Over the last week....it's been discussed lightly in the German news media that Germany wants to have a major NATO headquarters in Germany.
Why?
This gets to be kinda amusing. First, there is the NATO headquarters that exists already in Brussels, Belgium. It's been there for almost fifty years. They aren't really saying they want to replace that structure.
What the Germans hint at....is that they want a logistics hub headquarters....where logistical decisions are made for all of NATO. Course, you'd ask the question....aren't these decisions already made in the Brussels HQ's? Well....yes and no.
Typically, at the NATO headquarters in Brussels.....they make decisions about troops, tanks, or aircraft moving to some exercise area, or some operational area, and then the logistics part of this is accomplished within that country's own resources.
To be honest....with the exception of the US, the UK, France, and Germany....the logistics might of the remaining members of NATO isn't much to discuss.
Where would this German NATO logistical hub headquarters be located? Already decided by the Germans....Bonn. They have a German base there and ample room to build upon it.
Do the other members support this? Total unknown. No one has talked much about this, and I doubt that the Brits, French or Americans really feel hyped up about this idea.
Are the Germans really good at logistical decisions? No. This is not the 1940 German Army period, and most of the time that logistics come up in German Army news today....it's a really sad and dismal story.
Why hype this idea? They'd like to reach 2-percent of spending levels, but they want the money to stay within Germany. So for some brief period....maybe two years....they'd build the building, and housing area, and the money would stay local. After the two years of building? Well, one might suspect that they'd slide back down to 1.2-percent of GDP.
Do we really need this structure? The Cold War ended in the early 1990s. It's hard to stand up and say that Russia is some big threat. Is it worth spending a billion Euro on some Bonn base structure? One might have doubts.
Would the US support this? They will tell you that they don't really need another 'filter' and it's doubtful that making a fake-headquarters like this would really make any difference....if you don't really pick up the slack of logistical requirements. My gut feeling is that Trump and team won't support this. The French? Unlikely as well. The Brits? Only if it helps them get good results for BREXIT.
So, that's the big picture of this discussion. It probably won't go too far.
Thursday, February 15, 2018
The Hessen Free Transportation Talk
It's odd how this 'free transportation' deal came up and became the number one topic for the past 72 hours.
This morning, my local network....HR (the Hessen public network) covered the topic.
HR went and interviewed the state Transport Minister....Tarek Al-Wazir...a Green Party guy. He more or less said that it's a fantasy.
His quote: "Easy to call 'in vain for everyone' does not seem particularly elaborate."
He points out....without ticket revenue, there's a heck of a lot (billions) that simply aren't there.
He even goes on to talk about the act of doubling passengers (basically what this whole process would be about)....you'd have to double the train and bus network. Most folks around Frankfurt would readily agree with him....the whole network operating now is at maximum capacity. 747 million folks rode the regional network in 2017. To suggest them taking up to around 1.5 billion? Don't even bother.
How much does the regional network make per year? 900 million Euro.
They even went onto to analyze how the network is used now and the biggest problem existing. If you have someone at some rural point of the Frankfurt 'shadow', needing to make it into a particular part of Darmstadt....you could be talking about four changes in a one-hour period to make it into work or university. At present, it's unrealistic to make the route work, and using a car is simply smarter.
It's amazing how this topic moved up and is long discussed by the public. I would suggest that the Merkel coalition has opened up a can of worms. Even the Greens kinda admit that this is way outside of reality to offer free transportation.
So you stand back and think about things that came up two years ago. Germany hustled up and passed a law that said that gas and diesel cars (new vehicles) would NOT be allowed to be sold after 2030. It had to be electric in nature. Most Germans (I'd say three-quarters) believed this was achievable and within reason. This would give everyone the ability to ride on their own, and still have a private vehicle to get to work. So you have to ask yourself....WHY go and dump this free-transportation deal on the table? I doubt if you can find more than ten-percent of society who think that it's possible to do this.
