Once in a while, I'll essay over taxation in Germany....to demonstrate the level and amount affecting working-class Germans.
So, for the year 2019.....if you make less than 9,169 Euro (single) or 18,338 Euro (married, jointly filing)....you pay zero income taxes.
After that amount, your tax rate increases in a gradual sense. For 14,255 Euro a year (single) your rate will be 14-percent to 24-percent as a 'tax-burden'. Married and jointly? 28,150 Euro.
At around 55,000 Euro, your marginal tax rate goes up to 24-percent (escalating to 42-percent as your salaries increases).
Most Germans have the attitude built into them over the levels, and if they've reached the point of making x-thousand Euro a year.....they will kindly ask or plead to the boss not to increase them to the next level, thus getting them into the 20-to-30-percent tax bracket.
Tax credits? There are various credits that you can apply to your income, although these are not quiet as drawn out as Americans are used to.
Thursday, February 28, 2019
German Census Chatter
When you bring up Census in Germany, it always goes into a comical chat, with most Germans shaking their heads.
You can find records of individual cities having a Census all the way back to 1471 (Nuremberg). You can find the Prussians conducting a Census for Germany from 1844 all the way to the end of WW I (1917). The Weimar Republic restarted the Census in 1919, and it continued through the Nazi years and to the end of WW II.
After the war? Well, the West German government restarted the Census in 1950, and the law was written to have one every five years. 1956 and 1961 Census events occurred, without much trouble.
As you get into the 1970s era.....questions began to arise over the questions used in the Census.....so challenges occurred (either through the Bundestag or via the court system). After 1961's Census....it was nine years before the next Census (1970). More challenges came after that Census....with the next one completed in 1987.
After the reunification in the 1990/1991 era....a unified Germany wanted to complete another Census, and ran into more legal woes (over the questions)......so that got delayed until 2011 (yes, over twenty years later).
Normally, the fight would continue on, with the odds of another Census being 20 to 30 years away because of challenges. However, the EU wrote a law that mandates a Census 'must' occur.
So ARD (public German TV, Channel One) wrote up the story on the latest attempt that will be tried (said to be scheduled for 2021).
To get this approved, both the SPD and CDU political parties (the coalition) agreed to some basic simple rules, and both signed off. The emphasis of the 2021 Census? Employment and housing. NO religious information will be collected.
Why the national trend to be hostile or anti-Census? Germans, in general, hate personal questions being directed at them from strangers or government entities. If you just had three simple questions at the door: (1) how many people reside here, (2) what are their ages, and (3) how many are gainfully employed (either full-time or part-time)......then the bulk of Germans would just accept that. But if you went to the next step and asked if the couple there were married or just living together.....or asking if they had cars....or asked the education level of residents....or asked if you originally grew up in this region, then the line would be crossed and the Census would be viewed as a 'bad thing'.
The truth is that the Census bureaucracy in Germany (the national statistics office) would like to ask 300-odd questions and lay out 15,000 pages of statistical data related to each town....each state....and the nation. They'd like to ask if you have pets (dogs or cats)....if you ride to work via a car or public transportation....if you make more or less than the national salary average....and if you are within 10-percent of your ideal weight. That line of questions would freak out more than half of German society.
As for the national population number changing? No. Zero percent chance of that. German law dictates that you have to go and register as you move into a town (at the city hall). It's not a 'if' situation....it's mandated that you register, and by this method....a city can be reasonably sure (say near 99-percent) that their population data is pretty correct. Homeless folks or unregistered migrants/immigrants? Well....that's the other mystery part to the story, you can't really be sure. In the city of Wiesbaden, there might be 100 folks living under bridges, and simply not registered. In Frankfurt, it might be closer to 1,500 folks living under bridges.
You can find records of individual cities having a Census all the way back to 1471 (Nuremberg). You can find the Prussians conducting a Census for Germany from 1844 all the way to the end of WW I (1917). The Weimar Republic restarted the Census in 1919, and it continued through the Nazi years and to the end of WW II.
After the war? Well, the West German government restarted the Census in 1950, and the law was written to have one every five years. 1956 and 1961 Census events occurred, without much trouble.
As you get into the 1970s era.....questions began to arise over the questions used in the Census.....so challenges occurred (either through the Bundestag or via the court system). After 1961's Census....it was nine years before the next Census (1970). More challenges came after that Census....with the next one completed in 1987.
After the reunification in the 1990/1991 era....a unified Germany wanted to complete another Census, and ran into more legal woes (over the questions)......so that got delayed until 2011 (yes, over twenty years later).
Normally, the fight would continue on, with the odds of another Census being 20 to 30 years away because of challenges. However, the EU wrote a law that mandates a Census 'must' occur.
So ARD (public German TV, Channel One) wrote up the story on the latest attempt that will be tried (said to be scheduled for 2021).
To get this approved, both the SPD and CDU political parties (the coalition) agreed to some basic simple rules, and both signed off. The emphasis of the 2021 Census? Employment and housing. NO religious information will be collected.
Why the national trend to be hostile or anti-Census? Germans, in general, hate personal questions being directed at them from strangers or government entities. If you just had three simple questions at the door: (1) how many people reside here, (2) what are their ages, and (3) how many are gainfully employed (either full-time or part-time)......then the bulk of Germans would just accept that. But if you went to the next step and asked if the couple there were married or just living together.....or asking if they had cars....or asked the education level of residents....or asked if you originally grew up in this region, then the line would be crossed and the Census would be viewed as a 'bad thing'.
The truth is that the Census bureaucracy in Germany (the national statistics office) would like to ask 300-odd questions and lay out 15,000 pages of statistical data related to each town....each state....and the nation. They'd like to ask if you have pets (dogs or cats)....if you ride to work via a car or public transportation....if you make more or less than the national salary average....and if you are within 10-percent of your ideal weight. That line of questions would freak out more than half of German society.
As for the national population number changing? No. Zero percent chance of that. German law dictates that you have to go and register as you move into a town (at the city hall). It's not a 'if' situation....it's mandated that you register, and by this method....a city can be reasonably sure (say near 99-percent) that their population data is pretty correct. Homeless folks or unregistered migrants/immigrants? Well....that's the other mystery part to the story, you can't really be sure. In the city of Wiesbaden, there might be 100 folks living under bridges, and simply not registered. In Frankfurt, it might be closer to 1,500 folks living under bridges.
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Refugee Change
It was a story which came up today via ARD (German public TV, Channel One). The CDU and SPD coalition sat down and agreed upon a change to refugees and where they will reside.
There will be a federal law drafted which will state that once you've entered the approved stage for asylum/immigration (meaning you get the card)....they are going to 'assign' you to a particular German state, and you must reside there for three years before you can move.
An example.....you arrive at some refugee center, wait for four months for the approval of a visa (or possible disapproval), and then an administrative guy is going to review thing and assign you to a state. It's possible to then move from city-1 to city-2, within that state.....but you can't move to a totally separate state (like from Berlin to the Pfalz).
Part of this effort is to prevent 'clumping' where you placed a large group of Syrians in just one single state or region.
The odds of this being challenged in court? I'd say it's a 99-percent chance of a challenge. The fact that you may have four cousins living in Bavaria, and they assign you to Bremen? Well....that's the luck of the system.
There will be a federal law drafted which will state that once you've entered the approved stage for asylum/immigration (meaning you get the card)....they are going to 'assign' you to a particular German state, and you must reside there for three years before you can move.
An example.....you arrive at some refugee center, wait for four months for the approval of a visa (or possible disapproval), and then an administrative guy is going to review thing and assign you to a state. It's possible to then move from city-1 to city-2, within that state.....but you can't move to a totally separate state (like from Berlin to the Pfalz).
Part of this effort is to prevent 'clumping' where you placed a large group of Syrians in just one single state or region.
The odds of this being challenged in court? I'd say it's a 99-percent chance of a challenge. The fact that you may have four cousins living in Bavaria, and they assign you to Bremen? Well....that's the luck of the system.
Air Quality Story
It'll disturb some Germans, and especially the news media itself....but Focus brought up this report from a US researcher who has been onto the topic of particulate 'deaths' and the mortality rate relating to air pollution.
This researcher, Peter Mock....laid out this one serious statistic....from the six cities in the world with the highest morality rate (relating to air pollution)....three of the cities are in Germany.
The six cities? Milan (Italy), Kiev (Ukraine), Turin (Italy), Stuttgart, Koln and Berlin.
The slam to this research? This didn't have to do with diesel particles, the topic that has hyped up German environmentalists and agenda groups...it's with general air quality (or the lack of such quality). This was more of a project to gaze over all particulate 'deaths' and the various contaminants in the air.
Having been to Berlin, Koln, and Stuttgart....I would offer these observations.
All three are highly urbanized, and with a fair amount of industry. All three lie on a mostly flat plain of land. All three have a significant number of people who live outside of the urbanized zone and travel to work within the city. All three have a significant amount of construction work going on, with heavy equipment being used on a hour-by-hour basis. All three have a significant number of diesel buses running.
The death statistics? Well....no one says much over how they were collected, but I would take a guess that they only counted city residents....not those who live a mile or ten miles outside of the urbanized zone.
Just something to think about. I'm sure that the environmentalists in these three cities will get all hyped up over the matter and demand immediate attention.
This researcher, Peter Mock....laid out this one serious statistic....from the six cities in the world with the highest morality rate (relating to air pollution)....three of the cities are in Germany.
The six cities? Milan (Italy), Kiev (Ukraine), Turin (Italy), Stuttgart, Koln and Berlin.
The slam to this research? This didn't have to do with diesel particles, the topic that has hyped up German environmentalists and agenda groups...it's with general air quality (or the lack of such quality). This was more of a project to gaze over all particulate 'deaths' and the various contaminants in the air.
Having been to Berlin, Koln, and Stuttgart....I would offer these observations.
All three are highly urbanized, and with a fair amount of industry. All three lie on a mostly flat plain of land. All three have a significant number of people who live outside of the urbanized zone and travel to work within the city. All three have a significant amount of construction work going on, with heavy equipment being used on a hour-by-hour basis. All three have a significant number of diesel buses running.
The death statistics? Well....no one says much over how they were collected, but I would take a guess that they only counted city residents....not those who live a mile or ten miles outside of the urbanized zone.
Just something to think about. I'm sure that the environmentalists in these three cities will get all hyped up over the matter and demand immediate attention.
Monday, February 25, 2019
Carnival Episode
We are in the middle of carnival or fasching season in Germany. Among the number of events that will occur, are 'parties' where a carnival-committee will arrange with catered drinks, musicians, and comedians (usually from the local town or city).
For comedians, there's not too many rules or things that you can't insult or make a joke out of. All politicians are usually a fine target. Religious figures and customs are ok to insult, with the exception of Muhammad. International figures like Trump, Putin, or Macron can be easily insulted with jokes. Up until this past weekend, I would have said that PC (politically correct) was not something that existed with carnival parties.
So it came up in Koln, at a major carnival-party....with the noted comedian Bernd Stelter, and a joke which got PC-problems.
As comedians go....I would rate Bernd Shelter as a pretty clever guy....in his late 50s, and fairly well known on German TV (he's been a guest, presenter, moderator, etc). Rating him in the top hundred German comedians? A decade ago, I would have said he was in the top ten. Today....he's probably in the top hundred but closer to one-hundred, than one.
So, he got on the bad boy list this weekend for a joke that had to do with women with double-names (like of course AKK, our CDU Party chief). In this case, as he wrapped up the ten-minute comedian presentation and exited....some woman came to the stage and basically told Bernd....no, that joke slamming double-name women was NOT polite.
Stelter's reaction? If some folks were going to take to shunning or banning actions, then you'd have to draw up a list.
The chief problem here is that jokes like the double-name commentary would have been fine jokes in the 1970s and 1980s. Today, in an audience of 500 people.....you likely have forty women with this double-name situation, and probably five guys who've adapted to double-name situations.
The act of setting up rules for comedians? You see a lot of this in the US, and some comedians who've fallen a great deal because of PC behavior.
The odds that Bernd will be back in 2020? One-hundred percent chance. I suspect he'll even go and invent a new joke about women with a double-double name, meeting up with a guy who has a triple-name.
The odds of forty women walking out of the hall? More than likely.
Here's the thing, if you turn fasching and carnival parties into some kind of controlled theme, and allow 'rules' to exist, then the whole thing might as well be flushed down the toilet. An American sitting there could easily get furious that ten anti-Trump jokes were used, and demand that these have to end. Someone could come to defense of stupid people. Politicians might get up and stamp their feet over jokes slamming their parties.
UPDATE: Well....WDR (the public network from NW Germany recorded the entire evening event, and was supposed to air it this week. A debate has started up.....if they will cut the joke out. If they cut it.....a number of comedians are probably going to ask public TV network leadership what the list is....of approved topics to joke about.
UPDATE: (27 Feb 2019) WDR announced that the scene with the complaint lady and the comedian will be cut (part of this relates to the sound quality of the lady complaining). I heard the two-minute piece of her confronting the comedian on the floor, and you can barely hear anything she says. No reaction yet by the comedian. Show will be broadcast on Monday night, 8:15 PM.
For comedians, there's not too many rules or things that you can't insult or make a joke out of. All politicians are usually a fine target. Religious figures and customs are ok to insult, with the exception of Muhammad. International figures like Trump, Putin, or Macron can be easily insulted with jokes. Up until this past weekend, I would have said that PC (politically correct) was not something that existed with carnival parties.
So it came up in Koln, at a major carnival-party....with the noted comedian Bernd Stelter, and a joke which got PC-problems.
As comedians go....I would rate Bernd Shelter as a pretty clever guy....in his late 50s, and fairly well known on German TV (he's been a guest, presenter, moderator, etc). Rating him in the top hundred German comedians? A decade ago, I would have said he was in the top ten. Today....he's probably in the top hundred but closer to one-hundred, than one.
So, he got on the bad boy list this weekend for a joke that had to do with women with double-names (like of course AKK, our CDU Party chief). In this case, as he wrapped up the ten-minute comedian presentation and exited....some woman came to the stage and basically told Bernd....no, that joke slamming double-name women was NOT polite.
Stelter's reaction? If some folks were going to take to shunning or banning actions, then you'd have to draw up a list.
The chief problem here is that jokes like the double-name commentary would have been fine jokes in the 1970s and 1980s. Today, in an audience of 500 people.....you likely have forty women with this double-name situation, and probably five guys who've adapted to double-name situations.
The act of setting up rules for comedians? You see a lot of this in the US, and some comedians who've fallen a great deal because of PC behavior.
The odds that Bernd will be back in 2020? One-hundred percent chance. I suspect he'll even go and invent a new joke about women with a double-double name, meeting up with a guy who has a triple-name.
The odds of forty women walking out of the hall? More than likely.
Here's the thing, if you turn fasching and carnival parties into some kind of controlled theme, and allow 'rules' to exist, then the whole thing might as well be flushed down the toilet. An American sitting there could easily get furious that ten anti-Trump jokes were used, and demand that these have to end. Someone could come to defense of stupid people. Politicians might get up and stamp their feet over jokes slamming their parties.
UPDATE: Well....WDR (the public network from NW Germany recorded the entire evening event, and was supposed to air it this week. A debate has started up.....if they will cut the joke out. If they cut it.....a number of comedians are probably going to ask public TV network leadership what the list is....of approved topics to joke about.
UPDATE: (27 Feb 2019) WDR announced that the scene with the complaint lady and the comedian will be cut (part of this relates to the sound quality of the lady complaining). I heard the two-minute piece of her confronting the comedian on the floor, and you can barely hear anything she says. No reaction yet by the comedian. Show will be broadcast on Monday night, 8:15 PM.
Home Broker Story
This got brought up over the weekend by a SPD political figure, and openly discussed this morning via a number of news media sites in Germany. I'll reference it back to N-TV (commercial news network).
If you own a condo or home, and you sell it in Germany....you typically went to a home agent/broker, and they did all of the advertising and paperwork involved. The broker fee can range from the 3-percent level on up to 7.14-percent. The better operations with higher success rates can demand the higher percentage.
TYPICALLY, the fee here is handed to the buyer, and they are going to pay it. There might be some instances where it's advertised to be a 50-50 deal, but the majority of the time....it shifts over to the buyer.
So you can do the math on a 200,000 Euro home, and figure a rough 5-percent broker fee....which you the buyer would have to figure 10,000 extra Euro that you need to find in your budget. For the more expensive homes (300,000 Euro), and the higher fee (say 7-percent), that's 21,000 extra Euro that you need to find.
Over the weekend, the Justice Minister (Barley-SPD Party) came out and said that the SPD wants to change the practice and force the seller to be the only one who pays the commission fee.
Logic? Barley puts this back to young people/families, and suggests that they have an enormous burden already, and the broker fee is basically unfair.
You can do the math with what the German Federal Statistical Office say.....roughly half-a-million homes and condos flip on a yearly basis.
