which ultimately failed....this one moved by. I would suggest that the EU desperately needed to conclude it and use it as their argument against the tariff situation with the US.
Plus-up for Japan? No tariffs on e-bikes or bicycles. Note, this starts in 2019.
Cars from Japan? The tariffs coming off for them? Not for another seven years.
Trade currently, before this takes place? Japan imports (in services and items) roughly 75 billion Euro. The EU imports around 65 to 70 billion Euro (depending on who you get the numbers from). Total, if you use numbers from 2015, around 150 billion Euro in transit.
Will this treaty change much of anything? That's really the big question. The spin here is that this Japanese deal will help in minor ways to counter the US tariff business, and that will eventually force the US to the table.
The amusing thing to the deal? According to various news sources, the deal removed various tariffs in effect. There's just not very much left on the table between Japan and the EU for tariffs.....which is what President Trump advocated for in the first place. I sat and watched one interview last night where a German union representative was negative over the EU-Japan deal because the impact of lost jobs sits there in plain sight, and that the tariffs 'protected' certain jobs.
The EU has concluded a trade agreement with Japan. Unlike the path of the US-EU trade agreement in 2016, which ultimately failed....this one moved by. I would suggest that the EU desperately needed to conclude it and use it as their argument against the tariff situation with the US.
Plus-up for Japan? No tariffs on e-bikes or bicycles. Note, this starts in 2019.
Cars from Japan? The tariffs coming off for them? Not for another seven years.
Trade currently, before this takes place? Japan imports (in services and items) roughly 75 billion Euro. The EU imports around 65 to 70 billion Euro (depending on who you get the numbers from). Total, if you use numbers from 2015, around 150 billion Euro in transit.
Will this treaty change much of anything? That's really the big question. The spin here is that this Japanese deal will help in minor ways to counter the US tariff business, and that will eventually force the US to the table.
The amusing thing to the deal? According to various news sources, the deal removed various tariffs in effect. There's just not very much left on the table between Japan and the EU for tariffs.....which is what President Trump advocated for in the first place. I sat and watched one interview last night where a German union representative was negative over the EU-Japan deal because the impact of lost jobs sits there in plain sight, and that the tariffs 'protected' certain jobs.
On the Topic of Safe Countries
The term 'safe country' often gets brought up in the German news, and I'll reference a ARD (public TV, Channel One) article from last night, to talk about this topic.
Once one comes into Germany and says he wants asylum....there's paperwork and an evaluation. At some point, they hit a avenue where the question is.....is it safe or dangerous in their homeland? If it's noted on the chart as dangerous.....they advance on. If the chart says safe, their application more or less stops right there, and it fails.
This topic comes up because of the deportation of the alleged Islamist Sami A. to Tunisia. Somewhere in the process, Tunisia has been classified as 'safe'.
Right now, the German government is working to make Algeria, Morocco and Georgia safe as well. Some folks are working to reverse this....just based on human rights (as seen in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia).
About two years ago, there was a piece that discussed this safe and dangerous situation, and how you were just about guaranteed a 90-percent of passing if your homeland was dangerous, and a 90-percent chance of failing if your homeland was safe. If you had a degree or a skill in your background, then you could go the route of an immigrant and have a better chance of passing the visa.
The negative of this? People are basing some 'escape' from their homeland, with various scenarios attached to smugglers, with the understanding (whether valid or not) that it's virtually guaranteed that if they just make it to border of Germany....they get a visa. This is not reality. But they've reached a point where 'something is better than nothing'. In their mind, the idea of the paperwork and evaluation simply doesn't change matters.
Once one comes into Germany and says he wants asylum....there's paperwork and an evaluation. At some point, they hit a avenue where the question is.....is it safe or dangerous in their homeland? If it's noted on the chart as dangerous.....they advance on. If the chart says safe, their application more or less stops right there, and it fails.
This topic comes up because of the deportation of the alleged Islamist Sami A. to Tunisia. Somewhere in the process, Tunisia has been classified as 'safe'.
