Home-Office Chatter

 This week in Germany, the Minister of Labor (Heil, SPD) brought up this new agenda item for discussion.  

Since Covid-19 has been around....a fair number of Germans have done home-office routines.  The Ministry of Labor wants to take this idea to the next level....even after Covid-19 goes away....they'd like the option of 24 days a year of home-office to exist....where possible.

So, you sit and ponder upon this.

No one can say with any factual data....how many Germans actually did home-office since March.  There are estimates, but it's nearly impossible to find statistical data that you can trust.

Then you come to the issue.....if you lined up the 300 top career fields or job situations....how many really fit into home-office routines?  Maybe ten-percent?  Maybe twenty-five percent?

This is like the idea of teaching via zoom, with the kids at home, and the teacher trying to run a class via home-office strategy.  Most will now say that it marginally works and is not a great long-term idea.

Even in the case of my wife (a German office-worker)....she'd say that a day a week might work but it's only productive if the home environment is quiet and without bothersome details.  

Trying to mandate the 24 days?  That's likely to be a doomed idea.  Maybe offering a tax credit for companies and people....if they spent money on things to make it successful....this might be the full extent of what the govenrnment could do.  

Update: 10 Oct 2020.  I noted last night....ARD said in a factual statement that around 13-million Germans did 'some' home-office days since day one.  I don't have any reason to doubt the number.  But it's curious about the other 70-odd million residents of the country.....they weren't able or capable of doing home-office.  

Kryptonite for the AfD Party

 Yesterday, off the ARTE-channel here in Germany, they ran a documentary piece which discussed eastern Germany, current political trends, and the disheartening fact that that the AfD is 'big-deal' in regional politics.  For those who aren't into German parties...the AfD is primarily a a party which is anti-migration and anti-asylum.  To be blunt, it's the only party with that position.  

In most western German states....the AfD can marginally count on 8-to-12 percent of the vote in a state/national election.  In several eastern German states....they can hustle up 15-to-25 percent of the vote.  In doing so, they really downsize the types of coalition governments possible, and make create a fairly marginal political scene.  

As for me on the ARTE-channel?  Well....I admit....I probably only watch it five to eight hours a year, and it's got to be a fairly limited offering off the other dozen-odd German channels for me to check out their offerings.

In general, journalists and hyped-up political figures in Germany are furious at the growth and attraction of the AfD Party.  It shouldn't exist....at least in their mind.

So I'm going to offer some advice on how to dissolve the AfD Party, and brings things back to a reality:

1.  Sit down and admit that the EU will never develop a asylum/immigration or migration policy.  I know that this is some weird belief that the EU will make a policy and resolve the problem without the Germans having to admit they 'screwed-up'....but it'll never happen.

2.  Gather some PhD guys and instruct them to build a formula....where the national and state unemployment rates of Germany, along with affordable housing rates, educational factors, and integration programs are all figured up.  They should have two simple views in the end.....X-number of 'talented' asylum-seekers and X-number of war-time refugees will enter.  Only guessing here, but it'll be some number like 250,000 to 350,000 (based on the 83-million resident number).

In the same fashion, you note areas of Germany with high unemployment and cap the number of migrants per year moving into that region.  You also make a cap for periods of high unemployment in Germany....it makes no sense to admit 100,000 migrants when your unemployment rate is near 8-percent.  

3.  Then you make a hard rule that you can only apply for asylum or immigration via a German embassy outside of Germany.  You also make a hard rule about an official ID being displayed and used in the process.  No official ID?  No approval for paperwork.  

4.  Once the individual or family apply for the entry-ticket.....once approved, you provide a one-way ticket (free of charge) to fly into Frankfurt.  You (the government) sign up for 18 months of sponsorship.  At the end of that period....no government assistance for a minimum of two years.  If the guy fails or drifts off?  It's not your responsibility to do anything.  The guy has to sign a document upon arriving that if this entry is a 'failure'....he will return to his original country.  Again, another free airline ticket....courtesy of the German people.

5.  Anyone who fits into this trial period....as a migrant and gets arrested for any serious crime (like drug trafficking or assault or rape)....gets a review by a judge who only handles such asylum or migrant cases.  If they can't control their emotions or behavior....you just let them know that this is not going to work, and let them return to the home-country.  If the guy isn't cooperative, set up a compound with reduced living standards and let him linger there until his behavior improves or he asks for a ticket back to the old country.  

6.  After five years in Germany and demonstrated success.....you offer up citizenship.  Clean record, success at life...ought to easily lead to this accomplishment in the end.  