What would generally happen? Barley didn't explain that detail, but lets lay out an example. You own a 2-bedroom condo in Frankfurt in a prime area, with the current value of 250,000 Euro. A smart broker who has a record of selling such properties in 90 days or less will take over the project to sell it. His normal take is 6-percent. It comes out to 15,000 Euro for this project. So the seller looks at the property and ups his sell-price to 265,000. Same deal with a guy owning a house in Wiesbaden worth 700,000....he'd up his house price to 742,000 (probably 749,000 in round numbers).
Yes, everyone would hike their property to make the cost factor suggested by the Justice Minister from the SPD Party.
Will the CDU-CSU team agree within the coalition? I seriously doubt it.
They might lean over and agree to a 50-50 split, but even in that case....you'd still have the seller inflate their home-price, to meet the cost of the broker.
Getting Germans to advance onto the idea of no broker? Prior to the internet era, I would have said it was physically impossible. Today, with the on-line marketing tools, it is possible to push the broker teams aside, and do this all yourself (meaning you need to get pretty smart at advertising). In this SPD circle, I suspect that they'd like to push the brokers out of the picture as much as possible. In big cities like Frankfurt or Bonn.....it's possible. But in these smaller towns of 10,000 or less.....more ruralized....then no, the brokers probably aren't going away.
If you own a condo or home, and you sell it in Germany....you typically went to a home agent/broker, and they did all of the advertising and paperwork involved. The broker fee can range from the 3-percent level on up to 7.14-percent. The better operations with higher success rates can demand the higher percentage.
TYPICALLY, the fee here is handed to the buyer, and they are going to pay it. There might be some instances where it's advertised to be a 50-50 deal, but the majority of the time....it shifts over to the buyer.
So you can do the math on a 200,000 Euro home, and figure a rough 5-percent broker fee....which you the buyer would have to figure 10,000 extra Euro that you need to find in your budget. For the more expensive homes (300,000 Euro), and the higher fee (say 7-percent), that's 21,000 extra Euro that you need to find.
Over the weekend, the Justice Minister (Barley-SPD Party) came out and said that the SPD wants to change the practice and force the seller to be the only one who pays the commission fee.
Logic? Barley puts this back to young people/families, and suggests that they have an enormous burden already, and the broker fee is basically unfair.
You can do the math with what the German Federal Statistical Office say.....roughly half-a-million homes and condos flip on a yearly basis.
What would generally happen? Barley didn't explain that detail, but lets lay out an example. You own a 2-bedroom condo in Frankfurt in a prime area, with the current value of 250,000 Euro. A smart broker who has a record of selling such properties in 90 days or less will take over the project to sell it. His normal take is 6-percent. It comes out to 15,000 Euro for this project. So the seller looks at the property and ups his sell-price to 265,000. Same deal with a guy owning a house in Wiesbaden worth 700,000....he'd up his house price to 742,000 (probably 749,000 in round numbers).
Yes, everyone would hike their property to make the cost factor suggested by the Justice Minister from the SPD Party.
Will the CDU-CSU team agree within the coalition? I seriously doubt it.
They might lean over and agree to a 50-50 split, but even in that case....you'd still have the seller inflate their home-price, to meet the cost of the broker.
Getting Germans to advance onto the idea of no broker? Prior to the internet era, I would have said it was physically impossible. Today, with the on-line marketing tools, it is possible to push the broker teams aside, and do this all yourself (meaning you need to get pretty smart at advertising). In this SPD circle, I suspect that they'd like to push the brokers out of the picture as much as possible. In big cities like Frankfurt or Bonn.....it's possible. But in these smaller towns of 10,000 or less.....more ruralized....then no, the brokers probably aren't going away.
Sunday, February 24, 2019
The German Retirement Dilemma
This story came up today via ARD (German public TV, Channel One).
The BILD newspaper folks have a Sunday edition....called 'Welt am Sonntag'. They did research project and came to the University of Wuppertal. The university has been doing a lot of polling and chats with the public in Germany.
It's an interesting thing. The majority of Germans want to retire before the official retirement age (currently set at 65 years and 8 months). The German government has a program in place where the retirement age will increase slightly (year by year) and in the next decade....will reach 67 years.
So here's the thing....at least thirty-percent of Germans want full retirement by age 60. Another 26-percent want retirement done by age 63. At present....roughly only one out of every eight Germans are agreeable to the current government set retirement age.
Germans will argue about the government age thing....with most pointing out that physically....a fair sum of folks are just not capable of making it into their mid-to-late 60s (brick-layers, roofers, etc). In fact, some roofers will say that they ought to be fully retired by age 50. Those who had the better professions and higher pay scale....have the chance in their 30s and 40s....to lay out sums of money, and invest well enough to retire early by age 60. The real middle-class? It would be tough to aim at age 60 for retirement. Part of this issue is the home situation, and if you've got your mortgage finished off by your early 50s, and devote a vast sum of funding toward retirement investments.
This whole debate going on by the SPD Party over resolving the pension shortfalls? It's simply dragging out a whole bunch of side-topics related to pensions and retirement, and getting the public frustrated over the path they are stuck with.
The BILD newspaper folks have a Sunday edition....called 'Welt am Sonntag'. They did research project and came to the University of Wuppertal. The university has been doing a lot of polling and chats with the public in Germany.
It's an interesting thing. The majority of Germans want to retire before the official retirement age (currently set at 65 years and 8 months). The German government has a program in place where the retirement age will increase slightly (year by year) and in the next decade....will reach 67 years.
So here's the thing....at least thirty-percent of Germans want full retirement by age 60. Another 26-percent want retirement done by age 63. At present....roughly only one out of every eight Germans are agreeable to the current government set retirement age.
Germans will argue about the government age thing....with most pointing out that physically....a fair sum of folks are just not capable of making it into their mid-to-late 60s (brick-layers, roofers, etc). In fact, some roofers will say that they ought to be fully retired by age 50. Those who had the better professions and higher pay scale....have the chance in their 30s and 40s....to lay out sums of money, and invest well enough to retire early by age 60. The real middle-class? It would be tough to aim at age 60 for retirement. Part of this issue is the home situation, and if you've got your mortgage finished off by your early 50s, and devote a vast sum of funding toward retirement investments.
This whole debate going on by the SPD Party over resolving the pension shortfalls? It's simply dragging out a whole bunch of side-topics related to pensions and retirement, and getting the public frustrated over the path they are stuck with.
Science Versus Science
There is a great interview over the diesel particle crisis in Germany on HR (our Hessen regional public TV network) today, with Professor Werner Seeger, which I'd advocate a reading of their interview with the guy.
One of the key features of this interview, is that Professor Seeger does point out that two science groups are reading off different pages, and each having a different view of the diesel particle business. The two groups? Environmental epidemiology, and pulmonary medical professionals.
The pulmonary crowd arrived around six weeks ago to this diesel debate with a paper that was published (by retired professor Dieter Koehler) and signed off by 107 pulmonary medical professionals. Professor Seeger will admit, the paper does challenge some details of this entire debate about particle pollution. But he will go and suggest that this is the business of environmental epidemiology folks, not pulmonary medical folks.
A dividing line of scientists? Well....yeah.
At some point in this HR interview, there is the key point of Professor Seeger....that the environmental epidemiology scientists have to use mathematical methods in a scenario-based situation, to reach a result. In simple terms....finding the data sets and then funneling the info to reach a projected end-result. The pulmonary medical folks are using a past history data set, and telling a past history (not a projected history). In the mind of the pulmonary crowd, there's no factual or concrete data to support a city-by-city ban policy.
Past historians versus future historians? In simple terms, yes.
Toward the end of the interview, there is this moment where Professor Seger does hint that this whole discussion was on a quick pace and proven science simply wasn't developed or designed to enter this type of fast-moving 'emergency' (my word for the past two years of discussion).
It's an interesting interview, and I think Professor Seger did his best to be respectful of the pulmonary medical crowd. Maybe if scientists had been invited into the discussions early on....a lot of these opposing details would have been laid out. Instead, this became a city-by-city 'battle', with mostly lawyers, judges, politicians, environmentalists, pro-diesel enthusiasts, lobby-groups, and city planners trying to assemble fifty-odd separate ban actions....with no logic why X-city resolved their ban in this manner, and Y-city resolving it's ban action in a totally different manner. You'd almost think that this was a land of 1,000 city-states, and not one single nation.
One of the key features of this interview, is that Professor Seeger does point out that two science groups are reading off different pages, and each having a different view of the diesel particle business. The two groups? Environmental epidemiology, and pulmonary medical professionals.
The pulmonary crowd arrived around six weeks ago to this diesel debate with a paper that was published (by retired professor Dieter Koehler) and signed off by 107 pulmonary medical professionals. Professor Seeger will admit, the paper does challenge some details of this entire debate about particle pollution. But he will go and suggest that this is the business of environmental epidemiology folks, not pulmonary medical folks.
A dividing line of scientists? Well....yeah.
At some point in this HR interview, there is the key point of Professor Seeger....that the environmental epidemiology scientists have to use mathematical methods in a scenario-based situation, to reach a result. In simple terms....finding the data sets and then funneling the info to reach a projected end-result. The pulmonary medical folks are using a past history data set, and telling a past history (not a projected history). In the mind of the pulmonary crowd, there's no factual or concrete data to support a city-by-city ban policy.
Past historians versus future historians? In simple terms, yes.
Toward the end of the interview, there is this moment where Professor Seger does hint that this whole discussion was on a quick pace and proven science simply wasn't developed or designed to enter this type of fast-moving 'emergency' (my word for the past two years of discussion).
It's an interesting interview, and I think Professor Seger did his best to be respectful of the pulmonary medical crowd. Maybe if scientists had been invited into the discussions early on....a lot of these opposing details would have been laid out. Instead, this became a city-by-city 'battle', with mostly lawyers, judges, politicians, environmentalists, pro-diesel enthusiasts, lobby-groups, and city planners trying to assemble fifty-odd separate ban actions....with no logic why X-city resolved their ban in this manner, and Y-city resolving it's ban action in a totally different manner. You'd almost think that this was a land of 1,000 city-states, and not one single nation.
A Numbers Story
It's a statistic that Focus (the German news magazine) brought up today, for 2018, that is curious in nature.
For 2018, out of the 16 German states....57,000-odd deportations were planned out and attempted. Curiously, 30,921 attempts failed. So slightly less than half of the deportations actually occurred. Added to the data is the fact that 7,000 of these attempts that failed....occurred on the actual day that the cops were attempting to put the person on the flight to leave.
Cops will explain this 7,000 number with the chief reasons: (1) deportee missing, (2) illness, or (3) their exit paper/passport cannot be located.
The public view of these matters? Five years ago, deportations were a rare thing and rarely if ever brought up in the news media. In the Bundestag circles, no one worried about the topic, or public reaction....it simply wasn't a problem. The growing general public view is that migration, immigration, asylum, and deportation are all programs with dismal aspects. Germans would like to hold someone (a political party, a leader, etc) responsible and just yank on their chain to resolve this. But you can't really find the person or party to 'fire'.
There is this talk of a draft law being passed around (referred to as the "orderly return law"). In four to six weeks....it's supposed to be produced and have the stamp of the CDU and SPD parties on it...meaning the coalition would vote it through. The commentary about the unknown law is that deportee nominees would be vetted. Those truly on the bad-boy list (crimes, assaults, threats, etc) would be put into a detention program and held until their deportation can be achieved (whether one day or a thousand days). My humble guess is that this will be immediately challenged in court, and reach the EU court level (way down the line in two years).
As 2018 closed out, the German government reported to the public that roughly 235k failed visa applicants existed in Germany, and needed to be deported. Roughly a third of them can't leave....primarily because they have no passport, or 'entry-papers' for their former country.
Program-wise, Germans are often obsessed with things running in a timely and efficient manner. If sixty-six trains are supposed to leave daily from such-and-such railway station...their expectation is that sixty-six will leave. If you come up and note on a 365-day schedule that two trains typically failed in 100-plus days to run, it begs questions and you usually have to go and appoint a 'truth-committee' to determine who or what is causing those two scheduled trains never to run.
Well, in this deportation matter, no one really wants a 'truth-commission' to walk into this problem because it'll turn into a pro-asylum versus anti-asylum battle, and the public will identify the pro-asylum German crowd as part of the problem.
There's a history element to this issue as well.....which no one really wants to put on the table and discuss. Prior to 2013, it was the 'norm' for immigration and asylum to be handled in an embassy of Germany....not the actual homeland of Germany. If you felt that you needed a visa or wanted to be resettled into Germany....you went into a German embassy, presented your ID (or passport), filled out a dozen pages of forms, and applied. The embassy would verify your ID, and ship the papers off to BamF (the agency over such matters), and in six to eight weeks....return the application either stamped approved or disapproved. With that, the embassy would create a visa, and you'd board a flight to leave for Frankfurt. That was the norm from the 1950s, until 2013. You didn't worry much about deportation because the individual had a complete review, an ID was presented, and the case was settled. Because of the 'open-door' situation, with asylum folks just walking across the border, there's no way to return to the old method.
Politically hurting both the CDU and SPD.....long-term? That's the possibility. It's like a rodeo situation, where both parties are holding on and just hope that the horse eventually tires out. But the public patience is reaching a level where both parties are openly challenged.
For 2018, out of the 16 German states....57,000-odd deportations were planned out and attempted. Curiously, 30,921 attempts failed. So slightly less than half of the deportations actually occurred. Added to the data is the fact that 7,000 of these attempts that failed....occurred on the actual day that the cops were attempting to put the person on the flight to leave.
Cops will explain this 7,000 number with the chief reasons: (1) deportee missing, (2) illness, or (3) their exit paper/passport cannot be located.
The public view of these matters? Five years ago, deportations were a rare thing and rarely if ever brought up in the news media. In the Bundestag circles, no one worried about the topic, or public reaction....it simply wasn't a problem. The growing general public view is that migration, immigration, asylum, and deportation are all programs with dismal aspects. Germans would like to hold someone (a political party, a leader, etc) responsible and just yank on their chain to resolve this. But you can't really find the person or party to 'fire'.
There is this talk of a draft law being passed around (referred to as the "orderly return law"). In four to six weeks....it's supposed to be produced and have the stamp of the CDU and SPD parties on it...meaning the coalition would vote it through. The commentary about the unknown law is that deportee nominees would be vetted. Those truly on the bad-boy list (crimes, assaults, threats, etc) would be put into a detention program and held until their deportation can be achieved (whether one day or a thousand days). My humble guess is that this will be immediately challenged in court, and reach the EU court level (way down the line in two years).
As 2018 closed out, the German government reported to the public that roughly 235k failed visa applicants existed in Germany, and needed to be deported. Roughly a third of them can't leave....primarily because they have no passport, or 'entry-papers' for their former country.
Program-wise, Germans are often obsessed with things running in a timely and efficient manner. If sixty-six trains are supposed to leave daily from such-and-such railway station...their expectation is that sixty-six will leave. If you come up and note on a 365-day schedule that two trains typically failed in 100-plus days to run, it begs questions and you usually have to go and appoint a 'truth-committee' to determine who or what is causing those two scheduled trains never to run.
Well, in this deportation matter, no one really wants a 'truth-commission' to walk into this problem because it'll turn into a pro-asylum versus anti-asylum battle, and the public will identify the pro-asylum German crowd as part of the problem.
There's a history element to this issue as well.....which no one really wants to put on the table and discuss. Prior to 2013, it was the 'norm' for immigration and asylum to be handled in an embassy of Germany....not the actual homeland of Germany. If you felt that you needed a visa or wanted to be resettled into Germany....you went into a German embassy, presented your ID (or passport), filled out a dozen pages of forms, and applied. The embassy would verify your ID, and ship the papers off to BamF (the agency over such matters), and in six to eight weeks....return the application either stamped approved or disapproved. With that, the embassy would create a visa, and you'd board a flight to leave for Frankfurt. That was the norm from the 1950s, until 2013. You didn't worry much about deportation because the individual had a complete review, an ID was presented, and the case was settled. Because of the 'open-door' situation, with asylum folks just walking across the border, there's no way to return to the old method.
Politically hurting both the CDU and SPD.....long-term? That's the possibility. It's like a rodeo situation, where both parties are holding on and just hope that the horse eventually tires out. But the public patience is reaching a level where both parties are openly challenged.
Saturday, February 23, 2019
Linke Party Update
Starting yesterday in Bonn, the Linke Party is holding one of it's quarterly party meetings, and preparing for the EU election in May.
There are two basic themes to this party meeting. The first revolves around a 'push' that the EU needs to reform itself....to undergo an evolution. Part of this theme involves the fact that a growing number of Germans (for that matter, Europeans) feel that the EU has developed into a 'Frankenstein' type creation, and for each problem they claim they've fixed....they've invented a new problem. For the Linke Party leadership, now is the time for 'change'.
The second theme? For the EU election....the chief topic will be the slogan "For a Europe of Solidarity of the millions, against a European Union of Millionaires." The haves versus the have-nots.