Right now, the German government is working to make Algeria, Morocco and Georgia safe as well. Some folks are working to reverse this....just based on human rights (as seen in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia).
About two years ago, there was a piece that discussed this safe and dangerous situation, and how you were just about guaranteed a 90-percent of passing if your homeland was dangerous, and a 90-percent chance of failing if your homeland was safe. If you had a degree or a skill in your background, then you could go the route of an immigrant and have a better chance of passing the visa.
The negative of this? People are basing some 'escape' from their homeland, with various scenarios attached to smugglers, with the understanding (whether valid or not) that it's virtually guaranteed that if they just make it to border of Germany....they get a visa. This is not reality. But they've reached a point where 'something is better than nothing'. In their mind, the idea of the paperwork and evaluation simply doesn't change matters.
A Parking Story over Wiesbaden
In my local news....from around Wiesbaden, I noticed a short article which got folks hyped up in the city.
Apparently, the city council folks came to vote and agree on some measure around the Kurt Schumacher Ring of Wiesbaden. For those who might have been stationed around city in years past and need a refresher to the 'ring', the city has two 'rings' (fast-access streets, four-lanes). There's the inner ring (the Bismarkring), and then this outer ring which has like three names (depending on which part of it you are traveling). The Kurt Schumacher Ring is on the far west end of town...maybe 1.5 km in length.
So with all this hype of pollution and bad air, some Green Party guys convinced enough folks to vote on the idea of removing 150 parking spaces along Schumacher Ring. Their idea....if there is no parking there, then you won't have cars around to pollute. If you've ever been around Wiesbaden, you would know of the ever increasing issue over finding parking for your car. The city just doesn't have enough parking for all the people who live in the city.
Naturally, locals who live around the ring will stand up and ask.....where the heck would you want us to park? So in some amusing way, the city council and this Green effort....has created a case where folks might be driving for an extra five to fifteen minutes....going into other neighborhoods....to find parking. In a way, they probably doubled up pollution numbers.
What happens now? For a year or so, they will play out this decrease parking and decrease pollution game, and then come to admit that the numbers didn't go down on pollution, and it's a mystery why air in the city isn't cleaner.....then resolve things by putting the 150 parking spots back into action.
Apparently, the city council folks came to vote and agree on some measure around the Kurt Schumacher Ring of Wiesbaden. For those who might have been stationed around city in years past and need a refresher to the 'ring', the city has two 'rings' (fast-access streets, four-lanes). There's the inner ring (the Bismarkring), and then this outer ring which has like three names (depending on which part of it you are traveling). The Kurt Schumacher Ring is on the far west end of town...maybe 1.5 km in length.
So with all this hype of pollution and bad air, some Green Party guys convinced enough folks to vote on the idea of removing 150 parking spaces along Schumacher Ring. Their idea....if there is no parking there, then you won't have cars around to pollute. If you've ever been around Wiesbaden, you would know of the ever increasing issue over finding parking for your car. The city just doesn't have enough parking for all the people who live in the city.
Naturally, locals who live around the ring will stand up and ask.....where the heck would you want us to park? So in some amusing way, the city council and this Green effort....has created a case where folks might be driving for an extra five to fifteen minutes....going into other neighborhoods....to find parking. In a way, they probably doubled up pollution numbers.
What happens now? For a year or so, they will play out this decrease parking and decrease pollution game, and then come to admit that the numbers didn't go down on pollution, and it's a mystery why air in the city isn't cleaner.....then resolve things by putting the 150 parking spots back into action.
Monday, July 16, 2018
On Emergency Room Costs
I was reading through health-related news this morning in Germany, and came to one short piece by Focus magazine.
Doctors and hospitals are getting to a point of frustration with German consumers coming to the emergency room, with non-emergency situations. The way it works here....you show up....present your health card, and the charge goes to the insurance company.
What is suggested here in the article, which had an interview session with the German Chairman of the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV)....Andreas Gassen....is this idea of a fee when you appear (coming out of your pocket, not the pocket of the insurance company).