Behind all of this....I think the EU is getting close to pushing Germany into some fine deal....via the court system, over the clean air standards. When you go back twenty years ago....Germany was all hyped up to talk about enforcing clean air upon all of Europe and forced standards. So they got the standards, and now it's obvious that German cities (like Frankfurt, Munich, Essen, etc)....can't meet the EU standards.
It's a curious topic and will be around for weeks, I think.
This morning, my local network....HR (the Hessen public network) covered the topic.
HR went and interviewed the state Transport Minister....Tarek Al-Wazir...a Green Party guy. He more or less said that it's a fantasy.
His quote: "Easy to call 'in vain for everyone' does not seem particularly elaborate."
He points out....without ticket revenue, there's a heck of a lot (billions) that simply aren't there.
He even goes on to talk about the act of doubling passengers (basically what this whole process would be about)....you'd have to double the train and bus network. Most folks around Frankfurt would readily agree with him....the whole network operating now is at maximum capacity. 747 million folks rode the regional network in 2017. To suggest them taking up to around 1.5 billion? Don't even bother.
How much does the regional network make per year? 900 million Euro.
They even went onto to analyze how the network is used now and the biggest problem existing. If you have someone at some rural point of the Frankfurt 'shadow', needing to make it into a particular part of Darmstadt....you could be talking about four changes in a one-hour period to make it into work or university. At present, it's unrealistic to make the route work, and using a car is simply smarter.
It's amazing how this topic moved up and is long discussed by the public. I would suggest that the Merkel coalition has opened up a can of worms. Even the Greens kinda admit that this is way outside of reality to offer free transportation.
So you stand back and think about things that came up two years ago. Germany hustled up and passed a law that said that gas and diesel cars (new vehicles) would NOT be allowed to be sold after 2030. It had to be electric in nature. Most Germans (I'd say three-quarters) believed this was achievable and within reason. This would give everyone the ability to ride on their own, and still have a private vehicle to get to work. So you have to ask yourself....WHY go and dump this free-transportation deal on the table? I doubt if you can find more than ten-percent of society who think that it's possible to do this.
Behind all of this....I think the EU is getting close to pushing Germany into some fine deal....via the court system, over the clean air standards. When you go back twenty years ago....Germany was all hyped up to talk about enforcing clean air upon all of Europe and forced standards. So they got the standards, and now it's obvious that German cities (like Frankfurt, Munich, Essen, etc)....can't meet the EU standards.
It's a curious topic and will be around for weeks, I think.
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
More on the 'Free Ride' Commentary
I noted out of Hamburg news this morning, a fair amount of skeptical nature over this free bus/tram ticket idea by the Berlin leadership.
NDR put a fair bit of commentary over the idea.
In the region of Hamburg, there's roughly 850 million Euro of local tram/bus tickets sold yearly....so as they point out....someone would have to cough up that money to make this all 'free'. Hint: tax-payers.
The city spokesperson even went onto discuss the internal capability of the network....trams, buses, etc....it's all built to handle X-number of passengers. The local Hamburg network is figured to transport around 770.5 million passengers every year.
I've been to Hamburg and will vouch that they have a four-star public transportation system within the city. But to suggest it could double up? Not without massive infrastructure costs.
You would likely be talking about billions to be spent over a decade to reach some stage where everything works as advertised.
Skeptical nature now attacking this Berlin idea? I would speculate that the Berlin political folks are simply trying to buy time and avoid an EU confrontation. In a way, by the EU's nature....it could make a lot of people angry over the attitude taken.
NDR put a fair bit of commentary over the idea.
In the region of Hamburg, there's roughly 850 million Euro of local tram/bus tickets sold yearly....so as they point out....someone would have to cough up that money to make this all 'free'. Hint: tax-payers.
The city spokesperson even went onto discuss the internal capability of the network....trams, buses, etc....it's all built to handle X-number of passengers. The local Hamburg network is figured to transport around 770.5 million passengers every year.