For the Linke Party, since the two party merger in the 1990s....there's been a fairly stagnant voting trend. In the 2017 election, they pulled around a 8.6-percent vote, and for 2013, it was 8.2-percent. In 2009, they bumped up to 11.1-percent, which was an increase over 2005's 8-percent.
Why the stagnation? Basically, if you did tend to vote on the liberal side of politics, you have a choice of the SPD (left-of-center), the Greens, the Linke Party, and at least three or four lesser-known parties. So you lay out your ten important factors in life and politics.....marking which party chats more on that topic, and you end up with the better or more logical pick.
The leadership problem with the Linke Party? You basically have three role-players in the Linke. Sahra Wagenknecht is noted as the leader of the party, and has given some hyped-up speeches. But behind her is Katja Kipping, which has a particular dislike of Wagenknecht. KIpping is the co-chair-person of the party. The third character in the mix is Bernd Riexinger (the other co-chair-person of the party). Riexinger is this odd character in the party because he's originally a banker, and to be honest....most everyone associated with the party has a tendency to dislike bankers.
The other thing you might notice about the party, and voting trends? Well....the majority of their votes still come from what is old DDR (East Germany). If you look at those five states, that's the bulk of their vote. In Bavaria or Baden-Wurttemberg? They are barely noticed.
As for the EU election trend? Well....in 2014, they had around 7.4-percent of the national vote for the Linke Party. You have to remember.....out of 62-million registered German to vote....only about half of them came out in 2014 to vote in the EU election. I'd expect the same situation in 2019.
There are two basic themes to this party meeting. The first revolves around a 'push' that the EU needs to reform itself....to undergo an evolution. Part of this theme involves the fact that a growing number of Germans (for that matter, Europeans) feel that the EU has developed into a 'Frankenstein' type creation, and for each problem they claim they've fixed....they've invented a new problem. For the Linke Party leadership, now is the time for 'change'.
The second theme? For the EU election....the chief topic will be the slogan "For a Europe of Solidarity of the millions, against a European Union of Millionaires." The haves versus the have-nots.
For the Linke Party, since the two party merger in the 1990s....there's been a fairly stagnant voting trend. In the 2017 election, they pulled around a 8.6-percent vote, and for 2013, it was 8.2-percent. In 2009, they bumped up to 11.1-percent, which was an increase over 2005's 8-percent.
Why the stagnation? Basically, if you did tend to vote on the liberal side of politics, you have a choice of the SPD (left-of-center), the Greens, the Linke Party, and at least three or four lesser-known parties. So you lay out your ten important factors in life and politics.....marking which party chats more on that topic, and you end up with the better or more logical pick.
The leadership problem with the Linke Party? You basically have three role-players in the Linke. Sahra Wagenknecht is noted as the leader of the party, and has given some hyped-up speeches. But behind her is Katja Kipping, which has a particular dislike of Wagenknecht. KIpping is the co-chair-person of the party. The third character in the mix is Bernd Riexinger (the other co-chair-person of the party). Riexinger is this odd character in the party because he's originally a banker, and to be honest....most everyone associated with the party has a tendency to dislike bankers.
The other thing you might notice about the party, and voting trends? Well....the majority of their votes still come from what is old DDR (East Germany). If you look at those five states, that's the bulk of their vote. In Bavaria or Baden-Wurttemberg? They are barely noticed.
As for the EU election trend? Well....in 2014, they had around 7.4-percent of the national vote for the Linke Party. You have to remember.....out of 62-million registered German to vote....only about half of them came out in 2014 to vote in the EU election. I'd expect the same situation in 2019.
How Did the German Diesel 'Crisis' Arrive?
Rather than some 400-page book, I'll try to lay out the landscape, with a couple of significant details, and explain the insider saga.
A couple of decades ago, the EU came out and felt there was a need for a clean-air standard. So they made a law, and listed out pollutants and to what degree it was OK, and where it meant action had to be taken. The blunt edge of this law....was aimed at cities...NOT states or nations. I doubt if they spent a lot of time thinking over long-term implications, but that doesn't matter at this point. If a city failed to provide adequate safe air, they would be fined....leaving the state and nation out of the whole discussion.
So years passed. The EU funneled money into monitoring stations, which were erected around all urbanized areas and major cities. You can note the stations on major avenues (four-lane streets)...usually in the heart of the city. In Wiesbaden, I think presently there are four to six of these. Data is collected and analyzed. There's no doubt that nitrogen oxide particles were being produced via diesel vehicles (trucks, buses, and private cars) throughout Germany. And there is no doubt that the numbers for decades were significant.
Along the way, the EU established standards for diesel cars. Euro 1 standard was set in 1992. As of that year, you as a auto-maker....had to meet that standard with the new cars. Euro II came in 1996, and Euro III in 2000. Euro IV came in 2005, Euro V in 2009, and we are presently in Euro VI (2014).
Somewhere about a decade ago, the VW folks were moving to a new diesel technology engine. They were supposed to able to meet the standards of Euro V. After a fair amount of development and testing, the insider crew of VW's team basically came to admit that they couldn't reach the EU standard on emissions.
We can debate the issue of the EU establishing its standards and just 'thinking' that technology will reach that standard, but it's a worthless debate. VW couldn't reach that level expected. So, they took the unethical route of inventing a software package that would fake out the test-people, and make them think that the standards were being met. They sold these cars in Germany, in Europe, and in the US.
Roughly two years ago.....the secret came out and VW fell into a major chaotic period. Now, the environmental folks had a chance to press on with forcing cities to act on clean air standards (not by German law, but by EU law). Courts were dragged into this, and city councils were forced to plan for something with serious consequences. Stuttgart was at the front of this entire pendulum-swing.
Some city-planners felt this was the opportune time to press for mass public transportation to be the big answer. You would go and force the diesel drivers to halt at some station on the outskirts of town....riding the subway or tram into the heart of the city for your job, or university study. Maybe if you'd had twenty years to really develop this idea and build the right kind of support structure....it would have worked. In the mindset of those involved....all of this had to be done in a matter of two or three years.
Some cities pressed the Chancellor to hand out a massive funding vehicle and just provide 'free' transportation. For all of Germany, just to get this up to the amount required and cover it.....you'd be talking about hundreds of billions, and years to accomplish. The Chancellor basically came up with a test program to involve five or six cities, and a limited amount of national funding to run 'free' transportation for a period of time. It'll be at least two more years before results from this test period are known, and the true cost impacts are openly discussed.
Meanwhile, the banning chatter increased. Instead of this being five or six major cities....it progressed onto more than fifty German urban areas. Some wanted a full ban of diesel cars. Some wanted two or three major avenues restricted. Some wanted the center-part of towns entirely banned.
Diesel owners? They became frustrated.
Last year, it was reported at one point that 300,000 Euro 5 diesel vehicles were sitting idly on dealer lots (used cars) and impossible to sell. When diesel owners came in and tried to resell their vehicles....the value had dropped and it was becoming impossible to get any real value out of these vehicles. You could have been sitting there with a six-year old Porsche SUV, which ought to have 25,000 Euro value still left in it, and find that the dealer wouldn't offer more than 5k to 10k Euro for the vehicle.
Vehicles being sold off into Poland or Czech? Yes....they had no problem. No cities outside of Germany were being affected by this diesel car ban chatter.
How many diesel Euro I to IV cars exist in Germany? In 2017, it was in the 6.4-million range. All of those would have easily failed the particle test.
A technology development to cleanse the older cars? This was often discussed. Several folks had projects in development and probably can meet the standards. But here we get to three curious issues: (1) the cost of the 'box' is typically 1,500 Euro....so who'd pay for it...the consumer or the nation? (2) Would the box be the permanent resolution, or would this just lead the EU to define the next standard, and this box fail to meet that....thus requiring another box (1,500 Euro more)? (3) What if the box marginalized your mileage or damaged the engine (car companies really didn't like the sound of that discussion)?
Total number of diesel cars on German streets and roads (from category I to VI)? It's generally put at between 14 and 15 million total.
Why so much interest in diesel cars? There are various factors, but most lead back to three factors: (1) mileage, if you do live sixty kilometers away from your job, it would make sense to own a diesel vehicle. (2) Dedicated German diesel owners will hype maintenance/dependability. (3) Fuel costs being less (you pay slightly more on yearly registration fees compared to gas vehicles, but if you were driving 700 kilometers a week, it does make sense).
Could the German federal government out of Berlin offered to cover cost of retiring all Euro category IV (or older) diesel cars? That would have calmed the nerves of the millions of diesel owners. No, the government was not going to do that. Could the federal government have covered the 1,500 Euro box on affected cars? That would have calmed the nerves of millions of diesel owners. No, that wasn't going to happen.
How much alarmism fell into this whole discussion? About a year ago, if you follow diesel owners and their commentary.....with that of politicians....people were beginning to talk of the alarmism angle and why all of this had to be resolved in some short fashion. At this point, you began to notice people turning and facing the EU structure and asking how this law got created, and wondering about who to blame. The Berlin leadership (doesn't matter which party you talk about....far-left to far-right) really preferred to avoid the topic of diesel cars entirely. Every answer involved funding that didn't exist.
The possibility that VW would be finally dragged into a consumer battle and be bankrupted? This kept being brought up and the consumer fraud angle is still openly discussed, with the court battle likely to end in the next two years. If the diesel car bans were averted? Well....there's no court case, and no fear of VW being permanently harmed.
If you were looking for a fine German-made 3-year old SUV for a fantastic price (low-mileage, 35-to-50 percent of its original value)? If you accept a diesel vehicle....there's tens of thousands on the market and available.
In the end, this was a 'emergency-creation' driven by the EU for a standard that the industry could not deliver. There was no fall-back position, or waiver. So here were the consumers, being stuck and screwed-over.
A couple of decades ago, the EU came out and felt there was a need for a clean-air standard. So they made a law, and listed out pollutants and to what degree it was OK, and where it meant action had to be taken. The blunt edge of this law....was aimed at cities...NOT states or nations. I doubt if they spent a lot of time thinking over long-term implications, but that doesn't matter at this point. If a city failed to provide adequate safe air, they would be fined....leaving the state and nation out of the whole discussion.
So years passed. The EU funneled money into monitoring stations, which were erected around all urbanized areas and major cities. You can note the stations on major avenues (four-lane streets)...usually in the heart of the city. In Wiesbaden, I think presently there are four to six of these. Data is collected and analyzed. There's no doubt that nitrogen oxide particles were being produced via diesel vehicles (trucks, buses, and private cars) throughout Germany. And there is no doubt that the numbers for decades were significant.
Along the way, the EU established standards for diesel cars. Euro 1 standard was set in 1992. As of that year, you as a auto-maker....had to meet that standard with the new cars. Euro II came in 1996, and Euro III in 2000. Euro IV came in 2005, Euro V in 2009, and we are presently in Euro VI (2014).
Somewhere about a decade ago, the VW folks were moving to a new diesel technology engine. They were supposed to able to meet the standards of Euro V. After a fair amount of development and testing, the insider crew of VW's team basically came to admit that they couldn't reach the EU standard on emissions.
We can debate the issue of the EU establishing its standards and just 'thinking' that technology will reach that standard, but it's a worthless debate. VW couldn't reach that level expected. So, they took the unethical route of inventing a software package that would fake out the test-people, and make them think that the standards were being met. They sold these cars in Germany, in Europe, and in the US.
Roughly two years ago.....the secret came out and VW fell into a major chaotic period. Now, the environmental folks had a chance to press on with forcing cities to act on clean air standards (not by German law, but by EU law). Courts were dragged into this, and city councils were forced to plan for something with serious consequences. Stuttgart was at the front of this entire pendulum-swing.
Some city-planners felt this was the opportune time to press for mass public transportation to be the big answer. You would go and force the diesel drivers to halt at some station on the outskirts of town....riding the subway or tram into the heart of the city for your job, or university study. Maybe if you'd had twenty years to really develop this idea and build the right kind of support structure....it would have worked. In the mindset of those involved....all of this had to be done in a matter of two or three years.
Some cities pressed the Chancellor to hand out a massive funding vehicle and just provide 'free' transportation. For all of Germany, just to get this up to the amount required and cover it.....you'd be talking about hundreds of billions, and years to accomplish. The Chancellor basically came up with a test program to involve five or six cities, and a limited amount of national funding to run 'free' transportation for a period of time. It'll be at least two more years before results from this test period are known, and the true cost impacts are openly discussed.
Meanwhile, the banning chatter increased. Instead of this being five or six major cities....it progressed onto more than fifty German urban areas. Some wanted a full ban of diesel cars. Some wanted two or three major avenues restricted. Some wanted the center-part of towns entirely banned.
Diesel owners? They became frustrated.
Last year, it was reported at one point that 300,000 Euro 5 diesel vehicles were sitting idly on dealer lots (used cars) and impossible to sell. When diesel owners came in and tried to resell their vehicles....the value had dropped and it was becoming impossible to get any real value out of these vehicles. You could have been sitting there with a six-year old Porsche SUV, which ought to have 25,000 Euro value still left in it, and find that the dealer wouldn't offer more than 5k to 10k Euro for the vehicle.
Vehicles being sold off into Poland or Czech? Yes....they had no problem. No cities outside of Germany were being affected by this diesel car ban chatter.
How many diesel Euro I to IV cars exist in Germany? In 2017, it was in the 6.4-million range. All of those would have easily failed the particle test.
A technology development to cleanse the older cars? This was often discussed. Several folks had projects in development and probably can meet the standards. But here we get to three curious issues: (1) the cost of the 'box' is typically 1,500 Euro....so who'd pay for it...the consumer or the nation? (2) Would the box be the permanent resolution, or would this just lead the EU to define the next standard, and this box fail to meet that....thus requiring another box (1,500 Euro more)? (3) What if the box marginalized your mileage or damaged the engine (car companies really didn't like the sound of that discussion)?
Total number of diesel cars on German streets and roads (from category I to VI)? It's generally put at between 14 and 15 million total.
Why so much interest in diesel cars? There are various factors, but most lead back to three factors: (1) mileage, if you do live sixty kilometers away from your job, it would make sense to own a diesel vehicle. (2) Dedicated German diesel owners will hype maintenance/dependability. (3) Fuel costs being less (you pay slightly more on yearly registration fees compared to gas vehicles, but if you were driving 700 kilometers a week, it does make sense).
Could the German federal government out of Berlin offered to cover cost of retiring all Euro category IV (or older) diesel cars? That would have calmed the nerves of the millions of diesel owners. No, the government was not going to do that. Could the federal government have covered the 1,500 Euro box on affected cars? That would have calmed the nerves of millions of diesel owners. No, that wasn't going to happen.
How much alarmism fell into this whole discussion? About a year ago, if you follow diesel owners and their commentary.....with that of politicians....people were beginning to talk of the alarmism angle and why all of this had to be resolved in some short fashion. At this point, you began to notice people turning and facing the EU structure and asking how this law got created, and wondering about who to blame. The Berlin leadership (doesn't matter which party you talk about....far-left to far-right) really preferred to avoid the topic of diesel cars entirely. Every answer involved funding that didn't exist.
The possibility that VW would be finally dragged into a consumer battle and be bankrupted? This kept being brought up and the consumer fraud angle is still openly discussed, with the court battle likely to end in the next two years. If the diesel car bans were averted? Well....there's no court case, and no fear of VW being permanently harmed.
If you were looking for a fine German-made 3-year old SUV for a fantastic price (low-mileage, 35-to-50 percent of its original value)? If you accept a diesel vehicle....there's tens of thousands on the market and available.
In the end, this was a 'emergency-creation' driven by the EU for a standard that the industry could not deliver. There was no fall-back position, or waiver. So here were the consumers, being stuck and screwed-over.
Friday, February 22, 2019
A Cucumber Story
I often point out that Wiesbaden has a crime situation which you often feel amused about. The local police blotter had a story to come out today.....over a call for police support late yesterday in the middle of town, at a grocery.
The incident? Some guy had reached over to grab the last cucumber in the vegetable tray, while another guy (yep both males) was reaching to grab it. A confrontation started up, and one guy punched the other. Grocery clerks quickly reacted....calling the cops.
Cops arrived, and things quieten down. What the cops say now? An investigation is underway.
An assault charge and appearance in front of a city court judge....over a cucumber? Yes. Just figuring court costs....it's probably 200 times what the cucumber costs.
The incident? Some guy had reached over to grab the last cucumber in the vegetable tray, while another guy (yep both males) was reaching to grab it. A confrontation started up, and one guy punched the other. Grocery clerks quickly reacted....calling the cops.
Cops arrived, and things quieten down. What the cops say now? An investigation is underway.
An assault charge and appearance in front of a city court judge....over a cucumber? Yes. Just figuring court costs....it's probably 200 times what the cucumber costs.
Diesel Chaos Coming to An End?
Focus (the German news magazine) brought up a curious development with the diesel car business today.