The amount? Unknown. He doesn't really want to suggest how much.
The problem I see is that you might go and suggest forty Euro (roughly $50), and folks would show up and say that they don't have it, and expect you to still provide service (which they'd have to).
Some folks won't care, and just pay the fee. I have my doubts that a fee would really change much of anything.
The odds of this fee occurring? There would have to be some study done to show cause and effect, and to suggest a basic level of cost. So far, this is just simply talk.
Doctors and hospitals are getting to a point of frustration with German consumers coming to the emergency room, with non-emergency situations. The way it works here....you show up....present your health card, and the charge goes to the insurance company.
What is suggested here in the article, which had an interview session with the German Chairman of the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV)....Andreas Gassen....is this idea of a fee when you appear (coming out of your pocket, not the pocket of the insurance company).
The amount? Unknown. He doesn't really want to suggest how much.
The problem I see is that you might go and suggest forty Euro (roughly $50), and folks would show up and say that they don't have it, and expect you to still provide service (which they'd have to).
Some folks won't care, and just pay the fee. I have my doubts that a fee would really change much of anything.
The odds of this fee occurring? There would have to be some study done to show cause and effect, and to suggest a basic level of cost. So far, this is just simply talk.
Sunday, July 15, 2018
This German Harley-Davidson Story
I essayed a piece on Friday, and it's been on my mind. The basic story is that a Berlin-city team (they work for the city) that tries to entice business operations to move into Berlin.....wrote up an invitational letter to Harley-Davidson, and encouraged them to make their home in Berlin. The simple odds here? Toss in taxation and cost of living....one in a million.
But I've sat for a number of hours trying to imagine how this would work.
Imagine the Harley-Davidson crew coming in, and setting up the factory, and hiring up the first 300 assembly-line people....all Germans.
So on day one, you can imagine the German machinists and engineer-detail people looking at the master plan and parts on the floor.
After a while, young Hans says to the American 'chef'....well....we could fix this problem. 'What problem' responds the American chef? Well...your motorcycle is built wrong, and this change on the master plan would fix this problem....pointing at the front assembly.
Then quickly.....Manfred would speak up....well, yes of course, and there's this other problem here...pointing at the clutch assembly. Manfred notes in quick detail that two small changes would fix this problem.
Then quickly, Ernst would get all excited and talk about the stupid way that the brake-assembly is situated and that he could design a much better brake in twelve hours.
Suddenly....the American Harley 'chef' would stop everyone. He would say, "Listen guys, this is a Harley, and we have standards. We don't want a Germanized Harley-Davidson. I absolutely forbid you fixing or changing the master plan."
Weeks go by, and without saying much....Ernst, Manfred, Hans and a dozen others....have quietly modified the Harley with the changes. These Germanized bikes start to go out. A year later....the American 'chef' is at some Harley meeting in Hong Kong, and everyone is all hyped up about this one Harley-Davidson bike made in Berlin. The boss can't understand why. The bikers are showing him the improvements and wonders of the new bike. Shocking as it sounds....some have ridden their Germanized Harleys for six months straight, and NOT a single breakdown.
The boss goes back to Berlin...all frustrated. Don't you people realize what you've done, is the comment thrown to the team. You've gone and made Harley-Davidson into a bike of perfection. We were never supposed to be that kind of bike.
Ernst, Manfred, Hans and the others....all have tears coming down. It was the best bike ever assembled.
But I've sat for a number of hours trying to imagine how this would work.
Imagine the Harley-Davidson crew coming in, and setting up the factory, and hiring up the first 300 assembly-line people....all Germans.
So on day one, you can imagine the German machinists and engineer-detail people looking at the master plan and parts on the floor.
After a while, young Hans says to the American 'chef'....well....we could fix this problem. 'What problem' responds the American chef? Well...your motorcycle is built wrong, and this change on the master plan would fix this problem....pointing at the front assembly.
Then quickly.....Manfred would speak up....well, yes of course, and there's this other problem here...pointing at the clutch assembly. Manfred notes in quick detail that two small changes would fix this problem.
