1. Is this scenario of Estonia and the other two Baltic countries being 'next on the Russian invasion list realistic?
Today? I'd say no. They've basically been clobbered so far in 13 days....the conscripts have proven to be dismal....machine failure has been noticed a good bit, and there's a lot of pain on the plate of regular Russians. I'd give this 2nd invasion scenario a '2' (out of ten). Add to it....you have seasoned/trained US Army folks....who will have the 'toys' to marginalize tanks/fighters/helicopters.
2. Membership now being considered for the EU....by the Ukraine?
Yes. Along with Georgia and Moldovia. I don't see Georgia getting approved (you'd have to consider Turkey). Russians liking this? No.
3. 'Unfriendly' courtiers to Russia having to pay in Rubles?
That mandate came down today. You'd have to open a Russian bank account and figure some way to move your cash there to buy the Rubles. I just don't see them having much you'd want to buy except oil/natural gas.
4. Four conditions listed by Russia to end the war?
Well....(1) some type of war-halt agreement (no attacks), (2) writing something into the constitution to prevent NATO membership, (3) recognizing Crimea as Russian property, and (4) agreement that Donetsk and Luhansk (far SE districts) turn into something called People's Republics.
Potential here? Virtually no chance they'd be stupid enough to write a NATO-membership line. They might agree to Donetsk/Luhansk (it was high population of Russians there anyway). But I suspect that the Ukraine wants a line to include war crimes charges for several hundred Russians, and some reparations (probably up over 100 billion dollars).
Don't get excited.....these won't occur.
2 comments:
Mr. Putin has requested help from the Syrian army to crush the Ukrainian people as well as hiring 1000. Russian Mercenaries. This is going to get even worse. I never trusted the Russians even when I would see them smiling in front of their business in Nurnberg.
Lot of propaganda/BS, and this is one of those stories that I put a question-mark behind. Lot of the Syrian guys (who've survived the ISIS civil war)...count their blessings and you'd have to put a fair amount of cash on the table to interest them in some adventure like this.
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