7.  Now you turn to the public TV journalists and let them know that you are thinking about downsizing the yearly tax, and if they get into some hyped-up 'gotta-save-the-migrants' theme, then the tax downsizing will come sooner, than later.  Yeah, it's a bluff....but basically, they need to report news and not be a theater 'unit' searching for people to save.

8.  Somewhere in this mix....you admit that affordable housing in major cities like Hamburg, Frankfurt, or Essen....is crap.  There's no reason to ship another 3,000 refugees into Frankfurt, if real affordable housing doesn't exist.  So either get to resolving this issue, or make a rule that new migrants/immigrants can't be placed in Frankfurt-City itself.

9.  Then you turn to economic-refugees and set the practice that if they have some level of German language accomplished (say A2), and some certification or college time....they get added points, and a higher chance of acceptance.  Frankly, Germany doesn't need more burger-flippers or delivery-truck-drivers.  If you had a thousand Thai women who came up with a basic nursing certificate and a A2 language certificate....they ought to be at the head of the line for entry.

All of these processes would lead in a very quick fashion to the AfD Party not having much to stomp their feet upon or getting the public excited.  The blunt truth is that Germany has tried walking around with zero-policy for migration for the past seven years, under Chancellor Merkel.  The gain here?  A AfD Party which can get 12-to-14 percent of national votes in an election....because the public thinks the current process is screwed-up.  

This is not rocket-science.  You could easily dissolve the public feeling of failure over migration in easy and simple steps.  

'Dry' Berlin?

 Well....commentary from N-TV this morning....coming from the Health Minister of Berlin-City itself is suggesting a strategy of banning all booze (beer, wine, etc) from cafes, pubs and restaurants...from 11 PM to 6 AM....to battle Covid-19 infections.

The basic idea?  Some seem to think that if you consume booze late at night....you get all dopey and screw-up the social distancing business.  Factual data?  Well....NONE.

The odds of this being passed by the Berlin state council?  Unknown.

In most cases....people would go to carrying booze flasks or six-packs of beer around, and just drink in parks or at benches.  The other option....naturally, just haul enough weed around to get dopey.  

The problem with this 'dry' attitude....you just infuriate a certain element of society who usually drink and party after 11 PM, and it's politically dangerous to make a bigger mess of what you already have currently.  

Some Train Advice

Every couple of years....I offer a essay on train advice.

I'm a German train guy......I'll use the train system whenever possible.  With that in mind.....I'll offer some advice:

1.  Use Bahn.de  to plan out a trip.  Excellent program and it's simple.

2.  German trains tend to run on time.  However, on various occasions.....like the heat of summer or snow periods in the winter.....they run behind schedule.  If you've got a tight train schedule and have to switch trains at some point.....have a plan B ready if you arrive late and miss your connection.  Typically, most trains run every hour, or every other hour.

3.  Even if they say they've got air-conditioned cars in the midst of a July heatwave.....the humble truth is that it's NOT the same level of air-conditioning as you might expect in the states.  Carry a bottle of water with you.....hydrate....and try to travel in the morning hours (getting to your destination by noon).  The worst period of a normal hot day on a German train is 1PM to 4PM.

4.  Most city bahnhofs.....towns of 10,000 or larger.....have a bakery/coffee shop within the station.  If it's a town of 100,000 or larger....it's probably got at least one or two restaurants, a flower shop, a tobacco shop, a newsprint shop, and a pub.

5.  Travel light.  If you tend to drag two big suitcases around with you on trips.....train travel isn't the way for you to go.

6.  Don't lose your ticket.  You can expect at least one ticket check on an average three-hour trip.

7.  Making a six-hour trip and changing trains at least once?  If planning ahead of time....reserve your seat on both cars.  If you are planning the trip only 48 hours ahead of time.....forget about reservations....it's way too late.  Getting on a crowded train and finding NO seats is a burden.

8.  First-class travel?  For ninety-five percent of trips.....regular travel is adequate.  I might advocate first-class seats if it's a crowded train (especially during holiday periods) or it's special occasion.  You pay roughly twenty to thirty percent more for first-class travel.

9.  Jumping to a second train as part of your trip?  You'd best allow for fifteen minutes minimum between trains.  In Frankfurt, if you have to go from the last ramp to the first ramp.....it's going to take a minimum of fifteen minutes walking to make the trip.

10.  Plan means an evening arrival?  Make hotel reservations ahead of time and know precisely what the plan or agenda is.  You don't want to stand around some train stations (Frankfurt for example) at ten PM and wonder about where such-and-such hotel is located.  Too many nuts or dopers make this idea stupid.

Polling on Corona

 Public TV in Germany (ARD) went out and polled Germans on the Corona ban rules.  So, some surprises stood out.