I've been to Hamburg and will vouch that they have a four-star public transportation system within the city. But to suggest it could double up? Not without massive infrastructure costs.
You would likely be talking about billions to be spent over a decade to reach some stage where everything works as advertised.
Skeptical nature now attacking this Berlin idea? I would speculate that the Berlin political folks are simply trying to buy time and avoid an EU confrontation. In a way, by the EU's nature....it could make a lot of people angry over the attitude taken.
SPD Party in Tail-Spin?
If you follow headlines in Germany, especially over the past seven days....it's safe to say that all news organizations are portraying the SPD Party (left of center) to be in total chaos.
What really happened here?
I would go to three basic elements.
1. When the SPD Party came up in late 2016 and announced the arrival of Martin Schulz to be their new front-guy and lead the party onto the September 2017 election....they felt some great but fake enthusiasm. Schulz was hyped up over pro-migration and the EU. Beyond that, he just didn't connect to the bulk of SPD voters. In a way, they were expecting something different.
2. The youth of the SPD Party movement just aren't reading off the same script as the SPD leadership. This probably has been going on for a decade or more, but in the past six months....it's reached a stage where there's a total disconnect.
3. Finally, you come to the news media itself, and the handling or criticism being muffled or limited over the past couple of years. If the political folks were being stupid.....it was lightly observed and rarely critical in commentary. It's hard to find anyone over the past year who jumped on Schulz from ARD or ZDF.
What'll happen now? My guess is that the coalition vote on 4 March will fail, and that the party will go through a long process of rebuilding. I also think the youth of the SPD will step away and find other political parties to attach themselves upon. Both the Bavarian and Hessen state elections will spell out the pain the party and show lesser numbers than expected.
What really happened here?
I would go to three basic elements.
1. When the SPD Party came up in late 2016 and announced the arrival of Martin Schulz to be their new front-guy and lead the party onto the September 2017 election....they felt some great but fake enthusiasm. Schulz was hyped up over pro-migration and the EU. Beyond that, he just didn't connect to the bulk of SPD voters. In a way, they were expecting something different.
2. The youth of the SPD Party movement just aren't reading off the same script as the SPD leadership. This probably has been going on for a decade or more, but in the past six months....it's reached a stage where there's a total disconnect.
3. Finally, you come to the news media itself, and the handling or criticism being muffled or limited over the past couple of years. If the political folks were being stupid.....it was lightly observed and rarely critical in commentary. It's hard to find anyone over the past year who jumped on Schulz from ARD or ZDF.
What'll happen now? My guess is that the coalition vote on 4 March will fail, and that the party will go through a long process of rebuilding. I also think the youth of the SPD will step away and find other political parties to attach themselves upon. Both the Bavarian and Hessen state elections will spell out the pain the party and show lesser numbers than expected.
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
More on the Free Ticket Deal
ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One) came up with a fair amount of information over this free transportation deal and how it's being stacked up.
The crisis driving this, is the threat by major cities in Germany to halt or forbid entry of diesel cars. In some ways, it's a major crisis and threatens several million cars....probably bringing a massive amount of anger and frustration to the general public. So to counter the diesel car crisis....the Merkel-led government is now discussing the idea of free public transportation. You would drive up to the city limits, park, and the bus/tram network would carry you freely to work. If you lived in the city itself, it'd all be free transportation.
So the first step that the government did...in a way of stalling this whole discussion....was to send up a letter to the EU to request 'permission' to provide such a service. This whole thing is designed as a test, and would be limited in the initial stage to five German cities:
1. Mannheim, population: 300,000. They actually have a fairly decent light-rail system, and the city lies along major autobahns.
2. Bonn, population 315,000.
3. Essen, population: 575,000.
4. Herrenberg, population: 31,000. Small town about 30 minutes outside of Stuttgart. No tram or light-rail.
5. Reutlingen: Population: 113,000. Significant city to the south of Germany.
If you look over the five, three have significant public traffic daily, and you would be bumping up the regional capability to handle probably twice the number of daily passengers.