Then quickly, Ernst would get all excited and talk about the stupid way that the brake-assembly is situated and that he could design a much better brake in twelve hours.
Suddenly....the American Harley 'chef' would stop everyone. He would say, "Listen guys, this is a Harley, and we have standards. We don't want a Germanized Harley-Davidson. I absolutely forbid you fixing or changing the master plan."
Weeks go by, and without saying much....Ernst, Manfred, Hans and a dozen others....have quietly modified the Harley with the changes. These Germanized bikes start to go out. A year later....the American 'chef' is at some Harley meeting in Hong Kong, and everyone is all hyped up about this one Harley-Davidson bike made in Berlin. The boss can't understand why. The bikers are showing him the improvements and wonders of the new bike. Shocking as it sounds....some have ridden their Germanized Harleys for six months straight, and NOT a single breakdown.
The boss goes back to Berlin...all frustrated. Don't you people realize what you've done, is the comment thrown to the team. You've gone and made Harley-Davidson into a bike of perfection. We were never supposed to be that kind of bike.
Ernst, Manfred, Hans and the others....all have tears coming down. It was the best bike ever assembled.
The 'Good' Putin
N-TV (the German commercial news network) ran a piece this morning, which I found interesting.
The hype? The polling organization....YouGov....went and did a poll on 'risk to world peace'.
The German public says (roughly two-thirds of them) that President Trump is MORE of a risk than Russian boss Vladimir Putin. The same group hinted that Putin is just all plussed-up on points of being sympathetic and competent.
I would imagine that Putin is sitting there and talking to the KGB chief....wondering....what the heck happened here? I used to be the grand enemy of Germans, and blasted daily by the German public news media.
The KGB guy takes a deep breathe, and say: 'Boss, Trump has all this public relations business going on....Twitter talk.....hyping fake news. And us? Well....people are starting to talk about in a positive way....the 'nice-Putin'. The Kremlin souvenir shop is selling your signed copies of the picture with you on the horse with no shirt, and it's a big-money-maker.'
Putin then responds angrily: 'Damit, don't the Germans know who I really am? Donald isn't near as bad as me.'
So you sit back and ponder over this YouGov poll and what this really means. The blunt truth? Well....German public news works hard to convey a message. In a few months, as exports to the US lessen and business numbers drop slightly....they will have to figure a way to convey that Trump's tariff talk didn't have real effect anticipated.
Then when Trump and Putin reach lesser military tensions....the same news media will have to be creative to say that this lesser period....is really more.
At some point, a few Germans will wise up and suggest that believability in news.....is a problem.
The hype? The polling organization....YouGov....went and did a poll on 'risk to world peace'.
The German public says (roughly two-thirds of them) that President Trump is MORE of a risk than Russian boss Vladimir Putin. The same group hinted that Putin is just all plussed-up on points of being sympathetic and competent.
I would imagine that Putin is sitting there and talking to the KGB chief....wondering....what the heck happened here? I used to be the grand enemy of Germans, and blasted daily by the German public news media.
The KGB guy takes a deep breathe, and say: 'Boss, Trump has all this public relations business going on....Twitter talk.....hyping fake news. And us? Well....people are starting to talk about in a positive way....the 'nice-Putin'. The Kremlin souvenir shop is selling your signed copies of the picture with you on the horse with no shirt, and it's a big-money-maker.'
Putin then responds angrily: 'Damit, don't the Germans know who I really am? Donald isn't near as bad as me.'
So you sit back and ponder over this YouGov poll and what this really means. The blunt truth? Well....German public news works hard to convey a message. In a few months, as exports to the US lessen and business numbers drop slightly....they will have to figure a way to convey that Trump's tariff talk didn't have real effect anticipated.
Then when Trump and Putin reach lesser military tensions....the same news media will have to be creative to say that this lesser period....is really more.
At some point, a few Germans will wise up and suggest that believability in news.....is a problem.
