Tuesday, March 8, 2022

The War: 8 March 2022 (AM)

 1.  Dollar to Ruble rate: 1 Dollar equals 130 Rubles (a year ago, it would have been on only 75 Rubles).

2.  Ukrainian Minister of Infrastructure says the current damage to the transportation system is assessed at 10-billion dollars (doesn't count schools, housing, cars lost, etc).

3.  Story out there (from Ukraine) that around 3,000 Americans have signed up in some way to participate in the war.  BS-factor?  I'd put a '7' on this.  There might be a couple of dozen former Army/Marines who want some adventure like this.  Beyond that, I won't comment.

4.  Russian National Guard Lt Col captured, and interviewed on TV by the Ukrainians (yeah, against the Geneva Convention).  He says (you really have to question this)....he and all of his men were told that Ukraine had been taken over by Nazis, and their job was to 'liberate' the country from the evil Nazis.  

BS-Factor?  I'd give it a '5'.  The problem is....you'd have to live in a very tight vacuum where the government could tell you anything....with you believing in every single 'fact'.  

The question to be asked.....just how many Russians live in the mindset that WW II ended yesterday, and evil Nazis lurk on every street corner of the Ukraine, or for that matter....Germany?

5.  Putin quote from yesterday: "Conscripted soldiers are not taking part in the fighting and will not do so. There will also be no additional call-up of reservists."

BS-factor: 10-plus.   Various captured Russians (against the Geneva Convention) have been interviewed, admitting they are conscripts and some barely out of boot-camp for a month before this war started.  That Lt Col I mentioned in #4?  He was a reservist/National Guard type.  

Either Putin told BS by his Kremlin-handlers.....or he has a five-star propaganda staff.

6.  Lot of speculation going on in Germany about cyber attacks to start up here.  This has been hyped up in the last two or three days.

7.  Last night, Vice-PM of Russia made a blunt threat that natural gas to Europe (particularly Germany) could be cut off on Nord Stream I (which has been around for 50-odd years and fully functioning at present.  

Just BS-chatter?  Well....I could see some game where they say maintenance problems exist and take it down for 72 hours just to impress the Germans.  But that's 72 hours of zero cash coming in, and I would suggest they are fearful of that type of strategy.

8.  Two Russian planes shot down yesterday (Monday).

9.  Three rounds of peace talks between Russia/Ukraine have concluded....nothing achieved.

10.  I noticed off N-TV business news early this AM.... PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and KPMG, EY and Deloitte (the audit guys)....have said 'enough' in Belarus/Russia and packed up to leave.  Generally, if you were to be in the middle of international deals/speculation on business situations....one of them would be hired to prove things.  Without them.....your business value is pretty much zero.

11.  There was an interview with former US general Ben Hodges.  His blunt assessment is that NATO is trying to do everything possible just short of war, but the longer this continues....NATO gets dragged closer, and nuclear war isn't that easy to avoid.

12.  I probably viewed 60 minutes of video from Ukraine over damaged Russian vehicles yesterday.  A lot of this is from action over Sat/Sun.  I'd say from tanks/APCs....the majority is older equipment (equipment that reservists/National Guardsmen would operate).  Occasionally, I'd see some newer equipment (funny how a bunch of new jeeps are laying there heavily damaged (like they ran into a ambush).  

13.  Some odd chatter (could be propaganda by the Ukrainians) started up over 'starving' Russian conscripts that they took prisoner, and that they didn't have adequate rations/food for the invasion.  

Generally, you'd get issued the IRP package (Russian MRE) and it'd be up in the 4,500 calorie area for each package.  Lot of mixed reviews....most condemning taste.  But I think you could survive well enough, if you were issued a week's supply.  It may be that in the pre-invasion stance....they'd been on the IRP 'diet' for a while and just fed up with the rations.  

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