Sunday, March 13, 2022

Landscape in Six Months

 1.  Putin still runs the Russian-Soviet empire.  No one speaks ill of his accomplishments, or they face detention by the police.  On the scale of making Russia into North Korea....ninety-percent of the steps have been accomplished.  

2.  Germany has signed enough contracts with an unknown coal-producing country to entirely cut off coal purchases from Russia (amounting to 45-percent of the national coal needs) by the end of 2022.  Cost factor?  Up by 20-percent.

3.  Nationalization in Russia of various western companies has started up and some seem doomed for failure (particularly electrical car parts).  Precision airplane parts are a major question mark, with the safety factor drawn into the discussion.  Various Chinese companies have been drawn into talks, but they want something other than Rubles in exchange for the parts they produce.

4.  Kiev is about 50-percent 'gone' (leveled to the ground).  

5.  While no accurate count is possible, there's a strong belief that 25,000 Russian troops simply 'disappeared'.  Parents are visited by the police and told of the son's death, but told to privately morn the death.....then are given a medal for his efforts to denazify the threat. 

6.  The Pentagon does some review and just says something in the neighborhood of 500 Russian tanks/APCs were either destroyed or left on the field. 

7.  No one is really counting, but if you did a 'loose' review....somewhere in the range of 1-million Russians have left the country, and don't intend to come back.

8.  Ethnic Russian-Ukrainians....now having their own 'land'....see a lot of damage on their daily walks, and ask when the Russians will be rebuilding their controlled territory.  They get no answers.  The only customers for their products seem to be Russia, and they pay in Rubles......which now have become a economic burden.  The grocery stores in this new 'republic' are marginally filled....rarely having fresh fruit, and the only item didn't escalate in price is vodka.

9.  Germany has eventually figured out that over a thousand homes/apartment buildings in the country....are owned by some Oligarch groups.  Various German courts are trying to establish legal ownership or removing Oligarch groups as owners.

10.  Russians are asking 'when' (if ever) they will be able to go on vacations to Greece, Croatia, Turkey, or Thailand again.  Putin promises within a year....things will be settled on this matter.  Nothing ever comes of this promise.

11.  Russian participation in international sports?  Just about zero.  

12.  Russian tourism operators have come to admit that 99-percent of their normal traffic/profit is gone and most have admitted to either a shutdown or a dramatic reduction in offerings.

13.  Several international hotels in the St Petersburg and Moscow area (the 4-star/5-star places) are cutting staff and looking for buyers.  

14.  Germany has brought in 1-million Ukrainians by late-summer, and near 1.5-million by the end of 2022.

15.  At least a hundred Oligarch individuals will have quietly taken what cash they can assemble (non-Rubles) and left Russia....to hide out in Asia and South America. Some will say it resembles the exit of prominent Nazis after WW II.

16.  'Putin-burgers', 'Putin-chicken', and 'Putin-pizza' will become insider jokes as the western restaurants are taken over.  

17.  More than a hundred FSB (the old KGB) folks will be in court to deny accusations by the Putin government.  More than a thousand FSB individuals will have retired or disappeared (entering western Europe) in fear of what is coming.

18.  Starvation by Russian troops in the Ukraine over the past six months will be brought up, and the claims are that combat rations were sold to the black-market in numerous cases.  Several generals will be brought up on charges by the government.

19.  The US will have established permanent bases in Poland.

20.  At least twenty different Russian books will appear on bookshelves....describing the fake invasion, the fake Nazi stories, and the great tales of Russia saving the Ukrainian people.  All will be four-star elements of propaganda.  

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