The Deportee Story
I sat and watched an N-TV (German commercial news) report this morning.
The topic? In the first five months of 2018....the German federal cops attempted to deport 23,900 folks. I say attempted here....because as N-TV tells the story....only 11,100 actually left.
Yes, roughly every other person who was supposed to deport....never left Germany.
Reasons? They go in various directions. In some cases (150 of them)....the pilot of the airline which was supposed to take the guy as a passenger....refused to do it. In some cases, the deportee put up resistance, and they returned him to a holding point.
The problem here is that this information gets out into the public, then you have a fair sum of Germans (probably over 50-percent) who get all furious because the system appears to them to be 'failing'. So then they'd turn and suggest that they'd like to hold someone responsible (you know....fire them)....but they can't really wrap their hands around who to fire. The Chancellor? Well...no, she's really not handling much of this. The Interior Minister? The Justice Minister? BamF Chief?
The other side of this is that you have some guy who gets dragged through all the bureaucratic drills, told over and over....he's going to be deported. Then the cops come and the guy packs up his bags. Then this last 24 to 72 hours....waiting on the final part of the drill, to find out that the deportation on this moment failed. An adventure like this would bother most folks.
A theme that will get political attention? There are only two elections this year in Germany (Bavaria and Hessen state elections). Next year come a few others....with the EU election. All of this might add up and have some affect within the EU election (a fair number of Germans have relatively little interest in this election).
The topic? In the first five months of 2018....the German federal cops attempted to deport 23,900 folks. I say attempted here....because as N-TV tells the story....only 11,100 actually left.
Yes, roughly every other person who was supposed to deport....never left Germany.
Reasons? They go in various directions. In some cases (150 of them)....the pilot of the airline which was supposed to take the guy as a passenger....refused to do it. In some cases, the deportee put up resistance, and they returned him to a holding point.
The problem here is that this information gets out into the public, then you have a fair sum of Germans (probably over 50-percent) who get all furious because the system appears to them to be 'failing'. So then they'd turn and suggest that they'd like to hold someone responsible (you know....fire them)....but they can't really wrap their hands around who to fire. The Chancellor? Well...no, she's really not handling much of this. The Interior Minister? The Justice Minister? BamF Chief?
The other side of this is that you have some guy who gets dragged through all the bureaucratic drills, told over and over....he's going to be deported. Then the cops come and the guy packs up his bags. Then this last 24 to 72 hours....waiting on the final part of the drill, to find out that the deportation on this moment failed. An adventure like this would bother most folks.
A theme that will get political attention? There are only two elections this year in Germany (Bavaria and Hessen state elections). Next year come a few others....with the EU election. All of this might add up and have some affect within the EU election (a fair number of Germans have relatively little interest in this election).
Saturday, July 14, 2018
The Sami A. Story
It's a short story by Focus Magazine that I picked up today and read through. In a way, it's a bit amusing....in another way, it's sad.
Germany had in it's hands....the former bodyguard of Al Qaeda boss....Osama bin Laden. For a number of months, they debated what to do with him.
At some point recently, they made the decision that he just couldn't stay in Germany. No visa....just deport the guy.
So the deportation exercise started up. Appeals were launched. At some point, it appeared that most appeals were finished, and the German authority put the guy (Sami A.) on a plane to Tunisia.
Well, a German court opened up an appeal and said late yesterday.....he could stay in Germany. But by that point, the guy was sitting in Tunisia, and they are pushing on internal charges of terrorism.
The German court? They say "grossly unlawful and violates fundamental constitutional principles." That court wants the guy retrieved. They've order the state (NRW) to start a retrieval.
Will Tunisia send the guy back? Unknown.
Who screwed up? That's hard to say. The problem is that the German court system is loaded with appeal cases over deportation, and they probably need a specialized court system that ONLY handles deportation episodes.
The odds of the guy ever returning? I think that after Tunisia gets all the insider information that the guy has.....there might be some deal made to return him to Germany. But a regular German looking at this whole court action deal....deportation....with the back-and-forth action? He'd just start shaking his head. This is fairly messed up.