What they say is that a meeting is scheduled for 12 March, with the CDU and SPD prepared to end the two-year long 'mess'.
The basic pieces of the correction:
1. The government (CDU and SPD) would amend the Federal Immission Control Act (a German creation, not a EU creation). The new regulation would require that cities and villages make their own decision on NO2 levels (40 to 50 micrograms per cubic meter) and then determine the driving bans which are appropriate. The measurements would ONLY be taken at busy or high-volume streets.
2. If they ban diesel vehicles....they can only ban the older Euro 4 or 5 standard diesel cars. Euro 6 standard diesel cars (made in the past 7 years) would be allowed to continue on. The Euro 3 standard cars (well over 25 years old)? There's a suggestion that they'd be banned. To be honest, it's rare that you see cars of this age around.
3. Leftover is the retrofitting idea, which some SPD folks are still pushing upon (cost of 1,500 Euro to 2,500 Euro per vehicle). The newer cars (Euro 6) wouldn't have to do it. If this got pushed, it'd be a toss-up if Euro 5 was forced into this situation.
The EU? They apparently are setting this up to help Merkel to get out of the entire mess.
Would this just end by the end of March? Yes, with the retrofitting really the only thing that might drag on for another six to twelve months.
How big a mess did this achieve? Well....I think it hit a peak last month when scientist began to question the numbers, and the science behind the ban. Once that fell into place....I think a number of politicians got worried that the public would figure out that the science didn't support the ban, and judges would lay this back at the feet of the Bundestag to correct.
What they say is that a meeting is scheduled for 12 March, with the CDU and SPD prepared to end the two-year long 'mess'.
The basic pieces of the correction:
1. The government (CDU and SPD) would amend the Federal Immission Control Act (a German creation, not a EU creation). The new regulation would require that cities and villages make their own decision on NO2 levels (40 to 50 micrograms per cubic meter) and then determine the driving bans which are appropriate. The measurements would ONLY be taken at busy or high-volume streets.
2. If they ban diesel vehicles....they can only ban the older Euro 4 or 5 standard diesel cars. Euro 6 standard diesel cars (made in the past 7 years) would be allowed to continue on. The Euro 3 standard cars (well over 25 years old)? There's a suggestion that they'd be banned. To be honest, it's rare that you see cars of this age around.
3. Leftover is the retrofitting idea, which some SPD folks are still pushing upon (cost of 1,500 Euro to 2,500 Euro per vehicle). The newer cars (Euro 6) wouldn't have to do it. If this got pushed, it'd be a toss-up if Euro 5 was forced into this situation.
The EU? They apparently are setting this up to help Merkel to get out of the entire mess.
Would this just end by the end of March? Yes, with the retrofitting really the only thing that might drag on for another six to twelve months.
How big a mess did this achieve? Well....I think it hit a peak last month when scientist began to question the numbers, and the science behind the ban. Once that fell into place....I think a number of politicians got worried that the public would figure out that the science didn't support the ban, and judges would lay this back at the feet of the Bundestag to correct.
VW in the News Today
It is a German court decision that has significant implications. Today....the German Federal Court determined that VW customers in their complaints on the diesel scandal....have a legitimate position when they bought a new VW diesel car that was including the 'defeat' software....so, yes, those buyers (into the millions) will be entitled to compensation.
VW? It puts them in a fairly bad position.
Course, it also means that numerous judges will be dragged in and face a difficult position of deciding how bad VW screwed over the customers. 100-percent? Fifty-percent? Unknown.
My guess is that VW will offer a deal where you get a new car, gas or battery-driven.....with a 50-percent discount, and hoping that customers would just take the deal. Then VW would flip the diesel cars over to countries like Russia or India (for re-sale).....for 50-percent of the normal value.
VW? It puts them in a fairly bad position.
Course, it also means that numerous judges will be dragged in and face a difficult position of deciding how bad VW screwed over the customers. 100-percent? Fifty-percent? Unknown.
My guess is that VW will offer a deal where you get a new car, gas or battery-driven.....with a 50-percent discount, and hoping that customers would just take the deal. Then VW would flip the diesel cars over to countries like Russia or India (for re-sale).....for 50-percent of the normal value.
Nazi Disability-Pension Story
It's a 10-line story, which started out of BILD (the German newspaper) this morning and begs questions.
Every month....Germany funnels 787,000 Euro out of the country, to 2,033 individuals listed by the German government on disability. The 2,033 folks.....live beyond the border of Germany.
So, BILD lays it out....some (but they never tell you the number) are former Nazi associates or collaborators....from the nation of Belgium. How many? Unknown. It might be ten....it might be 100.
Why this came up? Well....the Belgium government kinda wandered into this topic and discovered that a number of Belgium folks are getting this German check each month, and it begged for reasons to explain why. The names of the Belgium folks? Well....that's not totally known either.
Could all 2,033 folks be ex-Nazi helpers? I doubt this.
Does Chancellor Merkel even know about the 2,033 folks? I doubt that.
Does the head of the Ministry of Finance for Germany know about the payments? I doubt that.
Somewhere down the line....there's some 60-year old German guy in some department that only handles disabled non-Germans and he's got this cabinet with 2,033 folders in it and it's probably his full-time job....monitoring the group and accounting for their money. 'Hans' (my name for the guy) probably has had this job for thirty years and quietly done this in an efficient way....just like his mentor and former boss handled it.
My humble guess is that one of these disability folks passed away and the Belgium government was trying to sort out who was paying this old guy pension-like money, and why. And eventually, it led back to Berlin.
So Nazi stuff still going on in 2019? Yeah, and it's dwindling every year to a lesser number.
Every month....Germany funnels 787,000 Euro out of the country, to 2,033 individuals listed by the German government on disability. The 2,033 folks.....live beyond the border of Germany.
So, BILD lays it out....some (but they never tell you the number) are former Nazi associates or collaborators....from the nation of Belgium. How many? Unknown. It might be ten....it might be 100.
Why this came up? Well....the Belgium government kinda wandered into this topic and discovered that a number of Belgium folks are getting this German check each month, and it begged for reasons to explain why. The names of the Belgium folks? Well....that's not totally known either.
Could all 2,033 folks be ex-Nazi helpers? I doubt this.
Does Chancellor Merkel even know about the 2,033 folks? I doubt that.
Does the head of the Ministry of Finance for Germany know about the payments? I doubt that.
Somewhere down the line....there's some 60-year old German guy in some department that only handles disabled non-Germans and he's got this cabinet with 2,033 folders in it and it's probably his full-time job....monitoring the group and accounting for their money. 'Hans' (my name for the guy) probably has had this job for thirty years and quietly done this in an efficient way....just like his mentor and former boss handled it.
My humble guess is that one of these disability folks passed away and the Belgium government was trying to sort out who was paying this old guy pension-like money, and why. And eventually, it led back to Berlin.
So Nazi stuff still going on in 2019? Yeah, and it's dwindling every year to a lesser number.
Thursday, February 21, 2019
Statistics Story
It was a 10-line German story which interested me on ARD News today (public TV, Channel One). Last year (2018), 504 Germans drowned.
It's up by 20-percent over the previous year.
Reasons? Some folks believe the long hot summer had something to do with the higher numbers. The fact that 80-percent of the 504 Germans were men? Well....no one can rightly explain this.
I might go and suggest alcohol played into some of the male numbers.....a higher risk potential with guys, and just plain stupidity by guys.
The fact that 29 of the 504 were drownings in life-guard protected pools? Yeah, that is an extraordinary high number.
It's up by 20-percent over the previous year.
Reasons? Some folks believe the long hot summer had something to do with the higher numbers. The fact that 80-percent of the 504 Germans were men? Well....no one can rightly explain this.
I might go and suggest alcohol played into some of the male numbers.....a higher risk potential with guys, and just plain stupidity by guys.
The fact that 29 of the 504 were drownings in life-guard protected pools? Yeah, that is an extraordinary high number.
Germany: The Fake Dividing Line between Juvenile and Adult
Believe it or not....if you get into any trouble (even up to murder, rape, assault, etc) in Germany, and you are 21 or less.....you will be detained and handled in a legal manner as a juvenile. If you are 22....you will be handled as an adult.
Yes, you could go out and rob a bank....rape several women over a summer....assault some teacher....all at age 18, and be treated as a juvenile.
The system is....what it is.
The fact that you can rent an apartment at 18? Doesn't matter.
The fact that you can join the Bundeswehr, and carry arms into combat? Doesn't matter.
The fact that you can marry at 18, without any consent or paperwork? Doesn't matter.
The fact that the age of consent in Germany is 14? Doesn't matter.
Once the legal system is engaged for your 'troubles', you are treated as a juvenile.
Voting? You need to be 18 years old to vote in any German election....but these are the same people who would say you can't be treated as a adult in the legal system....you have to be treated as a juvenile.
This came up this week with a court issue attached to a German female (over the age of 30) who is accused of raping a young 'juvenile' immigrant 'lad'.....who it's established that he've over 18, but not yet 21. In the mind of the 'lady'....this can't be happening, and she's just shaking her head over the legal woes falling into place.
Something to be fixed? No. It's nowhere on the top 500 problems of working-class Germans, and will simply continue on being a curious matter of dividing up juveniles and adults.
Yes, you could go out and rob a bank....rape several women over a summer....assault some teacher....all at age 18, and be treated as a juvenile.
The system is....what it is.
The fact that you can rent an apartment at 18? Doesn't matter.
The fact that you can join the Bundeswehr, and carry arms into combat? Doesn't matter.
The fact that you can marry at 18, without any consent or paperwork? Doesn't matter.
The fact that the age of consent in Germany is 14? Doesn't matter.
Once the legal system is engaged for your 'troubles', you are treated as a juvenile.
Voting? You need to be 18 years old to vote in any German election....but these are the same people who would say you can't be treated as a adult in the legal system....you have to be treated as a juvenile.
This came up this week with a court issue attached to a German female (over the age of 30) who is accused of raping a young 'juvenile' immigrant 'lad'.....who it's established that he've over 18, but not yet 21. In the mind of the 'lady'....this can't be happening, and she's just shaking her head over the legal woes falling into place.
Something to be fixed? No. It's nowhere on the top 500 problems of working-class Germans, and will simply continue on being a curious matter of dividing up juveniles and adults.
The Religion in School Story
I start this essay with the notion.....elections have consequences.
Back in the spring of 2016, Saxony-Anhalt (one of Germany's sixteen states) had a state election. Migration and asylum had affected the public perception. The AfD Party came in second place (24-percent, a healthy chunk of votes). The CDU Party (Merkel's group) was able to win but marginally (30-percent).
The CDU had to partner up, and the end-result was a combination that was troublesome. They would partner with the SPD and Green parties. Together, they pulled around 16-percent of the state vote. Usually, coalitions work in a healthy way, as long as you keep it to one 'master-party' and one 'junior-party'. Once you involve a third party....the fundamental agreement gets tossed around and put into a problem area.
Well....this week, an event came up and the CDU is shaking its head over the direction that the SPD/Green partners want to go.....with the coalition government. The subject came up to allow Islamic education into the public school system of Saxony-Anhalt.
So some basic background. For those who aren't into geography....Saxony-Anhalt is a state that existed out of the old DDR (East Germany) days. It lies about 50 km west of Berlin. Big cities of the state? Halle and Magdeburg are probably the two that you might recognize. Economically, it's a state which hasn't really seen a lot of success since the wall came down....although Germany has poured billions into the infrastructure and rebuilt most of the roads and bridges. Politically, there's a fair amount of negativity about immigrants and foreigners. Number of Muslims in the state? Germany doesn't track that kind of number (for obvious reasons), and anyone suggesting a number....is just taking a educated guess.
In a normal school system....around the 7th to 9th grade.....there is a class mandated in religion. Typically, there's the Catholic group and the Lutheran (my term) group. Part of this class effort is ethics and morals. Could a Catholic kid be in the Lutheran group or vice-versa? Yes.
So this effort by the SPD and Green parties was to convince the CDU to agree, and go the next step.....allowing Islamic religious instruction within the schools. The CDU? The idea is being slow-balled, and the party prefers to avoid this topic.
Some problems along the way? Well....this is part of the landscape. You have to have qualified instructors (they typically aren't part of the education sector). Since this is only one structured period (60 to 75 minutes) per week....it's typically a part-time instructor. If you did find qualified instructors for Islamic classes, is this guy attached to some fundamentalist agenda or Salifistian behavior (hard-line conservative)? So just saying you agree to have classes....doesn't really come to resolve basic issues of who is instructing.
Then you come to the 2021 problem. In the spring of 2021, there's another state election. The CDU basically won with six points to spare in 2016 over the AfD. It's possible that this Islamic instruction discussion could trigger another three or four percent of the public to question this direction, and bring the AfD Party (anti-migrants) very close to winning an election.
Even if this occurred (say a 2021 election with the AfD as a winner)....is a coalition government possible? No. You would likely end up with a weaker CDU coalition group....marginally partnered up with the weaker SPD and Green Party.
A way to just skip this subject? Not really. In the minds of the SPD and Green agenda folks.....they need to 'educate' the public to some degree of acceptance. Amusingly.....the AfD folks tend to believe 'educating' the public to their stance is important.
Back in the spring of 2016, Saxony-Anhalt (one of Germany's sixteen states) had a state election. Migration and asylum had affected the public perception. The AfD Party came in second place (24-percent, a healthy chunk of votes). The CDU Party (Merkel's group) was able to win but marginally (30-percent).
The CDU had to partner up, and the end-result was a combination that was troublesome. They would partner with the SPD and Green parties. Together, they pulled around 16-percent of the state vote. Usually, coalitions work in a healthy way, as long as you keep it to one 'master-party' and one 'junior-party'. Once you involve a third party....the fundamental agreement gets tossed around and put into a problem area.
Well....this week, an event came up and the CDU is shaking its head over the direction that the SPD/Green partners want to go.....with the coalition government. The subject came up to allow Islamic education into the public school system of Saxony-Anhalt.
So some basic background. For those who aren't into geography....Saxony-Anhalt is a state that existed out of the old DDR (East Germany) days. It lies about 50 km west of Berlin. Big cities of the state? Halle and Magdeburg are probably the two that you might recognize. Economically, it's a state which hasn't really seen a lot of success since the wall came down....although Germany has poured billions into the infrastructure and rebuilt most of the roads and bridges. Politically, there's a fair amount of negativity about immigrants and foreigners. Number of Muslims in the state? Germany doesn't track that kind of number (for obvious reasons), and anyone suggesting a number....is just taking a educated guess.
In a normal school system....around the 7th to 9th grade.....there is a class mandated in religion. Typically, there's the Catholic group and the Lutheran (my term) group. Part of this class effort is ethics and morals. Could a Catholic kid be in the Lutheran group or vice-versa? Yes.
So this effort by the SPD and Green parties was to convince the CDU to agree, and go the next step.....allowing Islamic religious instruction within the schools. The CDU? The idea is being slow-balled, and the party prefers to avoid this topic.
Some problems along the way? Well....this is part of the landscape. You have to have qualified instructors (they typically aren't part of the education sector). Since this is only one structured period (60 to 75 minutes) per week....it's typically a part-time instructor. If you did find qualified instructors for Islamic classes, is this guy attached to some fundamentalist agenda or Salifistian behavior (hard-line conservative)? So just saying you agree to have classes....doesn't really come to resolve basic issues of who is instructing.
Then you come to the 2021 problem. In the spring of 2021, there's another state election. The CDU basically won with six points to spare in 2016 over the AfD. It's possible that this Islamic instruction discussion could trigger another three or four percent of the public to question this direction, and bring the AfD Party (anti-migrants) very close to winning an election.
Even if this occurred (say a 2021 election with the AfD as a winner)....is a coalition government possible? No. You would likely end up with a weaker CDU coalition group....marginally partnered up with the weaker SPD and Green Party.
A way to just skip this subject? Not really. In the minds of the SPD and Green agenda folks.....they need to 'educate' the public to some degree of acceptance. Amusingly.....the AfD folks tend to believe 'educating' the public to their stance is important.
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Flight Story
When the switch of leadership facilities occurred in the late 1990s....from Bonn to Berlin, there was a couple of things that simply didn't move to Berlin. Varying reasons were given at the time, and no one said much.
This past week, the Green Party stood up in the Bundestag and asked a question. The question was....the VIP aircraft fleet which is available for the Chancellor and Ministers....how many times a year do they fly from Koln (their military base of assignment) to Berlin, to pick up 'passengers' and transport them.
The answer? RBB (Berlin public TV) reports the answer: 800 times a year.
Yep...empty plane assigned to fly out of Koln to Berlin, and then pick up their passengers. And later, it'll fly the passengers back to Berlin, and to return to Koln.
What prevents the permanent movement of the military aircraft unit to Berlin? Well....BER....the new airport going up and which was supposed to have been done around 2011 (still behind schedule), still can't handle flight activity.
