Monday, July 2, 2018

How to Read All this Monday 'Merkel-Activity'

First, depending on who you get the news from, you will have a different view of the weekend event between the Interior Minister (Seehofer) and the Chancellor (Merkel).  Seehofer says he'll resign Monday evening, if there is no agreement between the two.  So, my observations:

1.  If you read ARD or ZDF news, they still want everyone to know that the fourteen parties at last week's EU emergency meeting all are in support of Merkel's solution.  Well....that is totally false....Poland, Hungary and Czech do not really agree with her solution, and won't be taking any migrants back.  There are other bits and pieces of the public TV story, which don't really fit well, and seem to be political chatter to support the opposition to the CSU or the anti-Seehofer slant.

2. Why haven't all of the sixty-odd Seehofer changes public knowledge?  Unknown, and it's odd that Merkel choose to highlight only one, thus making it public knowledge....but the rest remain a 'secret'.  Go ask ARD or ZDF.....they know nothing.

3.  The talk of the Greens ready to step in to fill the CSU shoes?  They have apparently had talks (internally within the Green Party) and it could probably be done in a single week to form the next coalition.

4.  The Greens getting the Interior Minister position?  Well....I suspect that would be a frustration point to half of the CDU voters and probably trigger future negativity for the CDU to explain the logic.

5.  The hype by the news media to go negative against the CSU in Bavaria?  I've sat and pondered over this and think that the CSU has drawn a strategic point in the sand, which more than 50-percent of CDU and CSU voters support.  In Bavaria alone....I think more than sixty percent of the general public believe that the migration program of Merkel's is screwed-up. 

6.  If the CSU shows up in Hessen in August to campaign and run in the state election?  I think they could take eight points from the CDU, and maybe a point or two from the SPD....not enough to really harm either, but they'd be in the Hessen state assembly.

7.  All of this mess going back to August of 2017 where the news media could have asked sharp questions of the CDU and SPD, forcing them to have a migration policy?  Well.....YEAH.  That's really the amusing part of this story.  They managed to skip this topic entirely, and you have to look over the ARD/ZDF team and their value to the public. 

8.  My guess on Seehofer's resignation?  Yes, it'll happen, and some weakened form of a coalition will occur, which will be an enormous challenge in 2021 for the CDU or SPD (combined) to get 30-percent of the national vote.  I think both parties are fairly doomed at this point in the next election. 

No comments: