You won't hear this on any news network....at least till Monday, and some will wonder what it means....but, China's main bank in Singapore....controls a heck of a lot of exchange/cash flow on Russian oil sales.
So yesterday, they said they were 'finished'. They don't want to deal in Rubles. Russian oil trades? Pretty much dissolved unless the Russians go and find alternate banking.
What'll happen over the next week? Well....a number of Russians who handle the oil trades...will quiet down, and say little in public.
The Chinese government? They can hype up all of their pro-Russia feelings, but their state-operated bank exists off a stable environment. The Ruble isn't stable, and they don't to be left holding a worthless currency.
I will predict that the Russians will find some bank (maybe in Myanmar, or Cambodia, or Laos) with some bribes along the way to run some transactions (maybe for a month)....before they realize it's a lose-lose situation on handling Rubles.
The Oligarch oil/natural gas crowd? I would suggest that they are meeting this weekend, and trying to assess how sales will occur. You got the US dumping Russian oil, and the Chinese bank folks laughing over the Ruble value.
Way out of this mess? None.
If I were a Oligarch guy.....I'd try to settle up for whatever cash I could find (non-Rubles) and maybe find some hiding point in Africa or Malaysia. The next couple of months in Russia are going to be pretty miserable.
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