Germany had in it's hands....the former bodyguard of Al Qaeda boss....Osama bin Laden. For a number of months, they debated what to do with him.
At some point recently, they made the decision that he just couldn't stay in Germany. No visa....just deport the guy.
So the deportation exercise started up. Appeals were launched. At some point, it appeared that most appeals were finished, and the German authority put the guy (Sami A.) on a plane to Tunisia.
Well, a German court opened up an appeal and said late yesterday.....he could stay in Germany. But by that point, the guy was sitting in Tunisia, and they are pushing on internal charges of terrorism.
The German court? They say "grossly unlawful and violates fundamental constitutional principles." That court wants the guy retrieved. They've order the state (NRW) to start a retrieval.
Will Tunisia send the guy back? Unknown.
Who screwed up? That's hard to say. The problem is that the German court system is loaded with appeal cases over deportation, and they probably need a specialized court system that ONLY handles deportation episodes.
The odds of the guy ever returning? I think that after Tunisia gets all the insider information that the guy has.....there might be some deal made to return him to Germany. But a regular German looking at this whole court action deal....deportation....with the back-and-forth action? He'd just start shaking his head. This is fairly messed up.
Friday, July 13, 2018
German Harley-Davidson?
I noticed with business news on N-TV today (the commercial news network in Germany) that the Berline city-owned business development agency.....Berlin Partner....had sent a letter to Harley-Davidson boss Matthew Levatich...to emphasize the "dynamic business location Berlin".
The attempt here? To get Harley-Davidson....to move some portion of it's production line into Germany.
Here's the thing. If Harley-Davidson came over....looked at the cost of living in Berlin, and the salary structure....just for one particular line of manufacturing....you'd have to add around 35-percent onto the cost of the bike (where ever it is manufactured today). In fact, with taxes figured in...maybe even closer to 45-percent.
What idiot would do something like that?
Just on taxes alone, it would be pure stupidity. But the idea is to needle Trump. The likely Trump comeback? Getting US company HR people to approach German engineers for jobs in the US....go after their best and brightest.
The attempt here? To get Harley-Davidson....to move some portion of it's production line into Germany.
Here's the thing. If Harley-Davidson came over....looked at the cost of living in Berlin, and the salary structure....just for one particular line of manufacturing....you'd have to add around 35-percent onto the cost of the bike (where ever it is manufactured today). In fact, with taxes figured in...maybe even closer to 45-percent.
What idiot would do something like that?
Just on taxes alone, it would be pure stupidity. But the idea is to needle Trump. The likely Trump comeback? Getting US company HR people to approach German engineers for jobs in the US....go after their best and brightest.
The Afghan Story
I'll reference Deutsche Welle for most of this story.
Over the past months, Germany has expelled a number of folks....some of which were destined to Afghanistan.
So here's this one case....failed visa applicant....23 years old....sent back to Afghanistan. He's found dead in a Kabul hotel on 4 July. Suicide.
Cops say his body was swollen and 'smelled bad'.
Blame has shifted around....some Germans wanting to blame the new German effort to deport failed applicants. The logic is...if they commit suicide after leaving....it can only be the German government's fault.
I know....it's a pretty curious logic.
So I dug through the reasons for the deportation, and the visa failure. It's a curious thing.....the guy had been convicted (not just suspected, but convicted) of theft. He attempted at some point bodily harm on someone. When the cops were attempting to arrest him....he resisted. Other charges sat out there, yet unconvicted....robbery and grievous bodily assault (that usually means that you hurt the other guy a good bit). Then this odd piece stands out....."violation of the narcotics act".
If you had some weed on you.....cops just usually confiscate it and you don't go into the station for some arrest over plain hash or weed. So in this case.....an 'actual' violation of the narcotics act? No one says what drugs, but you'd sit there and imagine that it's not something of a minor nature.
