Just projecting what I see as the likely 'end'.
On the evening of 20 Jan 2025, President Trump (assuming he is elected) will send a blunt letter to various trading partners of Russia (in particular China)....that with the exception of food and medical items....all other trade ends with Russia, until the war is finished.
Meaning? The US, Japan, South Korea, and the EU....will sanction the 'hell' out of China if they deal in any weapon sales. China will think he's joking....ten days later, they discover that it's not a joke. Anyone else (like Iran or India) thinking they can still trade with Russia? Give them the same treatment.
A crisis meeting mid-February will occur....Russians, Ukrainians and a neutral party or two (Orban of Hungary will be in the group), along with one US member.
The deal will be a 72-hour truce to set things up.....then an understanding that Crimea will remain in Russian possession, and that all of eastern Ukraine held by Russia....will revert back to Ukraine.
Trump will say if you revert the territory immediately back to the Ukraine....sanctions end on the day the last Russian army unit leaves the region.
Then Trump adds...the US will still participate in NATO, but if Russia pulls out and reverts property back to the Ukraine....the Americans will vacate European posts/bases within 18 months. What'll be left is a planning staff of 1,000 Army/Air Force members, and a Navy base in Italy. They will still participate in exercises, but not station troops.
The serious hint then? Sanction double-down if you don't agree.
Crappy deal? Well....Ukraine gets territory back...some basic pledge out of the EU and the US for development/rebuilding. Russia gets the sanctions undone, with natural gas likely flowing into Germany within 12 months. The EU gets out of the war business (both the 'cold-war' and the war-like atmosphere of the past 30 years).
By early March 2025....the deal is signed. By summer of 2026, the US has started removing troops and dismantling bases.
The Nobel Peace Prize folks? Well....lot of people standing there and unable to allow Russians or the Trump-team to be noted for stopping the senseless war.
The eastern quarter of Ukraine being a no-man's land for the next forty years? Yeah....you shouldn't expect much.
Ukrainians returning home? I have my doubts. Russian young men returning home? I doubt that as well.
Everyone will sit there and discuss the losses of life and how Putin couldn't be brought to the table....militarily. I would argue....with a smaller force....Ukraine did the impossible and dissolved the second largest force on Earth into nothing....without the advantage of tanks or fighters.
Sanctions? You have to make people truly suffer, and it doesn't happen overnight. In this case, it has to be not only Russia, but China as well.
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