The number of times that the Koln team were scheduled to transport a VIP passenger group, and upon arrival at Berlin.....the flight was cancelled? Well...in 2018, there were ten of these cancelled flights.
Will this hype change anything? Personally, I have my doubts.
This past week, the Green Party stood up in the Bundestag and asked a question. The question was....the VIP aircraft fleet which is available for the Chancellor and Ministers....how many times a year do they fly from Koln (their military base of assignment) to Berlin, to pick up 'passengers' and transport them.
The answer? RBB (Berlin public TV) reports the answer: 800 times a year.
Yep...empty plane assigned to fly out of Koln to Berlin, and then pick up their passengers. And later, it'll fly the passengers back to Berlin, and to return to Koln.
What prevents the permanent movement of the military aircraft unit to Berlin? Well....BER....the new airport going up and which was supposed to have been done around 2011 (still behind schedule), still can't handle flight activity.
The number of times that the Koln team were scheduled to transport a VIP passenger group, and upon arrival at Berlin.....the flight was cancelled? Well...in 2018, there were ten of these cancelled flights.
Will this hype change anything? Personally, I have my doubts.
German Diesel Crisis: New Problem
It came out this morning via ARD (public TV, Channel One) that a intellectual war over math is now reshaping the whole discussion over the diesel particle crisis in Germany.
So here is the basic 'math' story. There's a 'think-tank' operation within the Helmholtz Institute (Mainz, created in 2009), which sat down in 2018, and used statistical methods to scientifically state that the relationship with diesel's nitrogen dioxide particles (the bad stuff) and lung disease....with 2014 data....equals around (roughly) 6,000 Germans dying early in life. Numbers-wise, it all equaled...but there is one problem (which was stated by noted epidemiologist and math-wiz Professor Peter Morfeld (Ruhr University)....it's unscientific.
Yes....pure and simple....unscientific.
The problem is that you can't say in a prediction sort of way.....that they died via the particles business. You would have to go and examine the death certificate of every German who died in 2014, and then reach a conclusion that those with breathing issues caused their death, and they were linked to nitrogen dioxide particles.
In this case, I would even suggest that if you did come up with 6,000 death certificates which matched up.....the next question would be if they all lived in urbanized areas. If 700 of them lived in highly rural areas, or mountainous regions....then it'd probably lead to a faulty assessment.
Professor Morfeld even states in a blunt way....the data in the report simply can't be trusted.
This puts the national agency over the environment into a tough position, and invites more scientific discussion....something that the environmental folks probably won't be happy about. Judges stuck in this ban chatter by city leaders? I'm guessing that they are willing now to delay the individual city-ban business until this gets sorted out.
So here is the basic 'math' story. There's a 'think-tank' operation within the Helmholtz Institute (Mainz, created in 2009), which sat down in 2018, and used statistical methods to scientifically state that the relationship with diesel's nitrogen dioxide particles (the bad stuff) and lung disease....with 2014 data....equals around (roughly) 6,000 Germans dying early in life. Numbers-wise, it all equaled...but there is one problem (which was stated by noted epidemiologist and math-wiz Professor Peter Morfeld (Ruhr University)....it's unscientific.
Yes....pure and simple....unscientific.
The problem is that you can't say in a prediction sort of way.....that they died via the particles business. You would have to go and examine the death certificate of every German who died in 2014, and then reach a conclusion that those with breathing issues caused their death, and they were linked to nitrogen dioxide particles.
In this case, I would even suggest that if you did come up with 6,000 death certificates which matched up.....the next question would be if they all lived in urbanized areas. If 700 of them lived in highly rural areas, or mountainous regions....then it'd probably lead to a faulty assessment.
Professor Morfeld even states in a blunt way....the data in the report simply can't be trusted.
This puts the national agency over the environment into a tough position, and invites more scientific discussion....something that the environmental folks probably won't be happy about. Judges stuck in this ban chatter by city leaders? I'm guessing that they are willing now to delay the individual city-ban business until this gets sorted out.
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
What I See in 2030 for Germany
Having been around Germany (off and on) since 1978....I've seen a fair number of changes, evolution, and transformation (some positive....some negative). So if I pull out my crystal ball, and project to 2030, these are my ten predictions of things to come:
1. The Green Party will edge out the CDU Party in the 2021 election, and send Robert Habeck to be Chancellor of Germany....for a brief four-year period. The coalition will be a Green-SPD-Linke Party situation.
2. After a fairly stunning and spiral (downward) period, the 2025 German national election will occur, and the AfD Party will be able to win the election with less than 25-percent of the vote. Voters will be disgruntled over the Greens, the SPD, and the CDU.....but find no real political solution. The AfD will not be able to form a government, and a weak marginalized Green Party will end up taking the leadership role, with majority of Germans negative about another four years of Habeck and the Greens.
3. The effort by ARD (public TV) to champion another rise out of the monthly TV-media tax (from 17.50 Euro a month to 18.50 Euro) in 2021....will ultimately fail. ARD will waltz around for two years and continually threaten to downsize 'something', and by 2023....will cut around one-third of public radio services, and refuse to bid on Olympic games coverage.....then find that no one really is bothered by either cut.
4. The German effort to halt all gas and diesel new car sales in 2030? Shockingly, they will find a large number of Germans going beyond the borders, buying slightly used gas/diesel cars, and importing back into Germany. Another law will be drafted with high import taxes to halt this. The tax will be challenged in court and fail via the EU court system. The effort to get the majority of Germans to battery-powered cars by 2030....will ultimately fail.
5. As coal and nuke power start to decrease rapidly....speculation will start to increase on how dependable the wind, solar, and hydro power grid can be. A majority of Germans will be paying double of the 2020 electrical cost in 2030. At least ten-percent of Germany's power needs will come via another country (via their nuke or coal-powered plants). The public will ask why, and receive virtually no answer from the government.
6. The US will have vacated all bases in Germany. The Kaiserslautern region will be hard-hit, and find almost no re-use of the local Army-Air Force installations.
7. At least a thousand communities/villages in Germany....which had a grocery store existing in 2010.....will not have a grocery store in operation in 2030.
8. An attempt to make Tasers legal for Germans to buy and carry on themselves.....will ultimately fail.
9. Still at 2030, deportation of failed-asylum seekers will be openly discussed as a major problem, with still no resolution.
10. By 2030, some Germans will be openly discussing why bother having a Bundestag existing, when the EU does basically everything required.
1. The Green Party will edge out the CDU Party in the 2021 election, and send Robert Habeck to be Chancellor of Germany....for a brief four-year period. The coalition will be a Green-SPD-Linke Party situation.
2. After a fairly stunning and spiral (downward) period, the 2025 German national election will occur, and the AfD Party will be able to win the election with less than 25-percent of the vote. Voters will be disgruntled over the Greens, the SPD, and the CDU.....but find no real political solution. The AfD will not be able to form a government, and a weak marginalized Green Party will end up taking the leadership role, with majority of Germans negative about another four years of Habeck and the Greens.
3. The effort by ARD (public TV) to champion another rise out of the monthly TV-media tax (from 17.50 Euro a month to 18.50 Euro) in 2021....will ultimately fail. ARD will waltz around for two years and continually threaten to downsize 'something', and by 2023....will cut around one-third of public radio services, and refuse to bid on Olympic games coverage.....then find that no one really is bothered by either cut.
4. The German effort to halt all gas and diesel new car sales in 2030? Shockingly, they will find a large number of Germans going beyond the borders, buying slightly used gas/diesel cars, and importing back into Germany. Another law will be drafted with high import taxes to halt this. The tax will be challenged in court and fail via the EU court system. The effort to get the majority of Germans to battery-powered cars by 2030....will ultimately fail.
5. As coal and nuke power start to decrease rapidly....speculation will start to increase on how dependable the wind, solar, and hydro power grid can be. A majority of Germans will be paying double of the 2020 electrical cost in 2030. At least ten-percent of Germany's power needs will come via another country (via their nuke or coal-powered plants). The public will ask why, and receive virtually no answer from the government.
6. The US will have vacated all bases in Germany. The Kaiserslautern region will be hard-hit, and find almost no re-use of the local Army-Air Force installations.
7. At least a thousand communities/villages in Germany....which had a grocery store existing in 2010.....will not have a grocery store in operation in 2030.
8. An attempt to make Tasers legal for Germans to buy and carry on themselves.....will ultimately fail.
9. Still at 2030, deportation of failed-asylum seekers will be openly discussed as a major problem, with still no resolution.
10. By 2030, some Germans will be openly discussing why bother having a Bundestag existing, when the EU does basically everything required.
Public TV in Germany
I will essay on occasion about public TV in Germany, and it's pluses, minuses, screw-ups, costs, and public frustrations. Up until the 1980s....you had no other choices but public TV. As commercial TV arrived (having to blast through the public TV roadblocks).....the public found that there were certain advantages with commercial TV.
Today, if you go out to the working-class public and the under-25-age group....you will find a fair amount of disenchantment going on with the public TV empire (under ARD). The monthly tax (17.50 Euro, or roughly $20) has gotten a growing number of people upset, and the chatter about another increase coming in 2021? Well....it's safe to say that more than one-third of German society want the situation minimized (meaning a decrease in public TV structure, and maybe a decrease in the TV/media tax).
So it got brought up today via N-TV (commercial news in Germany) that ARD (the controller of the 'empire')....has a paper that they privately use as their strategy paper, whenever talking or referencing the need to state their purpose in broadcasting.
The document name? The "Framing Manual".
It's a 89-page document which basically lays out how you always talk about the positives of the public service, and present good/strong arguments in support of it.
At some point, it even goes to suggest that the term 'charge' should be avoided when talking about the tax, and instead use the term 'our financial participation'.
Another objective in the document revolves around slogans. A good ARD slogan is "We are yours." There's even a suggestive slogan of "We take everyone seriously - even your grandmother." I laughed when I read that one, because it implies that the programming is mostly designed for a generation that is advancing in years.
For better or worse, the manual is a tool for management within ARD to continually state their need to exist, and that taxation must continue on (no doubt to increase). The hindrance for ARD and the public TV empire is that a growing number of young people simply don't view any of the public TV offerings. My German son (27 years old) will grin and readily admit that he hasn't watched a single hour of public TV offerings for at least 15 years. He will point bluntly at his associates who all share the same view....public TV in German has little to offer.
What the intellectuals at ARD missed back in the 1990s? Their formula of high-intellect topics, crime dramas, sports, public forum chats, game-shows, live TV interviews, and programming designed mostly for people over the age of fifty.....simply didn't sell to Germans under the age of thirty. When the governor's board went to ARD a couple of years ago, and told them they had to go and invent a sub-network to do fit entirely for the youth audience or face annihilation in the future.....they invented the network, and went entirely with data-streaming (you can't get the network off the satellite, cable or antenna). Behind the powercurve? Oh, by an entire decade.....they missed their opportunity.
Will this document get brought up in a ARD-produced public chat forum? Probably not.
It's just another sign of what is coming in the next decade, as enough voters stand up and pressure the TV tax to be kept at 17.50 Euro a month, and harsh talk by ARD about 'cuts' occur. At some point, the public will call their bluff, and just say fine....go cut Channel Two (ZDF) entirely, and proceed on. At that point, the management folks are in for a rough ride.
Today, if you go out to the working-class public and the under-25-age group....you will find a fair amount of disenchantment going on with the public TV empire (under ARD). The monthly tax (17.50 Euro, or roughly $20) has gotten a growing number of people upset, and the chatter about another increase coming in 2021? Well....it's safe to say that more than one-third of German society want the situation minimized (meaning a decrease in public TV structure, and maybe a decrease in the TV/media tax).
So it got brought up today via N-TV (commercial news in Germany) that ARD (the controller of the 'empire')....has a paper that they privately use as their strategy paper, whenever talking or referencing the need to state their purpose in broadcasting.
The document name? The "Framing Manual".
It's a 89-page document which basically lays out how you always talk about the positives of the public service, and present good/strong arguments in support of it.
At some point, it even goes to suggest that the term 'charge' should be avoided when talking about the tax, and instead use the term 'our financial participation'.
Another objective in the document revolves around slogans. A good ARD slogan is "We are yours." There's even a suggestive slogan of "We take everyone seriously - even your grandmother." I laughed when I read that one, because it implies that the programming is mostly designed for a generation that is advancing in years.
For better or worse, the manual is a tool for management within ARD to continually state their need to exist, and that taxation must continue on (no doubt to increase). The hindrance for ARD and the public TV empire is that a growing number of young people simply don't view any of the public TV offerings. My German son (27 years old) will grin and readily admit that he hasn't watched a single hour of public TV offerings for at least 15 years. He will point bluntly at his associates who all share the same view....public TV in German has little to offer.
What the intellectuals at ARD missed back in the 1990s? Their formula of high-intellect topics, crime dramas, sports, public forum chats, game-shows, live TV interviews, and programming designed mostly for people over the age of fifty.....simply didn't sell to Germans under the age of thirty. When the governor's board went to ARD a couple of years ago, and told them they had to go and invent a sub-network to do fit entirely for the youth audience or face annihilation in the future.....they invented the network, and went entirely with data-streaming (you can't get the network off the satellite, cable or antenna). Behind the powercurve? Oh, by an entire decade.....they missed their opportunity.
Will this document get brought up in a ARD-produced public chat forum? Probably not.
It's just another sign of what is coming in the next decade, as enough voters stand up and pressure the TV tax to be kept at 17.50 Euro a month, and harsh talk by ARD about 'cuts' occur. At some point, the public will call their bluff, and just say fine....go cut Channel Two (ZDF) entirely, and proceed on. At that point, the management folks are in for a rough ride.
The Car Tariff Discussion
If you follow German news over the past month, there is a lot of chatter/hype over this US talk of trade tariffs going up over imported cars into the US (Trump suggesting a 25-percent tariff).
So, it's a fascinating thing to watch German Minister of Economics, Pete Altmaier (CDU).....now heavily in the middle of this, and commenting almost nightly.
Let me lay out the beginning of this episode, so it makes more sense. At the very beginning of the Trump administration....there was a meeting around three weeks into the 'new' era, and Trump wanted to sit and chat on trade with Chancellor Merkel. What she did in a brilliant moment of Merkel-wisdom....was to say that she had no control over German trade, and that the EU was the one to discuss trade negotiations. Over and over.....same explanation.
It took maybe a month for Trump to finally size this up and say 'fine'.....it's just between me and the EU.
Well...a year into this, it's obvious at that point that the EU is doing their typical 'slow-ball' strategy. Trump said 'fine' again, and then went to the 25-percent car tariff idea.
Now, this gets interesting because of the 28 members of the EU....roughly 27 members of the EU are unaffected, and have little to no car imports into the US. The one country with car imports going on? Wanna guess? Yes, Germany.
So this blunt message was supposed to get EU attention. Well, no.....the EU kinda fell into a second message strategy....screw Germany.
At this point, the Merkel-crew (Altmaier included) begins to realize that Trump, with the aid of marginal EU talks....were going to have a disastrous impact on German industry. The Merkel effort to push everything toward the EU and suggest that Germany has no control over trade? Well.....Trump basically outplayed her strategy, and made German participation now a big deal.
What Trump is likely playing for? Zero tariffs in the EU (particularly in Germany) for vehicles, and you get the same deal in the US.
What the loss is for the Germans if they screw up this trade talk deal? Some folks suggest that the Germans will lose around 5-billion Euro (it's not a factual number, but more of an estimate of the cost upon German industry). The fact that this occurring in a BREXIT year? Yeah, it's a bigger deal because no one is sure about the UK market after BREXIT. Would Trump's team be there quickly after BREXIT and get a prime trade deal with the UK? Yeah, that's more than likely.
The curious thing, when this falls apart (if it does) is that Merkel can clearly blame Trump, but to be honest.....it's a Trump-EU-Merkel blame game, and the real losers are the German worker, and the German consumer. All that Merkel had to do back early on in 2017....was just go and discuss a zero-tariff situation between Germany and the US for car imports, and she just couldn't do it.
Sit back....enjoy the chatter, and be entertained.
So, it's a fascinating thing to watch German Minister of Economics, Pete Altmaier (CDU).....now heavily in the middle of this, and commenting almost nightly.
Let me lay out the beginning of this episode, so it makes more sense. At the very beginning of the Trump administration....there was a meeting around three weeks into the 'new' era, and Trump wanted to sit and chat on trade with Chancellor Merkel. What she did in a brilliant moment of Merkel-wisdom....was to say that she had no control over German trade, and that the EU was the one to discuss trade negotiations. Over and over.....same explanation.
It took maybe a month for Trump to finally size this up and say 'fine'.....it's just between me and the EU.
Well...a year into this, it's obvious at that point that the EU is doing their typical 'slow-ball' strategy. Trump said 'fine' again, and then went to the 25-percent car tariff idea.
Now, this gets interesting because of the 28 members of the EU....roughly 27 members of the EU are unaffected, and have little to no car imports into the US. The one country with car imports going on? Wanna guess? Yes, Germany.