Why the letter? Well....the EU is in a position of a threat to Germany. There's been a clean air issue brewing for more than a decade, and Germany has politically avoided the public discussion. This is one of the amazing stories that public news has avoided for the most part. So now, the German government wants the EU to back off on the threat of a court-episode, and just accept free transportation as the solution.
If the EU says no, and continues on? Well....it'd be in a EU court and Germany likely loses. Then there would be daily fines. No one says much over how much, but I'd take a guess that a million Euro a day would be the minimum (per day).
What happens now? The EU has to view this in terms of opening up a can of worms across all of the EU. If Germany offers free transportation, the EU court system might view this as the big solution and push everyone toward this.
Meanwhile, it buys time.
Let's be honest....once you start the test....there will have to be a team in each city which evaluates what to add, request the additional funding, buy, build, and evaluate success.
How long will the 'test' run? I would take a guess that you could be looking at five to eight years.
First, you'd have to go and determine where to building parking lots for cars on the outer boundary of cities. Then you'd have to have light-rail or bus networks that would transport you into the city itself. Additional capacity? In the case of Mannheim, you'd have to probably double the number of trams running around the city.
Second, the infrastructure money. Well....just for the test, I would take a wild guess that we are talking about a minimum of five billion Euro. I'm also guessing that Merkel hasn't been told the real cost and the whole crew will be shocked at the substantial amount that it would take to make a successful test.
Third, just how far will you take this? It's not just for free tickets for Germans, but for anyone visiting the country, or staying briefly. Will it include railway tickets from one major city to another? I kinda doubt that. There has to be a limit to the interior of cities.
Fourth, and the more curious aspect....a template. Once you finish this test, you will have a lesson's learned episode. Rather than reinvent the whole concept in all German cities and waste tons of money....you'd have a list of a hundred-odd features or issues that you could grasp and build a structure around.
It's a massive amount of funding to take this to the top level, and I just don't see the public blessing this kind of event when they figure out the actual cost. There's just no such thing as a 'free ticket'. Someone is going to pay for all of this infrastructure and daily cost.
The crisis driving this, is the threat by major cities in Germany to halt or forbid entry of diesel cars. In some ways, it's a major crisis and threatens several million cars....probably bringing a massive amount of anger and frustration to the general public. So to counter the diesel car crisis....the Merkel-led government is now discussing the idea of free public transportation. You would drive up to the city limits, park, and the bus/tram network would carry you freely to work. If you lived in the city itself, it'd all be free transportation.
So the first step that the government did...in a way of stalling this whole discussion....was to send up a letter to the EU to request 'permission' to provide such a service. This whole thing is designed as a test, and would be limited in the initial stage to five German cities:
1. Mannheim, population: 300,000. They actually have a fairly decent light-rail system, and the city lies along major autobahns.
2. Bonn, population 315,000.
3. Essen, population: 575,000.
4. Herrenberg, population: 31,000. Small town about 30 minutes outside of Stuttgart. No tram or light-rail.
5. Reutlingen: Population: 113,000. Significant city to the south of Germany.
If you look over the five, three have significant public traffic daily, and you would be bumping up the regional capability to handle probably twice the number of daily passengers.
Why the letter? Well....the EU is in a position of a threat to Germany. There's been a clean air issue brewing for more than a decade, and Germany has politically avoided the public discussion. This is one of the amazing stories that public news has avoided for the most part. So now, the German government wants the EU to back off on the threat of a court-episode, and just accept free transportation as the solution.
If the EU says no, and continues on? Well....it'd be in a EU court and Germany likely loses. Then there would be daily fines. No one says much over how much, but I'd take a guess that a million Euro a day would be the minimum (per day).
What happens now? The EU has to view this in terms of opening up a can of worms across all of the EU. If Germany offers free transportation, the EU court system might view this as the big solution and push everyone toward this.
Meanwhile, it buys time.
