Merkel and the Compromise

When the smoke cleared last night.....Chancellor Merkel and Interior Minister Seehofer (CSU), had crafted something called the 'Great Compromise' (title given by the German news media).

What ARD (public TV, Channel One) says of the deal?  Basically, the two political parties agree to have asylum seekers coming to the border....to be reviewed.  This apparently will not involve a judge but just members of the border-patrol.  There will be clearly defined cases where the guy or gal will be rejected at the German border. 

The problem with this situation?  Some pro-asylum folks will say it's unfair.  However, if this guy approaching the border has already applied for asylum in France, or Italy....then by the EU agreements....he's already covered, and can't 'shop around'.

So the other part to this compromise is a new border situation with Austria.  It's a sort of blunt way of ensuring that Austria isn't a walk-through community into Bavaria.

The agreement also works up the creation of "transit centers".  The wording is that if you are in the deportee situation....you will be taken to the center and wait until they've got the order fixed and you can be forced out.

The end?  Well.....no. 

Here's the thing....the same compromise agreement has to be presented to the SPD Party, and they've kinda hinted that it won't work (at least via their top leadership).  Causing a split, and the failure of the coalition?  Well....yes.

Would this trigger the SPD to have another internal national vote of agreement?  It might.

The problem I see here is that if the coalition fails in this way....a fresh new election is held. And for the SPD....their numbers since September of 2017 have fallen (around five to six points).  It's possible they could fall another two or three, depending on who they picked as their chancellor candidate.  I suspect they will meet, argue over the compromise, and force themselves to accept it, avoiding another election for now.

Here's the other thing....for Merkel, the stress doesn't end....there's a NATO meeting in ten days, and Trump's theme will be for the US troops to be leaving Germany might be played out.