Friday, March 11, 2022

The War: 11 March 2022: AM

 1.  Chancellor Scholz had a hour-long chat with Putin yesterday.  Scholz chatted over the continued bombardment of Ukrainian cities.....Putin countered that the Russians had not bombed any cities in the Ukraine.

2.  There's been continual chatter of the Wagner mercenaries being brought into the conflict....both within Ukraine and in Europe itself.  

I've reached a point where I think most of this is BS.  Mercenaries tend to operate on the concept of work equaling a hefty pay scale, and a fair chance of survival to enjoy the pay.  If you invent a new mission where your life expectancy is not that great....the pay scale starts to become a bigger deal, and if you can't pay in anything but worthless Rubles, then the mercenary effort diminishes to a great degree.

I would imagine some of the Wagner group will take on jobs, but it wouldn't surprise if half of their membership has drifted to some private cabin with their family and intend to sit out this episode.  

3.  Focus wrote up a piece on where they think the next extension of the war will be.....centered on the Balkans region.  

I would have mixed feelings....there's nothing there of a serious plus-up for the Russians....other than creating conflict.  Proxy wars just to serve a Putin agenda?  More or less.

4.  China did come out in the AM today....talking over criticism of the sanctions against Russia, but skipping mention of the war.  There will be two paths here....the government obviously is supportive of Putin.  But if you went to China commerce and asked how willing are they to accept Rubles for payment....that's a big zero.  There's likely to be a slowdown in production/delivery of Chinese goods into Russia.

5.  There are several examples from Wednesday/Thursday....where Russian advances were halted, and retreats had to occur.  A  lot of this is centered on tanks which came under serious attack.  The Javelin anti-tank weapons are very effective.

6.  Use of chemical/biological weapons next?  Lot of chatter....no evidence.  

7.  Facebook has a unique policy now.  In some countries, you can advocate for violence against Russia (Putin), and in other countries, you would be suspended or banned for advocating for violence.  Kinda funny if you think about it.  

8.  Polling in Germany favors a energy ban on Russian products (oil, coal, natural gas)....just over half support it.....less than a third are against it.  

9.  Fuel locally (Wiesbaden): E-10 unleaded is 2.14 Euro per liter this morning (6 AM).  Diesel is selling for 2.30 Euro per liter (meaning 9.53 US dollars per gallon).  

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