Let's be honest....once you start the test....there will have to be a team in each city which evaluates what to add, request the additional funding, buy, build, and evaluate success.
How long will the 'test' run? I would take a guess that you could be looking at five to eight years.
First, you'd have to go and determine where to building parking lots for cars on the outer boundary of cities. Then you'd have to have light-rail or bus networks that would transport you into the city itself. Additional capacity? In the case of Mannheim, you'd have to probably double the number of trams running around the city.
Second, the infrastructure money. Well....just for the test, I would take a wild guess that we are talking about a minimum of five billion Euro. I'm also guessing that Merkel hasn't been told the real cost and the whole crew will be shocked at the substantial amount that it would take to make a successful test.
Third, just how far will you take this? It's not just for free tickets for Germans, but for anyone visiting the country, or staying briefly. Will it include railway tickets from one major city to another? I kinda doubt that. There has to be a limit to the interior of cities.
Fourth, and the more curious aspect....a template. Once you finish this test, you will have a lesson's learned episode. Rather than reinvent the whole concept in all German cities and waste tons of money....you'd have a list of a hundred-odd features or issues that you could grasp and build a structure around.
It's a massive amount of funding to take this to the top level, and I just don't see the public blessing this kind of event when they figure out the actual cost. There's just no such thing as a 'free ticket'. Someone is going to pay for all of this infrastructure and daily cost.
Mainz Parade
Yesterday was a holiday in Mainz....Fasching. Several hundred-thousand folks showed up for the big Rosemontag Parade.Generally, folks start to already be there around 6AM....getting their floats in the final stage for the parade. By 9Am....folks start to show up on the streets, and about a quarter of them are already sipping alcohol or beer. I know, it's a bit early, but folks in Mainz are that way.
Around 11:11 AM, the parade officially starts, running through roughly two miles. From beginning to end....it'll take roughly five to six hours. All the while....booze being consumed.
190 of the cases that the cops handled were teenagers or juveniles
The 2nd picture you see is around by the Bahnhof, around 10:30 AM, and a couple of the college students engaged in a bowling type game where you need to consume an entire beer if you knock the ball over. Luckily, each kid had a six-pack of beer to start with. They were finished with the beer game in roughly thirty minutes (figure six each).
The third picture? These were two gentlemen who appeared to have consumed a fair amount by 11:30 and were basically holding each other up while walking down the street.I stood and viewed the number of ambulance crews and medical folks in the background. I would guess that at least three-hundred folks were there to handle emergency situations. Extreme drunkenness is simply one of their jobs to handle. I felt sorry for the medical folks.
Security? The city and state brought out a lot of cops to ensure the safe nature of the parade.
The curious thing is that the cops report at least fifteen folks that they had to go and arrest, and they were confrontational to the cops.....meaning they were going to resist arrest. That stupidity usually gets you some serious judgement time with the court-system, and you can imagine telling the judge that you just don't remember much because you were almost passed out.
I stood around and watched this for about 2.5 hours, and then said enough. It was fairly chilly, and I was probably watching the drunks....more than the parade.
Nahles Not Becoming SPD Party Chief?
It's a bit of a shock in the German news today as things unfold from Friday's announcement that Martin Schulz would not become the Foreign Minister, and the strong hint that Andrea Nahles would step up to become the new Party Chief.
Numerous SPD Party members are suggesting a total rebuild of the party, and not supporting Andrea Nahles for the chief position.
If Nahles doesn't get the job? I would have my doubts that the coalition agreement to be voted upon by the 460,000 SPD members on 3 March...will FAIL. The party is heading toward a situation where it's divided and things are in a fluid state.
How did it get this bad? I lay the blame at three key factors:
1. There are essentially three groups of the SPD voters. The first are the guys over fifty years old, and chiefly concerned about taxes and pensions. The second group are tied to special agenda items that have nothing to do with taxes and pensions, but social behavior and trendy subjects. Then you have the third group who are mostly between the ages of eighteen and twenty-five....who are hyped up on pro-asylum, pro-environment, and pro-social causes. These three groups are not mixing well within the SPD Party anymore.