So the question comes up....was he a user too? The Afghan cops give you simple hint....his body is bloated and there's some smell in the air. My guess? He had a fairly serious habit built up, and when they dumped on the plane to Afghanistan.....he had drug dependency issues. He arrives there in Kabul and starts to realize that his access to the good stuff has ended. Reality sets in....he does some final batch of some good drugs....and then commits suicide.
Blaming the government? My question would go back to his drug habit, and how many months in Germany he spent on some drug-high? And if some deportee nominee is so messed up....that you can't deport them....what exactly are you going to do....allow them to roam the streets?
Over the past months, Germany has expelled a number of folks....some of which were destined to Afghanistan.
So here's this one case....failed visa applicant....23 years old....sent back to Afghanistan. He's found dead in a Kabul hotel on 4 July. Suicide.
Cops say his body was swollen and 'smelled bad'.
Blame has shifted around....some Germans wanting to blame the new German effort to deport failed applicants. The logic is...if they commit suicide after leaving....it can only be the German government's fault.
I know....it's a pretty curious logic.
So I dug through the reasons for the deportation, and the visa failure. It's a curious thing.....the guy had been convicted (not just suspected, but convicted) of theft. He attempted at some point bodily harm on someone. When the cops were attempting to arrest him....he resisted. Other charges sat out there, yet unconvicted....robbery and grievous bodily assault (that usually means that you hurt the other guy a good bit). Then this odd piece stands out....."violation of the narcotics act".
If you had some weed on you.....cops just usually confiscate it and you don't go into the station for some arrest over plain hash or weed. So in this case.....an 'actual' violation of the narcotics act? No one says what drugs, but you'd sit there and imagine that it's not something of a minor nature.
So the question comes up....was he a user too? The Afghan cops give you simple hint....his body is bloated and there's some smell in the air. My guess? He had a fairly serious habit built up, and when they dumped on the plane to Afghanistan.....he had drug dependency issues. He arrives there in Kabul and starts to realize that his access to the good stuff has ended. Reality sets in....he does some final batch of some good drugs....and then commits suicide.
Blaming the government? My question would go back to his drug habit, and how many months in Germany he spent on some drug-high? And if some deportee nominee is so messed up....that you can't deport them....what exactly are you going to do....allow them to roam the streets?
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Talking Pensions
German pensions always interest me, and I noticed a short piece on Focus (the German news magazine) today, which talked to the value (or lack of value) of the pensions program.
Focus points out that one out of every two pensions today....are at the poverty level. Their data? It comes from the Federal Ministry of Labor (via a Linke Party request).
For the year 2016 (before taxation)...around 8.6 million German retirees (roughly 50-percent) took home less than 800 Euro a month.
If you went the next step up (to 1,000 Euro), then around 62 percent of German retirees were in that group.
Poverty in Germany? It's generally rated at 781 Euro or less.
What you can generally take out of this problem is that people are standing there at age 65, and trying to imagine their lifestyle upon retirement, and they basically have to find a mini-job, or a secret-job....to make enough to cover costs. If they are below the poverty level, then they walk into the government office to request Hartz IV (welfare) supplements....which the government is forced to pay to support the pension situation.
With a population of 82-million, it's roughly 10-percent of society in this pension situation, and likely bitter over the end-result in life.
Focus points out that one out of every two pensions today....are at the poverty level. Their data? It comes from the Federal Ministry of Labor (via a Linke Party request).
For the year 2016 (before taxation)...around 8.6 million German retirees (roughly 50-percent) took home less than 800 Euro a month.
If you went the next step up (to 1,000 Euro), then around 62 percent of German retirees were in that group.
Poverty in Germany? It's generally rated at 781 Euro or less.
What you can generally take out of this problem is that people are standing there at age 65, and trying to imagine their lifestyle upon retirement, and they basically have to find a mini-job, or a secret-job....to make enough to cover costs. If they are below the poverty level, then they walk into the government office to request Hartz IV (welfare) supplements....which the government is forced to pay to support the pension situation.
With a population of 82-million, it's roughly 10-percent of society in this pension situation, and likely bitter over the end-result in life.
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