Thursday, March 5, 2020

The Fine-Print of the Thuringia 'Solution'

Once the state assembly in Thurigina concluded the in-house voting for the head of government....the big news is that Bodo Ramelow will have a coalition deal which survives until 25 April 2021.

Then this odd event occurs....there will be another state election (yep, a repeat deal of the October 2019 election).

Why is this significant?

There are three state elections in March of 2021 (Baden-Wurttemberg, the Pfalz, and Saxony-Anhalt).  The hope here?  Maybe there is some momentum that will swing the positive way for the Linke Party. 

In the Pfalz?  No.  They might be lucky to get around 8-percent of the state's vote.

In Saxony-Anhalt?  They might improve upon the 2016 vote (16.3 percent) and rise up to around 23 percent.  But the same upward swing will occur with the AfD Party.  You might go and expect them to get near 26-to-28 percent of the vote. 

Finally, in Baden-Wurttemberg?  In the 2016 election, the Linke Party marginally got 2.9-percent of the vote.  Maybe if luck follows them.....they might double their votes this time around and get near 5-percent. 

So I don't see this as a positive trend in Thuringia.  You end up with a weak and marginally effective government for the coming months....with the opposition parties now having a majority.  Unless the CDU or FDP stands down each time legislation needs to be passed.....nothing much is going to occur.

Then you go through the summer period....up to two additional state elections in the early fall, and then the national election in October.  It just begs for chaos throughout all of 2021. 

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