Saturday, March 12, 2022

The War: 12 Mar 2022 (mid-morning)

 1.  The Ukrainian military 'says' that they've killed/captured around 12,000 Russians. BS-factor?  I'd give it a '7'.

They also state around 360 tanks destroyed or left by the side of the road (gas issues/maintenance).

So you really don't know.  If it was 12,000....it'd be a big deal.  If it was 360-odd tanks taken out of action....that would be a big deal.

In fact, I could see a weird scenario where the Ukrainians have recovered a dozen tanks lacking fuel....got to running and at some point.....mingle the tanks among the Russian invaders and take out two or three dozen tanks before they figure out there's some serious problem existing. 

2.  Around three days ago, Vladimir Potanin (the nickel billionaire) sat and gave a interview.

In simple terms....Potanin says the whole economy has been set back to 1917, and this is a major disaster.  In this statement....he was addressing the idea of nationalizing western companies in Russia, and how the consequences are significant.  

I think if you engaged Potanin on the topic of what's happen over the past three decades....he would admit that it's taken a lot of effort to build a business up and to ensure mistrust is limited.  

3.  Germany is preparing a bus convoy effort to take around 2,500 Ukrainians from Moldovia to Germany.  Some direct route via Romania being established.  Basically, one is talking about 61 German buses making the trip there (1,800 km and 30 hours of driving/breaks) to reach Berlin.  It would be a massive effort.

4.  N-TV says (BS-factor: '5'...might be elements of this true) that Russian combat rations were sold prior to the invasion.  So food-wise....there's just not much food existing for the original force that went into the Ukraine.  Accepting this story?  Well....no one says whether it was the solders themselves or the commanders, who sold the combat rations.

It may be.....toward the end of the exercise...commanders thought they had a lot of excess rations left and went to black-market folks to sell a hundred pallets here and there, and woke up a week later to realize the exercise would end, and they'd immediately go off to war-mode.

If this were true....I'd say by this point...a lot of soldiers are hungry and demoralized.  But I seriously doubt the story is that true.  If you were a commander and had a hundred pallets of rations....I can't see the value being that great.  

The sad thing....the same black market would now react, and offer to sell the pallets back....for double or triple what they paid originally.  

5.  My German wife brought this up yesterday....prices on noodles, with Germany grocery shops.  There's a particular brand which she is fond of, and up until November of 2021.....the price per package (when on sale) was around 89 Euro cents.  It edged up around Christmas to 1.09 Euro per package (when on sale).

Yesterday, via the weekly sales brochure...the same package came up on sale once again....at 1.89 Euro. A full Euro escalation over six months?  Yes. With a lot of Ukrainian wheat in the mix for German products....I would go and take a guess that the same noodle package will be around 2.49 Euro by the end of 2022.  

No comments: