Saturday, March 21, 2020

Germany and the Coronavirus: 21 March 2020

1.  Infected:   19,741 (Focus numbers).   Dead: 56 (Focus numbers).

2.  ARD reports that it's around 96,000 Germans outside of the country who desire to return, with flights 'unsure' at this point.  I should note that around 300k to 400k Germans reside outside of the nation and the bulk aren't that excited to return (for whatever reason).

3.  Verdi union guys calling for all barber-shops in Germany to be shut-down.

4.  German trains to Switzerland...ONLY go now to Basel (that's it). You get off there and deal with border-crossing problems.  Don't go expecting them to greet you or allow you into Switzerland.

5.  Some serious curfew chatter going on in the state of the Pfalz.  Nothing for sure yet.  One extreme view is that you couldn't be out in your car going somewhere, like a bar or club.  If working, you'd require a note from your boss to indicate the job and hours.

6.  Only two Germans dead so far from the Pfalz....both in their 80s.

7.  New shortage?  Strangely enough, here we are at the end of winter, with most people having used a lesser amount of heat than in normal years.  What's reported is that oil salespeople are getting calls everyday.....to refill and restock.  Pricing on oil?  It's down a good bit from a year ago.

8.  Last night via ARD/ZDF (the two public TV networks)?  Two 'extra' segments to hype and discuss the virus.  I would suggest three themes:

- Curfew-Curfew-Curfew: Almost all of the Premier-Presidents (state governors) appeared in anger over young people showing up in parks, sipping beer and chilling out.....instead of staying in their homes.

- Scientists talking over the statistics and developments.

- Some virus-victims talking over the nature of their hospital stay.

Lot of effort to reassure folks, but serious frustration that socializing is going on.

9.  Focus reporting that nine retirees died in one single nursing home in Wurzburg (Bavaria).  Hint that all occupants in the home have the virus. 

10.  Hessen discussion over violations of curfew?  Well, nothing concrete but the chatter is that a single violation could amount to 100 Euro to 300 Euro (depending on how severe your action was).

11.  More than 600 deaths were reported in a 24-hour period in Italy.  Peak has yet to be reached.

Final observation: I would suggest that a 'peak-period' for Germany is still a minimum of three weeks away.  This socializing business is hurting the peak expectation and making this worse in the end.  But you can ask yourself.....how long can you play 'inside-the-cabin' before getting nuts?  Spring is right around the corner and it'll make this worse. 

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