2. The chief supporter of the old SPD (going back to the 70s to 90s)....was the working-class German. If you asked most of these people today....what the party has done for them in the past five years....they just start laughing because they haven't seen much. Oh, there's lots to talk about on environmentalism and pro-asylum, but that's not what common working-class Germans want to discuss.
3. Finally, you come to smaller parties who seem to offer more than what the SPD can offer. The Greens, the FDP, and the Linke Party all have more to offer.
The odds that Nahles will not become the party chief? On Friday, I would have suggested less than a ten-percent chance that she'd fail in this political maneuver. Right now? I would suggest it's getting closer to a one-in-three chance that she will fail to get the job.
Pretty odd change of events.
Numerous SPD Party members are suggesting a total rebuild of the party, and not supporting Andrea Nahles for the chief position.
If Nahles doesn't get the job? I would have my doubts that the coalition agreement to be voted upon by the 460,000 SPD members on 3 March...will FAIL. The party is heading toward a situation where it's divided and things are in a fluid state.
How did it get this bad? I lay the blame at three key factors:
1. There are essentially three groups of the SPD voters. The first are the guys over fifty years old, and chiefly concerned about taxes and pensions. The second group are tied to special agenda items that have nothing to do with taxes and pensions, but social behavior and trendy subjects. Then you have the third group who are mostly between the ages of eighteen and twenty-five....who are hyped up on pro-asylum, pro-environment, and pro-social causes. These three groups are not mixing well within the SPD Party anymore.
2. The chief supporter of the old SPD (going back to the 70s to 90s)....was the working-class German. If you asked most of these people today....what the party has done for them in the past five years....they just start laughing because they haven't seen much. Oh, there's lots to talk about on environmentalism and pro-asylum, but that's not what common working-class Germans want to discuss.
3. Finally, you come to smaller parties who seem to offer more than what the SPD can offer. The Greens, the FDP, and the Linke Party all have more to offer.
The odds that Nahles will not become the party chief? On Friday, I would have suggested less than a ten-percent chance that she'd fail in this political maneuver. Right now? I would suggest it's getting closer to a one-in-three chance that she will fail to get the job.
Pretty odd change of events.
The Free Ride Story
There is a fairly long piece by Focus (the German news magazine) today....which chats to the subject that the German federal government MIGHT be willing to offer FREE PUBLIC transportation to reduce the number of vehicles within urban areas.
Now, you should not get all hyped up and thinking that this will mean free rides for everyone.
You have to remember why this topic is coming up. Urban areas (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, etc) are all reviewing the rules to stop diesel cars from entering their city limits. It's believed by the end of 2018....some cities will have legal direction on this and then stop diesel owners from entering their areas.
The discussed federal solution would be that the Berlin federal folks would support counties and cities who want to introduce free rides (meaning bus and rail)....within city limits.
Who would pay for this? Naturally, you'd sit and pause over this because SOMEONE must pay for the free rides. The taxpayer? Well.....yeah.
Nationwide, it's estimated that roughly 12 billion Euro are required each year to fund metropolitan networks (both bus and rail). Half of that comes from ticket sales, and the other half via the federal government. To some extent, you would be correct to say that travel is already subsidized, at least half-way.
A true solution?
I sat and paused over this idea. If you said that no diesel cars could enter Frankfurt city limits....you'd be talking about at least 100,000 vehicles....maybe even going up to 200,000 vehicles....per day. So you'd have to have parking established on the outer boundary of the city. You can figure a minimum of twenty massive parking lots. Then you'd have to add the capability between 7AM and 9AM....to haul an extra 100,000 folks minimum....maybe an extra 200,000 folks. In effect, I would suggest doubling the whole railway network within Frankfurt for morning and evening rush-hours.