So this blunt message was supposed to get EU attention. Well, no.....the EU kinda fell into a second message strategy....screw Germany.
At this point, the Merkel-crew (Altmaier included) begins to realize that Trump, with the aid of marginal EU talks....were going to have a disastrous impact on German industry. The Merkel effort to push everything toward the EU and suggest that Germany has no control over trade? Well.....Trump basically outplayed her strategy, and made German participation now a big deal.
What Trump is likely playing for? Zero tariffs in the EU (particularly in Germany) for vehicles, and you get the same deal in the US.
What the loss is for the Germans if they screw up this trade talk deal? Some folks suggest that the Germans will lose around 5-billion Euro (it's not a factual number, but more of an estimate of the cost upon German industry). The fact that this occurring in a BREXIT year? Yeah, it's a bigger deal because no one is sure about the UK market after BREXIT. Would Trump's team be there quickly after BREXIT and get a prime trade deal with the UK? Yeah, that's more than likely.
The curious thing, when this falls apart (if it does) is that Merkel can clearly blame Trump, but to be honest.....it's a Trump-EU-Merkel blame game, and the real losers are the German worker, and the German consumer. All that Merkel had to do back early on in 2017....was just go and discuss a zero-tariff situation between Germany and the US for car imports, and she just couldn't do it.
Sit back....enjoy the chatter, and be entertained.
ISIS Thugs, Germany, and the Left-Over Mess
Back in 2013, when ISIS started up their civil war in Syria....there were German citizens with a Muslim background who packed up and left for the civil war. It took about a year, but the Bundestag eventually reacted and made a law that said basically....'don't come back', and if you do come back....we will charge with a serious crime.
Well...as months passed, a fair number of these young men and women would drift off to the war (not just Germans, but French, Brit, etc), and find in a matter of weeks that the war was a terrible mess, and hopeless in countless ways. They were blocked in various ways from escaping and a lot of them endeared to the bitter end, where they are held today via a US-Kurd jail-system.
So President Trump said in a polite way....US occupation in the region is going to end, and the Kurds are left with this problem....they don't want the foreigners around. They haven't said that they'd execute them but they'd like for them to just leave.
So Trump suggested....European countries need to take their problem-children back...charge them....put them into prison, and relieve the Syrians of the problem.
What happens in Germany?
The general scripted answer is that the law says if you left for this civil war.....you will be charged if you return. I suspect a lot of these individuals would appreciate the charges, and the jail-time. If the Germans were smart, they'd go to a de-brain-washing episode, and try to bring these folks back to reality while in a controlled environment.
Are these civil war 'players' a threat? Well....the simple answer here is yes. Even if you de-program 90-percent and make them productive individuals after the civil war, you still have 10-percent who might filter through the prison system, and be a threat when they emerge from prison.
PTSD folks? That's the other part of this story. Some of these individuals survived a pretty horrific period (going up to five years), with time in the Kurd prison. They are stressed and it might take ten years to get them to a recovery stage.
So you come to the last part of this....politically, this is messed up. Working-class Germans aren't going to be happy about this, and will object to the task ahead. Their view will be that that ISIS thugs should not be brought back into Germany. The politicians? They'd rather not even think about this mess.
Well...as months passed, a fair number of these young men and women would drift off to the war (not just Germans, but French, Brit, etc), and find in a matter of weeks that the war was a terrible mess, and hopeless in countless ways. They were blocked in various ways from escaping and a lot of them endeared to the bitter end, where they are held today via a US-Kurd jail-system.
So President Trump said in a polite way....US occupation in the region is going to end, and the Kurds are left with this problem....they don't want the foreigners around. They haven't said that they'd execute them but they'd like for them to just leave.
So Trump suggested....European countries need to take their problem-children back...charge them....put them into prison, and relieve the Syrians of the problem.
What happens in Germany?
The general scripted answer is that the law says if you left for this civil war.....you will be charged if you return. I suspect a lot of these individuals would appreciate the charges, and the jail-time. If the Germans were smart, they'd go to a de-brain-washing episode, and try to bring these folks back to reality while in a controlled environment.
Are these civil war 'players' a threat? Well....the simple answer here is yes. Even if you de-program 90-percent and make them productive individuals after the civil war, you still have 10-percent who might filter through the prison system, and be a threat when they emerge from prison.
PTSD folks? That's the other part of this story. Some of these individuals survived a pretty horrific period (going up to five years), with time in the Kurd prison. They are stressed and it might take ten years to get them to a recovery stage.
So you come to the last part of this....politically, this is messed up. Working-class Germans aren't going to be happy about this, and will object to the task ahead. Their view will be that that ISIS thugs should not be brought back into Germany. The politicians? They'd rather not even think about this mess.
Monday, February 18, 2019
Germany in a Recession?
If you follow the business news for the past hundred days....it's been lightly talked about but the experts are blunt...there's just not much holding back the recession at this point.
Between US/UK trade disputes, along with cooling world economy....Germany is marginally above the zero-point.
The biggest damage if a recession is falling into play for Germany? Politicians have spent much of the past hundred days (particularly from the SPD Party)...talking about evolving the pension and social welfare business....of which cost money from the revenue pot. If the money isn't there.....the promises won't occur.
Blame toward BREXIT? Maybe a quarter of the blame can go toward that, and the unsure trading sphere for the rest of 2019. Yes, there are a minimum of 100,000 German jobs at risk, and no one is completely sure how the Brit trade situation will be in the period after BREXIT.
Between US/UK trade disputes, along with cooling world economy....Germany is marginally above the zero-point.
The biggest damage if a recession is falling into play for Germany? Politicians have spent much of the past hundred days (particularly from the SPD Party)...talking about evolving the pension and social welfare business....of which cost money from the revenue pot. If the money isn't there.....the promises won't occur.
Blame toward BREXIT? Maybe a quarter of the blame can go toward that, and the unsure trading sphere for the rest of 2019. Yes, there are a minimum of 100,000 German jobs at risk, and no one is completely sure how the Brit trade situation will be in the period after BREXIT.
Part-Time versus Full-Time: The Same?
This got up here in Germany over the weekend....as public forum chats are occurring over the SPD Party idea of remodeling the pension program.
For those who've been watching the 'event' of the past month.....the SPD folks are trying to make a case that pensions for the minimum wage folks (those who just never rose or got ahead in life) are set to a miserably low amount of money, and need the government to come in and pull money out of plain tax revenue (not the pension tax pot), and pump up the minimum social pension monthly check.
Most Germans will agree with the SPD premise.....the pension program has created a class of welfare retirees. But the same group is bothered that this is just another dip into regular tax revenue, and ensures some tax increase coming down the pike.
So the topic came up this weekend.....if you worked 35 years of your life as a somewhat reduced hour's individual (say part-time), then with the SPD idea as they advertise it.....you'd make the bump-up and be paid a social pension at the same level as a guy who'd worked 40 hours a week, for 35 years. In the fairness angle....it begs questions.
The sad thing to this whole discussion....if they'd had this back in 2010 to 2013, before the revenue pot had migration/immigration costs attached, there probably was sufficient money in the revenue pot to go and bring the minimum pension up to 900 Euro (roughly $1,100 a month). Once you go and add the increased cost, plus the money to Turkey and Libya to 'hold back' refugees....the budget and revenue pot are pushed into a difficult position. You could raise taxes, but there's at least five other programs that the SPD is talking about would require more money, and the taxation required....well, it's a pretty fair sum.
For those who've been watching the 'event' of the past month.....the SPD folks are trying to make a case that pensions for the minimum wage folks (those who just never rose or got ahead in life) are set to a miserably low amount of money, and need the government to come in and pull money out of plain tax revenue (not the pension tax pot), and pump up the minimum social pension monthly check.
Most Germans will agree with the SPD premise.....the pension program has created a class of welfare retirees. But the same group is bothered that this is just another dip into regular tax revenue, and ensures some tax increase coming down the pike.
So the topic came up this weekend.....if you worked 35 years of your life as a somewhat reduced hour's individual (say part-time), then with the SPD idea as they advertise it.....you'd make the bump-up and be paid a social pension at the same level as a guy who'd worked 40 hours a week, for 35 years. In the fairness angle....it begs questions.
The sad thing to this whole discussion....if they'd had this back in 2010 to 2013, before the revenue pot had migration/immigration costs attached, there probably was sufficient money in the revenue pot to go and bring the minimum pension up to 900 Euro (roughly $1,100 a month). Once you go and add the increased cost, plus the money to Turkey and Libya to 'hold back' refugees....the budget and revenue pot are pushed into a difficult position. You could raise taxes, but there's at least five other programs that the SPD is talking about would require more money, and the taxation required....well, it's a pretty fair sum.
Sunday, February 17, 2019
The Term 'Biedermeier'
The word 'Biedermeier' got mentioned today in the German news. It's a term that I hadn't read across before.....so I pulled out the research.
'Biedermeier' was invented for a particular era of Europe....between 1815 and 1850. Oddly enough, it came to be identified in two ways.
The first was a design, 'look', taste, musical effort, or fashion. It was a doorway or path to advancing changes. In simple terms, things were changing or evolving.
The second was a characterization that you'd use for a non-progressive type guy who was middle-class, happy, fairly content, but awful prone to frustrations when public events, economic conditions, or cultural things were happening or evolving without their input or support.
The word got around to being used a fair amount by German journalists in the second half of the century because of continual German government pressure/censorship, and usually signified a fairly negative view of government directed directions or behavior.
Are we living (in Germany) in a Biedermeier-era today? Well, this gets to being an interesting topic.
If you sat in a working-class pub and asked an average German, they'd say that a lot of thing frustrate them....from politics, to the economy....from crime, to immigration.....from youth, to pensions. They can generally tell you that things are crapped out, but the resolution or repair? That's not as simple to lay out.
Are we living (in Germany) in a Biedermeier-era because of government censorship? No. In fact, most might suggest that the public TV devices are helping to motivate and increase Biedermeier feelings.
'Biedermeier' was invented for a particular era of Europe....between 1815 and 1850. Oddly enough, it came to be identified in two ways.
The first was a design, 'look', taste, musical effort, or fashion. It was a doorway or path to advancing changes. In simple terms, things were changing or evolving.
The second was a characterization that you'd use for a non-progressive type guy who was middle-class, happy, fairly content, but awful prone to frustrations when public events, economic conditions, or cultural things were happening or evolving without their input or support.
The word got around to being used a fair amount by German journalists in the second half of the century because of continual German government pressure/censorship, and usually signified a fairly negative view of government directed directions or behavior.
Are we living (in Germany) in a Biedermeier-era today? Well, this gets to being an interesting topic.
If you sat in a working-class pub and asked an average German, they'd say that a lot of thing frustrate them....from politics, to the economy....from crime, to immigration.....from youth, to pensions. They can generally tell you that things are crapped out, but the resolution or repair? That's not as simple to lay out.
Are we living (in Germany) in a Biedermeier-era because of government censorship? No. In fact, most might suggest that the public TV devices are helping to motivate and increase Biedermeier feelings.
Trumps Challenge to the EU
Germany's N-TV brought up this topic here in the AM today, and it's a curious discussion piece.
So, for the most part, the ISIS war in Syria and Iraq is over. Yet, the two countries have this unique problem....roughly 800 members of ISIS in this prisoner situation....hold European citizenship. For Syria and Iraq.....they'd just like to be rid of the group. Some, we should note....are women (young ladies).
Well....President Trump pulled out the 'ace' card and basically told the Europeans.....they ought to go, and take the 800 back (bringing them to justice). His suggestion was to use legal means to charge them in court, and imprison them if convicted.
The countries? UK, Germany, France, etc.
This is something that most of them would prefer not to get into. Even if you did the court action and the conviction held up....eventually all of the 800 would be released. I agree...it might be 20 years away, but that's the most that any of them would receive.
The method that ought to be used? The EU court system or the International Court of Justice. Either could be built to take the 800 Europeans and it'd be a ethical situation that would dig individual countries out of this mess.
If Syria and Iraq just release the 800? I would speculate that within a year....all of them will have found some way to re-enter their old country and connect back to various Islamic support groups. None of this would turn out in a positive way.
So, for the most part, the ISIS war in Syria and Iraq is over. Yet, the two countries have this unique problem....roughly 800 members of ISIS in this prisoner situation....hold European citizenship. For Syria and Iraq.....they'd just like to be rid of the group. Some, we should note....are women (young ladies).
Well....President Trump pulled out the 'ace' card and basically told the Europeans.....they ought to go, and take the 800 back (bringing them to justice). His suggestion was to use legal means to charge them in court, and imprison them if convicted.
The countries? UK, Germany, France, etc.
This is something that most of them would prefer not to get into. Even if you did the court action and the conviction held up....eventually all of the 800 would be released. I agree...it might be 20 years away, but that's the most that any of them would receive.
The method that ought to be used? The EU court system or the International Court of Justice. Either could be built to take the 800 Europeans and it'd be a ethical situation that would dig individual countries out of this mess.
If Syria and Iraq just release the 800? I would speculate that within a year....all of them will have found some way to re-enter their old country and connect back to various Islamic support groups. None of this would turn out in a positive way.
Saturday, February 16, 2019
New Requirement for German Driver's LIcenses
A couple of years ago, the EU got into the scheme of driver's licenses and mandated that they all needed to be one single standard.
ARD (public TV, Channel One) brought up the new regulations determined by the German government this week. They mandated 19 January 2033 to be the end-point of this license exchange business.
Roughly 43-million Germans will have to get a new license. But this is rigged up in a staggered method. Born between 1953 and 1958, you need to do it by 19 January 1922. Born between 1959 to 1964, you have until 19 January 2023 to exchange your old license. Born between 1965 and 1970, you have until 19 January 2024. Born from 1971 on, you have until 19 January 2025.
New testing? NO. Just pay down 25 Euro and provide a photo.
The most significant change? Well, in the past, they were unlimited in terms of duration....meaning a 75-year old guy had a 55-year old license in his possession. The new license deal will limit it to 15 years.
ARD (public TV, Channel One) brought up the new regulations determined by the German government this week. They mandated 19 January 2033 to be the end-point of this license exchange business.
Roughly 43-million Germans will have to get a new license. But this is rigged up in a staggered method. Born between 1953 and 1958, you need to do it by 19 January 1922. Born between 1959 to 1964, you have until 19 January 2023 to exchange your old license. Born between 1965 and 1970, you have until 19 January 2024. Born from 1971 on, you have until 19 January 2025.
New testing? NO. Just pay down 25 Euro and provide a photo.
The most significant change? Well, in the past, they were unlimited in terms of duration....meaning a 75-year old guy had a 55-year old license in his possession. The new license deal will limit it to 15 years.
Friday, February 15, 2019
Bundesrat in the News Today
For those who aren't aware of Germany's form of government.....between Chancellor Merkel, and the Bundstag, and the sixteen German states.....there is the Bundesrat (basically the Federal Council, or comparable to the US Senate).
The Bundesrat is designed in a different manner....they represent the states (16) themselves. Each state, based on population is allowed x-number of representatives. For example....Lower Saxony, Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, and NRW....have six members each. The Saarland, Hamburg, and Bremen have three members each.
There are no public elections for the Bundesrat....it's a formation of whatever government each state has leading it, and there is an agreement with coalition parties of that government to numbers of seats they will get.
This morning, it came up in the news....via ARD (public TV, Channel One).
The Bundestag (with Chancellor Merkel) would like to move forward today and declare that the countries of Tunisia, Georgia, Algeria, and Morocco....are safe.
If they were agreed upon by the Bundesrat, then BamF organization (they handle deportation paperwork) and the sixteen states would have to move and deport individuals 'easily' back to their home-countries.
Curiously, the Greens hold a number of seats in the Bundesrat, and they've said in a blunt way....no, these countries are not safe, so therefore, you can't deport people back to these countries.
Without the state votes, this measure won't pass.
It's a mixed bag of discussion topics. As long as these countries are deemed 'dangerous'.....people can get temporary refuge in Germany. Oddly, thousands of Germans on a monthly basis go off on vacation trips to Morocco and Tunisia. They lay out on Tunisian beaches, and shop in public shops of Morocco. It's less so for Georgia, but there are probably two dozen flights a day (some direct....some with a hub connection). You have to figure that at least 300 Germans a week are making the trip there, with the idea it's a fairly safe place to go. Algeria? It might be a valid case, but you just rarely ever hear anything brought up by the news media.
My general feeling....if you want to say it's dangerous there for in-country folks.....you might want to say it's TOO dangerous there for Germans to make a tourist vacation there. That would be the logical idea.
The Greens in this case? I think they are drawing public attention, and those who worry about lack of deportation....see the Green Party as a problem.
The Bundesrat is designed in a different manner....they represent the states (16) themselves. Each state, based on population is allowed x-number of representatives. For example....Lower Saxony, Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, and NRW....have six members each. The Saarland, Hamburg, and Bremen have three members each.
