Wednesday, July 11, 2018

This Iran Cash Situation

ARD (Channel One, public TV in Germany) had an update on this cash deal being worked by the EU, Germany and Iran.  It appears that various people are discussing how it would work.

To bring you up to an understanding....Iran is in fairly serious jeopardy, with a lack of Euro.  Their explanation?  ARD quotes out of the Bild newspaper....that Iran says that it requires the cash to pass it on to Iranians...who simply don't have regular recognized credit when they travel, they need cash.

Now, it's a pretty believable situation.  It hints....note the word 'hints'....that since it's in Euro....these people would come to Europe to spend it.  Most navie folks would believe the story, and say no problem.

The flip side of this is that they accept Euro in you'd walk in and deposit the money in some Dubai bank, and basically sit on it.  But that's if the private Iranian can get his hand onto the money.  I would have doubts that the money will be readily available, and that only favored 'clients' of the Iranian government will get the Euro cash.

But here's some odd factors. 

First, the German bank discussed....hasn't agreed to this mass withdrawal (would be out of Hamburg, so the news folks claim).

Second, they've gotten rid of the 500-Euro notes so the largest would be the 200-Euro bills.  But would the entire amount be in 200-Euro notes?

Third, you can figure around 1,500,000 notes if the 200-Euro note is the pick.

Where this comes from? EU authorized 'loan' which Iran would pay back.  The odds of the money being paid back?  No one talks much about that.  My guess is that the 300-million Euro story is just 10-percent of the final loan, and I would suspect (my humble opinion) that the EU is told in two years that the loan can't be paid back in a regular way....requiring some kind of discount or donation of some sum of the money.

The odds that the money just disappears in Iran within ten days after delivery?  Well....yeah, you just can't be sure of much over this.  A regular Iranian business guy who has the Iran Rial to buy 100,000 Euro upon delivery?  He might get it all.....he might get 500 Euro.  You just don't know. 

For some reason, I see German comedians picking up this story in a month or two, and doing skits over Iranians with Germans in banking situations. 

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