As peace has arrived by this point (spring 2025)....I see five things at work.
First, Russia will never achieve the financial success they had up until the year prior to the war....unless the nation is broken up. The odds of this? 50-50.
Just telling Russians of a high tax situation...to rebuild the military from scratch? Then you turn and tell the Oligarch folks they are finished for maximum wealth gimmicks? I just don't see people willing to accept that. You will end up in a revolutionary civil conflict with both private citizens and Oligarch-militias doing battle.
Second, the brain-drain lost between 2022 and 2025? If you found some country like France or Germany to accept you....why would you go back 'home'?
If you were a wealthy Russian developer with money....where will you find the brain-staff to deliver your ideas? I don't see this working out unless you recruit a bunch of out-of-work Chinese guys and offer them jobs in Russia.
Third, the national economy of Russia is highly dependent on oil and natural gas. They have to return....in full form....to give the nation a chance of recovery. The pipeline repair? It has to occur.
The deals that Germany made to get shipped-in natural gas, and the massive spending on the port-terminal for the LNG situation? Well....Germany has to accept the fact that they spent money for nothing.
Fourth, going from a first-tier country to a third-tier country? They will have no choice....I don't see them ever being in the top twenty economic countries of the world.
Fifth, whoever replaces Putin....needs to be a 'economics-boss' rather than another KGB-boss. It is the only way that they will advance on some type of legit recovery.
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