The Beginning:
In the Putin mind, there was 'no respect' building up for several years. You can blame this on the EU, the Ukraine, the US, Merkel, the Chinese, whoever.
Russia of 2022, is supposed to be like the Soviet Union of 1984....at least on paper, and in the imagination of Putin himself. On ten different levels (particularly economically)....Russia survives off of natural gas and oil. Without those....there's nothing really to sell the world.
In Putin's mind, there was always supposed to be a buffer between 'the West' and Russia, and countries served some purpose in this functionary 'world'.
The invasion 'idea'? There was rhetoric going on in 2012/2013 with the EU getting too close, and becoming attached to the Ukraine. The NATO membership chatter? That was worrisome as well.
I think the rhetoric got caught up in mid-2021, with the Kremlin-machine seeing Biden, Johnson, Macron, and potentially Scholz of Germany....all being weak. If you were ever going to conduct a Ukraine 'war'....this was the time. A marginalized Putin, with some mental decline....saw no risk.
The generals? They probably all walked in and made the statement that they could take the Ukraine in 48 hours, and by the 72nd hour.....the comedian-President of the Ukraine would surrender. They'd practiced this routine over and over at their exercise area....fighting the 'evil' NATO, and the Russia/Warsaw Pact squad always prevailing.
At no point in the hundred days prior to the campaign, did Putin stop and logically consider all options. Maybe the old Putin of twenty years ago would have done that.....but this modern Putin doesn't have the mental capacity or assessment capability.
The Middle:
There are about a hundred problems now existing with the campaign, and I could probably write a 300-page essay over this.
The Russian economy....with Putin still living in the 1980s mentality....was now firmly attached to western commerce, western banking, western sanctions, and the typical average middle-to-upper-class Russian needed the western 'tools'.
Apple-pay doesn't pay for that 65 Ruble cup of coffee anymore. That vacation to Greece this summer is stalled because flights can't enter Greek airspace. That $300,000 investment account that you held in some Dutch mutual fund is frozen presently.
The Ukrainian comedian-president? If you polled Ukrainians.....he's probably got a 98-percent approval rating.
All those stupid anti-tank weapons? Well....yeah, they amount to some Einstein formula....where a hundred Russian tanks probably don't have the value you felt a month ago. The fact that everyone is giving you these weapons, and even a 12-year-old kid could handle the operation of a Javelin-system?
These videos of captured Russian conscripts telling their woeful stories, and they seem untrained or unready for military action? That hurts Russia in the end. Having a Russian tank or APC just sitting there....run out of fuel and the crew escaping back to the Russian lines? Russian tanks mired in mud at least a meter stuck, and the tank commander not experienced enough to stay on solid ground for a movement?
Twitter and Facebook doing a fair amount of coverage, without CNN, BBC, or NY Times being the normal chief tool?
Elon Musk moving a satellite or two over....to provide internet access....in a matter of hours....not months, for the Ukraine?
Finland waking up and saying NATO membership might not be a stupid thing?
Nord Stream II dissolved to the point that it will be declared bankrupt by Friday (Swiss court to receive the paperwork apparently). Who will buy the pipeline....is unknown, but I doubt if they pay more than 300-million Euro, and will just wait for Putin to retire.
The End:
Putin, for his own mental state.....needs something that can be called a victory. His script reads (1) Crimea is all Russian property, (2) Ukraine is neutral (no EU or NATO status), and (3) Ukraine is demilitarized/rid of Nazis.
If you asked me how long Russia can survive with the growing list of sanctions....I'd say around sixty days before public pressure on the United Russia political party reaches a point where they write the script instead of Putin. So figure around early May when this view occurs.
The anti-tank warfare in the Ukraine? The Ukrainians will have more than enough shoulder-carried weapons to take out a minimum of 300 Russian tanks/APCs, and by late March....the landscape will be littered with non-operational Russian equipment.
The respect of the generals? By April, it'll be a routine joke told in Moscow....how a quarter of Russian tanks were removed from the military for a 'little' exercise in the Ukraine. Disrespect among the conscripts? That will start to add up as well.
War crimes being openly discussed, and military figures having folders created? By May, I might go and suggest more than a hundred Russian military officers facing some criminal situation. It wouldn't shock me if a dozen of them quietly walk out the backdoor to some Thai retirement situation, or some Turkish costal property.
Inflation in Russia? Before the invasion even started....inflation was figured around 8-percent. For the remainder of 2022, under Putin's 'dream'....one might suggest an inflation rate of 25-percent by the end of 2022.
I expect by May, that some Russian proclamation will be made that Russia won, and the Crimea area is annexed (requiring a massive permanent placement of troops), and the Ukraine saying 'No, sorry, but we don't agree'. The hope of getting funds in the West unfrozen? No....some individuals will say the frozen Russian capital will be shifted to the Ukraine to rebuild the country. Russians will awaken at this point....realizing all this capital (personal funds) are lost permanently because of the reckless behavior of Putin.
Among the United Front party people....the Putin-thrill be mostly gone by mid-summer, and their military reputation will be ranked at the same level as Peru or Egypt.
Germans and various Europeans 'joining' the Ukraine front? It wouldn't surprise me if a thousand folks showed up by late March...to fight in the war.
2022 will be a dark chapter on Russian history, and will remind people of how the old Soviet Union dissolved.
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