There are no public elections for the Bundesrat....it's a formation of whatever government each state has leading it, and there is an agreement with coalition parties of that government to numbers of seats they will get.
This morning, it came up in the news....via ARD (public TV, Channel One).
The Bundestag (with Chancellor Merkel) would like to move forward today and declare that the countries of Tunisia, Georgia, Algeria, and Morocco....are safe.
If they were agreed upon by the Bundesrat, then BamF organization (they handle deportation paperwork) and the sixteen states would have to move and deport individuals 'easily' back to their home-countries.
Curiously, the Greens hold a number of seats in the Bundesrat, and they've said in a blunt way....no, these countries are not safe, so therefore, you can't deport people back to these countries.
Without the state votes, this measure won't pass.
It's a mixed bag of discussion topics. As long as these countries are deemed 'dangerous'.....people can get temporary refuge in Germany. Oddly, thousands of Germans on a monthly basis go off on vacation trips to Morocco and Tunisia. They lay out on Tunisian beaches, and shop in public shops of Morocco. It's less so for Georgia, but there are probably two dozen flights a day (some direct....some with a hub connection). You have to figure that at least 300 Germans a week are making the trip there, with the idea it's a fairly safe place to go. Algeria? It might be a valid case, but you just rarely ever hear anything brought up by the news media.
My general feeling....if you want to say it's dangerous there for in-country folks.....you might want to say it's TOO dangerous there for Germans to make a tourist vacation there. That would be the logical idea.
The Greens in this case? I think they are drawing public attention, and those who worry about lack of deportation....see the Green Party as a problem.
Crime and Numbers
I often talk about crime in Germany, which in recent years.....has shown some decrease. The story got brought up in regional Hessen (my state) news this morning, via HR (our regional TV public network).
Roughly 372k crimes were reported in Hessen for 2018. That's down almost 1-percent over 2017's numbers.
In the middle of their crimes talk....the cops pointed out one curious number....if you take regular street crime (property damage, pickpocketing and assaults).....it's going down almost 7-percent (more or less) every single year. If you used 1998 numbers from Hessen.....we have half as much crime going on today (across the entire state), as we did in 1998.
Then came the cherry on the cake.....the cops wanted you to know that in 2019 and 2020.....they are adding additional manpower....900 additional cops are being hired, over the current number now.
Yet people are hyped up and have the basic idea that since 2013 (the year that the migration business took off)....that crime took off as well. It's just NOT a proven fact. If anything, some numbers out there demonstrate that after the Wall came down....with the ease of entering Germany, crime gangs escalated and became entrenched in various metropolitan areas of the nation. Part of the problem is that news media organizations (from TV to print media and Facebook) talk routinely about crime. People have the opinion that it's bigger than the facts suggest.
Roughly 372k crimes were reported in Hessen for 2018. That's down almost 1-percent over 2017's numbers.
In the middle of their crimes talk....the cops pointed out one curious number....if you take regular street crime (property damage, pickpocketing and assaults).....it's going down almost 7-percent (more or less) every single year. If you used 1998 numbers from Hessen.....we have half as much crime going on today (across the entire state), as we did in 1998.
Then came the cherry on the cake.....the cops wanted you to know that in 2019 and 2020.....they are adding additional manpower....900 additional cops are being hired, over the current number now.
Yet people are hyped up and have the basic idea that since 2013 (the year that the migration business took off)....that crime took off as well. It's just NOT a proven fact. If anything, some numbers out there demonstrate that after the Wall came down....with the ease of entering Germany, crime gangs escalated and became entrenched in various metropolitan areas of the nation. Part of the problem is that news media organizations (from TV to print media and Facebook) talk routinely about crime. People have the opinion that it's bigger than the facts suggest.
Chat Forum Show
Last night, ZDF (public TV, Channel Two) ran one of it's public forum chat shows.....'Maybrit Illner'.
The subject? They brought on representatives from the SPD Party, the Linke Party and the FDP Party, and then got to the subject of welfare/retirement reform. Just about everyone in the group was agreeable to the idea that Hartz IV (the German welfare program for over fifteen years now) has reached a failure point. The problem is.....if you did remodel or renovate it....how much, and where does the money come from.
At some key point, the FDP guy (Christian Lindner) made the blunt statement....that it's basically a fight now between the communist social front and capitalism. The quote was: "We only talk around the edges of society....the refugees and the extremely wealthy."
To this, Lidner is correct.....the political bickering of the past year or two is centered chiefly on two things that cannot be fixed or resolved: immigration/asylum/refugees, and a budget which cannot be grown to handle the poorly designed pension or welfare situation in Germany. No one wants to make the migrants/immigrants unhappy, and no one wants to cut on the industry folks or wealthy class for most cash to fund the government. Yet the media goes back to these every single night.
It's an interesting dilemma. You've got the bulk of the working-class looking at nightly news reports, and hyped up on resolving these two significant issues, and the blunt truth is....neither can be resolved.
At some point, the Linke Party gal did suggest a massive cut on the military budget to funnel money to just correct child welfare issues, but you could sense that this amount of money really couldn't fill the pension pot or the welfare pot.....to correct the massive problem existing.
So I come to the last observation over the forum.....the three politicians were often caught by the camera as having either an angry look, or a fearful frown. I got the impression that all three were unhappy being there or talking over this subject.
The subject? They brought on representatives from the SPD Party, the Linke Party and the FDP Party, and then got to the subject of welfare/retirement reform. Just about everyone in the group was agreeable to the idea that Hartz IV (the German welfare program for over fifteen years now) has reached a failure point. The problem is.....if you did remodel or renovate it....how much, and where does the money come from.
At some key point, the FDP guy (Christian Lindner) made the blunt statement....that it's basically a fight now between the communist social front and capitalism. The quote was: "We only talk around the edges of society....the refugees and the extremely wealthy."
To this, Lidner is correct.....the political bickering of the past year or two is centered chiefly on two things that cannot be fixed or resolved: immigration/asylum/refugees, and a budget which cannot be grown to handle the poorly designed pension or welfare situation in Germany. No one wants to make the migrants/immigrants unhappy, and no one wants to cut on the industry folks or wealthy class for most cash to fund the government. Yet the media goes back to these every single night.
It's an interesting dilemma. You've got the bulk of the working-class looking at nightly news reports, and hyped up on resolving these two significant issues, and the blunt truth is....neither can be resolved.
At some point, the Linke Party gal did suggest a massive cut on the military budget to funnel money to just correct child welfare issues, but you could sense that this amount of money really couldn't fill the pension pot or the welfare pot.....to correct the massive problem existing.
So I come to the last observation over the forum.....the three politicians were often caught by the camera as having either an angry look, or a fearful frown. I got the impression that all three were unhappy being there or talking over this subject.
Thursday, February 14, 2019
The Doper Story
I essayed a couple of pieces back in August and September of last year over a assault/murder in Chemnitz, Germany. A German guy ended up dead....and two guys (a Syrian and a Iraqi) ended up being the prime suspects.
This event, for the record, occurred at 2:30 AM (typically a time when people do stupid things).
Well.....Focus (the German news magazine brought it up today) says the cops have a pretty complete story laid out now. And there's cocaine in the mix of the assault/murder.
The Iraqi and the German (now dead), both had cocaine traces.
There's some moment of a chat between them, and something is said (no one is sure about what). A knife comes into the conflict. Based on the cops story, there has to be multiple knives, but so far, they only have one single knife in their possession.
Right now, the court has yet to reach an opinion on the precise charge. Reporting indicates a decision is likely to come by mid-March.
So you could have a doped-up German who said something to trigger the doped-up Iraqi and Syrian, and they reacted stupidly, with a deadly assault.....then have a whole community in some massive uproar for a week or two....with journalists hyped about xenophobia.....all about dopers out at 2:30 in the morning? Yeah. That's pretty much the script of this story....a bunch of politicians all hyped up for some anti-right-wing agenda, and tense talk....all because of cocaine dopers.
This event, for the record, occurred at 2:30 AM (typically a time when people do stupid things).
Well.....Focus (the German news magazine brought it up today) says the cops have a pretty complete story laid out now. And there's cocaine in the mix of the assault/murder.
The Iraqi and the German (now dead), both had cocaine traces.
There's some moment of a chat between them, and something is said (no one is sure about what). A knife comes into the conflict. Based on the cops story, there has to be multiple knives, but so far, they only have one single knife in their possession.
Right now, the court has yet to reach an opinion on the precise charge. Reporting indicates a decision is likely to come by mid-March.
So you could have a doped-up German who said something to trigger the doped-up Iraqi and Syrian, and they reacted stupidly, with a deadly assault.....then have a whole community in some massive uproar for a week or two....with journalists hyped about xenophobia.....all about dopers out at 2:30 in the morning? Yeah. That's pretty much the script of this story....a bunch of politicians all hyped up for some anti-right-wing agenda, and tense talk....all because of cocaine dopers.
Break-in Story
From various sources, but I'll cite SWR (public TV) for the main part of the story.....four 'gentlemen' felt compelled to go and break into a house in the Landstuhl area. The house was occupied by an American civilian who works for the US Army. He, his wife, and kids were at home while the four 'gentlemen' were attempting a door entry.
Somewhere in the mix of things, the wife hears the commotion downstairs, and comes down. Realizing the danger....she runs back upstairs to ensure the safety of the kid. One of the German guys gives chase and is attempting to hold onto her. The American guy went into defense mode....grabbed a kitchen knife and stabbed the first robber. The wife got into the episode, and there was enough of a mess now....that the three robbers grabbed their associate and left (via car).
Somewhere down the road, in Krickenbach, about 15 minutes away.....they determined that their wounded associate was in bad shape, and they dumped him (with the brother) on the city street there. The brother of the wounded guy....told witnesses to call for an ambulance.
The wounded guy died shortly after that. The brother? He was picked up later by the cops.
An intense review by the police has occurred and it appears that the American is cleared....it was self-defense. The other two guys? Cops are still looking for them. Nationalities? The dead guy and his brother are Germans....less is known about the other two.
This type of break-in? It's just awful rare that 'bold' break-in's like this occur in Germany. The general tactic that you see in Germany is that robbers will only move onto a house where they are sure that the occupants are not at home. Most break-in's have one or two individuals involved. So it begs questions how these four went to an alternate strategy. They may have had some idea of a safe or gold-stash being involved.
The million-dollar quote? The American, when interviewed by Stars and Stripes reporters....went to describe the situation, and then said 'fought like hell'.
Somewhere in the mix of things, the wife hears the commotion downstairs, and comes down. Realizing the danger....she runs back upstairs to ensure the safety of the kid. One of the German guys gives chase and is attempting to hold onto her. The American guy went into defense mode....grabbed a kitchen knife and stabbed the first robber. The wife got into the episode, and there was enough of a mess now....that the three robbers grabbed their associate and left (via car).
Somewhere down the road, in Krickenbach, about 15 minutes away.....they determined that their wounded associate was in bad shape, and they dumped him (with the brother) on the city street there. The brother of the wounded guy....told witnesses to call for an ambulance.
The wounded guy died shortly after that. The brother? He was picked up later by the cops.
An intense review by the police has occurred and it appears that the American is cleared....it was self-defense. The other two guys? Cops are still looking for them. Nationalities? The dead guy and his brother are Germans....less is known about the other two.
This type of break-in? It's just awful rare that 'bold' break-in's like this occur in Germany. The general tactic that you see in Germany is that robbers will only move onto a house where they are sure that the occupants are not at home. Most break-in's have one or two individuals involved. So it begs questions how these four went to an alternate strategy. They may have had some idea of a safe or gold-stash being involved.
The million-dollar quote? The American, when interviewed by Stars and Stripes reporters....went to describe the situation, and then said 'fought like hell'.
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Wiesbaden Diesel Car Shocker
Around noon today, local news (Wiesbadenaktuell)....came up and said the local court had the diesel ban episode dropped.
Commentary? Well....they just say that the environmental group pursuing this came up and said 'enough'.....they wanted to drop it.
Logical? No.
I suspect that politically, politicians came to the environmental group and just said....there's a ton of voters out there who are frustrated about where this is going, and it's harming our voting potential (suggesting the SPD, and CDU folks). If you force the ban, we all get screwed big-time.
So a diesel car ban in Wiesbaden? No....won't happen.
Commentary? Well....they just say that the environmental group pursuing this came up and said 'enough'.....they wanted to drop it.
Logical? No.
I suspect that politically, politicians came to the environmental group and just said....there's a ton of voters out there who are frustrated about where this is going, and it's harming our voting potential (suggesting the SPD, and CDU folks). If you force the ban, we all get screwed big-time.
So a diesel car ban in Wiesbaden? No....won't happen.
Diesel Update
It is a bit of a shocker, and yet to be clearly laid out by the journalists.
Via Focus news magazine, I noted this morning that the EU crowd has spoken to a commission recommendation over nitrogen oxide (diesel particles).
As you know, if you follow German news, we've got a major mess with diesel car bans being discussed in major urbanized regions in Germany.....all leading back to a EU law which says that 40 micrograms is the MAX you can have in a city for clean air. Anything above that....brings on EU force and cities then work to ban vehicles (at least they talk about it).
Well....the commission is now suggesting the new limit value for nitrogen oxide in Germany be increased to 50 micrograms.
Does that decrease the diesel car ban chatter going on? No one says much right now. My guess is that it might continue to be a ban on category 4 type diesel cars (those near 15 or more years old). The newer category five type diesel cars? They might be skip through the mess.
So all this hype over the ban, and frustration by the diesel car owners? Over? That's the curious thing. Maybe the EU idiots realized that a huge bit of anger was coming at the point of the EU election in May, and they could resolve this by just adding 10 more micrograms to the rule.
Via Focus news magazine, I noted this morning that the EU crowd has spoken to a commission recommendation over nitrogen oxide (diesel particles).
As you know, if you follow German news, we've got a major mess with diesel car bans being discussed in major urbanized regions in Germany.....all leading back to a EU law which says that 40 micrograms is the MAX you can have in a city for clean air. Anything above that....brings on EU force and cities then work to ban vehicles (at least they talk about it).
Well....the commission is now suggesting the new limit value for nitrogen oxide in Germany be increased to 50 micrograms.
Does that decrease the diesel car ban chatter going on? No one says much right now. My guess is that it might continue to be a ban on category 4 type diesel cars (those near 15 or more years old). The newer category five type diesel cars? They might be skip through the mess.
So all this hype over the ban, and frustration by the diesel car owners? Over? That's the curious thing. Maybe the EU idiots realized that a huge bit of anger was coming at the point of the EU election in May, and they could resolve this by just adding 10 more micrograms to the rule.
The Good Socialist
He was the good socialist.
Right up front, he wanted the government to guarantee the right for all citizens....to adequate employment opportunities.
He wanted a standard of living or basic wage, where people were taken care.
He stated in a clear voice, the needs of the community should outweigh the needs of the individual.
He made it clear....profits of a company should only reach a certain stage, and everything else....had to shared out to the workers of the company, or distributed to the citizens. There were to be no wealthy companies or wealthy individuals.
He stated as a national policy.....the welfare of the senior citizens should be guaranteed.
He spoke on numerous times about the need for regulations and laws to exist....protecting the state, it's lands, and property.
He wanted the government to be in the middle and always ensuring lowest possible interest rates and mortgage situations. It was the government's business.....not banks....to protect the public.
He noted on various occasions to protect the farming community, and to ensure a national food pathway was guaranteed. Food safety and good cheap prices for everyone, was to be the national policy.
He wanted the government to help control rent and prevent profits among property or apartment building owners.
He wanted the government to help build cheap apartment housing.
He wanted to prevent speculation on land and property.
He wanted hate-crimes to be prosecuted in the court system.
He wanted culture of all ethnic groups of society to be respected and honored.
He wanted a national system of education, with mandated classes and education requirements. This was not the job of local or state leadership, but from the national leadership.
He wanted all children to be given education and skilcraft. In essence, he promoted free college for all.
He wanted for the priority of the nation to raise the standards of national health by providing adequate hospitals, clinics, doctors, nurses, and care.
He talked to a national priority to help increase physical fitness and dietary requirements of the public, to help make society-at-large better and healthier.
He would talk at length about working for the common good....before the individual good. The nation in his mind, should stand against materialistic spirits which create unfair wealth and class divisions.
He was a good socialist (sarcastically spoken of course). All of the items listed above, came from the 1930-1932 Nazi Party political platform.
He was....Adolf Hitler.
Right up front, he wanted the government to guarantee the right for all citizens....to adequate employment opportunities.
He wanted a standard of living or basic wage, where people were taken care.
He stated in a clear voice, the needs of the community should outweigh the needs of the individual.
He made it clear....profits of a company should only reach a certain stage, and everything else....had to shared out to the workers of the company, or distributed to the citizens. There were to be no wealthy companies or wealthy individuals.
He stated as a national policy.....the welfare of the senior citizens should be guaranteed.