First, on the topic of forcing people to wear masks in all public areas (on the streets or outdoor shopping districts)....roughly two-thirds of society agreed to the idea.  But almost one-third of German society said 'no'.

Second, around three-quarters of German society felt that the ban rules should all line up and be a federal thing...and NOT a state-by-state decision.  

Third, on the question of national solidarity....that everyone abide by the rules established...it was pretty close to 92-percent who said 'yes'.  

Fourth, about half of all Germans now worry about long-term (permanent) damage by the virus.  

The problem with polling....you could have some theme or message come out, and in a matter of just a week....suddenly have some public perception of something existing, without a lot of factual data or reliable data supporting the message.  In simple terms....the herd moves where the grass is greener. 

Toss in the fact that the sixteen German states are not about to give up power over what they perceive as a state-decision.  In simple terms, there's only so much they will allow the federal government in Berlin to dictate.

The Different German State

 Starting on 1 November.....in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt....dance-clubs and discos will finally re-open.  As far as I know....the only state that is going to that degree.

So some other things that you might want to know about Saxony-Anhalt in this Corona period.

According to the locals....almost no one wears masks within train stations or interior mall areas.  

Fines for non-mask wearers?  Zero.  Far as I know....the only state without a fine system.

Planning a wedding within the state?  Unlike the other fifteen states....you can still plan one for 500 attendees in Saxony-Anhalt.  

Another Covid Policy Under Discussion

 Currently, if you (as a German) leave the country and go to a Covid-19 high-risk country/region.....you are required (mandated) to go into quarantine in Germany upon return....with the exception that you go and get tested.

Well....this morning, the Bundestag admitted that they are reviewing the idea that if you go on holiday/vacation within Germany itself....to a region with high-risk (a German high risk area)....then you could be forced to quarantine under that circumstance.

Focus brought this up in the AM.

Right now today, there are four identified areas in Germany with the high-risk 'note'.

Infuriating a bunch of people?  I would suggest that half the population are not going to be happy about this national policy, and it'll be near impossible to get the sixteen states to go along with this idea.

On the one positive side, we are out of the summer vacation period.  But a fair number of folks...starting in December....would go on weekend trips for the holidays, and do ski-weekends.  If you throw this policy into the works.....with a dozen areas of the country identified as 'high-risk'.....it'll get pretty chaotic.

The fact that you might live in a high-risk noted area, and drive 15 kilometers over for work, in a non-risk area?  Well....that would be the obvious next step with stupid decision making and creating a second whole mess for people to get through the system.  

The Story of a Autobahn (A49)

 Decades ago.....going back to the 1970s....there was chatter in the German state of Hessen of building this simple and short autobahn of 87 km (57 miles)....going from Kassel in the north part of Hessen, down through the heart of the state, and somewhere around Homburg and A5.  There, it would end. 

So the first few kilometers were simple and just a matter of acquiring farmland. 

Somewhere around Neuental....it stopped (45 km or 25 miles).  For three decades, it's been halted at this point.  

They need about 32 km of paved surface to complete the job.  

What happened? Environmentalists (even in the old West German days) stepped in and did delay after delay.

The court system stood up in the past year and finally said 'enough'....the studies have been completed and there's no delay that can be found.

Well...over the past week, the environmentalists have turned out in force in this region affected.....around the Dannenroder Forest area.  It'd be best described as a fairly thick forested area.

Police involved?  Yesterday....200 police showed up and cleared enough off the property to start the first 300-odd meters of tree-clearing.  

Yeah, it's mostly a pain at this point for the police....they have people up in the trees and it requires a fair amount of effort to clear those folks out....before the trees can be cut.  

If you watch the nightly news off HR (regional public TV)....it's the number one topic and heavily covered.

The necessity of this piece of road?  Even back in the 1970s and 1980s....it was obvious that a lot of commercial traffic was using the other autobahn (A7).  From the Green prospective....you've already got one autobahn in the region....you don't need more.

The curious part of this story is that every single day for probably the next month.....to enable the tree-cutting crews to make their way through the forest....the police have to come out in numbers (away from their normal duty), and play 'pick-up-the-protestor' to enable the crews to continue on.  You can figure at least the first half of each day...is just police action on getting people out of the trees.

It's part of the police duty and you have to allow some form of protest, but all this extra effort, in attempting not to harm the poor kid hooked 20 meters up in a tree....and getting him safely on the ground....dissolves a bit of patience on the part of the policemen.

The odds of the Autobahn being done in three or four years?  I'd give it less than a 20-percent chance.  Other delays will occur....even after the trees are finally cut.  The whole thing is like a magnet now, for demonstrations.