1. There's an interesting interview in Focus this AM....talk with a ex-Russian oligarch guy (Mikhail Khodorkovsky), who was grabbed by Putin a number of years ago, and sent off to 10 years of prison.
So Khodorkovsky says....Covid took a toil on Putin, and he got into a bunker-mentality.....he's only getting information from a small group of people, and it's leading him to make irrational decisions.
What Putin intends now? Total destruction of the Ukraine....leave nothing much standing.
Khodorkovsky remarks.....it's Putin's war, and if it fails....the fault goes directly back to him. Interesting interview, worth a review.
2. Chancellor Scholz to be in Turkey for a meeting with Erdogan today.
3. Some letter went out to various western companies in Russia.....either you operate, or we confiscate your business (meaning McDonalds, VW, etc). This might be interesting to watch unfold.
4. Oddly, there's the largest NATO exercise of the year to start this week, and run until 1 April.....centered on Norway. Supposedly 30,000 troops are involved in this operation.
5. Focus reported this story....originating out of the Financial Times, so it's probably legit (my BS-meter is a '4'). The story goes....Russia has contacted China and asked for military hardware, because of a shortage. Source of info? Well....someone connected to the US government.
I sat and looked over the 12-line story. First, the equipment requested is never laid out in detail. The Russia contact and the Chinse contact are never explained.
Are the Russians running out of hardware? There are three areas that I would suspect: rocket, fuel-tanker trucks, and mortars/ammo. They've simply run this war requirement way past the 72-hour point, and I think ammo and rockets are probably down to some 'end-point'. On the tanker trucks.....based on video I've watched on YouTube....I've seen at least 150 tankers destroyed over the course of the war so far. It wouldn't shock me if it were closer to 300 of the tankers 'gone'.
So, was this Putin talking to Xi? I doubt it.....I don't think Putin knows the full picture of how bad this is. It's probably a four-star general talking to another four-star general, and wanting a 'deal' to occur.
Cost factor? Well....the Chinese don't want Rubles. So it has to be something like natural gas or oil being swapped.
Then you come to the question of it would get 'there'. Ship? Takes too long. Cargo jet? Draws too much attention. It'd have to go by rail across Siberia.figure six days minimum.
Have the Chinese reacted yet? No indications.
The thing that gets me....most everything the Russians had before....came out of the Minsk plants, with x-quality. If you were accepting Chinese equipment....would it meet Minsk standards? I'm not that sure about that. I could see a case where you got x-amount of rockets, and half of them fail upon launch.
What triggered the shortage? Well....the Oligarch guys and the generals all 'shorted' the purchase of military gear. They were never prepared for some war like this.
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