He spoke on numerous times about the need for regulations and laws to exist....protecting the state, it's lands, and property.
He wanted the government to be in the middle and always ensuring lowest possible interest rates and mortgage situations. It was the government's business.....not banks....to protect the public.
He noted on various occasions to protect the farming community, and to ensure a national food pathway was guaranteed. Food safety and good cheap prices for everyone, was to be the national policy.
He wanted the government to help control rent and prevent profits among property or apartment building owners.
He wanted the government to help build cheap apartment housing.
He wanted to prevent speculation on land and property.
He wanted hate-crimes to be prosecuted in the court system.
He wanted culture of all ethnic groups of society to be respected and honored.
He wanted a national system of education, with mandated classes and education requirements. This was not the job of local or state leadership, but from the national leadership.
He wanted all children to be given education and skilcraft. In essence, he promoted free college for all.
He wanted for the priority of the nation to raise the standards of national health by providing adequate hospitals, clinics, doctors, nurses, and care.
He talked to a national priority to help increase physical fitness and dietary requirements of the public, to help make society-at-large better and healthier.
He would talk at length about working for the common good....before the individual good. The nation in his mind, should stand against materialistic spirits which create unfair wealth and class divisions.
He was a good socialist (sarcastically spoken of course). All of the items listed above, came from the 1930-1932 Nazi Party political platform.
He was....Adolf Hitler.
German Driver's Test Story
For those who've never been through the German driver's exam business....it's a colossal 'pain'. In 1978, I arrived with a US license and was given a 50-page pamphlet (all in English) and told to prep myself over the weekend, and take the US military-Europe driving class on Monday....with the test shortly before lunch. They (the military) had the deal that if you just passed the sign test, and the hundred-odd general rule test....then you didn't need to do an actual physical or road test.
The sign-test proved to be a fairly significant deal, with a time-limit. There's probably over 150 different signs....some of which you might only notice once in an entire year. I marginally passed this test. At least a quarter of the group failed it, and were to return in two days to attempt this again.
The general rule test was less complicated but you had to memorize the forty-odd intersection scenarios, where horse-pulled wagons, tractors, trucks, bicyclists, and cars were to meet, and who turned first and what direction. The round-about or traffic circle business? For an American in 1978, this was simply rocket-science, and difficult to grasp. The study booklet made the difference because it was written for a 12-year-old kid to read, with diagrams. I easily passed this test, and the German guy running the base drivers program typed up my drivers license, and it was done.
A week later, I had to driver off-base and came quickly to the reality that there were twenty things which they'd failed to mention or that I was prepared for. Urbanized driving in the Frankfurt area? That was the chief problem which I failed to grasp. Later in the 1990s, as I arrived in the Bitburg region, with rural surroundings and limited traffic....my anxiety level diminished.
Today, especially with the introduction of GPS 'toys', getting around Germany and following the driver's guidance, is not a big deal.
I sat and watched ARD news this morning (public TV, Channel One), and there was a brief piece over German driver's test exams. It's an interesting development. Failure rates on the exams have escalated.
On the written exam.....39-percent of the folks taking the test failed, on the first go-around. On the drive exam (the practical)....it's at 32-percent of failure.
Why? They go through and basically give three issues.
First, they admit in the video part of the test....it's now developed to a highly complex scenario 'game', and you have to make a lightning fast decision, which people are unprepared for.
Second, while you can now take the test in one of twelve languages....there are a fair number of people who don't speak any of the 12 languages to the proficiency required for the driver's test. With immigration going on and significant numbers of foreigners taking the exam....it's now an issue.
Finally, there is the suggestion that young people of today (compared to young people of the 1970s or 1980s)....simply aren't prepared for the stress of the test.
Resolutions to improve the scoring? They are reviewing things, but other than changing the complexity of the scenario 'game', or adding five or six languages to the testing.....there's a limited number of things they can do.
The sign-test proved to be a fairly significant deal, with a time-limit. There's probably over 150 different signs....some of which you might only notice once in an entire year. I marginally passed this test. At least a quarter of the group failed it, and were to return in two days to attempt this again.
The general rule test was less complicated but you had to memorize the forty-odd intersection scenarios, where horse-pulled wagons, tractors, trucks, bicyclists, and cars were to meet, and who turned first and what direction. The round-about or traffic circle business? For an American in 1978, this was simply rocket-science, and difficult to grasp. The study booklet made the difference because it was written for a 12-year-old kid to read, with diagrams. I easily passed this test, and the German guy running the base drivers program typed up my drivers license, and it was done.
A week later, I had to driver off-base and came quickly to the reality that there were twenty things which they'd failed to mention or that I was prepared for. Urbanized driving in the Frankfurt area? That was the chief problem which I failed to grasp. Later in the 1990s, as I arrived in the Bitburg region, with rural surroundings and limited traffic....my anxiety level diminished.
Today, especially with the introduction of GPS 'toys', getting around Germany and following the driver's guidance, is not a big deal.
I sat and watched ARD news this morning (public TV, Channel One), and there was a brief piece over German driver's test exams. It's an interesting development. Failure rates on the exams have escalated.
On the written exam.....39-percent of the folks taking the test failed, on the first go-around. On the drive exam (the practical)....it's at 32-percent of failure.
Why? They go through and basically give three issues.
First, they admit in the video part of the test....it's now developed to a highly complex scenario 'game', and you have to make a lightning fast decision, which people are unprepared for.
Second, while you can now take the test in one of twelve languages....there are a fair number of people who don't speak any of the 12 languages to the proficiency required for the driver's test. With immigration going on and significant numbers of foreigners taking the exam....it's now an issue.
Finally, there is the suggestion that young people of today (compared to young people of the 1970s or 1980s)....simply aren't prepared for the stress of the test.
Resolutions to improve the scoring? They are reviewing things, but other than changing the complexity of the scenario 'game', or adding five or six languages to the testing.....there's a limited number of things they can do.
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Drone-Taxis?
The topic came up today, via our regional major airport in Frankfurt (about 30 minutes away from my house). FRAPORT, the company, runs the airport (as a private entity).
The management folks at the airport have this nifty idea.....they want to take up the idea of a drone-taxi service....basically a small helicopter-like vehicle.....no pilot....big enough for two guys and two medium cases.
The process here? Totally unknown, and on the cutting edge of technology.
One assumes that a large courtyard in the city of Frankfurt would be set aside, and a drone-vehicle service set up with three or four of these drone-taxis ready to take off. You'd walk out to the vehicle....load up.....a signal would set the drone to turn on, and off you'd go on a 8-minute ride to a pad area on the east side of the runway, and you'd enter security for your flight.
Fuel? No one says much, but it might be battery-driven.
Cost? Unknown. I would imagine that they'd try to make this reasonable and in the 100-Euro range per person. Currently in a regular taxi, from mid or east Frankfurt, you'd be talking about 35-Euro.
Time? Well, this is the odd factor. You can already walk into the train station and board the subway car to the airport....getting there in roughly 20 minutes. So I don't see a big positive over this deal.
The safety factor....with the helicopter pilot? You'd have to go and convince the public that it's 100-percent safe and nothing bad can happen. For some reason, I just don't see 95-percent of Germans buying off on that safety idea.
Could this expand out to Wiesbaden? No one suggests that but if it worked for a 8-minute flight from Frankfurt-City to the airport.....why not a 16-minute flight from Wiesbaden to the airport? Would I pay 100 Euro to reach the airport? No....since I can do the subway ride for around eight Euro....why use the drone?
The curious thing I see is this door opening up where you could buy a drone-helicopter, and set the pick-up and deliver aspects into the software (say in 2040 for example), and never be qualified as a pilot. Each morning, I'd walk out to the drone and have it deliver me to the office. Each night, I'd return the same way. It just looks to me like a big door is opening with tons of potential....way down the line.
The management folks at the airport have this nifty idea.....they want to take up the idea of a drone-taxi service....basically a small helicopter-like vehicle.....no pilot....big enough for two guys and two medium cases.
The process here? Totally unknown, and on the cutting edge of technology.
One assumes that a large courtyard in the city of Frankfurt would be set aside, and a drone-vehicle service set up with three or four of these drone-taxis ready to take off. You'd walk out to the vehicle....load up.....a signal would set the drone to turn on, and off you'd go on a 8-minute ride to a pad area on the east side of the runway, and you'd enter security for your flight.
Fuel? No one says much, but it might be battery-driven.
Cost? Unknown. I would imagine that they'd try to make this reasonable and in the 100-Euro range per person. Currently in a regular taxi, from mid or east Frankfurt, you'd be talking about 35-Euro.
Time? Well, this is the odd factor. You can already walk into the train station and board the subway car to the airport....getting there in roughly 20 minutes. So I don't see a big positive over this deal.
The safety factor....with the helicopter pilot? You'd have to go and convince the public that it's 100-percent safe and nothing bad can happen. For some reason, I just don't see 95-percent of Germans buying off on that safety idea.
Could this expand out to Wiesbaden? No one suggests that but if it worked for a 8-minute flight from Frankfurt-City to the airport.....why not a 16-minute flight from Wiesbaden to the airport? Would I pay 100 Euro to reach the airport? No....since I can do the subway ride for around eight Euro....why use the drone?
The curious thing I see is this door opening up where you could buy a drone-helicopter, and set the pick-up and deliver aspects into the software (say in 2040 for example), and never be qualified as a pilot. Each morning, I'd walk out to the drone and have it deliver me to the office. Each night, I'd return the same way. It just looks to me like a big door is opening with tons of potential....way down the line.
The 260,000 A Year Story
I essay a good bit over the declining birth-rate of Germany, and what it really 'means'. Today, Deutsche Welle picked up the topic and talked to a new study done by the Bertelsmann Foundation. They've been around for forty years and tend to be recognized as a pretty decent think-tank operation.
So the numbers got crunched. Germany would have to go out and actively recruit 260,000 migrant-workers every single year for at least forty years, to meet the decline.
In pure numbers, if Germany does nothing....they'd easily find themselves missing 16-million workers by 2060. It's a situation that industry and finance cannot allow to happen.
Harsh reality? More or less. But here's the thing....when they say 260,000 migrant workers....they aren't talking about family members....they are talking about 260,000 actual workers. So the real math here would mean at least 400,000 a year (wives, husbands, kids) need to be on some entry path.
Added to this, they aren't saying they want 260,000 burger-flippers, or cleaning ladies. The hype here should be individuals with work skills, university time, and craftsmanship talents....that can easily fit into the workplace within a year or two.
A real plan to 'recruit'? No. There is no such plan. That's the humorous part of the German 'open-door' policy.....you could easily end up with fifty-percent of the incoming crowd having no more than basic skills to run a apple-cart, or stocking shelves, or flipping burgers. So you end up with 'problem-children' who trigger increased public safety concerns, more policing actions, and welfare supplements going on for years for an individual without real work talents.
But there is this other odd part to the idea of 260,000 folks coming in each year.....they'd mostly center around the top fifty metropolitan areas of the country (where jobs lie), while rural areas would be depopulated even more. It's a curious scenario, with no real solution.
So the numbers got crunched. Germany would have to go out and actively recruit 260,000 migrant-workers every single year for at least forty years, to meet the decline.
In pure numbers, if Germany does nothing....they'd easily find themselves missing 16-million workers by 2060. It's a situation that industry and finance cannot allow to happen.
Harsh reality? More or less. But here's the thing....when they say 260,000 migrant workers....they aren't talking about family members....they are talking about 260,000 actual workers. So the real math here would mean at least 400,000 a year (wives, husbands, kids) need to be on some entry path.
Added to this, they aren't saying they want 260,000 burger-flippers, or cleaning ladies. The hype here should be individuals with work skills, university time, and craftsmanship talents....that can easily fit into the workplace within a year or two.
A real plan to 'recruit'? No. There is no such plan. That's the humorous part of the German 'open-door' policy.....you could easily end up with fifty-percent of the incoming crowd having no more than basic skills to run a apple-cart, or stocking shelves, or flipping burgers. So you end up with 'problem-children' who trigger increased public safety concerns, more policing actions, and welfare supplements going on for years for an individual without real work talents.
But there is this other odd part to the idea of 260,000 folks coming in each year.....they'd mostly center around the top fifty metropolitan areas of the country (where jobs lie), while rural areas would be depopulated even more. It's a curious scenario, with no real solution.
The Jail Story
If you walked into a group of working-class Germans and asked for a list of their top ten 'concerns'....somewhere in the mix is the deportation of failed visa applicants. It's an odd problem that Germans now discuss, and get frustrated over. Politicians? They worry because they can't really promise what the public wants....immediate deportation.
This got brought up yesterday via a Deutsche Welle article that I noticed.
The German Interior Minister, Horst Seehofer-CSU, has a pet project that he's working on. Basically, once the visa application is stamped 'failed'....he wants to the cops to be there, detain the individual, and move them to a state-fun prison system, until they can be deported.
Issues? Well....the prisons of the sixteen German states really weren't built for this type of situation, or the number of failed applicants that you might be discussing. Adding to this.....you could be talking about a year or two, sitting in the prison, awaiting an appeal process to the deportation. What if the homeland of the guy won't take him back....would you jail him permanently?
If they just went to 'problem-migrants'? Those with criminal behavior noted in the background....like arrests for threats or assaults?
In a way, this entire period of migration and open-door policy, has led to a frustration that labels both the center-right and center-left political parties as 'failures'. They can't resolve this public frustration.
This got brought up yesterday via a Deutsche Welle article that I noticed.
The German Interior Minister, Horst Seehofer-CSU, has a pet project that he's working on. Basically, once the visa application is stamped 'failed'....he wants to the cops to be there, detain the individual, and move them to a state-fun prison system, until they can be deported.
Issues? Well....the prisons of the sixteen German states really weren't built for this type of situation, or the number of failed applicants that you might be discussing. Adding to this.....you could be talking about a year or two, sitting in the prison, awaiting an appeal process to the deportation. What if the homeland of the guy won't take him back....would you jail him permanently?
If they just went to 'problem-migrants'? Those with criminal behavior noted in the background....like arrests for threats or assaults?
In a way, this entire period of migration and open-door policy, has led to a frustration that labels both the center-right and center-left political parties as 'failures'. They can't resolve this public frustration.
Monday, February 11, 2019
Selbstzerfleischen
Selbtzerfleischen is a unique Germany word, and you could be walking around for ten years, and never hear it spoken....in terms of a German describing himself/herself and their personal feelings.
The true definition? Selbtzerfleischen is basically a problem of significance has anchored itself to a German, and they can't really move ahead, or resolve this problem.....so they dwell in pity or discomfort.....day after day....with their mind focused on the issue but it's merely dragging them down. Some Germans will stand and admit this issue, but even if you were a good friend, or neighbor....offering a fine ending to it or some resolution, it may not be what they want to accept. So the problem simply dwells on.
I was reading commentary today over the CDU meeting for a new asylum/immigration policy. The party would like to disengage itself from Merkel and the past five years. But the meeting ended....mostly with no real outcome. So the German guy wrote his frustration down....and noted his selbstzerfleischen issue. It'd be nice if migration and asylum just resolved itself and people could progress on without this thorny issue. But they can't.
Across Germany? Out of 82-million? I'd take a guess that one out of seven German adults have a frustration over the migration and asylum issue, with the political mechanism, more or less....unable to really find any constructive middle-ground to bring the voting public back to the standard two parties (CDU and SPD). The likelihood in 2021 that the combined voting strength will be less than 45-percent of the voting public? It's a fairly high chance now. People are disconnected and feel no real resolution coming.
So if you have a German sitting with you in a pub, and their whine goes on and on....with no resolution making them happy....it's plain old selbstzerfleischen.
The true definition? Selbtzerfleischen is basically a problem of significance has anchored itself to a German, and they can't really move ahead, or resolve this problem.....so they dwell in pity or discomfort.....day after day....with their mind focused on the issue but it's merely dragging them down. Some Germans will stand and admit this issue, but even if you were a good friend, or neighbor....offering a fine ending to it or some resolution, it may not be what they want to accept. So the problem simply dwells on.
I was reading commentary today over the CDU meeting for a new asylum/immigration policy. The party would like to disengage itself from Merkel and the past five years. But the meeting ended....mostly with no real outcome. So the German guy wrote his frustration down....and noted his selbstzerfleischen issue. It'd be nice if migration and asylum just resolved itself and people could progress on without this thorny issue. But they can't.
Across Germany? Out of 82-million? I'd take a guess that one out of seven German adults have a frustration over the migration and asylum issue, with the political mechanism, more or less....unable to really find any constructive middle-ground to bring the voting public back to the standard two parties (CDU and SPD). The likelihood in 2021 that the combined voting strength will be less than 45-percent of the voting public? It's a fairly high chance now. People are disconnected and feel no real resolution coming.
So if you have a German sitting with you in a pub, and their whine goes on and on....with no resolution making them happy....it's plain old selbstzerfleischen.
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