How many more trains to be added? Just in Frankfurt alone, you'd be talking about twenty minimum. More buses? Yes. Probably over a hundred additional buses to make something like this work.
All free? Well, then you'd come to the parking situation and ask....will parking be free? Right now....NO. You pay some small weekly or monthly fee for your car. You can figure that parking will be some fee-based deal.
Public acceptance? Once they figure out that they have ante up another couple hundred a year in taxation...it'll become a harsh reality and some Germans will ask about the future.
Could the nation cover this cost factor? I don't think you'd be talking about 12 lousy billion Euro. I would suggest the amount would double up to around 20-to-24 billion Euro per year....easily.
Taxation? You'd have to invent another tax and let everyone participate in this deal....figure at least 500 Euro per year....per adult minimum. I would have doubts that an extra 500 Euro on taxation would be enough.
Inventing a bigger mess? If you've ever traveled in rush-hour in Hamburg or Frankfurt....you tend to notice the system really maxed out, as things are today. So suggesting another one-third more travelers....maybe even 50-percent more travelers? It just makes me wonder what idiot would dream up a scheme like this? If you had twenty years and built other networks....light-rail lines....engineered great off-ramps for parking, and massive stations on the outskirts of cities....maybe this would all work. But I have my doubts that you could whip this up in a year or two.
A bigger mess coming? Yes.
Now, you should not get all hyped up and thinking that this will mean free rides for everyone.
You have to remember why this topic is coming up. Urban areas (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, etc) are all reviewing the rules to stop diesel cars from entering their city limits. It's believed by the end of 2018....some cities will have legal direction on this and then stop diesel owners from entering their areas.
The discussed federal solution would be that the Berlin federal folks would support counties and cities who want to introduce free rides (meaning bus and rail)....within city limits.
Who would pay for this? Naturally, you'd sit and pause over this because SOMEONE must pay for the free rides. The taxpayer? Well.....yeah.
Nationwide, it's estimated that roughly 12 billion Euro are required each year to fund metropolitan networks (both bus and rail). Half of that comes from ticket sales, and the other half via the federal government. To some extent, you would be correct to say that travel is already subsidized, at least half-way.
A true solution?
I sat and paused over this idea. If you said that no diesel cars could enter Frankfurt city limits....you'd be talking about at least 100,000 vehicles....maybe even going up to 200,000 vehicles....per day. So you'd have to have parking established on the outer boundary of the city. You can figure a minimum of twenty massive parking lots. Then you'd have to add the capability between 7AM and 9AM....to haul an extra 100,000 folks minimum....maybe an extra 200,000 folks. In effect, I would suggest doubling the whole railway network within Frankfurt for morning and evening rush-hours.
How many more trains to be added? Just in Frankfurt alone, you'd be talking about twenty minimum. More buses? Yes. Probably over a hundred additional buses to make something like this work.
All free? Well, then you'd come to the parking situation and ask....will parking be free? Right now....NO. You pay some small weekly or monthly fee for your car. You can figure that parking will be some fee-based deal.
Public acceptance? Once they figure out that they have ante up another couple hundred a year in taxation...it'll become a harsh reality and some Germans will ask about the future.
Could the nation cover this cost factor? I don't think you'd be talking about 12 lousy billion Euro. I would suggest the amount would double up to around 20-to-24 billion Euro per year....easily.
Taxation? You'd have to invent another tax and let everyone participate in this deal....figure at least 500 Euro per year....per adult minimum. I would have doubts that an extra 500 Euro on taxation would be enough.
Inventing a bigger mess? If you've ever traveled in rush-hour in Hamburg or Frankfurt....you tend to notice the system really maxed out, as things are today. So suggesting another one-third more travelers....maybe even 50-percent more travelers? It just makes me wonder what idiot would dream up a scheme like this? If you had twenty years and built other networks....light-rail lines....engineered great off-ramps for parking, and massive stations on the outskirts of cities....maybe this would all work. But I have my doubts that you could whip this up in a year or two.
A bigger mess coming? Yes.
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